.svg)
Year-over-year (YoY) visit performance for RBI chains was mixed in Q4 2025. Burger King (0.7%) and Popeyes (-0.5%) had nearly flat foot traffic, while Firehouse Subs (3.9%) had more significant growth. Meanwhile, Tim Hortons (-4.5%) experienced a significant visit gap.
Foot traffic trends across RBI brands in Q4 2025 reveal a divide in chain performance. Burger King and Firehouse Subs were the primary drivers of domestic visit growth, while Popeyes and Tim Hortons experienced softer traffic patterns.
As the monthly visit graph below shows, Burger King’s Q4 2025 momentum came mostly in December 2025, coinciding with the brand’s limited-time SpongeBob Movie Menu and its 13 Days of Deals promotion. Meanwhile, Firehouse Subs sustained visit growth throughout Q4 2025, supported by continued expansion of its store footprint.
Popeyes visits and same-store visits tracked closely and remained largely flat in Q4 2025, pointing to continued challenges for the brand. RBI has emphasized long-term operational improvements and a renewed focus on core menu items as key levers for improving Popeyes’ performance, and while the impact of these initiatives has yet to materialize in the visit data, they could begin to support meaningful growth in 2026.
Domestic traffic to Tim Hortons – a relatively small chain in the U.S. coffee space – lagged significantly in Q4 2025. However, RBI has signaled ambitions to replicate the brand’s international success domestically, leveraging a robust promotional calendar and an accelerated expansion strategy that could help lift brand awareness and strengthen consumer loyalty over time.
What’s next for these brands in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
I grew up playing soccer and have great World Cup memories growing up near the Rose Bowl.
In 1994, the US hosted the men’s World Cup, marking the first time the country had ever hosted a World Cup – men's or women's. We tied our first game against Switzerland, and the second game was against Columbia at the Rose Bowl. I went to that game! Valderama was at his peak, and it seemed one in five fans wore a big yellow wig. The US went on to win that game – our first win ever on home soil. The party that ensued was madness. Seemingly, the whole stadium paraded to Old Town Pasadena after the game, basking in the upset. Old Town had not expected tens of thousands of soccer fans to descend upon them.
But something even greater happened in 1999. The Rose Bowl hosted another epic game, this time between the US and China in the Women’s World Cup finals. The game went into overtime, and then penalties, where we finally won. The image of Brandi Chastain after her game-winning penalty is one of my favorite images of all time.
This year’s World Cup will be played across stadiums nationwide – and although none of these venues include the Rose Bowl, new memories will still be made for fans new and old.
Eight tournament matches, including the final, will be held at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, which already hosted a World Cup-like audience during the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Analyzing the demographics and consumer preferences of fans at that event can provide a strong preview of who will fill the stands in 2026 – and how marketers can capitalize on the opportunity.
So if you are a brand that wants to tap into this experience, here are a few things you can do to help get as close to the action as possible.
Comparing the FIFA Club World Cup Final (July 13, 2025) to other high-profile sporting events held at MetLife Stadium reveals that the soccer match attracted a higher share of Millennials and Gen X attendees than high-profile NFL and NHL events at the same venue. Meanwhile, the NFL and NHL events skewed more heavily toward both older generations and Gen Z.
Takeaway: Global soccer events such as the FIFA World Cup may be especially effective for brands targeting Millennial and Gen X consumers at major U.S. venues.
Diving deeper into the differences between FIFA Club World Cup attendees compared to NHL and NFL fans at MetLife Stadium shows that FIFA Club World Cup Final Attendees tended to travel to the match from further away. The data also shows that MetLife visitors during the FIFA Club World Cup were more likely to take advantage of their trip to MetLife to visit the nearby American Dream Mall compared to NHL or NFL fans.
Takeaway: Global soccer events drive stronger destination-style behavior, creating meaningful spillover for nearby retail and entertainment destinations – and expanded opportunity for brands beyond game day itself.
