.svg)
Dollar Tree's recently announced plan to sell Family Dollar at a significant loss is another sign of the recent struggles in the discount and dollar store sector, highlighted by last year’s closure of 99 Cents Only and Big Lots' bankruptcy filing. We dove into the data to understand what is driving Dollar Tree’s decision and what this means for Family Dollar moving forward.
The discount & dollar store category had been on the rise before the pandemic, and COVID gave the segment another considerable boost – in part thanks to discount and dollar stores’ designation as “essential retailers” that could remain open during lockdowns. Category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree continued their aggressive fleet expansions to meet the growing consumer demand, which led to a substantial overall increase in visits to the category.
But zooming in on 2024 data suggests that visit growth to the category is slowing down. Although discount & dollar stores are holding on to their pandemic gains – traffic to the segment is still 57.8% higher than it was in 2017 – year-over-year (YoY) growth is slowing, with 2024 visits up 2.8% compared to 2023, in contrast to 2022 and 2023’s YoY jumps of 7.8% and 7.7%, respectively.
This deceleration of growth is not in itself worrisome – no retail category can sustain rapid growth indefinitely. But the visit trends do signal that discount & dollar store leaders seeking an edge over the competition will need to adopt more strategic approaches and avoid allocating resources to overly risky ventures.
Overall visits to the Dollar Tree brand were already on the rise prior to COVID and skyrocketed over the pandemic – leading to a 60.1% increase in overall visits between 2017 and 2024. But, like with the wider category, traffic growth to Dollar Tree seems to be decelerating – the banner posted a 5.4% YoY increase in visits in 2024 compared to a 13.9% YoY increase in 2023.
But Family Dollar lagged behind, apparently immune to the COVID-driven dollar store visit surge. Traffic to the chain in 2024 was down 4.0% YoY and just 3.6% higher than it was in 2017. And although Dollar Tree’s decision to close nearly 1000 Family Dollar stores appears to be bearing fruit – in 2024, average visits per venue were up 1.7% YoY and 16.9% relative to the 2017 baseline – the improvement seems to have been insufficient to prevent the banner’s sale.
Family Dollar has faced plenty of difficulties in the last several years, so it’s difficult to attribute Dollar Tree’s offloading of the banner to a single factor. Still, one major element that likely hurt the brand’s performance was the intensified competition from other discount and dollar store leaders – including from sister banner Dollar Tree.
Family Dollar visitors have always been keen Walmart shoppers – since 2019, over 90% of Family Dollar yearly visitors also visited Walmart, and these cross-visit trends have remained relatively stable over the past six years. Other dollar stores were not always as popular with Family Dollar shoppers – in 2019, less than two-thirds of Family Dollar visitors also visited a Dollar Tree or a Dollar General. But as those chains grew, so did their appeal to Family Dollar shoppers – by 2024, over three-quarters of Family Dollar visitors also visited Dollar Tree or Dollar General – and this increased competition likely hampered Family Dollar’s growth.
Still, despite the increasingly competitive discount and dollar store space, analyzing Family Dollar’s trade area composition reveals that the chain fills a unique niche within the broader discount retail sector.
Family Dollar tends to attract the least affluent visitor base – the median household income (HHI) in the chain’s captured market trade area is $53.9K, compared to $67.6K, $61.8K, and $68.7K for Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, respectively. Family Dollar’s captured market also includes the highest share of urban areas, with 36.9% of its trade area defined as “Urban Periphery” or “Principal Urban Center” by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation database.
Family Dollar can draw on its distinctive position as an urban-based retailer catering to value-seeking consumers to set itself apart from the competition and lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
Although Family Dollar was sold at a substantial discount from its original purchase price, the chain still has a promising opportunity to re-establish itself as a powerful contender in the discount retail landscape. By prioritizing locations in urban areas that are less exposed to direct competition from the other major players and keeping its prices competitive with those of other dollar and discount retailers, Family Dollar can lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai
Consumers have been taking stock of their habits and behaviors over the past few years. With the explosion of semaglutide medications in the market and the high frequency of adoption by consumers, there’s a renewed focus on health and wellness across the U.S. population that extends to other consumption behaviors. One of the outcomes of this change in perspective is the increased scrutiny around the consumption of alcoholic beverages – especially among younger consumers.
At the same time, alcohol consumption increased handily during the pandemic, which has helped liquor stores and retail chains to stand out from the rest of the retail industry. As we hit the five year anniversary of the beginning of the pandemic, it’s time to dive deeper into the Bev Alc space to uncover new trends, changes with consumer engagement, and potential headwinds for the industry.
Liquor store chains benefited greatly from shifts in behavior during the pandemic, and for the most part, they’ve been able to sustain those levels of success over the past few years. However, 2024 signaled a deceleration of foot traffic growth across chains, particularly in the second half of the year.
