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In June 2024, Placer.ai released three white papers: Unlocking Potential in Underserved Grocery Markets, Brewing Success: Winning Strategies for Coffee Chains, and Advantages of New Players in the Retail Media Space.
Below is a taste of our findings from Brewing Success: Winning Strategies for Coffee Chains – which dove into the data to see how leading coffee chains including Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are driving coffee visits in 2024.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth. The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
Read the full report here to discover more coffee insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
Barnes & Noble has undergone a transformation in recent years – with new leadership and a strategic shift towards smaller, more localized book stores.
But how have these changes impacted the chain’s performance? We dove into the data to find out.
Since November 2023, Barnes & Noble has experienced consistent YoY visit growth. Only in January did foot traffic dip into the red – likely a result of the unusual cold snap that weighed on retailers nationwide.
Like many booksellers, Barnes & Noble does a significant share of its yearly business during the holiday shopping season, when people flock to bookstores to buy gifts for loved ones. So the chain’s impressive YoY performance in November and December 2023 offers an especially promising sign of its positioning going forward.
Barnes & Noble boasts more than 600 stores across the country, and after several years during which it shuttered locations, the chain has begun to expand once again. The company recently acquired Tattered Cover – a Denver-based independent bookseller, which Barnes & Noble will continue to operate under its existing name. And the Chicago area is getting five new Barnes & Noble locations this year.
Examining the visitation patterns and characteristics of Barnes & Noble’s existing visitor base in these CBSAs highlights the bookseller’s growth potential in these regions. In both CBSAs, the chain experienced positive YoY foot traffic growth in early 2024. Barnes & Noble locations in both CBSAs also drew customers from areas with higher median household incomes (HHIs) and greater shares of families with children than the chain’s nationwide baseline – two groups that may be particularly likely to frequent bookstores.
One key factor that has powered Barnes & Noble’s growth trajectory is its emphasis on curating local, independent bookstore feel in its stores. This approach allows individual store managers autonomy in decision-making, and emphasizes stocking local authors and hosting community events.
And diving into the psychographic characteristics of Barnes & Noble’s visitor base in these two expansion markets reveals that, while visitors share some similarities across different geographical regions, they also have unique characteristics.
For example, the Experian: Mosaic dataset identified higher shares of “Singles and Starters” and “Promising Families” in the trade areas that feed visitors to Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Barnes & Noble locations. Meanwhile, stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin tended to attract visitors coming from trade areas with higher shares of “Power Elite” residents.
Local stores can harness these insights to effectively curate a retail experience that resonates with their customer bases: Denver-area Barnes & Noble locations can actively court young families with children or singles who are starting out in their careers. On the flip side, Chicago-area stores can curate offerings to resonate with their more affluent customer base.
Barnes & Noble is demonstrating how to maintain relevance in a world dominated by Amazon. By creating an experience that satisfies book lovers' craving for an independent bookstore atmosphere, the company is thriving.
Will Barnes & Noble sustain strong visitor numbers while maintaining its local charm?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
Small-format stores which offer consumers more convenient and localized shopping experiences are on the rise. The trend has been gaining traction since COVID – spearheaded by major retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom, and followed by players such as IKEA, Target, Best Buy, and others.
But what impact do small-format stores have on shopper behavior? We dove into the data to explore consumer interaction with three retailers that are leaning into the small-format space: Sprouts Farmers Market, Bloomingdale’s, and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
Sprouts Farmers Market provides a great example of how a small-format expansion strategy can drive visit growth. Since January 2022, the chain has doubled down on a small-format strategy aimed at significantly reducing the chain’s square footage and environmental impact. And partially thanks to this expansion effort, Sprout saw visits to its smaller format stores increase by nearly 50.0% over the same period – helping the brand outpace the overall grocery sector in early 2024.
By focusing on customer acquisition through smaller accessible stores, Sprouts is successfully meeting the demand for convenience and sustainability. And as a pioneer in the small-format grocery space, Sprouts is setting a high bar for other grocery chains like Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s, who are rolling out their own smaller convenience-style locations. Could this mark the start of an overall shift in the grocery sector? Only time will tell.
In February 2024, Macy’s announced a turnaround plan calling for the closing of about 30% of its traditional department stores, the opening of smaller versions of the company’s eponymous chain, and the addition of more Bloomingdale’s locations. Macy’s also plans the addition of at least one more small-format Bloomie’s store this year – the highly curated, small-format neighborhood concept launched by Macy’s in 2021. With three locations nationwide – and a fourth set to open this fall in New Jersey – Bloomie’s features a mix of established brands and trendy pop-ups tailored to local tastes.
