.svg)
The holiday shopping season is nearly upon us – and one category that always benefits from holiday sales is apparel. So with Q4 underway, we checked in western wear leader Boot Barn and discount footwear chain DSW (Design Shoe Warehouse, owned by Designer Brands, Inc.) to see how they fared in Q3 2024 – and what awaits them as Black Friday approaches.
Boot Barn and DSW – two very different shoe retailers – have been thriving in recent months. Since May 2024, the two chains have seen sustained monthly year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, finishing out Q3 2024 with visit upticks of 10.8% (Boot Barn) and 10.5% (DSW).
For Boot Barn in particular, Q3’s robust visit growth was at least partially driven by the chain’s aggressive expansion strategy: Between July 2023 and June 2024, Boot Barn opened some 50 new stores – and plans to open dozens more over the coming year. But foot traffic data also shows that the chain has succeeded in growing its footprint without significantly diluting traffic at existing locations. During Q3, the average number of visits to each Boot Barn location dipped just slightly below 2023 levels (2.8%), even as YoY visits to the chain surged by 10.8%.
DSW, for its part saw significant YoY visit growth throughout Q3, despite a store count that has remained relatively stable. As a store that offers shoppers access to high-quality, name-brand products at affordable prices, DSW lets consumers trade down while splurging at the same time.
DSW isn’t called a warehouse for nothing. The typical DSW store spans about 25,000 square feet (though the chain has begun experimenting with smaller formats) – compared to just 12,000 - 14,000 for Boot Barn. But despite the smaller size of Boot Barn’s locations, visitors to the western wear chain tend to spend more time in-store than visitors to DSW. Since 2022, average visitor dwell times at Boot Barn have ranged between 34.9 and 35.8 minutes, while dwell times at DSW have hovered between 32.1 and 32.8 minutes.
Customers at DSW may be more likely to know in advance what they’re looking for, making a bee-line for the discounted footwear they’ve been waiting to get their hands on. Visitors to Boot Barn, on the other hand, may spend more time browsing the brand’s wider selection of merchandise.
The difference in visitor dwell times may also be partially due to Boot Barn’s firmer positioning as a weekend destination: Over the past twelve months (October 2023 - September 2024), 59.5% of visits to Boot Barn took place between Fridays and Sundays, compared to 56.3% for DSW.
Still, visitors to both chains tend to remain in-store for more than half an hour – revealing a highly engaged customer base eager to explore the brands’ varied offerings.
With a strong Q3 2024 under their belts, what can DSW and Boot Barn expect this holiday season?
Looking at weekly fluctuations in visits to Boot Barn and DSW in 2022 and 2023 – compared to yearly weekly averages – reveals another striking difference between the two chains: Visits to Boot Barn peak in November and December each year, as customers descend upon the chain to purchase western-themed gifts for loved ones. DSW, on the other hand, sees greater visit boosts in spring, perhaps buoyed by shoppers updating their wardrobes in anticipation of warmer weather.
But zooming in on the two chains’ busiest days of the year tells a somewhat different story. Even though DSW experiences a more muted holiday shopping season, the shoe leader – like Boot Barn – draws its biggest crowds of the year on Black Friday. On November 24th, 2023, visits to DSW jumped 134.5% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period from October 2023 to September 2024 – a smaller spike than that seen by Boot Barn, but significant nonetheless.
After that, however, the chain’s visitation patterns diverged. For DSW, the next eight busiest days of the year were all Saturdays in Spring – including the Saturday before Mother’s Day (May 11th) and the Saturday before Easter (March 30th). For Boot Barn, on the other hand, December shopping days – including Super Saturday (December 23rd) – drove the biggest foot traffic spikes.
With holiday shopping just around the corner, DSW and Boot Barn both appear poised to enjoy a healthy Q4 – each in their own way. Which other footwear and apparel brands are likely to succeed this holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai's data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Holiday shopping creep is upon us once again. Though Black Friday is still several weeks away, a shorter holiday shopping window (just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas) has many retailers more eager than ever to get the ball rolling. And with Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days the focus of much consumer excitement, major brick-and-mortar players like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy have launched important fall sales events of their own.
Among these pre-holiday promotions, Target’s October Circle Week stands out as a favorite, offering millions of shoppers deep discounts across a wide range of categories, from household essentials to early holiday gifts. What can location analytics tell us about how this year’s Circle Week (October 6th-12th) resonated with consumers? We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at weekly year-over-year (YoY) visits to Target shows the power of this major sales event to get shoppers moving. Following a successful back-to-school shopping season, visits began to taper off in September. But during the week of October 7th, which included most of Circle Week, visits began to trend back upwards – perhaps signaling consumer responsiveness to early holiday discounts.