Bev Alc had been a visitation leader in the essential side of the retail industry in the early days of the pandemic, and the category continued to benefit greatly from sustained levels of alcohol consumption even after pandemic restrictions eased. But as with all pandemic-era consumer habits, as we approach the five year anniversary, reversal of some trends are taking shape: While year-over-year visits continued to rise in 2024, last year’s 4.0% average increase in monthly visits was significantly less than the 8.6%, 9.1%, 7.1%, or 6.7% average increases in monthly visits in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
There are also various factors that could potentially impact the industry this year: Decreased consumption of alcohol that could have played a role in 2024’s softening of visits is likely to continue in 2025, and potential tariffs on popular spirits like Tequila and Mezcal may impact consumer preferences going forward.
From a retailer perspective, Spec’s posted the strongest visit performance while BevMo! had the most challenging 2024 of the larger liquor retail chains, although most chains experienced some softening in foot traffic throughout the year. Bev Alc retail is a notoriously regional and local category, meaning that changes in foot traffic by chain are often impacted by what’s going on in a specific region of the U.S. BevMO! services Arizona, California and Washington, so the chain’s modest performance may point to some decreases in demand across the western part of the country. Meanwhile, Spec’s operates primarily in Texas, and its consistent YoY visit growth throughout 2024 may suggest that the shift in alcohol consumption habits has been more muted in the Lone Star State.
With the broader context of what’s going on across the category analyzed, what’s really driving these changes in visitation to liquor stores? As referenced, there’s been a narrative that younger consumers’ changing alcohol consumption habits will greatly impact the Bev Alc space.
But layering Spatial.ai’s Personalive demographic and psychographic visitor segmentation onto liquor store’s captured market reveals a slightly more nuanced reality. The data shows that between 2019 and 2024, the share of wealthier families and of Educated Urbanites – a younger, well-educated, and more affluent cohort – in the captured market of liquor stores. During the same period, the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles – both segments of younger visitors have lower median household incomes than Educated Urbanites – actually increased.
What the data reveals is that we can’t build a singular narrative around the alcohol habits of all younger consumers; there’s also a layer of socioeconomics that has also impacted consumers' desire to frequent liquor stores and engage in alcohol consumption. This knowledge may also contribute to the changes we’ve seen in BevMo!’s business, as their highest shares of visitation come from wealthier families and Educated Urbanites.
Foot traffic estimates also reveal that consumers have shifted the time of day that they visit liquor store chains. In 2024, we observed a higher share of visits after 3 PM compared to 2019, with the largest penetration shift coming between the hours of 6 PM to 8 PM. Consumers are visiting liquor stores more frequently after working hours than before the pandemic, which underscores the shifting role of alcohol in people’s lives. Our data also indicated a higher distribution of visits during weekdays in 2024 compared to 2019, but a lower share of weekend visits.
Liquor store visit frequency contextualizes the changes that we’ve observed in consumption habits, highlighting that, despite the increased interest in moderating drinking habits, the pandemic did fundamentally shift how people engage with the category and alcohol retail has become more of a presence in consumers’ weekly routines.
As the cultural perception of alcohol shifts, changes are likely to occur across the industry. We’ve observed more liquor brands opening bars and drinking establishments to engage directly with consumers, while there’s also still a continued rise in local and regional brands popping up. Another area that has been growing steadily over the past few years is non-alcoholic beverages. The aisles of grocery stores and liquor stores are now filled with non-alcoholic alternatives of brand names, as well as mocktail entrants into wildly popular canned cocktails. Beyond that, there’s also been an increase in the number of non-alcoholic bottle shops, and the prevalence of non-alcoholic options will likely continue to grow and extend to other areas of the country outside of major cities. The Bev Alc industry is at a true crossroads with consumers, and consumer behavior will dictate how the industry must evolve to stay relevant.
The apparel space has faced considerable headwinds in recent years – from changing consumer preferences to cutbacks in discretionary spending. We dove into the data for various apparel categories to explore emerging industry trends and see what foot traffic patterns can tell us about the state of apparel in 2025.
Consumers’ emphasis on value and the excitement of a constantly changing inventory have significantly impacted the apparel space in recent years – and off-price chains and thrift stores are reaping the benefits.
Between 2019 and 2024, off-price and thrift store chains claimed growing shares of the overall apparel visit pie. Off-price’s visit share jumped from 28.1% in 2019 to 35.1% in 2024, while thrift’s increased from 9.4% to 12.2%. And while this growth came at the expense of traditional department stores and general apparel chains, the relative visit share of our luxury segment remained relatively stable – likely due to its more affluent and less value-seeking clientele.
