.svg)
Mall visit trends improved slightly in July 2025. Indoor mall traffic grew 1.3% year-over-year, reversing June's visit declines. This growth highlights indoor malls' rebound and suggests that enclosed shopping centers continue to attract consumers seeking climate-controlled comfort during peak summer heat.
Meanwhile, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls narrowed their visit gaps, with visits to open-air shopping centers almost on par with July 2024 levels and visits to outlet malls just 2.1% lower than this time last year.
Diving into the weekly data reveals a more complex picture. While mid-July visits were generally up relative to 2024 – perhaps boosted by the various July sales events – traffic across all three formats softened towards the end of the month. This may suggest that these major promotional events may be pulling demand forward rather than generating sustained, incremental traffic and highlights the challenge of converting a promotional 'sugar rush' into lasting momentum.
Boise Towne Square significantly outpaced the broader Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index in July, posting 12.2% year-over-year growth versus the national average of 1.3% – extending the Idaho mall's exceptional performance streak throughout 2025. And remarkably, Boise Towne Square has also consistently surpassed its pre-pandemic visit level every month of 2025 so far.
While multiple factors likely contribute to this strength, a major traffic driver has been the new In-N-Out location that opened in the mall in late October 2024. Since the opening, visits to Boise Towne Square have steadily increased, and other tenants – including other dining establishments – have also benefited from sustained visit improvements across the entire mall.
This demonstrates the powerful halo effect that a high-draw non-traditional anchor tenant can create for an entire shopping center.
To check out retail foot traffic trends for yourself, try Placer.ai's free industry trends tool.
.avif)
Despite persistent economic uncertainty, the retail sector continues to show signs of stability, though not without caveats. Store closures have put pressure on vacancies, while new construction remains limited. Yet, leasing momentum has persisted in prime locations, supported by resilient consumer demand and evolving tenant strategies. In this report, we explore the key takeaways across retail fundamentals and shifting consumer behavior, using foot traffic trends to illuminate where the market is headed next.
Overall consumer foot traffic was up year-over-year in the first half of 2025, pointing to the resilience of the U.S. consumer and the continued demand for brick-and-mortar channels. Car wash services received the most significant visit spike, followed by theaters, music venues, and attractions. However, out-of-home entertainment still has a way to go before reaching pre-COVID visit levels. Traffic to fitness chains also increased, an impressive accomplishment given the category's multi-year growth streak.
Meanwhile, visits lagged for discretionary categories, especially those carrying larger-ticket items, such as home improvement retailers and electronics stores. Traffic to gas stations and C-stores was also below 2024, perhaps due to the recent dip in domestic travel.
Source: Colliers, Placer.ai
Analyzing the top 10 chains from the Placer 100 Retail and Dining Index with the most significant YoY growth in visits per venue in H1 2025 highlights consumers' current preference for affordable brands. Chili's took the top spot – its ongoing value promotions are still resonating with diners and driving traffic to the chain in 2025. Crunch Fitness, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and HomeGoods – each known for their affordability– also made the top 10 list.
Several chains catering to mid- and high-income consumers – including Nordstrom, Staples, LA Fitness, and Barnes & Noble – experienced significant growth in visits per venue. This suggests that while value matters, brands don't need the lowest prices to win customers. Consumers want confidence that they're getting their money's worth. Brands that effectively communicate their value proposition can thrive, no matter the final price point.
Source: Colliers, Placer.ai
The first half of 2025 painted a mixed picture for retail real estate. While well-located centers continued to see solid leasing activity and rent stability, a surge in store closures placed an upward pressure on vacancies across lower-tier assets. New construction remains muted amid high borrowing costs, with most developers focusing on repositioning existing spaces. Absorption and leasing activity reflected the broader theme of bifurcation—strong demand for value-driven and experiential retail on one end, and lingering weakness in legacy retail formats.
Despite ongoing macroeconomic noise – from inflationary pressures to tariff uncertainty – U.S. retail sales posted steady year-over-year growth across the first half of 2025.
Source: Colliers, Census Bureau
One of the most overlooked trends this year is who is driving the spending. A recent Fed working paper highlighted that when using granular, self-reported income data, the narrative shifts dramatically: much of the consumer "resilience" is being propped up by high-income households, while middle- and lower-income groups are pulling back. Retailers that cater to affluent demographics or can flex their value proposition are faring better than those stuck in the middle.
