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Dutch Bros Visits Surge, Dunkin & Starbucks Traffic Trends Improve in Q2 2025
Coffee’s top chains show diverse paths in Q2 2025. Starbucks’ visits narrowed declines, Dunkin’ saw modest growth via value, and Dutch Bros continued rapid expansion. These distinct strategies shape the competitive market.
Shira Petrack
Jul 24, 2025
3 minutes

Starbucks: Narrowing the Visit Gap

The coffee space has become increasingly competitive in recent years. And while traffic to the segment is up, the growth of small and medium sized chains may be coming at the expense of Starbucks. Visits to the reigning coffee giant were down slightly (0.1%) YoY in Q2 2025 while average visits per location declined 4.2% in the same period. 

Still, these trends mark an improvement compared to last quarter, when YoY visits and average visits per venue were down 0.9% and 5.4%, respectively – suggesting that the company's "Back to Starbucks" strategy and recent menu innovations are beginning to drive a turnaround. 

Dunkin’ Grows Slightly

Meanwhile, Dunkin' – the second-largest coffee chain in the country – is seeing modest growth, with overall visits and average visits per venue up 1.7% and 0.3% YoY, respectively, in Q2 2025. Like Starbucks, Dunkin' showed improvement in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 – perhaps an early sign of strengthening consumer confidence. 

But while broader market forces may have helped, Dunkin's Q2 2025 turnaround may also be attributed to the chain's promotional efforts – including a new ad campaign to promote the chain's $6 Meal Deals. As value continues to drive consumer decision-making, Dunkin's emphasis on affordable bundles positions it well to maintain its visit share despite the growing competition in the space. 

Dutch Bros Visits Spike

Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing coffee brands in recent years, maintained its momentum in Q2 2025, as coffee chains betting on small-format, largely drive-thru locations – including 7Brew, PJ's Coffee, Biggby, and Foxtail – continue to resonate with consumers.

Overall visits to the Oregon-based chain grew 13.8% YoY alongside a 0.8% increase in average visits per venue – indicating that the chain's ongoing expansion is not cannibalizing traffic from existing venues. This bodes well for the brand as it continues its aggressive expansion – 2,029 stores by 2029.

Success Brewing for H2?

As we look to the second half of 2025, the coffee sector will be characterized by the distinct strategies of its key players. Dutch Bros' aggressive expansion will continue to challenge the incumbents on a local level, while Dunkin's focus on value will likely remain a key advantage with budget-conscious consumers. The ultimate test will be for Starbucks, as the industry leader's ability to translate its strategic innovations into sustained visit growth will determine its capacity to defend its market share.

For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor

Article
Decoding Shake Shack & Wingstop's Q2 2025 Visit Performance
Shake Shack Q2 visits up 13.7% (per-venue -1.7%). Wingstop visits up 3.6% (per-venue -6.3%). These divergent paths show brand resilience. Shake Shack appeals to higher HHI. Wingstop's lower HHI family base faces budget pressure, impacting loyalty. Both brands adapt for future success.
Shira Petrack
Jul 23, 2025
2 minutes

Traffic Performance Reveals Divergent Growth Trajectories

Shake Shack traffic increased an impressive 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025 while average visits per venue held relatively steady at -1.7% – indicating that the chain's aggressive expansion strategy is capturing new market share without cannibalizing existing locations.

Meanwhile, although Q2 2025 visits to Wingstop were up 3.6%, the chain's average visits per venue declined 6.3% – which may suggest that discretionary dining brands serving lower-income consumers may be experiencing pressure from tightening household budgets. 

Demographic Differences Between Wingstop & Shake Shack 

Analyzing trade area demographic data reveals that Wingstop's captured market has a median household income of $69.5K – significantly lower than Shake Shack's $97.0K. Wingstop's trade area also includes a much higher proportion of households with children.

Wingstop attracts families with tighter budgets who must stretch their dining dollars further, which likely contributed to the decline in average visits per venue during this period of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Shake Shack's appeals to higher-income consumers with more discretionary spending power could explain the chain's impressive visit strength despite the ongoing headwinds.

Small Shifts in Visitor Loyalty 

Looking at the change in visit frequency compared to 2024 also suggests that Wingstop is feeling the impact of its visitors' tighter budgets. 

Wingstop still maintains a significant advantage in customer loyalty, with 16.8% to 18.1% repeat monthly visitors in H1 2025 compared to Shake Shack's 10.5% to 11.4%. But comparing these numbers to 2024 reveals that Wingstop's share of repeat visitors has declined slightly since 2024, while Shake Shack has posted modest monthly gains throughout H1 2025.

This shift suggests that budget-conscious families may be reducing their regular Wingstop visits to save money, while Shake Shack's strategic expansion is bringing locations closer to customers which could be driving increased repeat visitation.

Wingstop's Well-Positioned For Long-Term Resilience  

Despite facing economic headwinds, Wingstop's continued positive visit growth and superior customer loyalty metrics demonstrate the brand's strong fundamentals and deep connection with its core family demographic.