The activewear and athleisure segment, for its part, has followed a more nuanced path in recent years. The activewear and athleisure segment saw relative visit share growth during the pandemic (between 2019 and 2021), as home workout routines and comfortable clothing became the norm. But in 2022, the category began to revert to its pre-pandemic visit share, likely due to the return of in-person gatherings and return-to-office trends.
Analysis of yearly visits to various apparel categories provides further insight into their foot traffic trajectories.
Since 2021, off-price visits have steadily increased compared to 2019, while thrift store visits have consistently outperformed 2019 levels since 2022. This indicates that the off-price and thrift segments are experiencing absolute visit growth alongside increased relative visit share.
However, over the last four years, visits to traditional department stores and general apparel retailers have consistently underperformed 2019 baselines – while luxury retailers have seen visits decline even as they have maintained relative visit share stability. Meanwhile, following three years of visits above 2019 levels, activewear and athleisure visits have begun to decline, dipping below the 2019 benchmark in 2024.
Diving into the audience demographics in the apparel space reveals several trends behind the growth of the off-price and thrift segments.
In 2024, compared to the other apparel categories, off-price had the largest share of large households (3+ people) within its captured market* (42.1%), while thrift stores had the smallest share (39.0%). This could mean that off-price chains resonate with families seeking budget-friendly staples, whereas thrift stores appeal to singles hunting for unique items.
*A category’s captured market is derived by the census block groups (CBGs) from which retailers draw their visitors weighted by the share of visits from each, and thus reflects the population that visits the category.
Diving deeper into consumer behavior in the apparel space reveals additional visitation trends in the off-price and thrift categories.
Of the analyzed apparel categories, off-price had the longest average visit duration in 2024, followed closely by thrift. Though off-price and thrift formats share a treasure-hunting environment, off-price's higher proportion of larger households may contribute to longer dwell times, as visitors shop for multiple family members at once. Still, thrift store visitors, likely to come from small households, seem to spend significant time treasure-hunting for their own wardrobes. Activewear and athleisure, meanwhile, saw the shortest average dwell time – likely driven by customers who go into the stores knowing exactly what they want.
And of the apparel categories analyzed, thrift had the largest share of weekday visits (Monday - Friday) in 2024, perhaps since its visitors are more likely to be singles and young couples free of family commitments after work or retirees with weekday availability. Still, off-price also had a relatively elevated share of weekday visitors compared to most apparel categories, suggesting that visitors juggling family-driven schedules view off-price shopping as an errand rather than a recreational activity.
Consumer preferences for value and unique finds are reshaping the apparel retail landscape, driving substantial growth in the off-price and thrift segments. While traditional retail models face challenges, understanding these shifts in consumer behaviors and demographics is key to finding success in this dynamic environment.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
CVS and Walgreens, the two largest drugstore chains in the country, have faced increased competition from superstores and online platforms in recent years. To adapt, both chains are optimizing their brick-and-mortar footprints – and Walgreens is going private following its recent acquisition by Sycamore Partners.
We took a look at the two chains’ visit performance to see what lies ahead for each.
CVS and Walgreens command a major portion of drugstore visits nationwide – and their foot traffic data sheds light on how each is weathering heightened competition. CVS, which consolidated its fleet between 2022 and 2024, saw both overall visits (+0.6%) and average visits per location (+2.9%) elevated YoY in Q4 2024, suggesting that these store closures have helped bolster the chain.
Walgreens, which also closed a significant number of stores over the past two years, saw overall foot traffic lag slightly throughout 2024. However, average visits per location to the chain were up in all but one quarter of the year, suggesting that Walgreen’s rightsizing moves are having a positive impact on the chain, directing more traffic to higher-performing locations.
These patterns held into 2025, with CVS enjoying elevated YoY visits in all weeks analyzed, while Walgreens visits remained, for the most part, slightly below 2024 levels. Walgreens recently announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners, and while the impact of this deal remains to be seen, it could create opportunities for innovation and strategic transformation.
CVS and Walgreens are major players in the pharmacy space, controlling the lion’s share of offline pharmacy visits (excluding general and grocery retailers with on-site pharmacies such as Walmart and Kroger.) And even as the two chains have reduced their footprints, their overall market presence has expanded – perhaps a reflection of the broader challenges facing smaller pharmacy operators.
Between Q1 2023 and Q4 2024, the share of visits to drugstore and pharmacy retailers attributed to CVS increased from 41.9% to 44.0%, while Walgreens’ share grew modestly from 49.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the share of visits to smaller chains declined from 8.9% to 5.5%. This indicates that CVS’s growing visit share has not come at the expense of Walgreens – underscoring both chains’ resilience and growth potential in the face of sector-wide headwinds.
