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Every year in March and early April, thousands of young people descend on Florida beaches to soak up some sun, kick back with friends, and have a good time. But while the influx of revelers can be a boon to local businesses, some municipalities are pushing back against the mayhem. This year, Miami Beach famously announced its intention to “break up” with spring break (“It’s not us, it’s you”) – instituting a series of restrictive measures, from curfews to elevated parking fees, designed to temper the crowds.
But what’s happening on the ground? How did this year’s spring break impact local businesses in key Florida destinations like Miami, Key West, Panama City Beach, and Daytona Beach? Which retail segments continued to benefit from the excitement – and who were the visitors driving foot traffic to their venues?
Florida is home to the most-searched spring break destinations in the United States. And perhaps thanks to the influx of vacationers, location intelligence shows that Quick-Service Restaurants (QSR) and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Florida spring break hotspots enjoy significant annual visit boosts during March and early April.
The extent of the seasonal boost varies between CBSAs – and though this year’s traffic spikes were slightly lower than last year’s bumps, the two dining segments continued to benefit strongly from spring break-fueled visit bumps in 2024.
Visits to QSR & Fast-Food venues and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Panama City – known as the spring break capital of the world – were up 57.6% and 56.9%, respectively, during the week of March 11th 2024, compared to an early January 2023 baseline. This represents a minor decline from the comparable period last year (the week of March 13th, 2023), when visits were up a respective 59.2% and 68.6%.
QSR and coffee and breakfast chains in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Key West, and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach CBSAs also experienced significant visit spikes during the week of March 11th, 2024. Though the March foot traffic increases in these CBSAs were smaller than those seen in Panama City, they were nearly on par with the visit bumps seen in the comparable period of 2023.
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Who are the visitors driving this spring break dining activity? Drilling down into the data for leading Panama City QSR and coffee chains shows that college student influxes are likely a major contributing factor.
In July 2023 – during Panama City’s peak summer season – the captured markets of local Whataburger, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Chick-fil-A locations were nearly devoid of STI: Landscape’s “Collegian” segment – a category encompassing currently-enrolled college students. But in March 2024, the share of this segment in the brands’ captured markets skyrocketed.
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Analyzing the audiences of local Panama City resorts reveals a similar pattern. During the month of July, the captured markets of SpringHill Suites and Holiday Inn Resort – two venues popular among spring breakers – included miniscule shares of Collegians. But in March, the share of college students in the resorts’ captured markets jumped to 13.8% and 10.0%, respectively – highlighting the role of undergrads in driving hotel visits during this period.
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Spring break is party time – and Florida has traditionally been at the center of it all.
How will 2024 spring break continue to unfold this year in the Sunshine State? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the excitement?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
DC residents and businesses have been on tenterhooks ever since plans were announced in December 2023 to move the Caps and Wizards to Potomac Yard in Alexandria, VA. Original plans called for a new Wizards practice facility, a separate performing arts center, a media studio, new hotels, a convention center, housing and shopping. Meanwhile, DC mayor Muriel Bowser worked furiously to keep the teams, eventually putting together a $500 million+ deal that was officially approved in the last week, so that the teams would stay in the District until “at least 2050.” That is good news for those businesses by Gallery Place/Chinatown, and the teams can keep the Washington moniker, as opposed to potentially being the “National Landing” teams were they to have moved to the Potomac Yard area.
Migration to the Mountain States, named for the sprawling Rocky Mountain range that runs through the region, has been on an upward trend in recent years. And one state in particular – Utah – has received an impressive influx of new residents.
Which areas are experiencing the most growth? And what is driving migration to the Beehive State? We take a closer look.
Utah, with its iconic national parks and burgeoning tech industry, is growing fast. According to Placer.ai’s Migration Trends Report, Utah experienced an 5.5% rise in population between January 2020 and January 2024, partially driven by inbound domestic migration: 1.8% of the state’s January 2024 population moved in between January 2020 and January 2024.
Utah has a relatively young population – the median age in Utah (according to the 2021 ACS 5-Year Projection dataset) is 31. But relocators to the state seem to be coming from older states – the weighted median age in the states of origins of newcomers moving to Utah over the past four years was 38.
But although Utah’s median age is lower than the median age in the states of origin, the median HHI in the Beehive State is higher than in its feeder states. Between January 2020 and January 2024, the weighted median HHI in the states feeding migration to Utah was $71K/year, lower than the Utah median of $79K/year (although higher than the national average of $69.0K/year).