Retailers should note that underlying volume growth, which strips out inflation and tariff-influenced buying, has been consistently weaker than top-line figures suggest. Analysts warn that this could foreshadow softer performance in the second half of 2025, especially as inflation, interest rates, and tariff impacts start to ripple more clearly through the supply chain.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the retail sector is expected to remain stable but face growing macroeconomic pressures. Vacancy rates should hold steady, supported by a sharp 45% drop in new construction, though closures in freestanding formats (like pharmacies and discount stores) may cause localized upticks. Asking rents are projected to rise by about 2%, driven by limited supply and steady tenant demand. While net absorption may ease slightly, it is expected to remain positive across malls and open-air centers. Store-based retail sales are forecast to grow 1.5% in 2025, maintaining a 76% share of total retail sales. However, elevated inflation could weigh on consumer volume growth and leasing momentum in more price-sensitive segments.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
At Colliers, we’re proud to partner with Placer.ai, an industry-leading foot traffic analytics platform, to deliver more profound insights into the evolving retail landscape. As enterprise users of the tool, we’ve combined location intelligence with market fundamentals to uncover the trends shaping retail real estate in the first half of 2025.
Xiao Long Bao, or soup dumplings, have long been a staple at Chinese restaurants. Kids’ faces would light up as the bamboo steamer was uncovered and the big question swirled around how to eat it: take a small nibble and slowly savor the soup first or let it cool and eat in one big bite? Both options were enormously satisfying, and now the cat is out of the bag and xiao long bao have taken the world by storm.
Din Tai Fung began selling dumplings in 1978 in Taipei, Taiwan. Over the years, one of the Hong Kong branches has become a 5-time Michelin Star winner, and the chain has now expanded to 13 countries with 180 locations around the world. A recent Restaurant Business Online article revealed that “Din Tai Fung’s per-restaurant average of $27.4 million is nearly two times higher than the next closest brand, an astounding feat for a casual-dining chain.” The next 4 highest AUV restaurants are all steakhouses. The article continues with saying that “to generate unit volumes of that magnitude, a restaurant generally has to do three things: It has to be big, customers have to spend a decent amount, and it has to be busy. Din Tai Fung checks all three of those boxes.”
Go to any Din Tai Fung and you will often see lines snaking out the door, even in between meal times, like at 2pm. Their enormous popularity also has a great upside for the malls in which they reside. There’s a wait? No problem, one can shop while waiting to be called.
In the past year, malls with a Din Tai Fung consistently outperformed the indoor mall and open-air lifestyle center index. Even in some months where mall traffic was down year-over-year, the malls with a Din Tai Fung were often positive.
There are two likely explanations for these trends: 1) that Din Tai Fung is simply good at choosing its locations, placing its restaurants in centers that are already bustling and with an audience or trade area receptive to its offering, or 2) that Din Tai Fung is helping to drive this mall traffic. It may also be a bit of both, with a symbiotic relationship occurring.
Analyzing a location that has had a recent Din Tai Fung opening, namely Santa Monica Place in Southern California reveals that the addition of the restaurant also helps boost dwell time and evening visits.
This makes sense, as the opening of large restaurants in a shopping center increases one of the “occasions” for visiting, namely dinner. In particular, the timeframe after 7 PM has also expanded in popularity. Concurrently, dwell time at the mall has risen with the opening of this new restaurant, from an average of 45 minutes to now 58 minutes.
Din Tai Fung’s first US location was on Baldwin Ave in Arcadia, CA which opened in 2000. Before its worldwide expansion, it was already a local San Gabriel Valley gem. Looking at Placer data for this stand-alone restaurant in an outdoor center, we see that it was already showing signs of greater visits per square foot than many other peer establishments in the neighborhood, including other Chinese restaurants. After flying a bit under the radar for over a dozen years, a flagship restaurant opened at Santa Anita mall across the way in 2016. The original Arcadia location eventually closed in late July 2020, but since then many others have popped open all over the US.
Din Tai Fung has many things going for it, particularly as Asian food and culture has been exploding in popularity in the United States. One San Francisco Chronicle article talks about how two SF malls, Japantown and Stonestown Galleria, are defying the mall doom loop by “capturing the zeitgeist by offering unique Japanese, Korean, and Chinese pop culture.” In addition to providing tasty food, Din Tai Fung is also in the unique position of featuring a lot of shareables at affordable price points.
While steak dinners might be more for business or special occasion meals, Din Tai Fung is elevated enough to be a treat, but a lesser hit on the wallet. As dining becomes more experiential, diners enjoy being able to try a variety of main and side dishes. Locations allow you to peek in on the action, with the chefs painstakingly pleating the soup dumplings to exacting proportions of 18 folds and 21 grams. As someone who has been frequenting Din Tai Fung since its first US location opened as a stand-alone restaurant in Arcadia, as well as 11 of the US locations and the original in Taiwan, the company also maintains extremely high standards and consistent execution.
