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Coffee has been a popular topic for us the past few months. We looked at why the category should still post a solid 2024 despite being one of the stronger categories in the restaurant industry last year. We also examined loyalty trends among Starbucks visitors, and where that might trend in the quarters ahead.
This week, we’re revisiting Dutch Bros., which has been one of our favorite growth stories to watch going back to (and even before) the company’s initial public offering. During the quarter, the company posted 5% comparable-store sales growth, representing 100 basis points of acceleration from Q3 2023. The growth was driven by a combination of factors, including sequential improvement in customer traffic with particular strength in the mid-day and afternoon dayparts (something we see in Q4 2023 visits by daypart compared to Q4 2022). Our data indicates that the periods between 1:00 PM and 7:00 PM saw the largest increases in percentage of visits year-over-year.
What’s driving the growth in mid-day and afternoon dayparts? Management chalked it up to category innovation, including new product platforms like Protein Coffee as well as limited time offers (LTOs), including the successful Truffle Mocha platform that was introduced in Q4 2023. The company is mindful that new products can have an impact on speed of service but appears to be focused on new products that don’t add “a layer of extra complexity” but can still drive incremental visits (something our data also indicates this quarter). Mobile app ordering–something the company plans to test in the Arizona market before potentially rolling out to a multi-shop test–also offers an opportunity with potential to attract new visitors and introduce new occasions, though it will likely be a few years before this functionality contributes to visit counts and financial results.
Looking ahead, Dutch Bros expects to open 150-165 new locations in 2024, compared to the 159 opened across 13 states in 2023. Over time, the company still sees the opportunity for 4,000-plus shops, balanced with “a renewed emphasis on capital efficiency” and a longer-term shift toward more build-to-suit leases and a wider array of prototype units such as end caps (management expects to see the impact of these changes beginning in 2025). From a market standpoint, the company expects to have more openings in existing markets like California, have less relative openings in the Texas market, and opened its first location in Florida (Orlando) this week.
Valentine’s Day presents an opportunity – or at least lays on the pressure – for coupled-up consumers to shower their significant other with chocolates, flowers, or special gifts. And while some shoppers choose to order online or visit stores ahead of time to find the perfect Valentine’s Day gift, those who forgot to plan in advance can stop by brick-and-mortar retailers the day of to ensure they don’t show up to date night empty-handed. So which industries saw the largest boost on February 14th? And how did 2024’s patterns compare to last year’s trends? We dove into the data to find out.
Valentine’s Day may not be a major retail holiday – but the occasion still drives a mid-week visit boost across many retail categories, including Restaurants, Discount & Dollar Stores, Liquor Stores, Grocery, Superstores, Breakfast Shops, and Beauty & Spa. Comparing Valentine’s Day 2024 visits to average visit levels over the previous six Wednesdays reveals a significant jump in traffic compared to the typical mid-week shopping lull.
Restaurants saw the largest visit bump, with visits up 60.0% compared to the average number of Restaurant visits over the previous six Wednesdays. Others opted for a morning coffee or brunch date, driving a 19.7% increase in foot traffic to Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops. And some consumers seem to have chosen a romantic evening, leading to surges in Grocery and Liquor Store visits. Retailers carrying affordable gifts, including Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores, and Beauty & Spa brands also benefited from the Valentine’s Day Boost.
And visits to the analyzed categories weren’t just up relative to the year-to-date Wednesday average – traffic across the board also rose relative to Valentine’s Day 2023, boding well for brick-and-mortar retail in 2024.
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Valentine’s Day is sometimes referred to – not always affectionately – as a Hallmark Holiday. And foot traffic data reveals that the day really does drive significant visit increases to Hallmark stores nationwide, with Valentine’s Day 2024 traffic up 123.2% relative to the previous six Wednesday average. The Paper Store, another major greeting card retailer, also saw a large jump in Valentine’s Day visits compared to the year-to-date same weekday average, and Walgreens and CVS – also major greeting card purveyors – received a visit boost as well.