CVS closed hundreds of stores between 2022 and 2024 as it sought to refine its retail strategy – and now, the drugstore seems to be ready for its next move. The chain announced the rollout of about a dozen small-format stores, set to open throughout 2025. These stores will stock more of the essentials – cold medicine, first-aid care – and offer pharmacy services, while eschewing some of the traditional drugstore offerings like greeting cards and groceries.
And exploring CBSA-level visitation patterns at CVS suggests that this move may indeed be giving consumers what they want – especially in certain areas of the country. In 2024, short visits to CVS (i.e. those lasting less than ten minutes) increased YoY in many CBSAs nationwide, but some regions, like the Northeast, experienced stronger short visit growth than others. As CVS plans out its small-format expansion, focusing on regions with strong interest in short visits – where consumers may be particularly interested in an efficient shopping experience at a scaled-down location – could help it capture even more market share while improving customer convenience.
CVS and Walgreens have faced their fair share of challenges in recent years, but both are adapting to stay competitive. New leadership and store formats may help them better serve customers and navigate the shifting retail pharmacy market.
Will the segment continue to adapt to a changing retail environment? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Recently, Target announced plans to add around 2,000 items to its baby and toddler assortment, with the goal of "supporting families throughout the parenting journey with products that bring joy and convenience to their everyday lives.”
The data suggests that Target shoppers are likely to react positively to this expanded baby assortment: Layering Placer.ai's trade area data with Spatial.ai's psychographic segmentation shows that Target's trade area is over-indexed for a range of family-oriented consumer segments, and affluent families in particular account for a significant share of Target's captured market. An expanded baby assortment is therefore likely to appeal to much of Target’s visitor base.
In a period marked by ongoing inflation and rising grocery prices, two chains – Trader Joe’s and Aldi – continue to thrive. We took a closer look at the two chains’ data to see what is driving their continued success.
Trader Joe’s and Aldi continue to be growth leaders in the grocery space. Both focus on selling a more limited selection of products and are known for providing quality at more budget-friendly prices. Both have also been in expansion mode, opening new stores and strengthening their market presence.
In 2024, Trader Joe’s visits increased by 6.2% compared to 2023, while Aldi saw an even more significant traffic rise of 18.2%. And while store expansion certainly contributed to this growth, average visits per location also trended upward, indicating strong demand across the two chains’ existing store networks. Trader Joe’s, which added about 35 stores in 2024, saw visits per location rise by 3.2%. Aldi, which added over 100 new locations in 2024, experienced a 13.5% increase in visits per location.
These strong foot traffic trends have continued into 2025, with weekly visits maintaining 2024’s momentum. Visits and visits per location were consistently elevated, an impressive feat given 2024’s already strong visit metrics.
As both chains continue to expand – Trader Joe’s has announced dozens of new openings in 2025, and Aldi has hundreds in the pipeline – the chains are well positioned for an even stronger 2025.
Trader Joe’s and Aldi offer a similar shopping experience – limited assortment, smaller store sizes, and a focus on budget-friendly offerings – but in practice, the two chains attract different audiences. In 2024, the median household income (HHI) in Trader Joe’s captured market trade area was $110.1K, significantly higher than Aldi’s $75.7K and the national median for grocery shoppers ($82.0K).
And while the two grocers attract shoppers from different sides of the income spectrum, analyzing consumer behavior at Aldi and Trader Joe’s reveals commonalities that may be driving some of their success.
Both Trader Joe’s and Aldi received a larger share of weekend visitors (35.0% and 34.4%, respectively) than the grocery nationwide average (32.1%). This suggests that, despite both chains’ limited assortment, consumers view Trader Joe’s and Aldi as weekend stock-up destinations – taking advantage of their days off to enjoy a more leisurely shopping experience at these value-driven retailers.
The relatively high share of weekend visits is consistent with another emerging trend at the two grocers that suggests Trader Joe’s and Aldi are increasingly becoming primary grocery destinations.
Between 2023 and 2024, both Aldi and Trader Joe’s saw a decrease in the share of visitors that visited another grocery chain immediately before or after their Aldi or Trader Joe’s trip. This shift may be a result of an increasingly budget-conscious shopper, and suggests that visitors are choosing Aldi and Trader Joe’s as a main shopping destination rather than supplementing trips to larger chains.
This marks a promising shift for Trader Joe’s and Aldi as they continue expanding their footprints. By commanding a bigger slice of the grocery pie, both chains are solidifying their positions as go-to destinations for full grocery hauls.
Trader Joe’s and Aldi seem well-positioned as 2025 gets underway, with both driving continued foot traffic growth and becoming more of a primary destination for their shoppers.
As both stores expand their footprint, will these trends hold?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
