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Visits to brick-and-mortar retail and dining chains fell slightly in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps widened to 0.5% for retail while dining visits dropped 1.4% below Q1 2024 levels. And while some of the dip may be due to Q1 2025 having one day less than 2024’s longer February, the decline could also signal a softening of consumer sentiment.
At the same time, the decrease in visits was extremely minor. In the retail space especially, YoY visits were technically negative, but at -0.5% this year’s Q1 visitation trends remained essentially on par with last year’s traffic numbers. The muted dip in visits during this period of economic uncertainty is likely due to the resilience of the U.S. consumer and to the range of budget-friendly retail and dining segments that provide options to even the most price conscious consumers.
Although overall dining visits declined in Q1, some budget-friendly options did experience visit growth. Visits to coffee chains were up 1.7% in Q1 2025, and fast casual and QSR concepts – that operate at a somewhat higher price point – saw a minor traffic drop of 1.4% YoY. Meanwhile, traffic to full-service restaurants declined 3.0% YoY.
These visitation patterns suggest that consumers are still willing to spend on budget-friendly treats, such as a specialty coffee or pastry, and – to a lesser extent – slightly pricier fast-food or fast-casual entrees. But many may be cutting back on meals at sit-down restaurants and redirecting their spending towards more affordable indulgences.
Although overall retail visits remained relatively close to Q1 2024 levels, traffic declined to several essential retail categories – including superstores, gas stations & convenience stores, and drugstores & pharmacies. Retailers in these categories also carry many non-essential items, so the dip in visitation may be due to reduced discretionary spending within those categories.
Meanwhile, visits to the grocery category increased 0.9% relative to last year following three straight quarters of YoY visit growth, and traffic to discount & dollar stores stabilized following several years of rapid growth. This suggests that the competitive pressure from discount & dollar stores on traditional grocery formats may be abating and highlights grocery's ability to withstand challenges in the evolving retail landscape.
Consumers’ budgetary concerns are also evident in the recent performance of the various apparel segments. Off-price continued leading the apparel pack with Q1 2025 visits up 3.2% YoY, while every other apparel segment analyzed experienced a dip in traffic. Sportswear & athleisure in particular – which saw visits surge over the pandemic – saw visits decline for the fourth quarter in a row.
The auto retail space also revealed consumers' relatively thrifty preferences over this past quarter. While visits to auto parts shops & service chains increased 2.5% YoY in Q1 2025, visits to car dealerships fell 4.1% – suggesting that consumers are bringing in their cars for repairs rather than trading them in for newer vehicles.
Q1 2025’s retail and dining visitation patterns suggest that today’s consumer continues to be highly price conscious, with the budget-friendly segment coming out ahead in almost every category analyzed. Retailers and dining concepts who can cater to consumer’s value orientation will likely come out ahead in this increasingly competitive market.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Traffic to Albertsons banners has increased steadily over the past couple of years, with visits still significantly higher (10.5%) than in pre-pandemic 2019. So while visits did dip slightly relative to 2023 (-1.1%) – likely due to stabilization following the robust growth of recent years – the minimal decline highlights Albertsons’ capacity to maintain strong foot traffic despite a challenging economic environment.
Zooming into quarterly-level data also highlights Albertsons’ strength. After narrowing its year-over-year (YoY) visit gap from -2.5% in Q2 2024 to -0.9% in Q3 and Q4 2024, Q1 2025 visits are now level with Q1 2024 traffic – suggesting that Albertsons’ visits have indeed stabilized, with the company holding on the gains of the past couple of years.
The company’s resilience in the face of the growing competition from discount & dollar stores is likely contributing to Albertsons’ strength.
Inflation and high prices have had a major impact on grocery shopping behavior in recent years, with discount stores emerging as significant players in the grocery market. Indeed, between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits to the discount & dollar category out of total grocery and discount & dollar store visits increased from 23.4% to 25.5% – likely due to some shoppers favoring more affordable grocery channels over traditional supermarkets. Meanwhile, grocery’s relative visit share decreased, with traffic to the grocery category (excluding Albertsons banners) falling from 67.8% in 2019 to 66.0% in 2024. But Albertsons’ relative visit share remained largely stable during this period – suggesting that, even as budget-conscious consumers gravitate towards discount stores, Albertsons has managed to retain its customer base.
Albertsons, like other grocery stores, has seen an increase in short visits in recent years, leading to shorter average dwell time. Between 2019 and 2024, the average length of stay across Albertsons brands dropped from 22.7 minutes to 21.6 minutes.
The drop in visit duration may be partially attributed to the growing segment of consumers who prefer the convenience of picking up their groceries via lockers or curbside, or who are supplementing their online orders with quick trips in-store. And as Albertsons has invested in curbside pickup, delivery, and online shopping options across a number of its banners, the company is well positioned to meet the demand for flexibility and efficiency in the grocery space.
Diving into some of Albertsons’ biggest brands reveals that visits to most banners stayed relatively close to 2023 levels, with YoY traffic trends ranging from -2.7% to +2.9%. While banners like Albertsons, Safeway, and VONS saw slightly fewer visits in 2024 compared to 2023, Jewel-Osco and Shaw's Supermarket enjoyed YoY visit growth.