At the same time, Hallmark, Walgreens, and CVS did not display the same year-over-year (YoY) increases as for the other categories. Instead, YoY Valentine’s Day visits stayed relatively steady – likely due to these chains’ store fleet contractions rather than to any drop in demand. Meanwhile, Valentine’s Day visits to The Paper Store grew by 10.8% YoY – perhaps aided by the company’s expansion.
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Valentine’s Day yields a clear mid-week boost for brick-and-mortar retail, driving visits to a variety of dining and retail segments. And this year’s Valentine’s Day seems to have been particularly successful, driving YoY jumps across many major categories and brands.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
Sweetgreen, which IPO-ed in 2021, and CAVA – public since last year – are continuing their growth spurt. We dove into the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for these emerging fast-casual leaders.
Restaurant visit growth slowed last year as inflation took a toll on discretionary spending. But despite the wider dining deceleration, foot traffic to CAVA and sweetgreen continued to increase, helped by consistent store fleet expansion. Both chains posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains every month of 2023, even as overall foot traffic to the fast-casual category lagged.
The positive trends continued in the new year, when consumers braved the cold to drive a 18.4% and 22.3% YoY increase in January 2024 visits – despite the challenging comparison to an already impressive January 2023.
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Cava and sweetgreen’s success may be attributed to a variety of factors. Both chains are known for their healthy offerings, which may attract the many consumers prioritizing health and wellness in their food choices. Plant-forward meals have also been particularly popular recently, and both CAVA and sweetgreen’s produce-heavy menus align well with this trend.
The income level of the chains’ visitor bases may be another key driver of Cava and sweetgreen’s success. In general, the potential market trade areas of fast-casual dining chains consists of households with income (HHI) levels that are slightly above the nationwide median. The median HHI in the neighborhoods within those trade areas that feed the most visits to fast-casual chains (the chains’ captured market) is even higher.
CAVA and sweetgreen’s potential market trade area median HHIs in 2023 was significantly higher than that in the wider fast-casual category – and the captured market median HHI was even greater. The particularly affluent visitor bases of CAVA and sweetgreen were likely less impacted by last year’s economic headwinds, which may have helped the chains continue to grow their footprint – and visit numbers – despite the wider challenges in the space.
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The similarities between CAVA and sweetgreen extend beyond their high-income visitor bases and shared emphasis on healthy options – both chains also seem to attract a particularly high share of singles. CAVA and sweetgreen’s captured market trade area include 37.9% and 42.3% of one-person and non-family households, respectively, compared to to an average of 34.1% for the wider Fast-Casual category.
Diving into the psychographics confirms this pattern. The two chains’ captured markets include a larger percentage of Educated Urbanites, defined by Spatial.ai: PersonaLive as “Well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs.” Young Professionals, defined as “Well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs” and having an average household size of 1, are also overrepresented for CAVA and sweetgreen’s relative to the wider Fast-Casual category.
The large share of singles in these chains’ trade areas – especially combined with the high median HHI – likely means that CAVA and sweetgreen visitors have fewer overall expenses and fairly large discretionary budgets which can be spent on dining out.
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CAVA and sweetgreen thrived in 2023 and appears poised to continue growing in 2024, with visits to both chains skyrocketing even as foot traffic growth tapered off in the wider dining industry. And the company’s success in attracting high-income visitors from small households – who likely have the funds to continue spending on non-essentials despite the ongoing headwinds – means that both companies are well positioned for continued strength in the new year.
For more data-driven restaurant and dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
January is a time for new beginnings – and nearly half of Americans vowed to improve their fitness in the new year. So with 2024 picking up steam, we dove into the data to explore the current state of fitness. How did leading fitness chains perform last month? And what’s in store for the industry as a whole?
The first month of the year is a time for gyms to shine. Analyzing month-over-month changes in the average number of daily gym visits reveals that the biggest visit spike of the year takes place between December and January, when people double down on their motivation to make a change.
This year was no exception. In January 2024, visits to gyms nationwide jumped by 22.1% relative to December 2023 and were up 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) – despite lapping a very strong January 2023 – indicating that the post-COVID obsession with health and wellness is showing staying power.