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Although Utah as a whole has seen positive net migration over the past four years, the new residents are not evenly distributed across the state’s major metropolitan areas. Inbound domestic migration was particularly strong in the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), with both states also seeing significant increases in their population (10.7% and 5.1%, respectively) over the past four years. But during the same period, the migrated share of the population of Utah’s largest CBSA – Salt Lake City – has declined, and the overall population in the Salt Lake City CBSA grew by just 1.0%. So what is driving migration to Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield?
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January 2020 to January 2024 migration data reveals that relocators to Provo and Ogden come from CBSAs with a lower median age and HHI compared to those moving to Salt Lake City: Newcomers to the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs came from CBSAs with a weighted median HHI of $73K and $72K, respectively, compared to a $75K median HHI for CBSAs feeding migration to the Salt Lake City CBSA. And the weighted median age in the CBSAs of origin for Provo-Orem and Ogden Clearfield was 25 and 32, respectively, compared to 33 in the CBSAs of origin for Salt Lake City.
The movement of younger people from lower-HHI areas to these CBSAs may indicate that many of those relocating to Utah to benefit from the state’s robust economy are specifically choosing the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield metro areas.
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Niche’s Neighborhood Grades – available in the Placer.ai Marketplace – assigns grades to various types of regions based on a variety of factors, including job opportunities. And comparing the Niche rating for “Jobs” assigned to Utah’s three largest CBSAs with the aggregate “Jobs” grade assigned to the CBSAs of origin also suggests that Provo and Ogden’s economic opportunities are driving migration to these smaller metro areas.
All three Utah CBSAs analyzed received a higher “Jobs” grade than their CBSAs of origin – indicating that the employment opportunities in all three metro areas are likely drawing newcomers. But while Salt Lake City only got a “B+” in “Jobs” – just one grade up from the aggregate grade assigned to its areas of origin – Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield got a “Jobs” grade of “A-”, or two notches up from the “Jobs” grade in their CBSAs of origin. The highly robust job markets in these smaller CBSAs may explain why newcomers seem to prefer Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield to Salt Lake City.
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Utah’s population growth makes it one of the most exciting states to watch, and the state’s promising employment opportunities seems to be a major draw for newcomers to the state.
Will Utah continue to experience population growth?
Visit placer.ai to keep up with the latest migration trends.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
In a world where convenience is key and online shopping reigns supreme, many brands are turning to experiential retail to draw visitors into brick-and-mortar stores. We take a look at three companies with different types of experiential offerings – Michaels, DICK’S, and Lowe’s Home Improvement – to understand what experiential retail can look like in 2024.
Some retailers are encouraging consumers to engage fully in their brand by dedicating entire brick-and-mortar venues entirely to immersive experience. Sporting goods brands in particular, including Lululemon with its yoga studios and Nike and its training studios, have employed this strategy to directly engage with their core audience. And perhaps the best example of this is the DICK’S House of Sport concept, launched in 2021 by sporting goods retailer DICK’S.
DICK’S currently operates 12 House of Sports locations where visitors can repair their bikes, pick out a golf club, use a climbing wall or batting cage. The concept has been highly successful, especially as more people engage in some form of recreational sports or fitness activities, and the chain is looking to add at least 100 more of these experiential stores in the next five years.
Quarterly foot traffic patterns suggest that the new locations will be met with enthusiasm. Visits to the three longest-running House of Sports stores in Q4 2023 were 7.2% higher than they were in Q4 2022, while visits to DICK’S Sporting Goods stores nationwide were 2.3% lower for the same period. Psychographic data also reveals that House of Sport visitors also tend to be slightly older and more established than visitors to DICK’S nationwide – and this older audience may be more inclined to spend more than their younger counterparts.
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By creating an immersive athletic experience that taps into the growing popularity of personal fitness, House of Sport can continue to draw in visitors and foster community – and serve as a model for other sporting goods retailers looking to expand their experiential offerings.