Compared to NFL and NHL audiences, FIFA Club World Cup Final attendees showed distinct food and beverage preferences. In terms of food choices, soccer fans tended to have a strong preference for Asian cuisine and a slightly higher-than-average affinity for Italian food. On the beverage front, FIFA Club World Cup guests showed lower relative interest in craft beer and higher interest in at-home craft coffee compared to the NFL or NHL game-day crowds.
Takeaway: Soccer fans’ psychographic profiles point to opportunities for non-traditional, globally inspired food and beverage concepts around major soccer events.
One of my favorite learnings from being around brands my entire professional life is that fans are diehard. Fans go to extraordinary lengths to get access to experiences and content that they love. If you are a brand that is somehow lucky enough to be part of the experience, you are etched positively in memory. But if you try to force yourself into the experience and aren’t authentic, consumers will punish you for it.
The World Cup is a global event, but it’s not for everyone. By leveraging AI-powered location analytics, you can see who attends these types of events, how far they travel, where they stay, where they eat – and maybe most importantly, what they do when they are not at the game.
Our recent analysis highlighted Dutch Bros’ push to capture a greater share of morning-daypart visits alongside its aggressive expansion strategy. Now, we’ll dive deeper into the connection between these two aspects of Dutch Bros’ strategy. Using an AI-powered analysis of visitor behavior we’ll explore how Dutch Bros’ play for the morning commuter could help foster brand recognition and loyalty in new markets, driving success as the chain grows its footprint.
Dutch Bros saw consistently positive visit growth in 2025, largely driven by rapid unit expansion, while the chain’s elevated same-store visits indicate strong demand as it entered new markets. The brand’s particularly robust end-of-year momentum may also be linked to its holiday season promotions.
As Dutch Bros grows its footprint, its visitor’s journeys appear consistent with a brand yet to cement itself as part of morning coffee and breakfast routines in new geographies.
In 2025, fewer Dutch Bros visitors came from home immediately before visiting the chain or continued to work immediately after visiting, compared to 2024. This shift may reflect consumers who are encountering the chain more organically as it opens in their area – with curiosity and novelty fueling irregular visits rather than visitation being part of an established routine or commute.
Perhaps morning commuters, the kind Dutch Bros hopes to attract with its aforementioned breakfast strategy, could be the key to turning discovery into loyalty among consumers in new markets.
Viewed together, two facets of Dutch Bros’ growth plan – expansion and morning commuter visits – appear highly complementary; expanded breakfast offerings could potentially facilitate the transition from unfamiliar brand to habitual pit stop as the chain grows its footprint.
What will Dutch Bros’ visit patterns reveal about its growth in the months ahead? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.
By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.
The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.
Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.
Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure.
Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance.
Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
What should restaurant operators expect in 2026? Like much of the consumer sector, 2025 was an up-and-down year for the industry. The year started out on a strong note, but visitation trends quickly turned volatile amid uncertainty over tariff news and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. With the threat of higher prices, it’s no surprise that consumers became hyper price sensitive as the year progressed, resulting in a clear bifurcation in trends among diners.
On one hand, affluent consumers – who generally take their spending cues from the health of the stock and housing market – continued to visit more upscale and fine dining chains. Meanwhile, lower and middle income consumers pulled back from QSR and fast casual restaurant chains that they perceived as expensive. This set up a challenging development for many restaurant operators, as consumers traded out of traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels for substitutes across other food retailers. This trend continued for much of the year until McDonald’s and others introduced more value-oriented promotions with pop-culture tie-ins (which we discussed here).
Heading into 2026, where does the restaurant category stand? We’ve highlighted three key trends that restaurant operators, executives, and investors should consider.
As mentioned above, traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels generally had a challenging 2025 headlined by increased competition with other food retailers like value grocers like Trader Joe’s and Aldi, food-forward convenience stores like Wawa, Sheetz, Buc-ee’s, and Casey’s, and warehouse clubs like Costco and Sam’s Club (which have increasingly attracted younger visitors in recent years). In fact, our data suggests a substantial increase in the percentage of QSR visitors also visiting Aldi – and while some of the increase may be attributed to Aldi's expansion, the rise in cross-visitation trends also underscores this competitive encroachment.