Drilling down into the data for the nation’s five most-visited fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of room at the top. Value gym Crunch Fitness led the pack with a 21.1% YoY foot traffic increase, partly fueled by the brand’s continued expansion. Next in line was 24 Hour Fitness, where YoY visit gains highlighted the chain’s recovery from its pandemic-induced troubles. Planet Fitness outpaced its own outstanding 2023 performance with a 1.7% YoY foot traffic increase. And LA Fitness and Anytime Fitness also held their own – with visits just 2.0% and 4.4% under January 2023’s already-impressive levels.
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But the state of fitness isn’t only a national story – it’s also a regional one. Looking at January 2024 YoY fitness visits by state shows significant variations, with some areas seeing strong industry-wide growth, and some seeing YoY visit gaps. Major markets like California, Texas, Florida, and New York all saw visit increases – despite the unusually cold weather in some of these areas, including New York and Texas. Several states, including South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Carolina, even saw visits to fitness centers skyrocket by more than 10.0%. At the same time, parts of the Midwest and South Central regions saw foot traffic dips.
Planet Fitness remains America's most-frequented gym, drawing millions of customers each year with low prices and a quality Judgement Free Zone. In January 2024, a whopping 59.3% of total visits to Crunch Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, LA Fitness, Anytime Fitness, and Planet Fitness – went to Planet Fitness’s vast club fleet. And in 2023, the category leader added 1.7 million new members to its rosters.
Given Planet Fitness’s incredible reach, it may come as no surprise that the chain has jumped on the media advertising bandwagon, announcing last month the launch of its own media network. The network will connect advertising partners with Planet Fitness’s growing audience, leveraging multiple channels – including in-club TV screens and other on-site promotional solutions.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of Planet Fitness’s trade areas across major markets shows just how varied a customer base the fitness leader attracts – with clubs in different areas of the country drawing very different audiences.
In California, for example, the median household income (HHI) of Planet Fitness’s captured market stood at $71.9K in 2023, 16.1% below the statewide baseline of $85.7K. But in New York, the median HHI of the brand’s captured market was $79.9% – 2.7% above the statewide baseline. And though Planet Fitness is squarely positioned as a bargain gym, a significant share of its captured market consisted last year of wealthy households earning more than $150K a year. This metric also varied across regions, as did the household composition of the chain’s customer base – with New York attracting customers from areas with disproportionately high shares of singles, and California drawing visitors from places with outsize shares of large households.
Given the variation in its captured markets, Planet Fitness’s media network offers potential advertisers not just the ability to reach millions of customers – but also the possibility of creating targeted campaigns aimed at different locations’ specific audiences.
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Gyms have flourished in recent years, buoyed by consumers’ growing emphasis on health, wellness, and affordable experiences. But will newly-committed gym rats tire as the power of their new year’s resolutions wanes? How will the sector continue to fare as 2024 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Dutch Bros. has impressed with its foot traffic growth over the past few years. We took a closer look at the foot traffic data to understand where this chain’s growth is headed.
Dutch Bros., the country’s third-largest coffee chain, began as a simple coffee pushcart in Grants Pass, Oregon. Thirty-two years later, the company is one of the fastest-growing coffee chains in the country, having grown to over 900 locations in the country’s North and Southwest regions.
Analyzing the change in monthly visits to the chain since 2019 reveals near-constant growth over the past few years – a noteworthy feat considering the challenges facing the space over COVID and during the recent inflation. And while some of Dutch Bros. visit increase is likely due to its expanding store fleet, the consistency and magnitude of the growth suggests that the chain is keeping its new customers coming back.
Dutch Bros.’ success continued in 2023 and into the new year, with the company posting consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit gains for the past thirteen months. January 2024 visits to Dutch Bros. were 10.0% higher than in January 2023, while overall visits to the coffee space decreased by 2.7% YoY during the same period.
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Dutch Bros.’ drive-thru design helped the chain thrive during the pandemic – and the layout is also helping the chain reach suburban audience segments.
