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CAVA’s expansion in recent years has been largely focused on suburban markets. And analyzing the shift in its visitor base highlights that it is growing in ways that signal continued room for growth.
The median household income in CAVA’s trade area has dropped steadily over the years, from $122.7K in 2019 to $95.0K in 2025, reflecting its growing reach among middle-income, suburban households. At the same time, visits from the ultra-wealthy “Power Elite”, defined by Experian: Mosaic as “the wealthiest households in the U.S.”, have given way to growth among “Singles & Starters” – though a slight drop-off in 2025 may reflect pull-back from these households amidst economic uncertainty. Still, the data suggests that CAVA’s appeal is resonating with a much larger, more diverse group of consumers, positioning the chain for continued growth in the years ahead.
Looking deeper into the geographic segments that make up CAVA’s visitor base reveals another often-overlooked source of opportunity. As the company has expanded beyond its urban core, its share of visits from the “Urban Periphery” segment (defined by the Esri Analytics Bundle as residential communities just beyond major city centers) has climbed steadily. These neighborhoods present a significant opportunity for continued expansion in markets that bridge city and suburb – offering the chain further room for growth.
In expanding into suburban markets, CAVA has also evolved its operating model to emphasize speed and convenience. Visits have become noticeably faster as the brand expands its drive-thru lanes and digital ordering options, with average dwell time dropping from 42.3 minutes in Q3 2019 to 28 minutes in Q3 2025. This shift suggests that the chain’s approach is resonating with time-pressed consumers. At the same time, a still relatively leisurely dwell time (28 minutes in Q3 2025) indicates that many guests still choose to dine in-house – underscoring CAVA’s ability to serve both convenience-driven and sit-down customers.
Location analytics for CAVA reflects a brand that is maturing while still defining its core audience. The chain has democratized over the years, as seen by its widening customer base, while continuing to make operational changes that benefit its brand.
Will CAVA continue to thrive into Q4 2025 and beyond?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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When First Watch (FWRG), Portillo’s (PTLO), and sweetgreen (SG) went public in 2021, each represented a different slice of the fast-casual boom – from breakfast to indulgent classics to health-forward dining.
Now, four years on, as tighter consumer budgets and a more competitive dining environment test the wider dining scene, we explore how these three restaurants are performing in 2025.
First Watch’s concept is simple: breakfast, served between 7 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. And recent visitation trends suggest that this straightforward formula continues to resonate – foot traffic grew steadily on a YoY basis, with visits over the past 12 months up 11.9% year over year (YoY).
The company set a goal of adding 60 new restaurants in 2025 and has already opened about half that number while eyeing an eventual 2,200-unit footprint nationwide. Comp sales reflect this steady, disciplined growth, increasing 3.5% in Q2 2025, driven primarily by higher guest counts rather than menu pricing.
With continued visit gains and a measured expansion plan, First Watch appears well positioned to sustain its momentum. Its customer base tends to be more affluent and possibly less price-sensitive than many fast-casual chains – an advantage that may help insulate the brand from inflationary pressures. Combined with its focused concept and disciplined execution, First Watch remains poised for steady growth even in a more cautious consumer climate.
Fast-casual chain Portillo’s, known for its Midwestern take on comfort food, saw a strong run of visit growth through 2024, primarily driven by continued expansion. Now, the chain appears to be entering a period of normalization.
Chain-wide foot traffic, which had grown at a double-digit pace the prior year, began to slow in early 2025, with visits over the past 12 months just 1.6% higher YoY – partly due to the lapping of a strong 2024.
The company has acknowledged these headwinds, lowering expectations amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. To address them, Portillo’s plans to renew its focus on value, streamline operations, and pace new unit growth – strengthening its foundation for measured expansion and increased foot traffic in 2026.
Salad chain sweetgreen was one of the standout success stories of the post-pandemic era and continued that momentum into recent years. The company’s expansion strategy and focus on digital engagement helped drive consistent visit growth, cementing its position as a leader in the premium fast-casual segment.
Visits over the past 12 months were up 10.9% year-over-year – an impressive increase, but still lower than the 22.5% YoY growth of the previous 12-months period.
Part of this moderation reflects tougher comparisons following a particularly strong 2024. And though “bowl fatigue” likely also plays a role, sweetgreen remains optimistic. The brand continues to invest in its suburban formats while building out its “Infinite Kitchen” technology and continuing to open new locations. If successful, these initiatives could help Sweetgreen translate its brand strength and digital reach into a more stable, scalable traffic base as it moves into 2026.
