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Beauty retail continues to navigate a complex landscape in which discretionary spending remains constrained and digital and social commerce play an increasingly significant role. But diving into the foot traffic trends for Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works – two of the sector’s largest players – reveals how the right strategy can drive both brick-and-mortar and online growth in a dynamic retail environment.
Ulta delivered fiscal Q3 results that exceeded expectations. Management credited the success of Ulta Beauty Unleashed, including investments in digital capabilities, celebrity activations, and brand launches that strengthened both e-commerce and in-store performance. One of the key milestones for the company during the quarter included the launch of the Ulta Beauty Marketplace, which expands the assortment of products available to Ulta’s online shoppers.
And while year-over-year (YoY) visits and visits per venue were essentially flat in December 2025, foot traffic trends in recent months suggest the company could be on track for another positive quarter.
In its most recent earnings call, Bath & Body Works reported sales declines, pointing to macroeconomic pressure on consumers and an elevated promotional environment. In response, management outlined a “consumer-first formula” centered on product innovation, an elevated in-store experience, renewed cultural relevance, and enhanced digital discovery – including the launch of an Amazon storefront.
Yet Bath & Body Works’ YoY monthly visits remained positive throughout 2025 and into early 2026, indicating that the brand has maintained relevance even as consumers grew more value conscious. If Bath & Body Works can execute on its updated strategic direction, it may be positioned to build on its existing traffic momentum and improve overall performance in the months ahead.
Younger audience engagement emerged as a theme in both companies’ strategic discussions, whether by way of Ulta’s campus activations or Bath & Body Works’ network of influencers.
An AI-powered analysis of each brand’s potential versus captured markets – comparing the trade areas from which they could draw visitors with the households that ultimately account for in-store traffic – offers additional context to the companies’ investment in this key demographic.
In 2025, both retailers attracted an outsized share of family-oriented segments. Wealthy Suburban Families, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, and Near-Urban Diverse Families were overrepresented in captured markets relative to potential markets for both brands. Meanwhile, shares of Young Urban Singles, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites (well-educated, younger consumers) were smaller in both brands’ captured markets than in their potential markets.
The gap between captured and potential audiences points to a meaningful opportunity that Ulta and Bath & Body Works seem to understand. While both retailers resonate with established, family households, incremental growth may hinge on driving more traffic from younger consumers.
Ulta and Bath & Body Works’ traffic patterns suggest that beauty demand remains resilient, even as consumer spending patterns evolve. And both brands are positioning for their next phase of growth through multi-pronged strategies that address deepening engagement from younger audiences.
Will these beauty retailers build on their successes in the coming months? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
For downtowns still waiting on office attendance or international tourism to fully rebound, Sacramento offers a more proactive recovery model. Rather than anchoring its future to any single demand driver, the city has spent the past several years deliberately engineering demand – using programming, placemaking, and policy to create the kinds of “social collisions” that give people reasons to show up, stay longer, and come back.
Like many cities, Sacramento has navigated prolonged disruptions to traditional downtown demand streams, from office attendance to international tourism and business travel. But instead of waiting for those patterns to fully normalize, city leaders have leaned into what they could control – regional identity and local draw.
Elevating the city’s creative and cultural assets while strengthening its positioning as the “Farm-to-Fork Capital of America” through major festivals like Terra Madre Americas, has helped Sacramento stabilize leisure visitation even amid broader uncertainty. Food-forward events, large-scale music festivals, and major league sports – including NBA Kings games and MLB Athletics games based in West Sacramento through 2027 – have created reasons to visit that do not depend on office mandates or long-haul travel.
And the impact of this strategy is showing up in visitor behavior. Weekend out-of-market visits to downtown Sacramento are on the rise, and visitors are staying longer – signaling sustained engagement with the urban core.
At the center of Sacramento’s strategy is a belief that programming functions as economic infrastructure. Over the past decade, the downtown has expanded from hosting a relatively limited number of annual events to more than 200 today, ranging from major festivals to weekly farmers markets.
These events translate directly into foot traffic and revenue for retail, dining, and entertainment. The chart below shows how local programming draws visitors into DOCO, the Downtown Commons entertainment and retail district adjacent to Golden 1 Center, with audience composition varying by event. Family-oriented programming such as the Sacramento Santa Parade attracts more affluent family households, while events like the California Brewers Festival draw a higher share of younger singles and early-career professionals.
Event days are also associated with longer dwell times within the district, suggesting deeper engagement with the surrounding retail environment.