Ultimately, Din Tai Fung's success suggests that a combination of operational excellence and experiential dining can create a destination brand that elevates the entire ecosystem around it.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Following a period of caution in May and June, U.S. industrial manufacturing facilities saw a significant surge of activity in July 2025. As we've noted previously, many manufacturers experienced an increase in visits during March and April to build inventory ahead of initial tariff implementation dates, followed by a normalization period in May and June as businesses adopted a "wait-and-see" approach. However, with the hard deadline of August 1st for new, widespread tariffs, July was marked by a dramatic uptick in visits from both employees and logistics partners as companies made a last-ditch effort to maximize output and shipments.
This flurry of activity was particularly intense in highly interconnected sectors like auto manufacturing, industrial machinery, and metals processing, all of which are vulnerable to tariffs on imported raw materials and components. Metals processing plants, for example, ramped up operations to convert as much raw steel and aluminum as possible before their costs increased. In turn, auto and industrial machinery manufacturers accelerated their own production lines, pulling in vast quantities of both processed metals and specialized foreign parts to build up inventory before the new duties could disrupt their supply chains.
This final pre-tariff rush was evident in our data: the increase in employee visits to factories signaled that production lines were running at high capacity, while a sharp rise in visits from logistics partners – like truckers and other carriers – indicated a massive push to move finished goods and components through the supply chain before the August 1st implementation date.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
In a challenging macroeconomic environment, full-service restaurants (FSRs) face mounting pressure to attract and retain diners. Recent foot traffic data underscores a growing divide among top FSR players:
Brinker International (EAT), parent to Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy, continued its winning streak with double-digit YoY visit growth in Q2.
Texas Roadhouse’s portfolio (TXRH), featuring its flagship steakhouse, Bubba-33, and Jaggers, saw moderate (+4.1%) YoY overall visit gains and slightly increased same-store visits, reflecting steady performance at existing sites amid ongoing expansion.
Bloomin’ Brands (Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar) experienced YoY foot traffic declines. While Bloomin’ narrowed its YoY visit gap in Q2, it remains squeezed between the aggressive value messaging of chains like Chili’s and the focused execution of competitors like Texas Roadhouse.
What lies behind Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s standout success in 2025?
Chili’s visits began to surge in Q2 2024 – the result of a turnaround plan executed by CEO Kevin Hochman after he took the helm in 2022. By reducing and refining the menu, boosting efficiency, and focusing on craveable yet affordable dishes, Chili’s cut costs and funneled the savings into compelling promotions. The company also worked to make its brand more fun and buzzworthy, setting the stage for viral TikTok moments amplified by well-coordinated influencer campaigns. Meanwhile, menu innovations – most notably the Big Smash Burger, added to the company’s “3 for Me” value menu in April 2024 – drove a lasting traffic boost that persisted into 2025 as the chain continued updating its value meal.
Texas Roadhouse, by contrast, has pursued steady expansion over the past several years. Like Chili’s, it relies on a focused, core menu to maintain quality and efficiency, but unlike Chili’s it rarely changes up its offerings, sticking instead to consistently excelling at what it does best. The steakhouse chain also famously forgoes nationwide advertising in favor of local engagement and a strong reputation for everyday value. Although per-location visit growth at Texas Roadhouse softened slightly in early 2025 – perhaps reflecting heightened consumer attention to limited-time offers and special promotions – the steakhouse continues to grow its footprint while limiting cannibalization.
Despite following different paths to growth, Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse have both made focused menus a core tenet of their strategies. And with menu simplification proving effective in today’s crowded market, it is no surprise that Bloomin’ Brands has recently outlined its own plans to cut costs and boost consistency by trimming menus – particularly at Outback Steakhouse.
Ultimately, foot traffic translates into market share, and both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse have grown their portions of the overall FSR visit pie. While Texas Roadhouse has steadily augmented its reach over several years, Chili’s saw a sharp surge in H1 2025, propelled by its aggressive value-driven initiatives.
The varied performances of Brinker, Texas Roadhouse, and Bloomin’ Brands underscore the critical need for a clear, disciplined strategy in today’s competitive casual dining sector. And Chili's and Texas Roadhouse’s successes demonstrate how menu simplicity and operational efficiency can fuel distinct avenues to success.