The three chains have found their stride, though each is on a different path. First Watch is thriving, capitalizing on a focused concept and loyal, higher-income guests. Portillo’s is in a reset phase, refocusing on value and efficiency, while sweetgreen remains in growth mode, leveraging technology and suburban expansion to reignite same-store growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Cautious consumer spending and aggressive discounting across the dining industry have made it increasingly difficult for fast-food brands to sustain steady foot traffic in 2025. And against this challenging backdrop, Wendy’s saw same-store visits decline 6.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3 – with the steepest drop-off occurring in September. Looking ahead, the brand faces an even tougher YoY comparison in October 2025, when it will lap the highly successful Krabby Patty Kollab that fueled an exceptional traffic surge in October 2024.
On the company’s latest earnings call, executives acknowledged that an overload of overlapping deals had left customers confused. Interim CEO Ken Cook said seeing “eight different deals at point of purchase” made it unclear what guests were coming for. The company has since adopted a “less-is-more” approach, simplifying its promotional calendar to focus on a few high-impact offerings.
And despite the continued slowdown, this simplified approach is showing early promise. On July 14th, 2025, Wendy’s introduced a can’t-miss $1 breakfast biscuit deal that let guests purchase up to five biscuits per morning with no sign-up or purchase requirements. The limited-time offer ran through late August – and even as traffic softened during other dayparts, breakfast visits between 6:00 and 10:00 AM rose 0.9% YoY in Q3, with a sharp 11.6% surge in August. Though the promotion has since ended, its success provides a blueprint for the company as it heads into the last quarter of the year.
By simplifying its value message, Wendy’s aims to ease decision fatigue and re-energize consumers around clear, compelling offers. And the success of the chain’s summer breakfast promotion suggests that this focused strategy could help restore traffic momentum in the months ahead.
For more data-driven QSR insights, explore Placer.ai's free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Consumers continue to navigate high food costs and cautious spending, and some of the largest quick-service dining operators in the country are feeling the effects. We analyzed the visit data for leading QSR players Yum! Brands (YUM) and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) to assess their performance in the third quarter of 2025.
Yum! Brands emerged as a success story in Q1 and Q2 2025, with both visits and average visits per location showing moderate growth. That momentum has continued into Q3, with overall visits elevated by a modest 0.3% and average visits per location rising 1.3% – a strong showing in a period where the overall QSR sector has been showing signs of strain.
Taco Bell has long served as Yum! Brands’ primary U.S. growth engine, delivering 9.0% and 4.0% YoY same-store sales growth in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively. And in Q3 2025, the brand continued to thrive – though visits increased at a slightly slower pace than in Q2. Through initiatives like its $3 Y2K menu and the rollout of Live Más Cafés and specialty beverages tailored to Gen Z tastes, Taco Bell continues to balance value, nostalgia, and innovation – driving steady traffic and strengthening its connection with consumers.
The big surprises of Q3 were KFC and Pizza Hut, both of which showed meaningful improvements in foot traffic after several quarters of underperformance. At Pizza Hut, the $2-Buck Tuesday promotion that ran through most of July and August drew strong weekday crowds, helping to lift same-store visits 0.6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, at KFC, there are early signs that the brand’s “Kentucky Fried Comeback” initiative is beginning to pay off. Same-store visits increased 1.1% YoY in Q3, a substantial improvement from Q2, when same-store sales fell 5.0% and same-store traffic declined 4.6% YoY. The return of fan-favorite menu items like Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings also appears to have helped reignite consumer enthusiasm.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI), owner of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs, saw visits slow in Q3 2025. Overall traffic declined 3.3% YoY, slightly more than the wider QSR category, though average visits per location outperformed QSR with a smaller 2.3% drop.
RBI’s trajectory is largely driven by Burger King, which in Q3 2025 saw traffic decline by 3.6% YoY. Still, same-store visits to BK fell only 1.8% YoY, showing the brand’s success in sustaining traffic levels in a challenging QSR landscape. Popeyes experienced a modest same-store traffic decline, while Time Hortons saw a steeper drop.
RBI’s fast-casual Firehouse Subs, however, posted YoY visit growth, with overall visits up 1.6% and same-store visits holding steady at 0.6% – impressive performance even as the chain continues to expand its unit count. Part of this strength may stem from the chain’s relatively affluent customer base – according to data from STI:PopStats, Firehouse Subs’ captured market had a median household income (HHI) of $76.3K in Q3, compared to $67.0K for Burger King, $67.8K for Popeye’s, and $68.1K for Tim Hortons.
