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After a relatively subdued summer performance, malls rebounded sharply in October 2025, with foot traffic to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls rising significantly both year over year (YoY) and month over month (MoM). What does this mean for the upcoming holiday season? Read on to find out.
All mall formats saw clear YoY visit gains in October 2025, potentially signaling renewed consumer enthusiasm heading into the holiday season. And although indoor malls led the growth – continuing their strong performance throughout 2025 – open-air shopping centers and outlet malls also returned to positive territory after four consecutive months of declines, underscoring the breadth and strength of the October recovery.
The MoM data underscores the scale of this recovery. In October 2025, visits rose sharply compared to September 2025 – up 6.1% for Indoor Malls, 5.5% for Open-Air Shopping Centers, and 7.9% for Outlet Malls. In comparison, October 2024 saw only slight MoM increases of 0.5%, 2.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, compared to September 2024.
While the YoY data shows steady improvement in overall mall traffic, this month-over-month jump reveals a meaningful change in consumer behavior. Rather than waiting for November’s traditional start to the holiday season, shoppers appear to be hitting stores earlier and in greater numbers, making October a much more significant month for retail activity than it was last year.
The standout performance of outlet malls in particular reinforces consumer interest in value and discounts. As households remain price-sensitive, outlet centers continue to benefit from their combination of recognizable brands and lower price points.
October’s surge suggests that the 2025 holiday shopping season may be starting earlier and spreading out more evenly than in previous years. Recent research shows that many U.S. consumers plan to start their holiday shopping sooner, driven by concerns over rising prices and a desire for better product selection. Retailers are responding with expanded October promotions that pull forward demand.
At the same time, shoppers remain highly value-driven, with most saying inflation has made them more price-conscious. That dynamic likely helped fuel outlet malls’ nearly 8% MoM increase, as consumers sought recognizable brands at lower prices.
Together, these trends suggest that consumers are approaching the 2025 holiday season with more intention – shopping earlier, seeking value, and spreading spending over a longer period. For malls, that could mean a steadier flow of visits throughout Q4, rather than the sharp peaks of prior years.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Each year, Starbucks drives excitement with its seasonal launches – from PSL Day, marking the return of the popular Pumpkin Spice Latte, to Red Cup Day in November, when customers can snag a free reusable cup with any beverage purchase.
But this year, Starbucks kicked off the holiday season with an even bigger event – the launch of a $29.95 bear-shaped glass that broke the internet and sent fans into a frenzy. How did the Bearista craze impact Starbucks visitation trends – and what can we learn from its standout success?
On November 6th, the day of the Bearista launch, visits to Starbucks jumped 37.8% above the last 12 months' daily average, outpacing even the brand’s successful August PSL debut. (The Friday following the PSL launch drove a 23.1% spike in visits compared to the daily visit average over the last 12 months.) Even after the initial rush, traffic remained elevated for several days as fans hunted for remaining inventory and social media buzzed with stories of sellouts. The buzz wasn’t just big; it was lasting.
And despite its hefty price tag, the Bearista Cup drop drove a traffic boost similar to last year’s Red Cup Day boost, when the promise of a free cup drove a 40.7% surge in visits compared to an average Thursday. While the Bearista spike was slightly smaller, its momentum endured for days as excitement – and anxiety over scarcity – continued to build.
People lining up to pay $30 for a bear-shaped glass – albeit a super cute one – wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card this year. So what can we learn from the event’s smashing success?
For one thing, even in an era of trading down, consumers are still willing to splurge on items that feel special – especially those that offer a sense of belonging to a cultural moment. Value matters, but it isn’t everything.
For another, not everything needs to be free or deeply discounted to draw major crowds. The Bearista proved that creativity and emotion can rival even the most generous giveaways.
And finally, scarcity (still) sells. The hype was so intense that fights broke out at some stores and eBay resales topped $1,000 – prompting Starbucks to apologize to disappointed fans and promise more holiday merch on the way.
With Red Cup Day just around the corner, will the Bearista momentum help drive an even bigger visit spike this year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As the 2025 holiday season approaches, several retail categories are showing surprising resilience – from luxury home goods to consumer electronics and grocery. Despite a challenging economic backdrop, a few standout brands are not only holding steady but gaining meaningful traction through smart expansion, effective online-offline integration, and compelling value offerings.
Framebridge, Best Buy, and ALDI each represent a distinct facet of the retail landscape, but they have one thing in common: strong visitation trends heading into the year’s most critical shopping period.
Framebridge has emerged as one of 2025’s standout retail success stories. Over the past 12 months, visits to the brand have climbed 108.8% year over year (YoY) as it rapidly expanded its footprint and deepened its connection with customers.