A more direct comparison between this year’s fall Target Circle Week and the one held in October 2023 (October 1st to 7th of last year) shows foot traffic up 0.7% YoY, further highlighting consumer resilience in 2024. Though the increase is a modest one, it is no small feat in a retail environment still characterized by high prices and cautious consumer sentiment.
Drilling down deeper into the data for different regions of the country paints a somewhat more nuanced picture. While in some areas of the country – particularly the Midwest and Northeast – Target Circle Week drew fewer visits this year than last (in most cases a decline of less than 3.0%), in others foot traffic increased substantially. In major southern markets like Texas and Florida, visits rose 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. South Carolina, which has emerged as a major domestic migration hotspot in recent years, saw traffic jump an impressive 12.6%. And in California, Target’s biggest market, visits increased 1.0% YoY.
But consumer behavior during Target Circle Week doesn’t just vary across regions – it also changes throughout the week-long sale period.
In both 2023 and 2024, Target’s October Circle Week started with a bang, as eager customers flocked to the chain to get first dibs on special sale items. Visits on launch day increased 5.0% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, compared to a January 1st to October 13th daily visit average. Activity then tapered off during the work week, with Monday - Thursday visits hovering just below daily visit averages for those days of the week. But on Friday and Saturday, foot traffic picked up again as shoppers utilized their time off to hit the sales.
Early October holiday sales are quickly becoming de rigueur – and an important bellwether of overall Q4 performance. Target’s successful Circle Week this fall signals consumer resilience in the face of headwinds – though engagement levels varied throughout the country. How will the all-important Q4 continue to play out for brick-and-mortar retailers this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have emerged as restaurant leaders, thriving and outperforming the wider fast-casual and quick-service restaurant (QSR) categories. How did these chains perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have become some of the most popular dining chains in the nation, each within its own respective niche: Chipotle excels at health-focused Tex-Mex meals, Wingstop serves up chicken wings and other game-day style dishes, and Shake Shack is known for its burgers and frozen custards. All three chains are leaning into growing demand for their offerings by adding new restaurants at a brisk clip. And for all three, the investment in fleet expansion is paying off, driving double-digit YoY visit growth.
Of the three chains, Wingstop enjoyed the strongest YoY growth between June and September of this year, with visits rising 16.5% to 33.5% throughout the analyzed period. Shake Shack, for its part, saw visits increase between 12.4% and 25.9%. Meanwhile, Chipotle, continuing several years of visit growth, posted 10.0% to 12.9% YoY boosts. In contrast, the overall quick-service and fast-casual restaurant segments saw much more muted performance, with QSR visits hovering at or slightly below 2023 levels and fast-casual segments seeing modest visit upticks.
One key driver behind the significant foot traffic growth for these three chains is their aggressive expansion. Wingstop, which saw the largest year-over-year (YoY) increase in foot traffic, opened some 138 new restaurants in 2024 alone, and hopes to open around 300 by year’s end. Chipotle has also been expanding rapidly, with around 52 new stores in 2024 so far and more on the way. Shake Shack, aiming to open 80 new locations this year, is similarly focused on growth.
A closer look at shifts in the average number of visits to the chains’ individual locations shows that this expansion is being met with strong demand. Chipotle and Wingstop saw monthly YoY visit-per-location increases throughout the analyzed period, while Shake Shack saw increases between June and August and experienced just a minor dip in September.
These foot traffic trends – both across the chains and at individual locations – indicate that the new stores are successfully attracting steady customer interest.
Another key factor driving success for the three chains is their pivot towards convenient takeaway options. Chipotle has focused on expanding its Chipotlane drive-thru service, while Wingstop has invested in an in-store digital platform meant to streamline the ordering process. And despite Shake Shack’s “anti fast-food” identity, the chain has also embraced drive-thrus and ordering kiosks to speed up service.
The data suggests that consumers appreciate the increased convenience of these quicker options: In Q3 2024, short visits (10 minutes or less) to Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack surged between 17.0% and 25.5% compared to Q3 2023.
For Chipotle and Shake Shack, short visits increased significantly more than extended ones in Q3, likely due in part to the brands’ intense focus on drive-thrus: Of the 271 restaurants opened by Chipotle in 2023, 238 included Chipotlanes. And since adding its first drive-thru in 2022, Shake Shack has expanded this option to more than thirty locations. For Wingstop, longer visits increased somewhat more YoY than shorter ones – but in the wake of the chain’s rapid expansion, short and long visits both increased more than 20% YoY.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack are succeeding, consistently increasing foot traffic and visits per location. Through strategic expansion and the adoption of drive-through and online ordering, these brands have firmly established their presence in the fast-casual and quick-service dining landscape.