With consumer caution reshaping dining habits, even top QSR brands are feeling the pinch. Can Yum! sustain its momentum into Q4 or will broader dining headwinds slow its pace? And will RBI’s same-store visit trajectory continue to outpace the wider segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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For much of the past few years, Shake Shack and Wingstop seemed unstoppable, riding the fast-casual boom with strong traffic, loyal followings, and steady expansion. But as consumer spending patterns evolve, the latest visitation data suggests both brands are entering a new phase. We took a closer look at their Q3 visitation trends to see what foot traffic trends reveal about their performance.
Diving into Shake Shack’s foot traffic reveals the story of a brand growing through expansion. Overall visits to the chain grew by 15.1% in Q3 2025, an impressive increase in a period of cooling consumer sentiment. However, same-store visits slowed slightly, suggesting that this growth is a result of a rapidly expanding fleet rather than increased visitation at existing stores.
These traffic metrics align with recent company reports – in Q2 2025, overall revenue rose 12.6% in the wake of new store openings, while same-store sales inched up just 1.8% YoY, buoyed by higher menu prices. Shake Shack’s ability to rapidly expand its fleet while maintaining essentially stable same-store foot traffic – even while raising prices – suggests that the chain’s higher-income customer base continues to see Shake Shack as an affordable indulgence even in a cautious spending climate.
Wingstop is also in expansion mode, adding stores at a brisk pace this year. But since mid-summer, overall foot traffic growth has stagnated, with Q3 showing a 2.8% YoY decline and same-store visits falling even more sharply.
Part of this drop reflects an exceptionally tough comparison to Q3 2024, when visits surged 24.2% YoY overall and 14.0% on a same-store basis. (By contrast, Shake Shack saw overall visits increase 19.1%, while same-store visits held roughly flat at -0.8% during the same period).
Wingstop’s YoY visit slowdown should also be viewed in the context of its expanding digital business – online orders rose to 72.2% of total sales in Q2 2025. The chain’s growing digital business helped deliver a stronger-than-expected Q2, which saw domestic same-store sales down just 1.9%, despite lapping 28.7% growth in Q2 2024.
The company continues to expand aggressively, adding more than 120 net new restaurants in Q2 alone. Still, Wingstop’s leadership has acknowledged that near-term volatility may be expected, given exceptionally strong comparisons to 2024 and ongoing economic uncertainty affecting its more value-conscious customers.
Against this challenging backdrop, both brands have found extra strength in specials and limited-time offers (LTOs), which continue to drive measurable visit lifts to their restaurants.
Wingstop’s positioning closer to the value end of fast-casual makes it more vulnerable to inflation fatigue – and makes short-term specials all the more appealing to its customers. Indeed, visits jumped to their highest levels all year during the week of National Chicken Wing Day (July 29, 2025), when the chain lured budget-conscious diners with a free wing promotion.
Meanwhile, Shake Shack saw visit upticks during the weeks of May 26 and June 23 – the first likely driven in part by its free ShackBurger offer on orders over $10, and the second by the return of its viral Dubai Chocolate Shake.
Together, these bursts of activity reinforce a key point: Both chains are navigating a market where consumers are more selective, but still willing to show up for the right product, price, or promotion.
Both Shake Shack and Wingstop have entered a more measured phase of growth in 2025. Expansion remains central to each brand’s strategy, but digital engagement and timely promotions are playing an increasingly important role. As consumers become more selective, balancing scale with loyalty and value will likely define the next stage of growth for each chain.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The quick-service restaurant category has seen mixed results this past quarter, as softer consumer spending continues to pressure much of the sector. Yet the coffee subcategory continues to thrive, with much of its success coming from smaller brands.
We took a closer look at the visitation trends for the category, across major brands and smaller ones, to pinpoint where this growth is happening.
Even with consumers tightening their belts, coffee chains are holding their own. Visits to the coffee segment were up 1.4% YoY in 2025, compared to a 2.7% drop across the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment.
But digging deeper into average visits per location tells a more nuanced story: Visits to individual coffee venues declined 2.9% in Q3, only slightly outperforming the 3.3% drop across the wider QSR segment. In other words, coffee’s visit growth is being powered primarily by chain expansion rather than heavier traffic to existing units. Still, the category’s ability to sustain growth amid consumer pullbacks highlights coffee’s unique staying power – an everyday indulgence that consumers seem unwilling to give up, even as other affordable dining luxuries lose steam.