As these brands head into the second half of 2025, several questions loom large for executives and investors:
The coming months will test whether Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse can maintain their winning formulas – and whether Bloomin’ Brands can course-correct through targeted menu reductions and promotional recalibrations.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Health and wellness continue to be a major priority for most Americans, and the fitness industry continues to reap the benefits. This segment has ample room for all kinds of gym-goers, from luxury athletic chains like Life Time to more accessible and affordable options like Planet Fitness. We took a look at visitation patterns to these two chains in Q2 2025 to understand their recent performance
Upscale gym chain Life Time has evolved into a wellness powerhouse over the years, offering its members access to fitness classes, luxury amenities, and even co-working and residential spaces.
Though the chain experienced impressive visit growth in 2024, YoY visits slowed slightly in 2025 – perhaps owing in part to the difficult comparison to a particularly strong 2024. Still, visit gaps were fairly minimal – Q2 2025 visits were just -0.6% lower than in Q2 2024, and average visits per location were just -1.5% lower year-over-year.
And while visits may have moderated somewhat in the first half of the year, Life Time seems confident about its market position, with several new locations in the pipeline for 2025 and 2026.
While Life Time caters to gym-goers looking for a luxury wellness experience, Planet Fitness offers easily accessible, judgment-free fitness zones that welcomes all kinds of gym-goers. This model, characterized by its low monthly fees and basic amenities, aims to appeal to a broad consumer base.
And foot traffic trends suggest that this model is not just working, it’s thriving: YoY visits were elevated by 10.1% in Q2 2025, and average visits per location grew by 6.2% in the same period. This growth comes on the heels of its elevated visits throughout H2 2024 – a promising sign for the chain as it begins a major expansion push.
A closer look at visit data highlights that visit frequency at Life Time is consistently higher than at Planet Fitness. Throughout 2025, visitors to Planet Fitness visited an average of 4.1 to 4.4 times a month, while visitors to Life Time visit an average of 5.7 to 6.2 times a month.
This reflects the two brands’ different models: Life Time aims to be a true one-stop-shop for wellness, combining co-working spaces and residential living with its fitness offerings, elements that encourage members to visit more frequently. Meanwhile, Planet Fitness’s focus on affordability and a straightforward gym-going experience attracts budget-conscious gym-goers whose visits, while slightly less frequent, align with their demand for simple, convenient fitness.
Life Time and Planet Fitness occupy two very different ends of the fitness and wellness spectrum – and both are proving that there’s room for variety in the gym segment.
How might the second half of the year look for these two chains?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven fitness insights.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
The dining industry showcased its agility over the past couple of years as it rapidly adapted to shifts in consumer preference brought on by COVID and rising prices. And with a new year around the corner, the pace of change shows no signs of slowing down.
This white paper harnesses location analytics, including visitation patterns, demographic data, and psychographic insights, to explore the trends that will shape the dining space in 2024. Which dining segments are likely to pull ahead of the pack? How are chains responding to changes in visitor behavior? And where are brands driving dining foot traffic by taking advantage of a new advertising possibility? Read on to find out how dining leaders can tap into emerging trends to stay ahead of the competition in 2024.
Comparing quarterly visits in 2023 and 2022 highlights the impact of the ongoing economic headwinds on the dining industry. The year started off strong, with year-over-year (YoY) dining visits up overall in Q1 2023 – perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted muted Q1 2022. And while overall dining growth stalled in Q2 2023, several segments – including QSR, Fast Casual, and Coffee – continued posting YoY visit increases, likely bolstered by consumers trading down from pricier full-service concepts.
Foot traffic slowed significantly in Q3 2023 as inflation and tighter consumer budgets constrained discretionary spending. Overall dining visits fell 2.4% YoY, and full-service restaurants – with their relatively high price point compared to other dining segments – seemed to be particularly impacted by the wider economic outlook. But the data also revealed some bright spots: Fast Casual still succeeded in maintaining positive YoY visit numbers and Coffee saw its Q3 visit grow an impressive 5.4% YoY. As the return to office continues, a pre-work coffee run or lunchtime foray to a fast-casual chain may continue propelling the two segments forward.
Restaurant visitation patterns have evolved over the past few years. Although an 8 PM seating was once the most coveted slot at fine-dining restaurants, recent visitation data suggests that sitting down to dinner earlier is rising in popularity.
But among the QSR segment, the opposite trend is emerging, with late-night visits rising. Analyzing hourly foot traffic to several major QSR chains reveals that the share of visits between 9 PM and 12 AM increased significantly between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023. Even Taco Bell – already known for its popularity among the late-night crowd – saw a substantial increase in late-night visits YoY – from 15.4% to 20.3%.
Who is driving the late night visit surge? One reason restaurants have been expanding their opening hours is to capture more Gen-Z diners, who tend to seek out nighttime dining options. But location intelligence reveals that younger millennials are also taking advantage of the later QSR closing times.