And zooming in on visitation data for the Bloomie’s in Skokie, Illinois shows how the format helps Bloomingdale’s attract new audience segments. Compared to Bloomingdale’s full-size locations, visitors to the Skokie Bloomie’s in May 2024 came from areas with higher shares of urbanites – including STI: Landscape’s “Urban Cliff Dwellers”, “Seasoned Urban Dwellers”, and “Urban Cliff Climbers” segments. This indicates that Bloomie’s appeals to city dwellers – aligning with Bloomingdale’s goal of providing a contemporary, accessible, and convenient shopping experience in urban settings.
In April 2022, BJ’s Wholesale Club unveiled BJ’s Market - a smaller-format store in Warwick, Rhode Island that’s roughly half the size of a full-sized club location. Examining the location’s visit performance over the last two years highlights the significant impact small-format stores can have on customer engagement and loyalty.
During the first five months of 2024, BJ’s small-format Warwick location experienced consistent YoY visit growth – outperforming the chain’s already-impressive state- and nationwide averages over nearly the entire analyzed period.
But visitors also interacted with the small-format venue differently in other important ways as well. Unsurprisingly, the average visit stay at the small format BJ’s in May 2024 was significantly shorter than the average stay at BJ’s in Rhode Island and at the chain nationwide (21 minutes, versus 27.6 and 30.7 minutes, respectively). And people tended to drop by the Warwick BJ’s more frequently – with 55.0% of visitors visiting the location at least twice during the month, compared to just 37.5% in Rhode Island and 38.7% nationwide.
BJ’s testing of the Warwick small-format location proves that wholesale can be extended beyond endless roaming through enormous big box stores in search for the best value bargain. There is a clear demand for a quicker, more frequent and more efficient shopping experience in the wholesale space, and BJ’s is seizing the opportunity.
Retailers across categories are increasingly incorporating small format stores into their evolving store footprints – with promising results. How will this trend continue to play out? And will consumer preferences continue to shift towards quick, efficient, experiential, and curated shopping experiences?
Follow Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail trends.
June 16th, 2024 was Father’s Day – and sons and daughters nationwide took the opportunity to show their dad some appreciation. But how did Father’s Day retail and dining foot traffic compare to that of Mother’s Day?
We dove into the data to find out.
Last month, we observed that though Mother’s Day wasn’t actually created by the greeting card industry, the holiday is one of Hallmark’s busiest days of the year.
And foot traffic analytics show that Father’s Day isn’t far behind. On June 15th, 2024 (the Saturday before Father’s Day), Hallmark stores drew 54.9% more visits than on an average year-to-date (YTD) Saturday – making it the company’s third-busiest day of the year so far. Only May 10th and May 11th, the days before Mother’s Day, drew bigger crowds to the greeting card chain.
And a look at visits to major industries that are top picks for dads shows that a variety of segments enjoyed visit boosts in the run-up to Father’s Day – though for most categories, the magnitude of the bump was considerably smaller than that seen before Mother’s Day.
But for one category in particular – recreational and sporting goods – it was the day before Father’s Day that was the bigger deal. On June 15th, 2024, visits to these retailers jumped 30.9% compared to an average YTD Sunday – making them the biggest beneficiaries of dad’s special occasion. Hobbies, crafts, & gift stores, on the other hand – which saw a substantial visit boost in the lead-up to Mother’s Day – experienced a drop in foot traffic.
Like on Mother’s Day, grateful offspring ponied up on Father’s Day to treat their dads to a nice, sit-down meal. On June 16th, 2024, visits to full-service dining venues jumped 30.3% compared to a YTD Sunday average. Meanwhile, visits to quick-service restaurants increased just slightly, and those to fast-casual establishments declined.
Still, throughout most of the country, full-service restaurants (FSRs) were much busier this year on Mother’s Day than on Father’s Day. The discrepancy was most pronounced in Northeastern states like Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, and New Jersey – where Mother’s Day FSR visits were more than 20.0% higher than Father’s Day ones. But two states in the Pacific Northwest, Washington and Oregon, drew more FSR foot traffic on Father’s Day than on Mother’s Day – perhaps due in part to the region’s special connection to the occasion honoring dads. (The tradition of celebrating Father’s Day originated in Spokane, WA in the early 1900’s, decades before it was declared a federal holiday in 1972).
The dining difference between Father’s Day and Mother’s Day is about more than just quantity: Where moms have a clear soft spot for Olive Garden, dads are all about the steak. Texas Roadhouse was the single busiest FSR chain on Father’s Day this year, with visits outpacing an average YTD Sunday by 49.4%.
Father’s Day doesn’t have quite the same retail and dining impact as Mother’s Day – but it’s an important milestone nonetheless.
What other special calendar days are poised to draw outsize customer foot traffic in 2024?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and dining analyses to find out.
We’ve previously written about the influence of East Asian, Southeast Asian, and Hispanic cultures and their influence on groceries, malls, and food halls with the likes of H Mart, 99 Ranch, Asia Garden Mall, and Mercado Gonazlez. Now, let’s turn our attention to the huge Indian subcontinent, which includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.