As economic conditions stabilize, Wingstop's established customer base and proven appeal to budget-conscious families positions the chain for a strong rebound, particularly given that families with children represent a large and resilient market segment that will likely return to regular dining patterns when household budgets recover.

Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.

Article
Warby Parker & Allbirds Q2 2025: Unpacking Divergent Retail Strategies
Warby Parker sees visits up, though Q2 VPL dipped -2.7%. Allbirds' overall visits fell -12.5%, but Q2 VPL surged +18.2%. Both find unique success in their divergent brick-and-mortar strategies, proving different paths can move forward.
Bracha Arnold
Jul 22, 2025
2 minutes

Warby Parker: Poised for Continued Growth

Eyewear chain Warby Parker continues to be a disruptor. The glasses chain got its start online and made the pivot to brick-and-mortar in 2013. And while many retailers who made that move have since shifted to other retail formats, Warby Parker is pressing on – the brand has plans to open 45 new locations in 2025 alone and is partnering with Target to open store-in-stores in H2 2025.

The chain's ongoing expansion drove year-over-year (YoY) visit increases for all months of 2025 so far. Average visits per location showed more variance – average visits per venue declined 2.7% YoY in Q2 2025 – perhaps reflecting the brand's deliberate focus on market penetration and its use of stores as strategic omnichannel touchpoints rather than purely traffic-dependent locations.

Allbirds Rightsizes Right

Like Warby Parker, footwear brand Allbirds began online before pivoting to physical retail. But Allbirds is now going in a different direction and shrinking rather than expanding its footprint. In March 2024, the company made the strategic decision to shutter about one-third of its store fleet – and the result has been impressive. While overall visits declined YoY by -12.5% in Q2 2025, visits per location surged, increasing by 18.2% in the same period.

Monthly visits followed a similar pattern, with overall visits generally lower than they were in 2024 while visits per location were largely positive – and looking at visits since the beginning of 2025 shows that the YoY overall visit gap has also been narrowing. Visits in January 2025 were 37.1% lower than they were in January 2024, but by June 2025 that visit gap had narrowed to just 15.1%. Meanwhile, average visits per location were elevated by 13.2% YoY in June 2025. This impressive shift highlights that demand for in-store shopping at Allbirds is strong, and the decision to focus on its highest-performing stores has had the intended effect.

Warby Parker and Allbirds: Promise Ahead

Warby Parker and Allbirds have taken divergent approaches to their brick-and-mortar strategy, and both chains are managing to keep things moving forward.

What will H2 look like for these brands? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.

Article
How Has Cinemark Avoided the Movie Theater Slowdown? 
Movie theaters generally remain below 2019 visits, but Cinemark bucks this, nearing pre-pandemic levels (down 2.6% for flagship brand). Its success comes from targeting budget-conscious families with value memberships and child-friendly amenities, sustaining visits despite industry challenges.
Shira Petrack
Jul 21, 2025
4 minutes

Movie theater visits were up year-over-year in Q2 2025, but traffic generally remains significantly below 2019 levels – with the exception of Cinemark, where visits are almost on par with pre-pandemic levels. We analyzed the data to understand how movie-going behavior has changed since COVID and why Cinemark is staying ahead of the curve. 

Year-over-Year Strength 

Movie theater traffic jumped year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025 thanks to the release of several successful blockbusters, including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Lilo & Stitch, and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. 

Movie Visits Lag Pre-COVID Levels – But Cinemark Bucks the Trend 

Still, baseline movie theater attendance remains significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic. And although YoY trends for AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were relatively consistent, comparing these chains' recent visit trends to pre-pandemic traffic reveals major differences in long-term performance. 

Between July 2024 and June 2025, visits to the two largest chains – AMC and Regal – were 33.2% and 40.0% lower, respectively, than they were between July 2018 to June 2019. The visits per location gap was slightly narrower – due to rightsizing efforts that consolidated traffic into fewer movie theaters – but the data still indicates that AMC and Regal theaters are generally emptier than they were in 2018-2019. 

But bucking the trend is Cinemark, which saw traffic to its flagship Cinemark brand dip just 2.6% compared to pre-COVID, while average visits per location were relatively stable at -0.8%. Thanks to this impressive recovery, Cinemark has significantly strengthened its position in the wider movie theater landscape. 

Cinemark's Fuller Theaters 

A deeper look at the data confirms Cinemark's success in attracting moviegoers. Cinemark theaters average more visits both per location and per square foot, indicating that their higher visit numbers stem from fuller theaters rather than larger venues or more locations.

Blockbusters Playing Larger Role in Driving Movie Visits 

But just because Cinemark's visit numbers are relatively aligned with 2018-2019 traffic levels does not mean that the chain has not been impacted by the shift in post-COVID movie-going behavior.

Comparing monthly visits between July 2018-June 2019 and July 2024-June 2025 reveals increased traffic volatility at all three chains, with higher peaks and deeper valleys compared to average monthly baselines. This volatility likely stems from blockbusters playing a more central role in driving movie visits. Fewer consumers now go to movies casually – instead, they save their limited movie budgets for major releases.