An analysis of the captured market for trade areas of top locations within one of Taco Bell’s major markets – the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan area – reveals a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) increase in “Singles & Starters.” The “Singles & Starters” segment is defined by Experian: Mosaic as young singles and starter families living in cities who are typically between 25 and 30 years old. As consumers continue to prioritize experiential entertainment and going out with friends, late-night dining may continue to see increased interest from young city-dwellers.
Millennials and Gen-Z consumers aren’t only heading to their favorite fast food joint for a late-night bite – these audience segments are also helping drive visits on the weekends. Smoothie King is one chain feeling the benefits of young, health-conscious consumers.
The chain, which opened in New Orleans, LA, in 1973 as a health food store, has since grown to over 1,100 locations nationwide and is currently expanding, focusing on the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA. The area’s Smoothie King venues have seen strong visitation patterns, particularly on the weekends – weekend visits were up 3.4% YoY in Q3 2023. The smoothie brand’s trade areas in the greater Dallas region is also seeing a YoY increase in weekend visits from “Young Professionals” – defined by the Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset as “well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs.”
While some dining chains are appealing to the late-night or weekend crowd, others are driving visits by appealing to sports lovers. How have recent rule changes around student athletes changed the restaurant game, and how can college football teams drive business in their hometowns?
College sports have long been a major moneymaker, with top-tier teams raking in billions of dollars annually. And as of 2021, college athletes can enjoy a piece of the significant fan following of college sports thanks to the change in the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules, which now allows student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Since then, multiple restaurants have jumped on the opportunity to partner with student athletes, some of whom have millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters have all signed college athletes to various brand deals.
How can brands ensure they partner with athletes their customers will want to engage with? Analyzing a chain’s audience by looking at the interests of residents in a given chain’s trade area can reveal which type of athlete will be the most attractive to each brand’s customer base. For example, data from Spatial.ai: Followgraph provides insight into the social media activity of consumers in a given trade area and can highlight desirable partnerships.
Examining the trade areas of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters, for instance, reveals that Sweetgreen’s visitors tended to have the largest share of Women’s Soccer followers. Conversely, Sweetgreen’s trade area had lower-than-average shares of College Football Fans or College Basketball Fans, while residents of the trade areas of the other three chains showed greater-than-average interest in these sports. Leveraging location intelligence can help companies choose brand deals that their customers resonate with and find the ideal athletes to represent the chain.
Finding the right college athlete partnership is one way for dining brands to appeal to college sports enthusiasts. But dining chains and venues located near major college stadiums also benefit from the popularity of their local team by enjoying a major game day visit boost.
One of the country’s most popular college football teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes, can draw millions of TV viewers, and its stadium has a capacity of 102,780 – one of the largest stadiums in the country. And while tailgating is a popular activity for Buckeyes fans, nearby restaurants are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the college football craze. Panera experienced a 235.3% increase on game days as compared to a typical day, Domino’s Pizza visits grew by 283.3%, and Tommy’s Pizza, a local pie shop, saw its visits jump by a whopping 600.9%.
This influx in diners also causes a major shift in game day visitor demographics, as revealed by changes in visitors at dining venues located near stadiums of two of the nation’s best college football teams – the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss Rebels. Based on Spatial.ai: Personalive data for the captured market of these dining venues, game day visitors tended to come from “Ultra Wealthy Families” when compared to visitors during a typical non-game day in September or October.
The analysis indicates that popular sporting events create a unique opportunity for restaurants near college stadiums to attract high-income customers game day after game day, year after year.
While some spend game day tailgating or visiting a college restaurant, others hold a viewing party – with a six-foot submarine. And the sub’s popularity extends beyond Superbowl Sundays. Sandwich chains including Jersey Mike’s, Firehouse Subs, Jimmy John’s, and Subway (recently purchased by the same company that owns Jimmy John’s) have seen sustained YoY increases in visits and visits per venue in the first three quarters of 2023.
Some of the growth to these chains may be related to their affordability, a draw at all times but especially during a period marked by consumer uncertainty and rising food costs. And subway leaders seem to be seizing the moment and striking while the iron is hot – Jersey Mike’s opened 350 stores in 2023 and still saw its YoY visits per venue grow by 6.6%. And Subway reported ten consecutive quarters of positive sales, a promising sign for its new owner.
The love for a healthy, affordable sandwich extends across all income levels, with all four chains seeing a range in their visitors' median household income (HHI). Out of the four chains analyzed, Jersey Mike’s – which has long prioritized a suburban, middle-income customer – had the highest trade area median household income of the four chains at $77.3K/year. Subway, known for its affordability, had the lowest, with $62.9K/year. The variance in median HHI combined with the strong foot traffic growth shows that when it comes to sandwiches, there’s something for everyone.