Will the three restaurants continue to drive visit growth? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two smoothie and bowl spots that are firmly in expansion mode – Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe. What lies behind their smashing success? And what awaits them in Q4?
We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at quarterly YoY visit trends shows both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe experiencing substantial year-over-year visit growth during the first three quarters of 2024 – driven in part by their rapidly growing fleets. In Q1 2024, Playa Bowls – recently acquired by Sycamore Partners – saw a YoY foot traffic jump of 8.7%. And Tropical Smoothie Cafe, acquired by Blackstone this year, saw a YoY visit boost of 8.7%. For both chains, this positive trajectory continued, though at a more moderate pace, through Q3 2024.
What's behind the fast expansion and visit growth of these smoothie leaders? With high food prices still weighing on consumers, and health still top of mind for many, brands that provide nutritious, affordable indulgences are poised to win. Those that do so while meeting the rising demand for quick and convenient dining options are especially well-positioned to thrive.
And drilling down deeper into the data for Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe shows that the two chains’ outsize success is being fueled, in large part, by customers dropping by for a quick pick-me-up on the go, rather than a sit-down meal.
In Q3 2024, the number of short visits to Playa Bowls (i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes) increased 9.4% YoY, while longer visits increased just 4.5%. (In Q3 2024, short visits accounted for 31.2% of visits to Playa Bowls, compared with 30.3% in Q3 2023). This suggests that robust demand for off-premises dining has emerged as a major driver of growth for the brand.
A similar trend emerged at Tropical Smoothie Cafe, where nearly half of all Q3 2024 visits (48.4%) lasted less than 10 minutes – likely due to the chain’s ubiquitous drive-thrus. Short visits to Tropical Smoothie Cafe increased 6.0% YoY in Q3, while more extended visits increased 3.3%.
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe have also fueled success by marking special calendar days with limited-time promotions.
For Playa Bowls, for example, the busiest day of 2024 so far was April 6th – National Acai Day – when the juice bar offered rewards members $5 off any acai bowl. The promotion was wildly successful, fueling a remarkable 122.7% visit surge compared to a year-to-date (January to September) daily average.
For Tropical Smoothie Cafe, it was National Flip Flop Day (yes, that’s a thing) that drew major crowds this year. On May 29th, 2024, the brand marked the occasion with free Island Punch Smoothies for guests who visited participating locations while wearing flip flops. And the promotion was a hit, generating enough excitement to drive a 94.0% visit spike for the brand.
Successful harnessing of the growing demand for convenient, healthy, and affordable off-premises dining options together with unbeatable limited-time promotions have helped propel growth for both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe.
Will visits to the two chains continue to surge in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Most chains attending the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit in Denver acknowledged that this year has been difficult (unless you happen to be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen). We’ve highlighted a number of the challenges restaurant operators faced this past year, including inclement weather to start the year, the restaurant value wars of 2024, encroachment from other food retail channels, and the rising cost of operating a restaurant, which has resulted in increased bankruptcies. Our data validates this stance–our data shows that the fast casual category excluding the three aforementioned chains has seen year-over-year visitation declines.
Why are these three chains outperforming? As we’ve discussed in the past, we believe it comes down to (1) innovation; and (2) operational excellence. Recently, we looked at the importance of Chipotle’s Chicken al Pastor relaunch for Q2 2024 sales trends, sweetgreen’s increase in comparable visits that was helped by the launch of Caramelized Garlic Steak as a protein option, and CAVA’s exceptionally strong visitation trends due the launch of grilled steak at the beginning of June. However, innovation is only part of the outperformance, as each of these chains have also done a great job integrating their digital ordering platforms and in-store assembly line efforts, allowing for greater customization (something consumers appear to be willing to pay a premium for) and driving some of the strongest throughput numbers we’ve observed with our data.
The executives we spoke to at this week’s event had a gameplan to overcome these challenges in 2025.
Another executive told us that the currently challenging backdrop would ultimately make chains better operators. Not every chain can be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen, but there are still a lot of their strategies that restaurants can adopt to improve their own operations.
The inaugural Shoptalk Fall event brought a new energy to Chicago this week. The smaller format event allowed us to dive deeper into the trends across the retail industry and hear from key retail players about their initiatives and innovations across the industry.