Retailers who don’t want to devote an entire location to their experiential offering can also leverage their regular venues to offer visitors hands-on engagement with their products on certain days or time slots. Rising costs have led more people than ever to turn to DIY – and meeting that demand, leading home improvement retailer Lowe’s has introduced a DIY workshop on Saturdays and Sundays at 100 locations across the country. Visitors heading to participating Lowe’s stores will be able to participate in workshop stations and take advantage of all-day demos – with no registration required. The company also runs a family-friendly Weekending at Lowe’s program, which allows visitors to register to free workshops focused on child-friendly activities, such as creating a butterfly biome or a tabletop basketball game
Providing people with a hands-on, practical approach to home repairs may help Lowe’s expand its customer base as more people embrace DIY concepts. Participants in the DIY workshops may feel more confident in tackling new projects at home. They are also more likely to choose Lowe’s products due to familiarity with the store and its offerings — a win for the company.
Comparing year-over-year (YoY) visits at Lowe’s locations with DIY workshops to the foot traffic performance of the chain as a whole indicates that the DIY venue, while experiencing the effects of the ongoing retail headwinds, are managing to perform better than Lowe’s stores overall. And analyzing locations using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lowe’s DIY stores are particularly popular among rural segments, with more "Rural Average Income" and "Rural Low Income" segments in their captured markets than their potential market*.
*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
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Lowe’s can harness this data if it seeks to expand the DIY concept further to help it capitalize on its success among rural audiences – and other retailers can take note of the demand for hands-on workshops from this segment.
A third model for experiential retail empowers the customer to take the reins and decide when to schedule the in-store event – and who to add to the guest list. Craft chain Michaels, which has long emphasized child-friendly experiences like summer camps and free classes, recently introduced store-hosted birthday parties for kids up to age 13.
Demographic data from both potential and captured trade areas suggest that this focus on kids activities is succeeding in attracting the family households in its trade area. Michaels attracts a larger share of married couples with children in its captured market than in its potential market, and has a captured market household size of 2.6, slightly larger than its potential market household size. The share of households in Experian: Mosaic’s “Suburban Style,” “Flourishing Families”, and “Family Union” segments were also all higher in Michaels captured market than in its potential market.
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Michael’s seems to be positioning itself as a one-stop shop for crafters of all ages, and focusing on children’s events may help the chain attract more family segments to its stores. This serves as a reminder of the draw that quality children’s entertainment can provide and offers a blueprint for retailers wishing to attract more families to their locations.
These three chains prove that there are plenty of ways to attract people into brick-and-mortar stores. By offering workshops, events, and in-store attractions, the three chains are building brand awareness and increasing their foot traffic.
Will experiential retail continue to dominate in 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog to stay up-to-date on the latest retail trends.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
One of the major stories of 2023 was the rise in food prices, with costs up roughly 25% since 2020 – and the increasing costs of food and other goods have helped discount grocers thrive.
We checked back in with two grocery chains known for their bargain prices and private labels – Aldi and Lidl – to see how they’re doing.
Aldi offers prices that rival those of discount grocers, making it a major player in the discount grocery segment. And these attractive prices have helped the company see significant visit growth over the past few years. Year-over-year (YoY) monthly visits to Aldi were up throughout 2023 and into 2024, with some of the growth due to the chain’s aggressive expansion. And the company plans to grow even further – Aldi has announced plans to open another 800 stores over the next few years.
Lidl – another German-based grocer – opened its first location in Virginia in 2017. The chain currently has around 170 locations in the country, primarily on the East Coast, and is also expanding – albeit at a slower pace. Between February 2023 and February 2024, YoY visits to Lidl were up almost every month with only a slight dip in January 2024 – perhaps due to the unseasonal cold – a promising sign for the discount grocer as more consumers than ever choose low-cost food options.
Although both Lidl and Aldi are German-owned discount grocers, examining the demographics for the two brands' trade areas nationwide sheds light on the differences between the two chain’s consumer bases.
Analyzing the trade area median HHI reveals that Lidl attracts a higher-income clientele than Aldi: The median household income (HHI) in Aldi’s trade area was slightly lower than the the nationwide median, with the median HHI in the chain’s captured market even lower than the median HHI in its potential market. This indicates that Aldi locates its stores in areas that are accessible to the average consumer and succeeds in attracting also the slightly lower income segments within its potential trade area.
Meanwhile, Lidl’s potential market median HHI stood at $78.8K/year in 2023, and the median HHI in its captured market was even higher – $88.1K/year – indicating that Lidl stores are located in more affluent areas, and that the company caters to the wealthier households within those neighborhoods.
