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Gym visits flourished at the start of 2024, as consumers made their yearly New Years resolutions and flocked to fitness clubs nationwide. But how did category leaders fare in Q2 2024? We dove into the data to find out – zooming in on Planet Fitness, a major player in the fitness space.
Throughout H1 2024, Planet Fitness experienced consistent YoY visit growth, finishing out Q2 2024 with a quarterly increase of 6.3% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though some of this visit growth is due to Planet Fitness’ ongoing expansion, the average number of visits to each of the chain’s gyms also increased YoY during most of the analyzed period.
Indeed, only in March and May 2024 did the average number of visits to each Planet Fitness location decline YoY. And a look at the weekly breakdown of visits to Planet Fitness shows that these declines may be due, in part, to calendar shifts.
Location analytics reveal that though some people like to hit the gym on weekends, many customers prefer to get their exercise in on regular work days, especially at the start of the week: Throughout H1 2024, Planet Fitness drew the most visits on Mondays (17.4% of weekly visits), Tuesdays (17.7%), and Wednesdays (17.2%), with attendance dropping steadily as the week wore on. And both March and May 2024 – the two months that saw visits per location decline YoY – contained fewer non-holiday Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays than the equivalent periods of 2023.
Planet Fitness’ continued visit success appears to be driven, in part, by its growing share of frequent visitors. Gym visitation is highly seasonal – with visits slumping during the holidays and then spiking in January, as people vow to double down on exercise routines.
A look at changes in the share of Planet Fitness visitors hitting the gym at least four times per month (roughly, once a week) reveals a similar pattern. The share of frequent visitors is at its highest in January, remains elevated through April or May, and declines as the year draws to a close. (January 2022 deviated from this pattern, likely due to the Omicron resurgence.)
Despite these seasonal fluctuations, the share of visitors making weekly stops at Planet Fitness has been on an overall upward trajectory – going higher each year between 2021 and 2023. And though this rise leveled off in 2024 amidst a stabilizing fitness market, frequent visitor rates remained high in 2024, with some months seeing continued YoY increases. This elevated loyalty is good news for Planet Fitness – since more engaged customers are more likely to renew or even upgrade their memberships.
With value still top of mind for many consumers, Planet Fitness’ famously low prices have positioned the chain for success. Will this positive momentum continue as consumers adjust to the chain’s first basic membership price increase in 26 years?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Now that we’ve cleared the halfway point for 2024 with retailers preparing for back-to-school shopping (and Q2 2024 reporting season), we thought we’d take stock of where we stand from a retail category perspective. Last year, we looked at visit per location data by retail category at the halfway point for the year, which proved to be a useful indicator for what to expect for the rest of the year. We thought we’d revisit the analysis to give some perspective of what to expect in the months to come.
Needless to say, it’s been another volatile year for most retailers, with a tepid start to the year due to weather, followed by solid event/holiday spending in February/March, and a lackluster April (though partly the result of the Easter holiday calendar shift). May, June, and July visitation data offered some encouraging signs, with year-over-year visits increasing to a mid-single-digit level (according to Placer's Industry Trends report). Importantly, increased visits won’t necessarily translate into the same level of sales increases, as visits are continuously being driven by deals/lower price points for many categories.
Based on the positive trendline for retail in general, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the majority of the 25 retail categories we’ve presented show positive growth from a visit per location year-over-year perspective (below).
A few notable takeaways from the visit per location analysis:
Last year, our midpoint visit per location trends gave us some ideas as to how the second half of the year might shake out. Based on our first half 2024 visitation data, we expect (1) consumers to continue prioritize value in the second half of the year, especially those chains that have been able to create excitement/newness for their value assortment; (2) consumers will continue to prioritize holidays/events, which bodes well for back-to-school, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas; (3) we will continue to see better balance between experiences and goods this year (as we've discussed in the past).
Retailer summer deals are in full swing, with promotional events like Amazon Prime Day and Nordstrom Anniversary Sale, Target Circle Week, and Macy’s All Star Week taking place over the past two weeks. The summer has come to signify the first large scale, cross-industry retailer push to engage with consumers and also test new promotional strategies with shoppers.
Target’s reinvigoration of its loyalty program, Target Circle, launched in April as a streamlined program with more perceived value for members and created a new paid tier called Target Circle 360. Target Circle Week, which took place between July 7-13, focused more on loyalty program members than previous iterations of the event to drive visits by loyal shoppers. The retailer promoted items across discretionary and essential categories, an effort meant to offset the challenges in the discretionary side of the business this year. Mass merchants have been especially challenged compared to warehouse clubs in the superstore category, and Circle Week, especially as the first event of the retailer's summer deals, is a barometer of what’s to come.
According to our foot traffic measurements, Target Circle Week was successful in driving incremental traffic growth, resulting in the highest percentage of growth in visits so far in 2024 on a year-over-five-year basis.
Circle Week also saw a slightly higher dwell time, with visitors spending an average of 29 minutes in store, about a minute higher than 2024 year to date. The week performed well in visits exceeding 45 minutes compared to the year-to-date percentage of visits, which could signal that shoppers coming in for deals spend longer browsing and purchasing. There was also a higher percentage of weekday visits during Circle Week compared to 2024 overall, a promising sign for the week-long event.
Looking specifically at individual store locations that over performed during Circle Week, one that stood out is Target’s original large format store location in Katy, TX. This location opened in fall 2022 to much fanfare; it features a larger curbside pick-up area, multiple shop-in-shop concepts, and a larger grocery footprint. Traffic to the Katy location also increased the most in the week of July 8-14, but it far exceeded the total traffic growth to Target, with visits up almost 55% compared to the same week in 2023, when Target’s event ran last year. Circle Week also kept visitors in store longer at the Katy location, with dwell times increasing by 2 minutes on average compared to 2024 year-to-date.