One thing that is clear, retailers are bullish about physical retail. Many retailers shared plans for store openings in 2025, and there is a real focus on creating the right types of store formats and finding locations that are in line with a brand’s consumers. We may truly be at a point of inflection from a channel perspective, and physical retail is likely to become a more important part of the equation.
There’s a real energy shift in the industry in regard to the importance of stores, and it’s refreshing to see. As the industry settles from the migration shifts of consumers during and after the pandemic, the opportunity for new stores to directly cater to these new groups of shoppers is immense.
And it’s not just about the rise of physical retail, but the stories that retailers are able to tell through their offline channels. Retailers are actively focused on ways to eliminate friction for shoppers, arm store employees with more insights and tools and create experiences that forge lasting bonds with shoppers. We heard from Wayfair, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Michaels and Studs, who all referenced that differentiating experiences are driving loyalty and fostering long-term connections with consumers. Stores are an essential part of building and retaining brand equity with consumers.
The other key theme centers around none other than the consumer. The retail industry feels more customer centric than ever before, especially as we get further away from the pandemic. Retailers and brands recognize that today, the shopper is in the driver’s seat, and many initiatives and innovations center around providing the consumer with more power and knowledge. This is why we are hearing more about "micro-merchandising". Retailers need and can enhance their relevancy by understanding the unique demographics/psychographic differences and preferences of their individual locations.
Executives at McDonald’s provided more insight into the success of June 2023's immensely popular birthday celebration for Grimace, including the Grimace Shake; they built the concept around the idea that many consumers celebrate a birthday at McDonald’s restaurants, but from there they let consumers drive the conversation around the promotion on social media.
We heard from many that word of mouth marketing is truly the key to success in retail today, and empowering consumers to share their thoughts and affinities with others in person or through social media platforms is driving engagement and adoption. Through the lens of foot traffic, we may see more consumers head to stores after hearing about them from others in their network. Marketing departments no longer consist of teams within an organization, but incorporate consumers as well.
Overall, we felt a lot of positivity from the industry about where we’re headed in the near term. As we see the slow rebound of the discretionary side of retail, new stores and innovations in the coming year and a consumer that still remains resilient despite many economic headwinds, the best might be ahead for the industry.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
The dining industry showcased its agility over the past couple of years as it rapidly adapted to shifts in consumer preference brought on by COVID and rising prices. And with a new year around the corner, the pace of change shows no signs of slowing down.
This white paper harnesses location analytics, including visitation patterns, demographic data, and psychographic insights, to explore the trends that will shape the dining space in 2024. Which dining segments are likely to pull ahead of the pack? How are chains responding to changes in visitor behavior? And where are brands driving dining foot traffic by taking advantage of a new advertising possibility? Read on to find out how dining leaders can tap into emerging trends to stay ahead of the competition in 2024.
Comparing quarterly visits in 2023 and 2022 highlights the impact of the ongoing economic headwinds on the dining industry. The year started off strong, with year-over-year (YoY) dining visits up overall in Q1 2023 – perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted muted Q1 2022. And while overall dining growth stalled in Q2 2023, several segments – including QSR, Fast Casual, and Coffee – continued posting YoY visit increases, likely bolstered by consumers trading down from pricier full-service concepts.
Foot traffic slowed significantly in Q3 2023 as inflation and tighter consumer budgets constrained discretionary spending. Overall dining visits fell 2.4% YoY, and full-service restaurants – with their relatively high price point compared to other dining segments – seemed to be particularly impacted by the wider economic outlook. But the data also revealed some bright spots: Fast Casual still succeeded in maintaining positive YoY visit numbers and Coffee saw its Q3 visit grow an impressive 5.4% YoY. As the return to office continues, a pre-work coffee run or lunchtime foray to a fast-casual chain may continue propelling the two segments forward.
Restaurant visitation patterns have evolved over the past few years. Although an 8 PM seating was once the most coveted slot at fine-dining restaurants, recent visitation data suggests that sitting down to dinner earlier is rising in popularity.
But among the QSR segment, the opposite trend is emerging, with late-night visits rising. Analyzing hourly foot traffic to several major QSR chains reveals that the share of visits between 9 PM and 12 AM increased significantly between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023. Even Taco Bell – already known for its popularity among the late-night crowd – saw a substantial increase in late-night visits YoY – from 15.4% to 20.3%.
Who is driving the late night visit surge? One reason restaurants have been expanding their opening hours is to capture more Gen-Z diners, who tend to seek out nighttime dining options. But location intelligence reveals that younger millennials are also taking advantage of the later QSR closing times.