Persistent inflation and declining consumer sentiment may pose serious challenges for the dining space, but emerging trends are helping boost some restaurants. Customers seeking out a late-night bite drive visits to QSR chains, and health-conscious diners are boosting foot traffic to smoothie bars and sandwich shops. Meanwhile, sports sponsorships and game-day restaurant visits can provide a boost to dining businesses that take advantage of these opportunities.
“Retail media networks have turned retailers into ad moguls. That’s a huge change and nobody yet understands all the implications of it.”
Constantine von Hoffman, MARTECH
Companies operating consumer-facing brick-and-mortar venues traditionally relied on selling goods and services as their primary revenue stream. But recently, leading retailers such as Walmart and Target have begun to leverage their immense store fleet into a powerful advertising platform.
Online retailers have been tapping into the advertising power of their digital sites for years by relying on various automated tools to show third-party advertisements to relevant consumer segments. But now, retailers with a strong offline presence can also leverage physical marketing impressions and focus their campaigns while reaching consumers at the point of purchase. Retailers have long recognized the intent that drives a store visit, and understanding the full value of leveraging that visit to its full extent is an important new frontier.
Major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones.
And in spite of the gloomy predictions regarding the future of brick and mortar retail, major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones. Monthly numbers of visitors to Walmart and Target significantly outpace the brands’ online reach, according to web data from Similarweb. So although, up until recently, these brands have focused their media placements on their digital channels, it is becoming increasingly clear that these chains’ physical stores hold powerful – and currently untapped – advertising potential.
Online visitor data source: similarweb.com
And with the recent rise in digital advertising costs, retail media networks are becoming more attractive for companies looking to make the most of their ad budget. Retail media networks can also help brands reach rural communities, elderly Americans, and other consumer segments that are currently underserved by digital advertisers.
This white paper explores several retailers on the cutting edge of the retail media network revolution. Keep reading to find out how advertisers can use retail media networks to promote to hard-to-reach consumers, segment their ad spending, and optimize their campaigns.
Residents of rural areas use the internet less frequently, and have lower levels of technology ownership than their urban and suburban counterparts. As a result, companies that stick to digital advertising may have a harder time reaching rural consumers. Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can fill in the gaps and help brands promote their products and services to this hard-to-reach audience.
Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can help brands advertise to hard-to-reach audiences.
Dollar General saw significant success over the pandemic, with the current economic climate continuing to benefit the brand. Between January and August 2022, nationwide visits to Dollar General venues were 35.6% higher than they were between January and August 2019, while the number of visitors increased 25.4% in the same period.Visit numbers aggregate the visits to the chain’s various locations in a given period, while visitor numbers track the number of people who enter the brand’s stores.
The company has also been operating a media network since 2018. The Dollar General Media Network (DGMN) enables advertisers to reach Dollar General consumers across the company’s channels to build awareness both digitally and in physical spaces. Advertisers with DGMN can display in-store bollard, blade, and wipe stand signs, security pedestals, basket bottomers, and shelfAdz to deliver in-store messaging from parking lot to purchase. Recently, Dollar General announced that its ad platform was now working with 21 new advertising partners, including Unilever, General Mills, Hershey’s, and Colgate-Palmolive.
Embracing the Power of the Small Market
Advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Dollar General has been serving rural residents for years, with the majority of the company’s stores located in communities with fewer than 20,00 residents. And while the brand is growing nationwide, Dollar General’s strength is particularly evident in small markets – which means that advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Comparing year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) visit change to Dollar General stores in metropolitan and micropolitan core based statistical areas (CBSAs) highlights the company’s success in smaller markets. According to the United States Office of Management and Budget, metropolitan and micropolitan CBSAs have over and under 50,000 residents, respectively. Since January 2022, monthly Yo3Y visit growth to Dollar General venues in select Texas micropolitans has consistently outpaced foot traffic to nearby metropolitan areas. While the Sherman-Denison metro area saw August 2022 foot traffic hit a solid 24.5% increase over August 2019, the Gainesville, Texas micro area – around 35 miles east of Sherman – saw its foot traffic increase 54.5% in the same period.
Dollar General’s presence across a significant number of smaller markets means that advertising partners can use the growing DGMN to increase awareness and drive purchase consideration among these harder-to-reach consumers.