Starbucks and Dunkin’ are the two largest coffee chains in the United States by wide margins – Dunkin’ recently celebrated the opening of its 10,000th store, while Starbucks boasts roughly 17,230 locations nationwide. And despite ongoing challenges in the broader QSR segment, both coffee behemoths maintained relatively stable overall visit trends in Q3 2025. Starbucks saw a modest -1.7% decline in total visits compared to 2024, while Dunkin’ visits dipped by just -0.7%.
Dunkin’, however, outperformed Starbucks on a same-store basis, holding nearly flat with just a 1.7% decline – likely reflecting its stronger value positioning. Starbucks, by contrast, saw same-store visits fall 5.2% YoY, though the return of its Pumpkin Spice Latte once again provided a substantial lift. Both brands also experienced a slowdown in September, suggesting that consumers may be pulling back on small indulgences as they shift discretionary spending toward holiday gifts and larger upcoming expenses.
Even as Starbucks and Dunkin’ anchor the national market, smaller brands are driving much of the coffee category’s momentum – including the ever-popular Oregon-based Dutch Bros. The drive-thru brand has been on a major growth streak over the past several years, adding new locations at a brisk pace with a goal of reaching 2,029 units by 2029.
In Q3 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros rose 8.8% year-over-year, while same-store visits hovered just below 2024 levels – a modest slowdown from Q2, when total visits increased 13.8% and same-store visits rose 1.9%, consistent with strong quarterly comps. Still, maintaining nearly steady traffic amid such rapid expansion points to healthy, sustained demand and strong brand loyalty, even as the chain continues its robust growth push.
The meteoric rise of several even smaller coffee chains is also fueling the category’s growth. In Q3 2025, many of these emerging players saw double-digit visit gains, signaling that expansion opportunities in the coffee space extend well beyond the established giants.
7 Brew Coffee, one of the country’s fastest-growing coffee chains, led the visit growth pack, with foot traffic up 80.4% compared to Q3 2024 and same-store visits climbing an impressive 19.4%. Better Buzz Coffee Roasters followed with visits up 72.3% and a 2.4% rise in same-store visits – suggesting that its footprint expansion is being well-received. Florida chain Foxtail Coffee was the third growth leader in Q3 2025, with visits increasing 46.8% year-over-year, reflecting its growing footprint in states like Michigan and Georgia. Meanwhile, Black Rock Coffee Bar, which made headlines with a successful IPO last month, saw visits climb 6.5%, even as same-store visits edged just under 2024 levels.
The growing strength of these regional brands – many of which, like Dutch Bros, emphasize speed and convenience through drive-thru formats – could reshape the competitive coffee landscape heading into 2026.
While the wider dining sector is contracting, the coffee space is holding firm, with small chains helping to drive much of the segment’s growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Retail media networks (RMNs) have cemented their roles as the future – and present – of advertising. These networks enable advertisers to promote products and services through a retailer’s online properties and physical stores, when consumers are close to the point-of-purchase and primed to buy.
Today, we take a closer look at two newcomers to the retail media space: Costco Wholesale and Wawa. Both chains have an online presence – but both also excel at in-store experiences, offering unique opportunities for consumer engagement and exposure to new products.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key advantages Costco and Wawa bring to the retail media table – and examine how the retailers’ physical reach can best be leveraged to help advertising partners find new audiences.
Wawa and Costco, the latest additions to the growing number of companies with retail media networks, exhibit significant advertising potential. Both brands boast a wide reach and diverse customer base, and both have access to troves of customer data through membership and loyalty programs.
Foot traffic data confirms the robust offline positioning of the two retailers. In Q1 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to Costco and Wawa increased 9.5% and 7.5% respectively – showing that their in-store engagement is on a growth trajectory.
And since consumers tend to spend a lot more time in-store than they do on retailers’ websites, Costco’s and Wawa’s strong brick-and-mortar growth positions them especially well to help advertisers reach new customers. In Q1 2024, the average visits to Costco’s and Wawa’s physical stores lasted 37.4 and 11.4 minutes respectively – compared to just 6.7 and 4.6 minutes for the chains’ websites. These longer in-store dwell times can be harnessed to maximize ad exposure and offer partners more extended opportunities for meaningful interactions with customers. Partners can also analyze the behavior and preferences of the two chains’ growing visitor bases to craft targeted online campaigns.
Costco’s retail media network will tap into the on- and offline shopping habits of its staggering 74.5 million members to inform targeted advertising by partners. And the retailer’s tremendous reach offers a significant opportunity to engage customers in-store.