While certain players like Taco Bell were able to hold their ground against other food retail competitors, others – like McDonald’s – needed the boost from special promotions like the launch of its Extra Value Meal in September 2025 to win back value-focused consumers.
We’ve already covered some of the key ways that QSR chains plan to wield promotional strategies in 2026, including a focus on freebies, pop-culture tie-ins, sequencing, and storytelling. We’re already seeing some evidence of this with Taco Bell’s Luxe Value Menu featuring 10 menu items priced at $3 or less. However, with several key events taking place in 2026, including the Winter Olympics and World Cup, there will be more opportunities for QSR chains to amplify their value messaging. We may not quite see the return of the Value Wars of 2024 given ongoing input cost inflation pressures, but given the success that McDonald’s and Taco Bell have seen, it’s apparent that value messaging will be critical in 2026.
As macroeconomic and inflationary uncertainty increased throughout 2025, restaurants’ primary competition shifted from other chains to alternative food retail channels, including value grocers, convenience stores, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright noted this trend on the company’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call as well. While Chipotle noted pressure among customers under $100K in household income from July-September, our data also indicated a major shift in the behavior of fast casual restaurant consumers in trade areas between $100-$125K for much of the second half of 2025.
Where did these consumers go? Like for QSR chains, we believe visits were impacted by a combination of factors – including a shift to differentiated food retailers like Trader Joe’s. Below, we see the percentage of fast casual visitors that also visited Trader Joe’s has increased significantly over the past five years. Like for Aldi, some of this can be attributed to Trader Joe’s expansion plans, but we believe that some visitors have chosen to substitute some fast casual lunch visits for value grocers.
After years of outperforming the industry, these high-growth brands face a "convenience plateau." The price gap between fast-casual and casual dining narrowed to the point where consumers began questioning the value of a $16 bowl eaten at a counter versus a $20 sit-down meal. To win back these consumers in 2026, fast-casual brands must reinvest in the physical experience. This means moving away from "ghost kitchen" vibes and back toward inviting dining rooms, while simultaneously fixing the "mobile order friction" that has made many store lobbies feel chaotic and impersonal.
Both QSR and fast casual chains looking to win back middle-income visitors who have traded down to at-home dining will need to move beyond the $5 value meal. The winners in 2025 realized that value is a calculation of price combined with innovation. McDonald’s "Grinch Meal" and various "limited-time" spicy chicken iterations proved that consumers are willing to spend if the product feels like a unique event. In 2026, restaurants must continue this trend, using "innovation-led value" to justify the discretionary spend of a household that is increasingly selective.
One of the standout stories of 2025 was the continued strength of casual dining giants like Chili’s. Building on the momentum gained in 2024 with the "Big Smasher" burger and clear value messaging (like the "3 for Me" deal), Chili’s didn't just win new customers – it kept them. Data shows that same-store visits to Chili's were up every month of 2025 despite the tough comparison to an already strong 2024.
Observing Chili's successful resurrection through its aggressive "3 for Me" platform and direct antagonism toward fast-food pricing, rivals like Applebee's and Red Robin are frantically adopting the same playbook to win back budget-conscious diners. These chains have largely abandoned complex culinary innovations in favor of simplifying operations and launching hard-hitting tiered meal deals – often priced between $10 and $12 – designed to explicitly undercut the rising cost of a "Big Mac" combo.