In the digital space, three tech giants – Alphabet (previously Google), Meta (previously Facebook), and Amazon – enjoy over 60% of the digital ad revenue in the United States. This means that companies are competing for impressions on a small number of platforms – and smaller brands geared at specific consumer segments may need to spend significant advertising budgets to outbid the larger players. Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms, and enable advertisers to diversify their ad spend, increase their (physical) impressions, focus on more specialized channels to better reach their audience, and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Albertsons launched its retail media network, Albertsons Media Collective, in November 2021 with the goal of delivering “digitally native, shopper-centric and engaging branded content to the company’s ever-growing network of shoppers.” Currently, the grocer’s media network is primarily digital, but Albertsons’ head of retail media products Evan Hovorka recognizes the importance of leveraging in-store assets to deliver a unique advertising experience. The company is testing out smart carts that link with “Albertsons for U” loyalty program to display ads to shoppers – and Albertsons is likely to find more ways to reach in-store consumers as it continues to develop its retail media network.
The chain is also one of the most popular grocers nationwide. With the exception of March and April 2022, when inflation and high gas prices temporarily halted growth, the brand’s monthly visits and visitor numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Monthly visits for Albertsons in August 2022 were up 5.7% and monthly visitors were up 5.4% on a Yo3Y basis. This means that advertisers with Albertsons can increase their reach and grow their physical ad impressions just by displaying their ads in Albertsons locations and tapping into the chain’s growing visitor base.
Looking beyond Albertsons' nationwide average foot traffic trends reveals some important regional differences. Between January and July 2022, visits to the brands increased 4.6% in Wyoming on a Yo3Y basis, while foot traffic to the brand’s locations in Oregon jumped 18.5% compared to January through July 2019. This means that a brand looking to reach consumers in Oregon can contract with Albertsons’ media network to show its ads to a fast-growing pool of visitors.
A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions, while more visits from fewer visitors can drive repeated exposures.
Diving deeper into the data reveals an additional layer of insight. Some states with only moderate visit growth are seeing a surge in visitor numbers, while other states are seeing a drop in visitor numbers but a rise in visits. A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions and more people exposed to the ads, while more visits from fewer visitors translates to more overall impressions that can drive repeated exposure among a smaller group of visitors. So advertisers can use segmented foot traffic data to decide where to focus their marketing depending on the goal of the campaign.
For example, Wyoming's moderate increase in visits hides a significant spike in visitors, which means that advertisers to Albertsons venues in Wyoming can get their impressions before a large number of different potential consumers. Meanwhile, Oregon's 18.5% increase in visits is the result of just a 9.4% increase in visitors – so Albertsons is cultivating an increasingly loyal following in the Beaver State, and the grocer’s advertising partners can expect that the same visitors will be exposed to their brand repeatedly.
So companies that want to increase unique ad impressions and build awareness can advertise to Albertsons customers in Wyoming, where their ads will be seen by a large number of new people. But in Oregon, companies may want to promote a campaign that focuses on moving Albertsons visitors through their funnel.
In order to accurately assess the ad distribution patterns in each location, brands operating retail media networks need to understand both visits and visitors trends in each region and for the chain as a whole.
Advertisers with retail media networks can use foot traffic data to refine their geographic audience by identifying the consumer preferences of a given brick-and-mortar brand on a store or city level.
In August 2020, CVS Pharmacy launched its media network, the CVS Media Exchange (cMx). The company estimates that 76% of U.S. consumers live within five miles of at least one store, and the cMx allows partners to tap into the chain’s reach by giving advertisers access to CVS’ online and offline channels, including in-store ads.
Although CVS has been closing locations recently, the brand is still one of the strongest players in the brick-and-mortar retail space. Its 2022 visit numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels nationwide, and data from CVS locations in leading cities shows that its Yo3Y visits per venue and visitor numbers are even higher.
CVS’s nationally distributed fleet means that the brand’s locations in different regions attract distinct consumer bases.
CVS carries a varied product mix of daily essentials in addition to its healthcare offerings, so the brand attracts a wide range of consumer segments. And the chain’s nationally distributed store fleet means that CVS has locations in different regions that attract distinct consumer bases who do not all have the same lifestyle preferences. By using foot traffic data to understand the regional consumer preferences of CVS consumers beyond the store, advertising partners can refine their market and make the most of the cMx.
Different regions have different fitness cultures. Chains catering to health-conscious consumers can use retail media networks and foot traffic data to focus their efforts on areas where inhabitants exhibit a high demand for regular workouts.
Analyzing cross-visit data from CVS locations across five major urban centers in the U.S. shows that the percentage of those who also visited gyms or fitness studios varied significantly across each DMA. In the New York area, 62.7% of those who visited CVS in Q2 2022 also visited a fitness venue during that period, in contrast with only 38.0% of CVS visitors around Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX in the same period. This information can help advertising partners in the health and wellness space decide where to place their campaigns.