With the success of this event in bringing in visitors, it will be interesting to see how Target tries to maintain the momentum through the back half of the year. With the announcement of price cuts and a renewed focus on providing as much value as possible to consumers, the enhanced Target Circle program appears to be bolstering those initiatives. As we get further away from the other retailer deal day events as well, we will be able to fully examine the effectiveness of this year’s summer promotional period and also provide more observations as we approach the holiday season.
Using Placer's Return to Office report, we see that Miami continues to be the champion when it comes to returning to office. With a whopping 88% recovery rate, it is heads above the other cities, with NYC coming in at 73% for the month of June. Rounding out the top 5 recoveries are Southern cities like Atlanta (66%), Charlotte (64%), and Forth Worth (64%). These cities are all above the nationwide average for return-to-office, which is 63%.
By contrast, two of the major West Coast cities--San Francisco and Los Angeles lag below the nationwide return rate at 45% and 55%, respectively.
Other major cities in the Midwest, like Chicago and Detroit, are seeing similar rates of lagging return-to-office. In Chicago, 55% have returned compared to Jan 2020 and in Detroit, only 42%.
Moving over to the East Coast, Philadelphia and Washington DC--both at 57% RTO--are also below the nationwide average.
The good news for offices is that taken as a whole, we are seeing upward trends in employees returning to office, albeit perhaps slower than those in commercial real estate or the C-suite would like.
It’s often a good sign when Placer data reflects positive year-over-year growth and in the case of Bass Pro Shops, that’s exactly what we’re seeing for the months of June 2023-June 2024 (note April is down, but that is partially due to last year’s April having five weekends instead of four).
Bass Pro Shops skipped a slight beat immediately after COVID in spring 2020, but by early summer had already regained its store traffic as everyone took to the great outdoors in their quest for social distancing. Ever since, it’s been business as usual with similar peaks around Black Friday weekend and the week before Christmas.
Bass Pro Shop’s footprint is particularly strong in the eastern half of the US. They acquired Cabela’s a few years back and maintained the separate brands. This acquisition gave them an additional presence in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain states.
Both brands over index for the segments Blue Collar Suburbs, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, Suburban Boomers, and Wealthy Suburban Families per Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. Small Town and Rural High Income also over index at Cabela’s.
RBI and Yum! Brands hold some of America’s favorite restaurants in their portfolios. How are these parent companies and their leading chains faring at the year’s midway point? We dove into the data to find out.
RBI shined in Q2 2024 – seeing a 1.7% increase in visits and a 2.2% increase in visits per location, YoY – due partly to expanding footprints across several of its brands.
Firehouse, Popeyes, and Tim Hortons’ growth likely played a part in overall visit gains to each chain during the quarter. And though Popeyes and Tim Hortons saw minor visit-per-location gaps emerge as the chains added new locations, the fact that this metric remained nearly on par with last year’s levels shows that the chains’ expansions are not diluting existing demand. Both Popeyes and Tim Hortons are likely to see YoY visits per location pick up as each of their new restaurants gains momentum.
Accounting for 69.3% of visits to RBI in Q2 2024, Burger King’s positive foot traffic during the period had a significant impact on its parent company’s success.
RBI management cited equipment upgrades, remodels and advertising as recent drivers of visit growth for Burger King – which despite the shuttering of dozens of underperforming restaurants over the past year, saw a 1.5% chain-wide YoY visit increase in Q2 2024.
And analyzing visit-per-location trends at Burger King shows that the chain’s rightsizing strategy is paying dividends: Since Q2 2023, YoY visits per location have been on a steady incline, closing out Q2 2024 with a 4.3% increase. This indicates that as individual Burger King locations have shut their doors, the remaining restaurants have gotten even busier.
Taco Bell, which accounted for 70.5% of visits to Yum! Brands' restaurants in Q2 2024, drove visits to Yum! in much the same way that Burger King gave a boost to RBI. During the quarter, visits to Taco Bell increased 5.0% YoY while visits per location rose 3.5%. And the taco chain propelled foot traffic growth for Yum! Brands as a whole – with YoY visits and visits per location up a respective 3.1% and 3.5% in Q2 2024.
Taco Bell is the leader in Yum! Brands’ portfolio for good reason. The chain is well-known as one of the world’s most innovative companies. And the taco leader appears to have done it again with “Taco Tuesday” specials. On the Tuesdays of March 26th, April 9th, and April 16th, 2024 the chain offered select menu-favorites for $1 for one hour. This promotion led into a separate $5 Dollar Taco Discovery Box deal, which was available on “Taco Tuesdays” between April 23rd and June 4th, 2024.
The data suggests that both of these promotions drove substantial foot traffic. Beginning on March 26th, Tuesday visits to Taco Bell rose significantly compared to the H1 2024 Tuesday average. And even after the promotions ended, “Taco Tuesdays” retained their draw – perhaps aided by the subsequent launch of a summer menu and the company’s formal entrance into the value meal wars with its much-vaunted Luxe Craving’s Box.
Led by their flagship restaurants, RBI and Yum! Brands appear to be on the right track. The strategic expansion of certain chains and the rightsizing of others has paid off in visit growth for RBI, while Yum! continues to strike it big with Taco Bell’s winning promotions.
For more dining updates, visit Placer.ai.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