One of this summer’s breakout sports stories is that of Sarubh Netravalkar, Oracle software engineer by day, Cricket star on the side! He helped Team USA beat Pakistan during the Men’s T20 Cricket World Cup in a huge upset, and has now been nicknamed the “Desi Diaspora Darling.” The United States is co-hosting and participating in this Cricket tournament for the first time, and fans came out in droves to Eisenhower Stadium in Nassau, NY, which essentially became a pop-up stadium in order for the competition to take place. Tikka fries, an ultimate combo of South Asian flavor and American snack favorite, were on offer at the concession stands.
The embrace of South Asian flavors can also be seen in the growth and success at grocery. Patel Brothers and India Bazaar are two Indian grocery chains that have been growing rapidly. The former saw increased year-over-year growth in 8 of the 12 months preceding. Meanwhile, the latter saw year-over-year growth in 11 out of the last 12 months.
The grocery stores can be found in various states in the US, with a particular concentration for Patel Bros in the Chicago, New York, Boston, and DC areas and for India Bazaar in the Dallas area.
South Asian food has many highly flavorful vegetarian and vegan options, which makes it attractive to those seeking a taste boost to dishes. Chai is a staple at many tea and coffee specialty stores, and some are saying that naan sandwiches could be the next burrito. Having the right recipe can really open doors. Bombay Frankie, now located within Westfield Culver City, has its origins at a gas station, but the demand became so high that they opened up a brick-and-mortar restaurant. Their affectionately called “Indian Burrito” comes both rolled up or deconstructed. With deconstructed, one can decide the perfect bite ratio of fluffy naan, seasoned chicken, cool raita, crunchy cucumbers, and tomatoes bursting with flavor.
A quick Google search shows a burst of restaurants that incorporate naan into their name, such as Naan-tastic, Naansense, and Naan & Kabob. Naan n Curry is an example of a naan chain that has seen positive year-over-year growth.
Sourcing food at home has become a lot more attractive for consumers against the backdrop of economic concerns in 2024. In Kroger’s earnings call, CEO Rodney McMullen called out that out of home food costs are outpacing in home food costs, leading shoppers to focus more on in-home meal solutions. Cooking can be seen as a cost saving lever for visitors, but the pandemic period also fostered a love of cooking and spending time in the kitchen, even for higher income households not necessarily looking to save money. And it appears through Placer’s location insights that retailers that focus on outfitting the kitchen have been benefiting from this change in consumer behavior.
Despite the home industry having its challenges in foot traffic after the pandemic, housewares retailers have had some positive momentum over the past few months. Beyond that, houseware retailers that specialize in kitchen wares, such as Crate & Barrel and Sur La Table, have seen traffic growth throughout 2024. Williams-Sonoma, despite challenging year-over-year declines in traffic, reported comparable sales growth in the first quarter of 2024, which signals a higher level of conversion in-store.
Sur La Table, a retailer that’s been challenged in the past, has found new life in changing consumer needs. One of Sur La Table’s core competencies is in-store cooking classes, and experiential retail continues to be one way the industry can provide inherent value to visitors. Dwell times are almost 10 minutes longer than Williams-Sonoma, its closest competitor (below). It also has the highest median household income of visitors and has the highest share of visits from households over $150k. Certainly at-home cooking has increased across income brackets, but high-end consumers also appear to be interested in adjacent home categories to take their skills to the next level. Blending product knowledge, experiences and assortment has greatly benefitted Sur La Table, and even against a challenging specialty retail landscape, the retailer has once again found its niche.
These retailers are often at the top of wedding registry lists, which could benefit traffic as we head into the summer months and the height of wedding season. Crate & Barrel, while not solely a kitchen focused retailer, has long been known as a registry destination that helps registrants outfit a kitchen with all of the cookware and gadgets one could need. Year to date through June, Crate & Barrel traffic is up 3% year-over-year, which is even more impressive considering that its assortment features an array of home furnishings categories, including furniture. Looking at demographic segments using Spatial.ai, Crate & Barrel over indexes in visits from Educated Urbanites and Young Professionals and Sunset Boomers compared the the average of other housewares chains, a signal that the wedding registry business, typically fueled by kitchen goods, could be attracting these particular subsets. Crate & Barrel also has a high level of loyalty in visits compared to other competitors in the space.
As we reported about Wayfair a few weeks ago, home retailers that have created exciting experiences and reasons to visit are still resonating with consumers, despite the tempered interest in the home category. An increased interest in cooking by consumers certainly plays a part in these retailers' success, but they have also had to provide even more incentive to drive traffic growth as consumers shift their attention away from purchasing for their homes. Having an experiential component or registry business have kept kitchen focused retailers more aligned with their consumer’s needs, which drive inherent value in today’s retail landscape, something not easy to come by.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