But while Costco is dominant in some areas of the country, other markets are led by competitors like Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. And advertisers looking to choose between competing RMNs or hone in on the areas where Costco is strongest can analyze Costco's performance and visit share – on a local or national level – to determine where to focus their efforts.
An analysis of the share of visits to wholesalers across the country reveals that Costco is the dominant wholesale membership club in much of the Western United States. But Costco also captures the largest share of wholesale club visits in many other major population centers, including important markets like New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and San Antonio. Costco’s widespread brick-and-mortar dominance offers prospective advertising partners a significant opportunity to connect with regional audiences in a wide array of key markets.
Another one of Costco’s key advantages as a retail media provider lies in its highly loyal and engaged audience. In May 2024, a whopping 41.4% of Costco’s visitors frequented the club at least twice during the month – compared to 36.6% for Sam’s Club and 36.0% for BJ’s Wholesale.
Moreover, Costco led in average visit duration compared to its competitors. In May 2024, customers spent an average of 37.1 minutes at Costco – surpassing even the impressive dwell times at Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
YoY visits per location to Costco, too, were the highest of the analyzed wholesalers, all three of which saw YoY increases. These metrics further establish the wholesaler’s position as an effective retail media provider.
Even when foot traffic doesn't show a brand’s clear regional dominance, location analytics can reveal other metrics that signal its unique potential. Take the Richmond-Petersburg, VA, designated market area (DMA), for example. In May 2024, BJ’s Wholesale Club led the DMA with 41.2% of wholesale club visits, while Costco was a close second with 37.3% of visits.
But despite BJ’s lead in visit share, Costco's Richmond audience was more affluent. Costco's visitors came from trade areas with a median household income (HHI) of $93.2K/year, compared to $73.1K/year for Sam’s Club and $89.5K/year for BJ’s. Additionally, Costco drew a higher share of weekday visits than its counterparts.
Analyzing shopper habits and preferences across chains on a local level can provide crucial context for strategists working on media campaigns. Advertisers can partner with the brands most likely to attract consumers interested in their offerings, and identify where – and when – to focus their advertising efforts.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, are emerging as destinations in and of themselves – and their rising popularity among a wider-than-ever swath of consumers opens up significant opportunities in the retail advertising space.
Wawa is a relative newcomer to the world of retail media, after other c-stores like 7-Eleven and Casey’s launched their networks in 2022 and 2023. But despite coming a bit late to the party, the potential for Wawa’s Goose Media Network is significant – thanks to a cadre of highly loyal visitors who enjoy the physical shopping experience the c-store chain offers.
In May 2024, Wawa’s share of loyal visitors (defined as those who visited the chain at least twice in a month) was 60.1%. In contrast, other leading c-store chains operating in Wawa’s market area – QuickTrip and 7-Eleven, for example – saw loyalty rates of 56.0% and 47.9%, respectively, for the same period.
Additionally, Wawa visitors browsed the aisles longer than those at other convenience retailers. In May 2024, 39.9% of Wawa visitors stayed in-store for 10 minutes or longer, compared to 29.6% at QuickTrip and 25.7% at 7-Eleven.
Wawa's loyal customer base and longer visit durations make it a strong contender in the retail media space. By harnessing this high level of customer engagement, Wawa can draw in advertisers and develop targeted marketing strategies that resonate with its dedicated shoppers.
Wawa has been on an expansion roll over the past few years, with plans to open at least 280 stores over the next decade in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The chain has also been steadily increasing its footprint in Florida – between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa grew from 167 Sunshine State locations to 280, with more to come.
And analyzing changes in Wawa’s visit share in one of Florida’s biggest markets – the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA – shows how successful the chain’s local expansion has been. Between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa more than doubled its category-wide visit share in the Miami area (i.e. the portion of total c-store visits in the DMA going to Wawa) – from 19.0% to nearly 40.0%.
A look at changes in Wawa’s Miami-Ft. Lauderdale trade area shows that the chain’s growing visit share has been driven by an expanding market and an increasingly diverse audience.
In April 2019, there were some 55 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA from which Wawa drew at least 3,000 visits per month. By April 2021, this figure grew to 96 – and by April 2024, it reached 129.
Over the same period, the share of “Family Union” households in Wawa’s local captured market – defined by the Experian: Mosaic dataset as families comprised of middle-income, blue collar workers – nearly doubled, growing from 7.4% in April 2019 to 14.4% in April 2024.
Retail media networks that make it easier to introduce shoppers to products and brands that are closely aligned with their preferences and habits offer a win-win-win for retailers, advertisers, and consumers alike. And Costco and Wawa are extremely well-positioned to make the most of this opportunity.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