This momentum stems from Framebridge’s ability to deliver an in-store experience that online competitors simply can’t replicate. Shoppers are invited to see and feel materials firsthand, while design experts offer personalized guidance and creative inspiration to craft meaningful, high-quality pieces. The result is a shopping experience that feels personal, tactile, and memorable – transforming framing from a routine purchase into something experiential and human.
In 2025, Framebridge brought this approach to new audiences with its first stores in California, marking its West Coast debut. And as the chain has expanded, its customer base has grown more affluent: the median household income in Framebridge’s captured market rose from $127.7K in early 2024 to $141.8K by mid-2025, while average household size also increased. Together, these shifts reflect rising resonance among higher-income, family-oriented consumers who value personalization, design, and craftsmanship – leaving the brand well positioned for a strong season of meaningful gift giving.
Not long ago, many analysts were skeptical about Best Buy’s prospects. The electronics retailer was viewed as vulnerable in a tightening consumer environment, with lingering doubts about its ability to stay relevant amid e-commerce dominance and fast-changing tech trends. But recent data suggests that Best Buy is regaining momentum – and that its strategy to blend digital convenience with in-store expertise is beginning to deliver results.
Between November 2024 and October 2025, foot traffic to Best Buy declined just 1.7% YoY, an impressive result given ongoing store closures and the continued expansion of its online business. At the same time, a steady rise in short in-store visits highlights the success of Best Buy’s online-to-offline integration. And though tariff uncertainty continues to loom, Best Buy’s balanced approach leaves it poised to enjoy a successful Q4 – traditionally Best Buy’s strongest period of the year.
In the grocery sector, few brands are gaining momentum like ALDI – the no-frills discount grocer that continues to attract shoppers with its focus on simplicity, savings, and quality. Over the past several years, ALDI has sustained consistent visit growth while expanding its store network. And during the same period, the brand’s share of total industry visits has risen from 4.3% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2025 to date, underscoring its growing influence as a leading value-driven grocery chain.
As “Turkey Wednesday” and the pre-Christmas grocery rush approach, ALDI appears set to capture an even greater share of holiday traffic. With strong visitation trends, expanding market reach, and a clear value proposition, the retailer stands out as one of 2025’s most resilient performers.
Framebridge, Best Buy, and ALDI demonstrate that experience, convenience, and value remain key drivers of retail performance. By focusing on what draws shoppers into stores, these brands are paving the way for a robust holiday season.
For the most up-to-date retail data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After decades as America’s quintessential diner, Denny’s is entering a new era under the ownership of TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital, and Yadav Enterprises. The move to take the company private comes at a time when the brand faces headwinds from store closures and evolving consumer habits – but also holds opportunities to reenergize its position in the family dining space.
We dove into the data to see where Denny’s stands today and what might be next for this legacy chain.
Visits to Denny’s fell 6.2% year over year (YoY) between November 2024 and October 2025, following a smaller 1.7% decline the prior year. This downturn partly reflects store closures, as Denny’s has been shuttering underperforming locations over the past two years to reposition the brand for sustainable growth.
The decline also reflects heightened competition from upscale breakfast chains such as First Watch – a challenge shared by peers like IHOP and Waffle House. Against this backdrop, Denny’s ability to limit traffic losses to single digits highlights its underlying brand resilience. And together with traffic gains at Keke’s Breakfast Café – the fast-growing concept Denny’s acquired in 2022 – this resilience provides a strong foundation for Denny’s and its new ownership group to reinvigorate the company’s success.
Visitor loyalty at Denny’s remains another bright spot. Between November 2024 and October 2025, roughly one in six Denny’s visitors returned within the same month, giving it a 17.3% average monthly loyal visitor share – the second highest among major breakfast chains after Waffle House (24.0%). This depth of loyalty shows that even with fewer restaurants, Denny’s retains a solid base of habitual diners who see it as their go-to comfort food spot. That connection also gives Denny’s – and other traditional diner concepts – a meaningful point of differentiation from more upscale competitors as the brand’s new ownership works to reenergize its business.
The data tells a clear story: Denny’s is in transition, not decline. Its loyal customer base provides stability, and its ability to limit traffic losses amid strategic rightsizing underscores real resilience. Now, as a privately held company, Denny’s has the flexibility to plan for the long term, positioning itself to evolve thoughtfully and make a comeback, one Grand Slam at a time.
For more data-driven dining analyses check out Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As the 2025 holiday season approaches, America’s most iconic shopping corridors are preparing for some of their biggest weeks of the year. From Manhattan’s 5th Avenue to Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive and Chicago’s Magnificent Mile, holiday shoppers are expected to turn out in force. We analyzed last year’s holiday visitation patterns to uncover what lies ahead for these corridors this year – and who their visitors are likely to be.