An analysis of the captured market for trade areas of top locations within one of Taco Bell’s major markets – the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan area – reveals a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) increase in “Singles & Starters.” The “Singles & Starters” segment is defined by Experian: Mosaic as young singles and starter families living in cities who are typically between 25 and 30 years old. As consumers continue to prioritize experiential entertainment and going out with friends, late-night dining may continue to see increased interest from young city-dwellers.
Millennials and Gen-Z consumers aren’t only heading to their favorite fast food joint for a late-night bite – these audience segments are also helping drive visits on the weekends. Smoothie King is one chain feeling the benefits of young, health-conscious consumers.
The chain, which opened in New Orleans, LA, in 1973 as a health food store, has since grown to over 1,100 locations nationwide and is currently expanding, focusing on the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA. The area’s Smoothie King venues have seen strong visitation patterns, particularly on the weekends – weekend visits were up 3.4% YoY in Q3 2023. The smoothie brand’s trade areas in the greater Dallas region is also seeing a YoY increase in weekend visits from “Young Professionals” – defined by the Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset as “well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs.”
While some dining chains are appealing to the late-night or weekend crowd, others are driving visits by appealing to sports lovers. How have recent rule changes around student athletes changed the restaurant game, and how can college football teams drive business in their hometowns?
College sports have long been a major moneymaker, with top-tier teams raking in billions of dollars annually. And as of 2021, college athletes can enjoy a piece of the significant fan following of college sports thanks to the change in the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules, which now allows student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Since then, multiple restaurants have jumped on the opportunity to partner with student athletes, some of whom have millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters have all signed college athletes to various brand deals.
How can brands ensure they partner with athletes their customers will want to engage with? Analyzing a chain’s audience by looking at the interests of residents in a given chain’s trade area can reveal which type of athlete will be the most attractive to each brand’s customer base. For example, data from Spatial.ai: Followgraph provides insight into the social media activity of consumers in a given trade area and can highlight desirable partnerships.
Examining the trade areas of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters, for instance, reveals that Sweetgreen’s visitors tended to have the largest share of Women’s Soccer followers. Conversely, Sweetgreen’s trade area had lower-than-average shares of College Football Fans or College Basketball Fans, while residents of the trade areas of the other three chains showed greater-than-average interest in these sports. Leveraging location intelligence can help companies choose brand deals that their customers resonate with and find the ideal athletes to represent the chain.
Finding the right college athlete partnership is one way for dining brands to appeal to college sports enthusiasts. But dining chains and venues located near major college stadiums also benefit from the popularity of their local team by enjoying a major game day visit boost.
One of the country’s most popular college football teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes, can draw millions of TV viewers, and its stadium has a capacity of 102,780 – one of the largest stadiums in the country. And while tailgating is a popular activity for Buckeyes fans, nearby restaurants are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the college football craze. Panera experienced a 235.3% increase on game days as compared to a typical day, Domino’s Pizza visits grew by 283.3%, and Tommy’s Pizza, a local pie shop, saw its visits jump by a whopping 600.9%.
This influx in diners also causes a major shift in game day visitor demographics, as revealed by changes in visitors at dining venues located near stadiums of two of the nation’s best college football teams – the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss Rebels. Based on Spatial.ai: Personalive data for the captured market of these dining venues, game day visitors tended to come from “Ultra Wealthy Families” when compared to visitors during a typical non-game day in September or October.
The analysis indicates that popular sporting events create a unique opportunity for restaurants near college stadiums to attract high-income customers game day after game day, year after year.
While some spend game day tailgating or visiting a college restaurant, others hold a viewing party – with a six-foot submarine. And the sub’s popularity extends beyond Superbowl Sundays. Sandwich chains including Jersey Mike’s, Firehouse Subs, Jimmy John’s, and Subway (recently purchased by the same company that owns Jimmy John’s) have seen sustained YoY increases in visits and visits per venue in the first three quarters of 2023.
Some of the growth to these chains may be related to their affordability, a draw at all times but especially during a period marked by consumer uncertainty and rising food costs. And subway leaders seem to be seizing the moment and striking while the iron is hot – Jersey Mike’s opened 350 stores in 2023 and still saw its YoY visits per venue grow by 6.6%. And Subway reported ten consecutive quarters of positive sales, a promising sign for its new owner.
The love for a healthy, affordable sandwich extends across all income levels, with all four chains seeing a range in their visitors' median household income (HHI). Out of the four chains analyzed, Jersey Mike’s – which has long prioritized a suburban, middle-income customer – had the highest trade area median household income of the four chains at $77.3K/year. Subway, known for its affordability, had the lowest, with $62.9K/year. The variance in median HHI combined with the strong foot traffic growth shows that when it comes to sandwiches, there’s something for everyone.