Albertsons is making the best of a challenging economic environment, keeping visits close to previous levels and maintaining its share of the grocery visit pie.
Will the grocery banner see visit growth into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for more up-to-date grocery retail insights.
While the U.S. government has currently partially paused its consideration of reciprocal tariffs on global imports, retailers are still bracing for the possibility of future enactment and potential ripple effects across the industry of the tariffs still in place. From rising supply chain costs to shifts in consumer behavior, tariffs have the potential to impact everything from product pricing to in-store foot traffic. And in an environment where consumers remain highly price-sensitive and economic uncertainty persists, understanding how tariffs could influence retail visitation is critical. While we won’t know the full impact until the tariffs are implemented and impacted retailers adjust, Placer.ai visitation data can help evaluate how the proposed tariffs may be shaping consumer patterns and what that might mean for retailers moving forward.
When new regulations like tariffs are introduced, they often create both short-term and long-term effects. In the short term, consumers remain highly price-sensitive following prolonged inflation in key areas such as food, rent, and healthcare. As a result, our visitation data suggests that some consumers acted early to avoid potential price increases tied to tariff implementation. While visit trends for the week of March 24–30, 2025 were also influenced by the timing of Easter in 2024 (which fell on March 31), Placer.ai data indicates a possible pull forward in demand during the weeks leading up to the expected implementation of the latest tariffs—particularly at “stock-up” retailers like warehouse clubs. In fact, warehouse clubs recorded their strongest year-over-year visitation week of 2025 on the week of March 24-30th, while superstores and grocery stores saw declines, likely due to comparisons to strong performance during the same Easter week in the previous year.
Looking at more discretionary retail categories, we also see evidence that consumers were trying to get ahead of tariff implementation. Our data indicates that retailers selling products sourced from countries potentially facing higher tariffs experienced stronger year-over-year visitation trends. The timing of Easter 2024 likely contributed to this boost as well—many of these retailers were closed or operating with reduced hours during that week last year. Categories such as home improvement, electronics, luxury department stores, apparel and accessories, and clothing all saw notable year-over-year visitation increases for the week of March 24–30, 2025, as shown below.
While many uncertainties remain around tariff implementation, consumers are likely to increasingly gravitate toward retailers that offer bulk purchasing, strong private label alternatives, and everyday low prices—areas where warehouse clubs and discount grocers with robust private label assortments excel. Similarly, national restaurant chains with streamlined operations, diversified global supply chains, and the ability to scale value-driven promotions will hold a competitive edge. Off-price retailers and thrift stores offering secondhand and resale items may also benefit, appealing to deal-seeking consumers. These types of retailers are often better positioned to absorb rising costs and maintain affordability, making them attractive options in an increasingly inflation-sensitive environment.
Consumer electronics, apparel, luxury goods, and beverage alcohol retailers may be disproportionately affected by potential tariffs due to their heavy reliance on imported products and limited pricing flexibility. Many electronics, luxury, and apparel items are sourced from countries subject to implemented or potential tariffs, which could significantly increase costs in categories already operating with tight margins. For beverage alcohol retailers, tariffs on imported wine, spirits, and specialty ingredients could lead to supply chain disruptions and higher prices, particularly for premium or niche products. In these segments, passing additional costs on to consumers may be challenging in an environment where shoppers remain highly price-sensitive, potentially resulting in decreased demand, inventory issues, and increased reliance on promotional strategies.
As the U.S. moves closer to implementing new tariffs, retailers across categories must prepare for both immediate and long-term impacts. From early signs of stock-up behavior at warehouse clubs to shifting visitation patterns in discretionary categories like apparel and electronics, consumer response is already taking shape. While value-focused retailers and those with operational agility may be better positioned to weather the storm, others – particularly those reliant on imported goods – could face heightened challenges. In this evolving landscape, visitation data can help to assess consumer behavior in real time, helping retailers adapt strategies and remain competitive as the full effects of tariff policies unfold.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
A Minecraft Movie shattered box office predictions with a $162.75 million opening, as eager fans – some tossing popcorn or yelling “chicken jockey” – flocked to theaters nationwide.
On the weekend of A Minecraft Movie’s release (Friday, April 4th to Sunday, April 6th), leading cinema chains AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark enjoyed a 92.6% visit boost compared to an average weekend during the past 12 months. Only Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine drew bigger crowds.
And examining daily cinema visit fluctuations this year shows that visits to cinemas peaked on Saturday, April 5th, when foot traffic surged 336.7% above the year-to-date daily average.
Already dubbed “the gamer version” of 1960’s cult film The Rocky Horror Picture Show, A Minecraft Movie has become Warner Bros.’ third-biggest opening of all time. But how long will the film keep drawing crowds?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include government buildings or mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
RTO mandates seem to be everywhere. Following the federal government’s example, local governments from the City of Atlanta to the State of Texas have introduced stricter in-office requirements. And an increasing number of corporations are demanding full-time in-person work – including firms like JPMorgan, which began enforcing a five-day RTO mandate in early March.