A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, weighted to reflect the number of households in each Census Block Group (CBG) comprising the trade area. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
Analyzing the psychographic makeup of Dutch Bros' trade areas in four major markets – Texas, Arizona, Oregon, and California – revealed that the chain’s captured market attracts an outsize share of suburban audience segments. Specifically, Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” were both overrepresented in Dutch Bros.’ captured market relative to their presence in the chain’s potential market. This suggests that the chain is particularly popular among suburban coffee lovers, regardless of income levels or economic backgrounds. As Dutch Bros. continues its expansion, focusing on suburban, car-centric areas may serve it well.
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Dutch Bros. has been a remarkable success story over the past few years despite the widespread economic headwinds challenges the dining space at large has experienced. Will the chain continue to see its momentum continue into 2024 and beyond?
Stay up-to-date with the latest data-driven dining insights by visiting placer.ai.
Super Bowl LVIII was a memorable event on and off the field. Rising-star quarterback Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers led a valiant effort – though ultimately fell short – against the Kansas City Chiefs and their veteran starter Patrick Mahomes. The game made history as the first-ever Super Bowl hosted in Las Vegas; plenty of cause for celebration – if the city needed any. And because Vegas is packed with world-class entertainment venues just steps away from the stadium, Super Bowl 2024 was poised to be a bash from the get-go. We used the latest location analytics to take a closer look at the Vegas hotspots where fans and celebrities celebrated (or drowned their sorrows) after the game.
Alongside the excitement of the game inside Las Vegas’s Allegiant Stadium, the party atmosphere of The Entertainment Capital of the World did not disappoint. Compared to the two previous Super Bowls, this year’s contest had the highest percentage of postgame hotel & casino visits – a whopping 38.4% of stadium visitors on Super Bowl Sunday visited a hotel or casino immediately after the game.
These venues have numerous attractions – restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and hotel rooms – so it’s difficult to know what specifically drove elevated foot traffic. However, it’s fair to say that postgame parties were a significant factor.
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Diving deeper into the data revealed which Vegas venues drove the most postgame traffic from stadium visitors. Caesars Palace came out on top, welcoming 6.3% of postgame foot traffic. Notably, the hotel’s Omnia nightclub was the location of the 49ers' postgame gathering where Lil Wayne attempted to alleviate the heartbreak of the losing squad.
Las Vegas’ Harry Reid Int’l Airport – where some fans and staff likely made a quick exit after the game – took second place, and Wynn Las Vegas was the third most-visited postgame location and cemented itself as a Super Bowl party destination – having hosted the champs last year as well. This time around, big stars in Chiefs Kingdom – including Patrick and Brittany Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift – showed up for an after-party at Wynn Las Vegas’ XS Nightclub to celebrate the victory to the music of Marshmello and Jelly Roll. The hotel’s Encore Beach Club put on an additional after-party honoring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, and Usher – who performed the Super Bowl halftime show. Ludacris, who also appeared on stage at halftime, was among the big names in attendance.
Wynn Las Vegas, with 3.7% of postgame traffic, was the fourth most-visited postgame venue. The hotel’s Zouk Nightclub hosted the Chiefs’ official after-party celebration, with Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Megan Fox, and Machine Gun Kelly in attendance.
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The Super Bowl LVIII celebrations didn’t end on the Las Vegas Strip. Per tradition, at the end of the game, Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and his family declared “We’re going to Disneyland!” The following day, the Mahomes family was at a sold-out Disneyland Resort to celebrate the win and take part in the iconic victory parade.
The parade – scheduled for 2 pm – proved popular among Disneyland guests. Location intelligence showed that hourly visits to Disneyland climbed during the lead-up to the parade and peaked at the parade’s start time.
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Las Vegas provided a super-sized entertainment backdrop for sports’ biggest stage and one of the most thrilling Super Bowls to date. Location intelligence from the 2024 Super Bowl suggests that fans who make the trip look beyond the in-stadium action for ways to keep the celebrations going after the final whistle.
For more data-driven entertainment, hospitality, and tourism insights, visit Placer.ai.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