Persistent inflation and declining consumer sentiment may pose serious challenges for the dining space, but emerging trends are helping boost some restaurants. Customers seeking out a late-night bite drive visits to QSR chains, and health-conscious diners are boosting foot traffic to smoothie bars and sandwich shops. Meanwhile, sports sponsorships and game-day restaurant visits can provide a boost to dining businesses that take advantage of these opportunities.
“Retail media networks have turned retailers into ad moguls. That’s a huge change and nobody yet understands all the implications of it.”
Constantine von Hoffman, MARTECH
Companies operating consumer-facing brick-and-mortar venues traditionally relied on selling goods and services as their primary revenue stream. But recently, leading retailers such as Walmart and Target have begun to leverage their immense store fleet into a powerful advertising platform.
Online retailers have been tapping into the advertising power of their digital sites for years by relying on various automated tools to show third-party advertisements to relevant consumer segments. But now, retailers with a strong offline presence can also leverage physical marketing impressions and focus their campaigns while reaching consumers at the point of purchase. Retailers have long recognized the intent that drives a store visit, and understanding the full value of leveraging that visit to its full extent is an important new frontier.
Major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones.
And in spite of the gloomy predictions regarding the future of brick and mortar retail, major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones. Monthly numbers of visitors to Walmart and Target significantly outpace the brands’ online reach, according to web data from Similarweb. So although, up until recently, these brands have focused their media placements on their digital channels, it is becoming increasingly clear that these chains’ physical stores hold powerful – and currently untapped – advertising potential.
Online visitor data source: similarweb.com
And with the recent rise in digital advertising costs, retail media networks are becoming more attractive for companies looking to make the most of their ad budget. Retail media networks can also help brands reach rural communities, elderly Americans, and other consumer segments that are currently underserved by digital advertisers.
This white paper explores several retailers on the cutting edge of the retail media network revolution. Keep reading to find out how advertisers can use retail media networks to promote to hard-to-reach consumers, segment their ad spending, and optimize their campaigns.
Residents of rural areas use the internet less frequently, and have lower levels of technology ownership than their urban and suburban counterparts. As a result, companies that stick to digital advertising may have a harder time reaching rural consumers. Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can fill in the gaps and help brands promote their products and services to this hard-to-reach audience.
Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can help brands advertise to hard-to-reach audiences.
Dollar General saw significant success over the pandemic, with the current economic climate continuing to benefit the brand. Between January and August 2022, nationwide visits to Dollar General venues were 35.6% higher than they were between January and August 2019, while the number of visitors increased 25.4% in the same period.Visit numbers aggregate the visits to the chain’s various locations in a given period, while visitor numbers track the number of people who enter the brand’s stores.
The company has also been operating a media network since 2018. The Dollar General Media Network (DGMN) enables advertisers to reach Dollar General consumers across the company’s channels to build awareness both digitally and in physical spaces. Advertisers with DGMN can display in-store bollard, blade, and wipe stand signs, security pedestals, basket bottomers, and shelfAdz to deliver in-store messaging from parking lot to purchase. Recently, Dollar General announced that its ad platform was now working with 21 new advertising partners, including Unilever, General Mills, Hershey’s, and Colgate-Palmolive.
Embracing the Power of the Small Market
Advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Dollar General has been serving rural residents for years, with the majority of the company’s stores located in communities with fewer than 20,00 residents. And while the brand is growing nationwide, Dollar General’s strength is particularly evident in small markets – which means that advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Comparing year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) visit change to Dollar General stores in metropolitan and micropolitan core based statistical areas (CBSAs) highlights the company’s success in smaller markets. According to the United States Office of Management and Budget, metropolitan and micropolitan CBSAs have over and under 50,000 residents, respectively. Since January 2022, monthly Yo3Y visit growth to Dollar General venues in select Texas micropolitans has consistently outpaced foot traffic to nearby metropolitan areas. While the Sherman-Denison metro area saw August 2022 foot traffic hit a solid 24.5% increase over August 2019, the Gainesville, Texas micro area – around 35 miles east of Sherman – saw its foot traffic increase 54.5% in the same period.
Dollar General’s presence across a significant number of smaller markets means that advertising partners can use the growing DGMN to increase awareness and drive purchase consideration among these harder-to-reach consumers.