The city has also taken other steps to generate “social collisions”. Working with the city’s nighttime economy manager, Sacramento introduced a limited entertainment permit that removes one-size-fits-all regulatory barriers and allows brick-and-mortar businesses to host local performances at a far lower cost. And these policy changes were reinforced with targeted investments – like a six-block illuminated pedestrian corridor connecting key downtown anchors, which shifts colors for Sacramento Kings games or seasonal moments.
Sacramento’s downtown recovery offers a clear lesson for cities navigating long-term structural change: Waiting for old patterns to return is far riskier than designing new ones. By leaning into culture and programming, Sacramento is strengthening the downtown economy while delivering value to local residents and the broader region.
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The Kroger Company closed Q4 2025 with an average 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth and a 2.8% YoY increase in visits per venue across its 20+ banners, highlighting the ongoing resilience of the grocery category going into 2026. For the full year (2025), the company's overall traffic as well as average visits per venue increased 1.0% YoY.
But even as traffic increased, average dwell time across the company's banners decreased YoY – suggesting that consumers may be visiting Kroger stores more frequently but filling smaller baskets during each trip.
Traffic trends to Kroger's largest banners mirrored the company-wide performance with more visits but a shorter average dwell time compared to the previous year.
These patterns reflect larger trends seen across the grocery space, where traffic growth has been largely driven by an increase in shorter trips as shoppers split their lists across retailers and make more targeted visits based on price, promotion, or specific product needs. In this more fragmented and mission-driven environment, Kroger’s scale, private-label penetration, and data-driven promotional engine provide a competitive advantage. Still, in a market defined by shorter, targeted visits, sustainable growth will depend on Kroger’s ability to defend “share of list” while leveraging its operational efficiency and loyalty ecosystem to convert traffic gains into profitable sales.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The athletic apparel and sporting goods landscape has faced various headwinds throughout 2025 – from shifting consumer spending patterns to challenging macroeconomic conditions. Against this backdrop, an AI-powered analysis of Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and lululemon highlights where each brand may find momentum in 2026.
DICK’s delivered a solid fiscal Q3, and the most recent year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic data indicates that stability carried into the following months. The company continues to work through the integration of Foot Locker – streamlining inventory and refining operations – while simultaneously expanding its House of Sport and Field House concepts. Investment in these experiential formats underscores a strategic commitment to immersive retail and broader merchandise diversification to drive long-term growth.
Academy Sports + Outdoors delivered positive top-line growth and profitability in fiscal Q3, despite a modest decline in comparable sales. And while management noted record Black Friday performance, cooling same-store traffic persisted from November 2025 through January 2026.
Yet focusing solely on offline traffic may overlook several of Academy’s omnichannel growth drivers. The brand emphasized the connection between digital customer acquisition and continued store expansion, since a growing store footprint expands BOPIS fulfillment capacity. In this context, softer visit trends may reflect channel mix shifts, positioning the company for long-term growth.
Lululemon’s fiscal Q3 results reflected a bifurcated performance, with U.S. revenue declining modestly while international growth surged. At the time, management emphasized product innovation and global expansion as strategic priorities in 2026, reinforcing the brand’s long-term growth roadmap; so while recent YoY foot traffic trends point to some domestic pressure, the strength of lululemon’s international markets serves as a stabilizing force that could reignite engagement stateside over time.
Lululemon, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and DICK’s performance shows that strategy and execution across channels matters. DICK’s investment in specialized formats, Academy’s omnichannel push, and lululemon’s international expansion, each address distinct growth levers in a challenging discretionary environment.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Over the past two years, Costco has made several moves that risked upsetting its famously loyal customer base – including raising membership fees in September 2024 and restricting food court access to members only. But visit data suggests that, rather than deterring shoppers, these changes have supported rising engagement and a broadening customer base.
The chart below shows that Costco entered 2026 with solid visit momentum. Both total and same-store visits posted healthy year-over-year gains through the back half of 2025 and into January.
That resilience aligns with recent earnings reports, which show Costco delivering consistent mid-single-digit comparable sales growth throughout 2025. By raising the “cost of commitment,” Costco may be discouraging casual or opportunistic users while deepening engagement among shoppers who do the math and shop more frequently to justify the fee.
Perhaps the clearest signal of Costco’s durable positioning lies in its evolving demographic profile. While the chain continues to over-index on affluent consumers, it is also attracting a growing cohort of younger shoppers, reflected in the chart below by a rising share of “Contemporary Households” – a young-skewing segment comprising singles, married couples without children, and non-family households. As this cohort has expanded, Costco’s overall income profile has also subtly broadened.