But what does ground-level data tell us about how these new policies are affecting office attendance in practice? Did the RTO slowdown observed in January and February continue into March? Or is a new resurgence underway?
The latest data from the Placer.ai Office Index suggests that nationwide office visits may be trending upwards once again. Although March 2025 office visit levels didn’t match the peaks of October and July 2024, visits last month were only 32.2% below March 2019 levels – an improvement over March 2024.
Significantly, among months with 21 or fewer working days, March 2025 ranked as the second-busiest in-office month since the pandemic, just slightly behind October 2023 (October and July 2024 both had 22 days). So while January and February’s declining numbers hinted at a stalled market, March’s uptick suggests that lower office attendance earlier in the year may have been due to temporary factors like weather – and that the RTO may still be gaining momentum.
Diving into the data for eleven major business hubs nationwide shows New York and Miami once again at the head of the office recovery pack. Visits to NYC office buildings in March 2025 were just 11.4% below pre-pandemic (March 2019) levels – while Miami trailed by 17.3%. Meanwhile, Atlanta (-29.3%), Washington, D.C. (-30.6%), Dallas (-30.7%), and Houston (-31.0%) all outperformed the nationwide average of -32.2%. San Francisco tied in last place with Chicago, with visits 44.6% below 2019 levels.
Turning to year-over-year (YoY) data, ten of the eleven analyzed cities experienced YoY office visit growth – led by Boston, with a 10.2% uptick. Washington, D.C. also recorded strong YoY gains (9.8%) – while San Francisco continued its recent positive momentum with a 9.6% increase. Los Angeles was the only city to see a minor (-2.2%) YoY visit lag – perhaps lingering fallout from the wildfires earlier this year.
Overall, the Placer.ai Office Index points to a renewed upswing in RTO momentum, likely driven by increasingly strict mandates from governments and corporations. Though persistent post-pandemic office visit gaps point to the continued prevalence of hybrid work, March’s noticeable uptick suggests that offices may be poised to make further gains in the coming months.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
With Q1 2025 just under our belts, we dove into the data to see how quick-service and fast-casual restaurants (QSRs) fared in the year’s early months. Which chains managed to weather the headwinds – both fiscal and meteorological – that have weighed on consumer traffic in recent months? And which brands emerged as top performers?
We dove into the data to find out.
QSRs faced a challenging environment in the first part of 2025, as harsh winter weather, economic uncertainty, and heightened value competition from fast-casual chains, full-service restaurants (Chili’s, anyone?), and even grocery stores drove visits down. Overall, QSR foot traffic declined by 1.6% year over year (YoY) in Q1, with much of the drop occurring in February – when a polar vortex and the comparison to a leap-year February 2024 led to a traffic dip. By March, however, visits began to stabilize, and the segment finished out the month with foot traffic levels essentially flat YoY (-0.3%).
Still, some QSRs stood out. Rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers, for example, saw YoY gains in both overall visits and average visits per location (12.3% and 3.7%, respectively). Known for quick, quality fare – the chain’s sauces have even inspired viral tik-tok videos – Raising Cane’s fleet growth is clearly meeting robust demand.
Taco Bell also emerged as a Q1 leader, with quarterly visits rising 3.7% YoY. The brand doubled down on value with its expanded selection of Luxe Cravings Boxes. And the tex-mex giant’s limited-time Crunchwrap Slider offering – launched in early 2025 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Crunchwrap Supreme – generated plenty of buzz.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s, which launched its new McValue menu in January 2025, narrowed its visit gap to 1.0% in March – an encouraging sign as the year gets into full swing.
Fast-casual fared somewhat better, ending Q1 2025 with flat YoY visits (+0.0%). And though the segment mirrored QSR’s monthly pattern of gains in January, a dip in February, and stabilization in March, several major players posted positive Q1 results – including Chipotle (+4.6%), Panda Express (+3.8%), Jersey Mike’s Subs (+3.1%) and Qdoba Mexican Grill (+1.5%). While fleet expansion contributed to some of these increases, menu innovation – particularly well-chosen chicken and shrimp-focused limited-time offerings – likely also played a role.
In addition to these major chains, several smaller fast-casual brands enjoyed outsized visit performance in early 2025, driven by rapid expansion meeting strong demand. Dave’s Hot Chicken, capitalizing on consumers’ ongoing enthusiasm for chicken dishes, logged a remarkable 59.3% YoY visit surge in Q1 2025, and an 11.6% jump in average visits per location. Health-forward chains CAVA and sweetgreen also grew their footprints – and audiences – likely supported by the return-to-office trend and continued interest in wholesome, convenient dining options.
All told, QSR and fast-casual brands held their own in Q1 2025 – with some brands standing out through strategic value offerings, menu innovation, and expansion. How will QSRs and fast-casual chains continue to fare as 2025 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should:
1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.
2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.
3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.
4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.
5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.
6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.
2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase – instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.
For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office.
National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.
With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024.
Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.
This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.
For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.
The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.
Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.
At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.
Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance.
New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.
The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum.
Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.
To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.
For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