The share of households with children in Aldi’s potential and captured market was also almost identical to the nationwide average – indicating once again Aldi’s success in reaching the average U.S. grocery shopper. Lidl, on the other hand, saw more households with children in both its captured and potential markets, with the share of households with children in its captured market around two percentage points higher than the share of households with children nationwide. So while Aldi and Lidl do share some similarities in terms of origins, preference for private label, and pricing, the trade area analysis points to major differences between the two chains’ audiences.
*A chain or venue’s potential market refers to the people that reside in its trade area, based on the business’ True Trade Area and weighted by census block group (CBG) within the trade area according to the size of its population. Captured markets represent the population that visits the business in practice, and the data is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question.
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Diving into the psychographic data for Aldi and Lidl adds another dimension to the trends revealed by the demographic data. While both brands are popular among suburban audiences – Aldi tends to attract a more blue-collar customer, while Lidl is frequented by a wealthier suburban segment. The share of visitors falling into the “Small Town Low Income” category was 7.5% for Aldi compared to 0.9% for Lidl. Conversely, Lidl saw 16.7% of its visitors falling into the “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment, while Aldi had 10.6% of its consumers in that category.
And while Aldi and Lidl have a hold on different suburban segments, the chains’ expansion strategies seem geared to grow each chain’s reach outside the other’s orbit. Lidl has been opening stores in big cities along the East Coast, including New York City’s tony Chelsea neighborhood, perhaps in a bid to reach more of the wealthier customers that favor the brand. Aldi, meanwhile, recently acquired grocery chains Winn-Dixie and Southeast Grocers, brands that typically attract a more price-sensitive consumer. This acquisition will significantly expand Aldi’s presence and will likely appeal to value-oriented shoppers, a segment already receptive to its offerings.
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The past few years have seen the grocery space adapting to an increasingly value-oriented consumer, and Aldi and Lidl have benefitted from this shift. As inflation cools and both companies expand their footprints, will they continue on their upward trajectory?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Since COVID, millions of Americans have relocated from major population centers in California, New York, and Illinois (among others) to other regions of the country. Whether in search of job opportunities, affordable housing, or simply a change of scenery, thousands of people have decamped to places like Tampa, Florida, Bozeman, Montana, and Portland, Maine. And the great state of Texas – with its wide open spaces and relatively affordable cost of living – has emerged as a favored destination.
So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to explore domestic migration trends in the Lone Star State. How much has the population of Texas grown as a result of domestic migration over the past several years – and which metro areas (CBSAs) are attracting new residents? Are people moving to major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, or are they heading out to the suburbs?
Between December 2019 and December 2023, Texas’ population grew by 4.3% – with nearly a third of this increase driven by new residents hailing from elsewhere in the U.S.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, many of these new arrivals made a bee-line to Texas’ four most populous metropolitan areas – Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land. During this time period, each of these CBSAs experienced positive net migration (meaning that more people moved to these areas than away from them) ranging from 0.4% to 3.4%.
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But a deeper analysis of foot traffic trends reveals that, even as the CBSAs as a whole added new residents, the primary cities anchoring the CBSAs often lost more domestic migrants than they gained. Austin proper lost 6.1% of its population to relocation, while Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio lost 4.2%, 3.9%, and 3.2%, respectively. Only Fort Worth – Texas’ fifth-most-populous city – experienced positive net migration over the past four years.
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Why are major metropolitan areas seeing population influxes, even as their central urban hubs experience outflows? Drilling down even deeper into zip-code level location intelligence provides a striking snapshot of what’s actually happening on the ground.
In all four CBSAs, zip codes belonging to the metro area’s flagship city were more likely to experience negative net migration – while those in further-away suburbs and towns were more likely to see positive inflow.
The relative growth experienced by Fort Worth can be understood against this backdrop: Fort Worth may be one of Texas’ biggest cities, but it is smaller – and less expensive – than Dallas, which dominates the metro area.
Suburban life offers residents many of the benefits of proximity to major urban centers, without some of the drawbacks – like smaller homes. And with more Americans free today to live further away from the office, many appear to be choosing suburban chill over big-city hassle.
Home to the Alamo, a premier state fair, and arguably one of the cultiest grocery chains in the country (H-E-B, of course), Texas has become a key destination for Americans seeking greener (and cheaper) pastures. And though major metropolitan centers in the Lone Star State have seen significant positive net migration over the past four years – much of that growth has taken place outside of the state’s biggest cities.
How will Texas’ population continue to evolve over the next months and years? Will big cities make a comeback – or are suburbs and smaller towns poised to remain the main drivers of growth?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven domestic migration analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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