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The return to office (RTO) has been on an upswing, with employers across industries cracking down on remote work and requiring employees to put in more face time. Indeed, July 2024 emerged as the busiest in-office month since the pandemic. But what happened in August?
We dove into the data to find out.
August is a time for family vacations – and millions of Americans planned to take the roads and skies this summer to get away from it all and enjoy some downtime. So it may come as no surprise that the accelerated mandate-driven RTO seen in recent months – moderated somewhat in August, with a larger visit gap compared to the equivalent period of 2019 than that seen in July or in June.
Still, despite an end-of-summer slump, the nationwide office recovery appears to be very much underway. Office foot traffic last month was just 31.2% below pre-pandemic levels. Or put another way, August 2024 office visits were 68.8% of what they were in August 2019.
Drilling down into the data for major urban hubs throughout the country shows a continuation of recent trends, with Miami, New York, Atlanta, and Dallas outperforming the nationwide baseline. In Miami and New York, office visits were nearly 90.0% and 85.0%, respectively, of what they were pre-pandemic. And Atlanta, where employers from the CDC to UPS have begun enforcing stricter in-office policies, held onto its high ranking, with visits 75.6% of what they were in August 2019.
Indeed, Atlanta, which has seen a surge in office leasing activity, saw 7.3% year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in August 2024 – followed by Miami (5.7%). San Francisco – which despite lagging behind other cities compared to pre-pandemic, has been making steady YoY gains – came in third with a YoY visit increase of 3.0%.
Who are the employees driving this summer’s accelerated recovery?
Analyzing the trade areas of office buildings nationwide reveals that between June and August 2024, the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visits to office buildings (their captured markets) continued to see a decline in their share of households with children – indicating that parents still account for fewer office visits than they did pre-pandemic. Employees with children, it seems, remain especially likely to place a premium on flexibility – embracing work routines that allow them to more efficiently juggle home and work responsibilities.
Over the same period, the share of one-person households in offices’ captured markets rose substantially, highlighting the important role played by young professionals – who may be more likely to be single – in today’s office recovery. Whether driven by a desire to embrace in-office career growth and mentorship opportunities, or by a craving for more social interaction, these employees are returning to the office in ever greater numbers.
With the school year underway and summer vacations already a not-so-distant memory, office foot traffic is likely to resume its upward trajectory. Will September 2024 set a new post-pandemic RTO record?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Malls ended summer with a bang. In May and June 2024, indoor malls, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls all experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, with indoor malls – which offer an escape from the sweltering heat – leading the way.
In July 2024, all three mall types experienced slight YoY visit gaps. But these were likely due to a calendar shift rather than to any flagging back-to-school momentum: July 2024 contained one less Saturday and Sunday than the equivalent period of 2023, when malls draw some of their biggest crowds. (In January-August 2024, weekends accounted for 39.0% of visits to indoor malls, 35.6% for open-air shopping centers, and 43.0% for outlet malls.) This shift, which likely had the most pronounced impact on outlet malls, may have obscured stronger YoY performance in July 2024.
And this year’s intense weather didn’t stop consumers from visiting malls in droves to take advantage of back-to-school shopping – which was in full swing by August 2024. That month saw the most substantial YoY foot traffic growth of the analyzed period, with YoY visit increases of 7.3% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air shopping centers, and 6.1% for outlet malls.
Who shopped at malls in August 2024? With back-to-school shopping being a significant motivator for consumers, it may come as no surprise that college students and families with children were overrepresented among end-of-summer mall hoppers – though not for all mall types.
Analysis of all three mall segments’ captured markets reveals that in August 2024, the share of college students in the trade areas of indoor malls and open-air shopping centers exceeded the nationwide average by 67% and 170%, respectively. These malls may be popular with college students due to their greater accessibility for students without cars, and for their recreational atmosphere – making them a good place to catch up with friends while shopping.
Meanwhile, the captured markets of outlet malls included slightly higher-than-average shares of households with children, perhaps as families on tight back-to-school budgets prioritized steep discounts. Indoor malls were also slightly more likely than average to draw this demographic.
With Summer 2024 in the books, it’s fair to say that mall foot traffic thrived during this critical retail season. How will mall visits shape up come spring?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