In the digital space, three tech giants – Alphabet (previously Google), Meta (previously Facebook), and Amazon – enjoy over 60% of the digital ad revenue in the United States. This means that companies are competing for impressions on a small number of platforms – and smaller brands geared at specific consumer segments may need to spend significant advertising budgets to outbid the larger players. Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms, and enable advertisers to diversify their ad spend, increase their (physical) impressions, focus on more specialized channels to better reach their audience, and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Albertsons launched its retail media network, Albertsons Media Collective, in November 2021 with the goal of delivering “digitally native, shopper-centric and engaging branded content to the company’s ever-growing network of shoppers.” Currently, the grocer’s media network is primarily digital, but Albertsons’ head of retail media products Evan Hovorka recognizes the importance of leveraging in-store assets to deliver a unique advertising experience. The company is testing out smart carts that link with “Albertsons for U” loyalty program to display ads to shoppers – and Albertsons is likely to find more ways to reach in-store consumers as it continues to develop its retail media network.
The chain is also one of the most popular grocers nationwide. With the exception of March and April 2022, when inflation and high gas prices temporarily halted growth, the brand’s monthly visits and visitor numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Monthly visits for Albertsons in August 2022 were up 5.7% and monthly visitors were up 5.4% on a Yo3Y basis. This means that advertisers with Albertsons can increase their reach and grow their physical ad impressions just by displaying their ads in Albertsons locations and tapping into the chain’s growing visitor base.
Looking beyond Albertsons' nationwide average foot traffic trends reveals some important regional differences. Between January and July 2022, visits to the brands increased 4.6% in Wyoming on a Yo3Y basis, while foot traffic to the brand’s locations in Oregon jumped 18.5% compared to January through July 2019. This means that a brand looking to reach consumers in Oregon can contract with Albertsons’ media network to show its ads to a fast-growing pool of visitors.
A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions, while more visits from fewer visitors can drive repeated exposures.
Diving deeper into the data reveals an additional layer of insight. Some states with only moderate visit growth are seeing a surge in visitor numbers, while other states are seeing a drop in visitor numbers but a rise in visits. A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions and more people exposed to the ads, while more visits from fewer visitors translates to more overall impressions that can drive repeated exposure among a smaller group of visitors. So advertisers can use segmented foot traffic data to decide where to focus their marketing depending on the goal of the campaign.
For example, Wyoming's moderate increase in visits hides a significant spike in visitors, which means that advertisers to Albertsons venues in Wyoming can get their impressions before a large number of different potential consumers. Meanwhile, Oregon's 18.5% increase in visits is the result of just a 9.4% increase in visitors – so Albertsons is cultivating an increasingly loyal following in the Beaver State, and the grocer’s advertising partners can expect that the same visitors will be exposed to their brand repeatedly.
So companies that want to increase unique ad impressions and build awareness can advertise to Albertsons customers in Wyoming, where their ads will be seen by a large number of new people. But in Oregon, companies may want to promote a campaign that focuses on moving Albertsons visitors through their funnel.
In order to accurately assess the ad distribution patterns in each location, brands operating retail media networks need to understand both visits and visitors trends in each region and for the chain as a whole.
Advertisers with retail media networks can use foot traffic data to refine their geographic audience by identifying the consumer preferences of a given brick-and-mortar brand on a store or city level.
In August 2020, CVS Pharmacy launched its media network, the CVS Media Exchange (cMx). The company estimates that 76% of U.S. consumers live within five miles of at least one store, and the cMx allows partners to tap into the chain’s reach by giving advertisers access to CVS’ online and offline channels, including in-store ads.
Although CVS has been closing locations recently, the brand is still one of the strongest players in the brick-and-mortar retail space. Its 2022 visit numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels nationwide, and data from CVS locations in leading cities shows that its Yo3Y visits per venue and visitor numbers are even higher.
CVS’s nationally distributed fleet means that the brand’s locations in different regions attract distinct consumer bases.
CVS carries a varied product mix of daily essentials in addition to its healthcare offerings, so the brand attracts a wide range of consumer segments. And the chain’s nationally distributed store fleet means that CVS has locations in different regions that attract distinct consumer bases who do not all have the same lifestyle preferences. By using foot traffic data to understand the regional consumer preferences of CVS consumers beyond the store, advertising partners can refine their market and make the most of the cMx.
Different regions have different fitness cultures. Chains catering to health-conscious consumers can use retail media networks and foot traffic data to focus their efforts on areas where inhabitants exhibit a high demand for regular workouts.
Analyzing cross-visit data from CVS locations across five major urban centers in the U.S. shows that the percentage of those who also visited gyms or fitness studios varied significantly across each DMA. In the New York area, 62.7% of those who visited CVS in Q2 2022 also visited a fitness venue during that period, in contrast with only 38.0% of CVS visitors around Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX in the same period. This information can help advertising partners in the health and wellness space decide where to place their campaigns.