By pivoting their marketing to highlight that a sit-down meal with unlimited sides now costs less than a drive-thru visit, competitors are validating Chili's core thesis: the new battleground for casual dining isn't service or ambiance, but proving they are the superior economic alternative to the quick-service sector.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by precision rather than broad-stroke expansion. The 'rising tide' era of post-pandemic growth is over; simply opening doors in high-growth Sunbelt markets or offering a generic discount is no longer enough to guarantee traffic. To succeed in this increasingly saturated and price-sensitive environment, operators must execute a delicate balancing act: aggressively defending their value proposition to fight off grocery competitors, while simultaneously reinvesting in the in-store experience to justify the visit. Whether it is through the tactical 'sequencing' of limited-time offers, the aggressive tiered pricing of casual dining, or the revitalization of physical dining rooms, the winners of 2026 will be the brands that give consumers a distinct, irrefutable reason to choose dining out over staying in.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The U.S. grocery sector is increasingly polarized. Traffic and growth are concentrating at the far ends of the quality-savings spectrum, where retailers with clear, disciplined value propositions are pulling ahead. Meanwhile, grocers that sit in the middle – or only weakly signal what they stand for – are struggling to keep pace.
This analysis builds on the insights from dunnhumby's U.S. Retailer Preference Index (RPI) for Grocery.
As the chart below illustrates, visit growth is diverging significantly across grocery formats, with success concentrated at both ends of the quality-price spectrum.
Savings-first retailers such as Aldi have been thriving consistently since 2023, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth generally outpacing that of the wider grocery category. Quality-first non-conventional chains like Sprouts Farmers Market have also done well, particularly in 2025 – though their performance lagged behind savings-first chains for much of 2023 and 2024.
But arguably the most consistently impressive performers – with slightly lower YoY growth most months but less volatility over time – have been the so-called “Unicorns”, including chains such as Trader Joe’s and H-E-B that defy grocery’s traditional quality-price tradeoff through extreme focus. By limiting assortments or going all-in on specific geographic areas, these retailers funnel profits back into innovation within their core missions, inspiring deep customer loyalty and creating a virtuous cycle that steadily improves the quality-savings equation.
Middle-of-the-road chains, by contrast, have consistently trailed the pack, struggling to gain traction in a market that increasingly rewards clear, decisive positioning.
But not every chain can be a Unicorn – hence the moniker. And between savings-first and quality-first chains, several indicators (beyond their more consistent YoY growth) suggest that savings-first grocers may be better positioned for long-term growth.
One such signal comes from cross-shopping behavior. In 2025, the share of visitors to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market who visited another grocery store either immediately before or after their trip declined YoY – indicating that more shoppers are treating the savings-first retailer as a primary grocery destination rather than a secondary or fill-in stop. A similar pattern emerged at Unicorn Trader Joe’s.
Quality-first chain Natural Grocers, by contrast, saw a higher and growing share of visitors arriving from another grocery store or heading to one directly afterward, suggesting it is more often part of a multi-stop shopping pattern rather than the first or only trip. As value-oriented chains become more complete grocery solutions, they are capturing a growing share of intentional, first-stop visits, reinforcing their role as everyday essentials rather than complementary alternatives.
Another indication of savings-first retailers’ special growth potential is the rising affluence of their customer base.
While savings-first grocery stores have not yet reached Unicorn status, their assortments have moved well beyond bare-bones essentials, and they are no longer fully trading quality for value. Expanded private-label offerings, improved fresh selections, and tighter SKU curation increasingly emphasize quality alongside cost. And as perceived quality gaps have narrowed, median household income in these retailers’ trade areas has increased – rising from $72.5K in 2022 to $73.1K in 2025. This shift suggests savings-first grocery chains are gaining access to higher-income shoppers who once defaulted to premium formats, expanding both their addressable market and runway for growth.
By contrast, quality-first grocery chains, which serve the most affluent consumers, have seen median household income in their trade areas fluctuate in recent years – rising between 2022 and 2023 before declining thereafter. While this softening could indicate some broadening of their customer base, these formats are built around narrowly defined, premium missions, which may limit the extent to which such broadening can translate into scalable growth. As a result, their path to expansion may be more constrained than savings-first retailers’ upward reach.
As price sensitivity rises and perceived quality differences narrow, the retailers winning today are those with the clearest answers to a simple question: Why shop here instead of anywhere else? And in today’s market, being essential beats being special – unless you can convincingly be both.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