In 2024, auto parts retailers are continuing to see visit growth compared to last year. We dove into the data for three of the industry’s leaders – AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and NAPA Auto Parts – to explore the consumer behavior and profiles behind the space’s ongoing success.
Auto parts retail visits have been bolstered in recent months by still-high vehicle prices – which have incentivized many cash-strapped consumers to fix up the car they have rather than buy a new one. To be sure, the industry hasn’t been entirely spared the effects of inflation, which has caused many consumers to tighten their (seat)belts and defer non-essential car repairs. Still, one of the key factors benefiting the space has been the greater prevalence of older vehicles on the road, which are more likely to need significant – and essential – maintenance.
Since the start of 2024, AutoZone and O’Reilly have sustained consistent year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit growth. And though NAPA saw mild visit gaps in March, June, and August – coinciding with traffic fall-off to some of the repair shops it supplies – it too experienced YoY increases throughout most of the analyzed period.
As auto parts inflation continues to wane in 2024, more consumers may begin taking on repairs they postponed last year, providing these retailers with continued foot traffic boosts.
Less affluent consumers are more likely to be deterred from buying a new ride by high prices and interest rates. And analyzing the demographic characteristics of visitors to AutoZone, O’Reilly, and NAPA reveals that in H1 2024, the median household incomes (HHIs) of the chains’ captured markets were indeed significantly lower than those of new car dealerships ($75.6K).
The data reveals a divide between consumers in the market for new cars – who generally have higher income levels – and those that frequent auto parts retailers to invest in their current set of wheels. And consumers seeking to repair rather than replace may be even more inclined to do so while vehicle prices and financing costs remain elevated.
Analysis of consumer spending habits provides a further indication that AutoZone, O’Reilly and NAPA’s audiences are more likely to invest in upgrades and repairs than in the purchase of a new vehicle.
In H1 2024, residents of AutoZone and O’Reilly’s captured markets spent 17% less annually on buying used cars than the nationwide average, while residents of NAPA’s captured market spent 14% less.
And residents of all three auto parts retailers’ trade areas spent even less on new car buying. In H1 2024, AutoZone’s captured market spent 23% less on new cars than the nationwide average, and O’Reilly’s and NAPA’s captured markets spent 22% and 18% less, respectively.
AutoZone and O’Reilly’s relatively large share of DIY consumers – those who repair or upgrade their cars on their own to save money – likely contributed to their trade areas’ smaller car buying expenditures. Meanwhile, the slightly larger spend on both new and used cars in NAPA’s trade area – though still significantly lower than the nationwide average – may be due to the retailer’s predominantly commercial business.
Auto parts chains have been riding strong tailwinds on the road to success – and they appear geared up for more foot traffic success in the homestretch of 2024. As more older vehicles stay on the road and car-buying costs remain high, robust demand for parts is likely to continue.
Will the auto parts industry accelerate even further in the months to come? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