Looking at cross-visit data on a city-wide level can provide a sense of the consumer culture in each area, but advertisers that dive into foot traffic data for individual stores can refine their messaging even further.
On average, 43.8% of CVS visitors in the Chicago DMA also visited a gym in Q2 2022. But drilling down to the top CVS locations in the city reveals that the rate of cross-visits varies significantly from location to location. Both the E 53rd Street and W 103rd Street locations have a relatively high share of visitors who visit fitness locations – 52.5% and 49.2%, respectively. Meanwhile fitness cross-visits were at just 36.6% for the South Stony Island Avenue location. Advertisers promoting health and wellness related products and services may want to focus on the 103rd St. and 53rd St. CVS locations.
Diving into a customer’s behavior and preferences outside the store can help retail media network operators and advertising partners find the areas and locations best suited for each type of ad.
Cross-visit data is one way to identify consumer preferences beyond the physical store. Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus their marketing on the most appropriate locations.
Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus on the most appropriate locations.
Over the past couple of years, Macy’s has been finding ways to reinvent itself and optimize its store fleet – and foot traffic data indicates that the retailer's efforts are paying off. In the first half of 2022, Macy’s exceeded its H1 2021 overall visit and average visits per venue numbers and posted a positive year-over-year (YoY) visitor count. In Q2 2022, despite the wider economic challenges, Macy’s visitors, visits, and average visits per venue saw YoY increases of 3.4%, 4.0% and 9.9% increases.
Like CVS, Macy’s launched its media network in August 2020, and by February 2021 the Macy’s Media Network was already generating $35 million annually. In addition to advertising on the company’s digital channels, Macy’s also offers partners the use of in-store screen displays, package inserts, and the brand’s iconic billboard in New York City’s Herald Square.
Advertisers can optimize their advertising by analyzing the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores.
Advertisers that understand the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores can optimize their advertising efforts. While looking at variations in cross-visit trends is one way to identify interested brick-and-mortar consumers, diving into visitor’s digital behavior and online preferences can also provide valuable insights.
Tools such as Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb, which tracks online engagement with various trends and topics by neighborhood, can reveal how offline consumers behave online. An index score of 100 indicates that consumers in an area have an average interest in a given topic, while scores over (or under) 100 indicate that consumers are more (or less) interested in the topic when compared to the national average interest.
We used Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb tool to analyze the online behavior of consumers in the True Trade Areas (TTA) of five Macy’s locations in the Philadelphia, PA DMA – and found that residents of the different TTAs stores showed differing indexes. For example, the Macy’s in the King of Prussia Mall location showed a high index of 161 in “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers,” while the Cottman Ave. location had an only slightly above average index of 102. This means that advertisers of men’s business apparel may see more results by focussing their advertising on visitors to the King of Prussia location.
Advertisers that use retail media networks do a lot more than just reach in-store shoppers. Stores exist in the physical world, so advertisers can also reach passers-by through physical venues’ windows, blade signs – or in the case of Macy’s, through its Herald Square Billboard. Here too, foot traffic data can reveal the consumer preferences of people walking by the sign.
We looked at the online behavior in the TTA around the traffic pin on the corner where the billboard is located (Broadway/6th Ave and 34th Street in New York) to understand which advertisers might benefit most from a billboard at that location. While the “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers” category was over-indexed compared to the national average, as would be expected in midtown Manhattan, “Women’s Fashion Brand Shoppers” had an even higher index. “Gen Z Apparel Shoppers” were over-represented, but “Leather Good Shoppers” and ”Athleisure Shoppers” were under-represented. So a brand that carries both elegant wear and athleisure may want to display its less casual clothing lines on the billboard.
Understanding how consumers behave both on and offline can help retail media networks and advertising partners promote their campaigns most effectively.
To transform their physical store fleet into a media network, brands and companies need to analyze the reach of each venue. The same chain operating in multiple regions may be reaching different types of consumers in each area, or even in various neighborhoods of the same city. These distinct audiences may have contrasting products, brands, and shopping preferences.
Retailers that leverage their brick and mortar presence can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
Retailers can also partner with advertising partners who wish to promote goods and services not carried by the retailer. For this to succeed, the retailer will need to analyze how consumers behave outside of its stores. Understanding what characterizes the overall behavior of consumers in each locations’ trade area will allow the retailer to reach a larger audience and truly compete with the digital giants. And by leveraging their brick and mortar presence, brick and mortar retail can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