Urban shopping corridors like 5th Avenue, Rodeo Drive, and the Magnificent Mile come alive each year with holiday energy, drawing shoppers in search of gifts, experiences, and festive cheer. But while all three districts see substantial surges in foot traffic during the season, the magnitude of those gains relative to the rest of the year varies widely from one corridor to the next.
On New York City’s 5th Avenue, December stands out as the busiest month of the year by far. Rodeo Drive, by contrast, sees multiple peaks across the calendar – though its December surge consistently surpasses ones earlier in the year. The Magnificent Mile, meanwhile, typically records its highest visitation in July, with a more modest boost each December.
Zooming in on last year’s holiday foot traffic further underscores each corridor’s distinct seasonal rhythm. All three districts enjoyed notable Black Friday upticks, but their strongest gains came on other key occasions – each following its own festive cadence.
On 5th Avenue, visits surged on the three Saturdays leading up to Christmas – peaking on December 14th – as eager crowds turned out in droves to admire elaborate window displays, skate at Rockefeller Center, and soak in the city’s holiday magic. Out-of-market traffic to the Magnificent Mile, by contrast, reached a 12-month high during the November 23rd Wintrust Lights Festival, which kicked off the season with floats, marching bands, and fireworks. After that, visits eased before gradually ticking up and hitting another high on December 28th. Rodeo Drive also recorded its busiest day of the season on December 28th, surpassed only by the Concours d'Elegance on June 15th. For both the Magnificent Mile and Rodeo Drive, these late-season peaks underscore their enduring appeal for post-Christmas shopping, leisure, and celebration over the extended holiday weekend.
High-street retail corridors’ mix of luxury brands and flagship stores tends to attract affluent shoppers with money to spend. The median household income (HHI) of 5th Avenue’s out-of-market trade area during an average weekend this year stood at $118.3K, while Rodeo Drive’s reached $123.1K and the Magnificent Mile’s $104.4K.
During the holiday season, however, all three corridors saw a drop in median HHI – though each remained well above the national baseline of $79.6K. At the same time, the share of families with children increased across all three destinations. These shifts, most pronounced on 5th Avenue given its dramatic influx of visitors, highlight a seasonal pivot toward a broader, more family-driven audience than is typical throughout the rest of the year.
Still, young single adults remain a core driver of holiday foot traffic across major retail corridors. Visitors aged 25 to 34 made up an outsized share of holiday shoppers last season, though each destination drew a somewhat different mix.
“Educated Urbanites” – affluent singles earning an estimated $150K to $200K per year – were most prevalent on Rodeo Drive but were also strongly represented along 5th Avenue and the Magnificent Mile. “Young Urban Singles,” early in their careers and earning between $35K and $50K, were most concentrated on 5th Avenue, while “Young Professionals” starting white-collar or technical careers with incomes of $50K to $75K were most common on the Mag Mile.
Together, these dynamics point to another vibrant holiday season across the country’s premier retail corridors. Each destination will draw its own mix of locals, travelers, and tourists – but all are poised to see more shoppers, more experiences, and more energy lighting up America’s high streets through the end of the year.
For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Every year on Veterans Day, America’s restaurants find creative ways to honor the service of military members and their families. From free meals to fundraising efforts, many chains turn November 11th into a day of generosity and community.
And data from last year shows just how powerful that gesture can be – for both diners and the restaurants that serve them.
Eating out to honor those who served has become an American tradition. Leading chains from Applebee’s to Olive Garden and California Pizza Kitchen offer special deals to mark the occasion, drawing crowds nationwide. Last year, visits to these restaurants more than doubled compared to an average Monday, as Americans turned out to share a meal and show their appreciation.
For Applebee’s, November 11 wasn’t just a busy Monday – it was the busiest day of the entire year.
The brand’s all-day Veterans Day special allowed veterans and active-duty service members to enjoy a free entrée, creating steady traffic throughout the day. Eligible guests also received a $5 “Bounce Back” card to use in the following weeks – a small but effective way to say thank you and drive repeat visits. And while the all-day offer kept tables full, veterans and families hoping to avoid the lunchtime rush could still take advantage of the offer later in the day.
Other chains, like Golden Corral, took a different approach. The brand’s evening-only Military Appreciation Night began after 4:00 PM, offering free meals for veterans alongside a fundraising effort for Disabled American Veterans.
That timing produced a concentrated traffic surge. Visits peaked between 5:00 and 6:00 PM – likely boosted by some websites listing that as the start time – and remained well above average through the dinner hours. The data shows how a more focused event window can create strong evening momentum and a clear sense of occasion.
As November 11 approaches, full-service restaurants have another opportunity to align purpose with performance – honoring service members while strengthening ties with the communities they serve. How will this year’s Veterans Day dining trends unfold?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