The persistence of this shift despite higher fees challenges the notion that price increases drive exclusivity. For many households, the fee remains a rational trade-off for reliable savings – and the broader reach gives Costco added leverage to negotiate pricing and defend margins.
Costco’s recent moves show that pricing power and scale don’t have to be trade-offs. By pairing higher fees with stricter enforcement, the company is strengthening loyalty, preserving value perception, and widening its appeal to younger households – all while keeping traffic strong. That combination leaves Costco unusually well positioned as cost pressures persist: a retailer with both the volume to command supplier leverage and a member base committed enough to sustain it.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When grocery analysts think about low prices and private label, Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl often come to mind. And while all three operate in the value-driven grocery space, they differ meaningfully in how they run their stores, position their brands, and engage consumers. An AI-based analysis of shopping behavior and audience characteristics for each chain reveals how distinct brand strategies are influencing visit patterns and could continue to shape performance heading into 2026.
One of the defining themes of the 2025 retail narrative was the consumer’s continued focus on value, and the grocery sector was no exception. Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl – all known for extensive private label assortments and competitive pricing – each experienced positive year-over-year visit growth in all four quarters of 2025. And with the exception of Lidl in Q3, they consistently outperformed the broader grocery category, underscoring the enduring pull of value in a cost-conscious environment.
While some of that growth can be attributed to Aldi, Lidl, and Trader Joe’s expanding store footprints, increases in average visits per location suggest that demand rose alongside store count. If value remains a primary motivator in 2026, these low-price grocers appear well positioned to continue capturing incremental foot traffic.
Despite shared characteristics – private label dominance and ongoing expansion – Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl take very different approaches to the in-store experience. An analysis of visit length highlights how each brand’s balance of convenience and assortment influences how shoppers interact with its stores.
Across the grocery category, 22.1% of visits in 2025 lasted under 10 minutes – a higher share than at Trader Joe’s, Aldi, or Lidl. This likely reflects the widespread availability of curbside pickup and quick in-and-out trips at traditional grocers, which isn't offered at Trader Joe’s and Lidl and is only available in a limited capacity at Aldi. 18.2% of the grocery category’s visits also lasted between 10 and 15 minutes, reflecting many just slightly longer top-up visits consistent with the high-density presence of traditional grocers in many markets.
Trader Joe’s stands out for its concentration of mid-length visits. The chain posted the highest share of visits lasting 10 to 15 minutes and 15 to 30 minutes, suggesting a highly efficient shopping experience.
This pattern aligns with Trader Joe’s small-format stores and tightly curated assortment, where seasonal items and cult-favorite products anchor clear shopping missions. Shoppers appear to arrive with a plan and move quickly through the store – reinforcing Trader Joe’s strength as a fast, focused destination.
Aldi sees a higher share of visits in the 15 to 30 minute and 30 to 45 minute ranges than the grocery category overall, edging out Lidl slightly in both buckets. This suggests that Aldi’s limited-SKU and small-format model simplifies navigation and decision-making. Meanwhile, no-frills merchandising – with products often displayed in cartons or on pallets – supports its value perception, so shoppers still spend meaningful time winding the aisles to save money.
Lidl shows the strongest skew toward longer visits, including the highest share of visits lasting over 45 minutes (11.7%), exceeding Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and the grocery category overall.
This reflects Lidl’s positioning somewhere between a traditional grocery store and a superstore. Its in-store bakery, broader meat and dairy selections, housewares, and wider assortment require more time to navigate, and its stores are typically larger than Aldi’s while remaining smaller than conventional grocers. Together, these factors encourage more comprehensive stock-up trips.
Lidl’s relatively smaller store footprint network may also play a role, pushing shoppers to consolidate trips rather than supplementing with quick, nearby visits – a behavior more common in the broader grocery category.
Small, efficient store formats are a shared advantage for Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl, but the data suggests that footprint alone doesn’t define the shopping experience. Rather, each chain’s strategic differences meaningfully shape how consumers move through their stores.
At the same time, there is strong evidence that pickup remains a powerful draw for grocery shoppers – more than one in five grocery visits last under 10 minutes. If Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl want to capture more of those short trips, expanding convenient pickup options could be an opportunity worth exploring.
Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl may share a reputation for value, but they are not competing on the same terms. Each chain’s philosophy shapes how shoppers engage with its stores – Trader Joe’s through curated discovery, Aldi through uncompromising efficiency and low prices, and Lidl through a full grocery experience at a discount. As value remains a powerful driver of grocery traffic, continued success will depend on each brand doubling down on the elements of its model that set it apart and resonate most clearly with its core shopper.
Will 2026 be another stand-out year for these grocers? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