Looking at cross-visit data on a city-wide level can provide a sense of the consumer culture in each area, but advertisers that dive into foot traffic data for individual stores can refine their messaging even further.
On average, 43.8% of CVS visitors in the Chicago DMA also visited a gym in Q2 2022. But drilling down to the top CVS locations in the city reveals that the rate of cross-visits varies significantly from location to location. Both the E 53rd Street and W 103rd Street locations have a relatively high share of visitors who visit fitness locations – 52.5% and 49.2%, respectively. Meanwhile fitness cross-visits were at just 36.6% for the South Stony Island Avenue location. Advertisers promoting health and wellness related products and services may want to focus on the 103rd St. and 53rd St. CVS locations.
Diving into a customer’s behavior and preferences outside the store can help retail media network operators and advertising partners find the areas and locations best suited for each type of ad.
Cross-visit data is one way to identify consumer preferences beyond the physical store. Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus their marketing on the most appropriate locations.
Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus on the most appropriate locations.
Over the past couple of years, Macy’s has been finding ways to reinvent itself and optimize its store fleet – and foot traffic data indicates that the retailer's efforts are paying off. In the first half of 2022, Macy’s exceeded its H1 2021 overall visit and average visits per venue numbers and posted a positive year-over-year (YoY) visitor count. In Q2 2022, despite the wider economic challenges, Macy’s visitors, visits, and average visits per venue saw YoY increases of 3.4%, 4.0% and 9.9% increases.
Like CVS, Macy’s launched its media network in August 2020, and by February 2021 the Macy’s Media Network was already generating $35 million annually. In addition to advertising on the company’s digital channels, Macy’s also offers partners the use of in-store screen displays, package inserts, and the brand’s iconic billboard in New York City’s Herald Square.
Advertisers can optimize their advertising by analyzing the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores.
Advertisers that understand the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores can optimize their advertising efforts. While looking at variations in cross-visit trends is one way to identify interested brick-and-mortar consumers, diving into visitor’s digital behavior and online preferences can also provide valuable insights.
Tools such as Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb, which tracks online engagement with various trends and topics by neighborhood, can reveal how offline consumers behave online. An index score of 100 indicates that consumers in an area have an average interest in a given topic, while scores over (or under) 100 indicate that consumers are more (or less) interested in the topic when compared to the national average interest.
We used Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb tool to analyze the online behavior of consumers in the True Trade Areas (TTA) of five Macy’s locations in the Philadelphia, PA DMA – and found that residents of the different TTAs stores showed differing indexes. For example, the Macy’s in the King of Prussia Mall location showed a high index of 161 in “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers,” while the Cottman Ave. location had an only slightly above average index of 102. This means that advertisers of men’s business apparel may see more results by focussing their advertising on visitors to the King of Prussia location.
Advertisers that use retail media networks do a lot more than just reach in-store shoppers. Stores exist in the physical world, so advertisers can also reach passers-by through physical venues’ windows, blade signs – or in the case of Macy’s, through its Herald Square Billboard. Here too, foot traffic data can reveal the consumer preferences of people walking by the sign.
We looked at the online behavior in the TTA around the traffic pin on the corner where the billboard is located (Broadway/6th Ave and 34th Street in New York) to understand which advertisers might benefit most from a billboard at that location. While the “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers” category was over-indexed compared to the national average, as would be expected in midtown Manhattan, “Women’s Fashion Brand Shoppers” had an even higher index. “Gen Z Apparel Shoppers” were over-represented, but “Leather Good Shoppers” and ”Athleisure Shoppers” were under-represented. So a brand that carries both elegant wear and athleisure may want to display its less casual clothing lines on the billboard.
Understanding how consumers behave both on and offline can help retail media networks and advertising partners promote their campaigns most effectively.
To transform their physical store fleet into a media network, brands and companies need to analyze the reach of each venue. The same chain operating in multiple regions may be reaching different types of consumers in each area, or even in various neighborhoods of the same city. These distinct audiences may have contrasting products, brands, and shopping preferences.
Retailers that leverage their brick and mortar presence can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
Retailers can also partner with advertising partners who wish to promote goods and services not carried by the retailer. For this to succeed, the retailer will need to analyze how consumers behave outside of its stores. Understanding what characterizes the overall behavior of consumers in each locations’ trade area will allow the retailer to reach a larger audience and truly compete with the digital giants. And by leveraging their brick and mortar presence, brick and mortar retail can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