It’s that time of year again. On August 22nd, Starbucks launched its much-vaunted autumn menu, including the iconic Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). We dove into the data to see what happened on the big day – and how Starbucks visitation patterns were impacted by the much-anticipated release.
Last year, Starbucks broke with tradition to move its PSL launch from Tuesday to Thursday. And perhaps due to Thursday’s proximity to the weekend (especially in the age of the TGIF work week), the step has proven advantageous – generating a sustained visit spike lasting through the weekend.
On Thursday, August 22nd, 2024, foot traffic to Starbucks surged 24.1% higher than the coffee giant’s daily average for the previous eight Thursdays. And the PSL effect worked its magic throughout the weekend, with visits to Starbucks on the following Friday, Saturday, and Sunday significantly elevated compared to recent daily averages for those days of the week.
Since its debut in 2003, Starbucks’ PSL has become part of the cultural landscape. Each year, the beverage’s release generates a social media frenzy. And between 2021 and 2023, the number of people visiting Starbucks on Pumpkin Spice Latte launch day increased steadily.
Last year, the PSL visit spike reached new heights, with foot traffic 27.1% higher than on August 27th, 2019 – the last pre-pandemic PSL launch. And despite Starbucks’ recent challenges, visits on PSL day held steady this year, maintaining last year’s impressive gains.
Comparing visits on August 22nd, 2024 to recent Thursday visit averages across the continental U.S. highlights the broad appeal enjoyed by Starbucks’ fall menu. Every analyzed state enjoyed a visit bump – though the extent of the boost varied considerably between regions.
Many southern states – including Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, saw only slight foot traffic bumps, perhaps due in part to the region’s warmer weather, which may render the early autumn launch less compelling. (Mississippi in particular, it seems, really couldn’t care less about Pumpkin Spice.) But in other areas, led by North Dakota (45.5%), Kansas (42.6%), Utah (42.2%), Iowa (41.3%), and Pennsylvania (39.5%), visits skyrocketed.
Starbucks’ successful PSL launch shows that even as consumers count their pennies, people are finding room in their budgets for sweet, cozy indulgences that don’t break the bank. What does the winning release portend for the upcoming winter season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Back-to-school shopping is a major driver of retail visits and sales – and this year, spending on the upcoming school year was set to be the second-highest on record. So with the frenzy winding down, we took a look at how several key retail categories and chains performed during this important season.
Overall, retail rallied throughout July and August, with weekly visits to major back-to-school categories – including superstores, department stores, and other apparel retailers – mainly outperforming last year’s visit levels. Though department stores and apparel chains saw very slight YoY declines in late July, all the analyzed categories enjoyed YoY boosts beginning the week of August 5th. And since the back-to-school season is traditionally a high-traffic period, the ability of these categories to sustain YoY growth is particularly impressive.
Digging deeper into individual brands reveals substantial visit boosts at superstores Target and Walmart and warehouse membership club Costco.
Target, already enjoying positive momentum from summer sales events, drove visits even higher with steep discounts on essential back-to-school items. In addition to attracting parents on the hunt for kids’ school supplies, Target has emerged as a favorite destination for college students seeking to load up on dorm decor and other collegian necessities. And between the weeks of July 9th, 2024 and August 19th, 2024, the retailer saw weekly visits jump a remarkable 9.7% to 20.8% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) weekly average. Walmart and Costco, too, saw significant visit boosts in July August, as they drew crowds with discount and bulk offerings.
The strong performance of these retailers during the back-to-school season bodes well as they head into the critical holiday shopping period. With momentum on their side, Target, Walmart, and Costco are poised to capitalize on their competitive pricing and value offerings, potentially driving another period of robust growth.
Back-to-school often means outfitting kids and teens with new clothing, and off-price retailers – including Burlington, Marshalls, Ross, and T.J. Maxx – are reaping the benefits. With a reputation for low prices and everything from apparel to backpacks, these chains are popular choices for the back-to-school crowd. And this year, weekly visits to these retailers got a significant boost, with August 19th foot traffic up 11.0% at Burlington, 13.9% at Marshalls, 6.0% at Ross, and 15.8% at T.J. Maxx, compared to a YTD weekly average.
Superstores, department stores, and apparel retailers aren’t the only ones to benefit from the back-to-school craze – office supply stores, predictably, also experience major boosts. While weekly visits to Office Depot, OfficeMax (both owned by The ODP Corporation), and Staples had lagged behind the chains’ year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit averages during April and May, they began to recover in early July. By August, visits were surging, with the week of August 19th showing increases of 24.4% for Office Depot, 32.7% for OfficeMax, and 39.2% for Staples.
Getting a pair of new shoes for school is another time-honored tradition – and DICK’s Sporting Goods has heeded the call with massive markdowns. The chain drew back-to-school shoe and apparel shoppers with a major 50%-off sale, and visits jumped significantly – peaking during the week of August 12th at 40.5% above a January 1st, 2024 baseline.
Hibbett, meanwhile, supercharged its back-to-school campaign with discounts and free children’s haircuts, offered between July 28th and August 25th at different locations. And the events boosted foot traffic dramatically, with the week of July 29th seeing a whopping 76.1% visit increase compared to a January 1st, 2024 baseline. Though visits to both sporting goods chains began to taper off as August wore on, they remained elevated – serving as a reminder of the power of back-to-school shopping and sales.
Back-to-school season remains one of the most important shopping periods of the year, with significant consumer demand drawing visit growth across major retail categories.
Can these retailers continue drawing on this momentum into the holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

In July & August 2024, Placer.ai released multiple white papers: Los Angeles Office Trends in 2024, Q2 2024 – Retail & Restaurant Review, Domestic Tourism Trends in NYC and LA, 2024 Hotel Visit Trends, Emerging Trends for CRE in 2024, and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge.
Below is a taste of our findings from two white papers: 2024 Hotel Visit Trends and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge. The two white papers take a look at the visitation data to explore how leading hotel chains are driving visits in 2024, as well as exploring how Walmart, Costco, and Target are maintaining their success.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
Analyzing the captured markets* of Upper Midscale chains Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the country’s most popular retailers, drawing millions of shoppers each day. Each has distinct strengths that cater to their unique customer bases, helping them thrive in a competitive market.
Costco’s wholesale club model led the way in H1 2024, with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth ranging from 6.1% in January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Walmart followed closely, with YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months. Target had a slower start, with visits below 2023 levels from January to April, and a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. However, visits rebounded in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed growth bodes well for Target, especially as the back-to-school season ramps up.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success was likely bolstered by summer deals and intensifying price wars aimed at attracting inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
While inflation is cooling, prices remain high, and discount and dollar stores are increasingly challenging Walmart, Target, and Costco. Many customers, especially those of more modest means, are drawn to the rock-bottom prices at dollar stores.
Analysis of cross-shopping patterns shows that a growing share of Walmart, Target, and Costco visitors also frequent Dollar Tree regularly. In Q2 2019, between 9.8% and 13.7% of visitors to these retailers visited Dollar Tree at least three times, but by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is capitalizing on this interest. Over the past year, it added 350 Dollar Tree locations while closing nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. The chain also acquired leases for 170 99 Cents Only Stores, gaining access to customers who buy everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree expands its footprint and food offerings, it poses a growing challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Read the full reports to discover more hotel and superstore insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.

The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.

Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.

New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