The data also shows that all three chains have seen a relative drop in visits to matinee screenings (before 5 PM) along with a relative increase in late-night visits (9 PM to 1 AM) – which could also be consistent with a more intentional and less casual movie-going pattern. 

And Cinemark hasn't been immune to these changes. The chain has also experienced similar monthly visit volatility, fewer matinee visits, and more late-night visits – matching the patterns seen at AMC and Regal.

Cinemark's Success – Less Affluent, More Family-Friendly Visitor Base 

So what is driving Cinemark's success? Some of the answer may lie in its strategic focus on less affluent family audiences. Compared to AMC and Regal, Cinemark attracts visitors from areas with lower median household incomes and higher concentrations of families – a positioning the chain seems to be deliberately cultivating.

Cinemark has built an ecosystem designed for budget-conscious families: their Movie Club membership includes monthly rollover ticket credits and concession discounts, while their Summer Movie Clubhouse offers discounted family packages. Select locations also feature Camp Cinemark auditoriums – screening rooms specifically designed to be child-friendly.

This strategy creates a virtuous cycle. While Cinemark's lower-income audience has tighter entertainment budgets, they're also less likely to have premium home theater setups that compete with the theatrical experience.

When these families do decide to splurge on entertainment, Cinemark's value-oriented approach and family-friendly amenities make it the logical choice – turning occasional visits into a more loyal customer base that sustains traffic even during industry-wide downturns.

Cinemark Highlights Path to Success for Movie Theaters

While most movie theater chains continue to struggle with significantly lower attendance compared to pre-pandemic levels, the strong YoY performance suggests that the movie theater recovery story is still being written. Cinemark's success demonstrates that chains willing to adapt their strategies to serve underserved audiences can not only survive but thrive in the transformed post-pandemic entertainment landscape.

For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor

Article
What Do July Sales Events Reveal About Consumer Sentiment in H2 2025?
July 2025 promotions primarily boosted weekday retail traffic, but overall in-store visits were down YoY. Walmart notably defied this trend with increased visits. Consumers focused on high-value purchases during the period.
Shira Petrack
Jul 18, 2025
2 minutes

Major retailers held promotional events around Amazon's Prime Day sales event. How did the promotional events impact retail foot traffic? And what does the data reveal about the state of consumers going into the second half of 2025? 

July Promotional Events Mostly Boosted Mid-Week Visits 

Comparing daily visits to major retailers during their July campaigns against same-day YTD averages (e.g., Sunday July 6th traffic versus average Sunday visits in 2025) reveals that sales primarily boosted weekday traffic. Visits increased Monday through Friday during the promotional periods, but every retailer that extended its campaign to Saturday – typically the busiest in-store shopping day – experienced traffic declines compared to YTD Saturday averages.

Individual retailer analysis shows Best Buy achieved the strongest response, with visits increasing 13.2% to 21.9% between July 7th and 11th compared to same-day YTD averages, and the final day (Sunday July 13th) posting a 7.2% increase. Conversely, Dollar General saw the weakest performance – only three of seven promotional days generated visit increases, all remaining in low single digits.

This pattern suggests consumers leveraged sales for big-ticket purchases at discounts but didn't use the opportunity to stock up on lower-priced items.

Generally Lower YoY Visit Numbers

Comparing average daily visits during 2024 and 2025 July campaigns shows generally lower in-store traffic this year. Timing likely played a role – except for Best Buy, all analyzed retailers ran their 2024 campaigns before Amazon Prime Day, while this year all five overlapped with Amazon's event. This means that, unlike in 2024, Target, Walmart, Kohl's, and Dollar General directly competed with Amazon Prime Day in 2025, potentially driving the in-store traffic decline.

This calendar shift makes Walmart's performance particularly noteworthy. Average daily visits during "Walmart Deals" increased 8.9% compared to last year – despite facing direct Amazon competition for the first time.

Walmart's strength may stem from its recent "Who Knew?" advertising campaign, which may have kept the retailer top-of-mind for many customers during this period of intense retail competition.

The YoY visit growth during July campaigns represents another milestone in the company's turnaround and brand refresh, demonstrating the legacy retailer's continued relevance in today's competitive retail landscape.

The data reveals that consumers approached July 2025 promotional events with strategic intent, focusing on high-value purchases during convenient weekday shopping windows rather than impulse buying across all categories.

Walmart's standout performance amid increased competition suggests that strong brand messaging and strategic positioning can overcome market headwinds, providing optimism for retailers heading into the second half of 2025.

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor

Article
McDonald's Snack Wrap Return Drives Immediate Foot Traffic Surge
McDonald's Snack Wrap re-launch on July 10 drove a significant visit surge, up 15.0% from the 2025 YTD daily average. This initial success highlights the power of nostalgia-driven menu innovation to boost traffic, crucial for McDonald's ongoing efforts to reverse recent sales and traffic plateaus
Shira Petrack
Jul 17, 2025
1 minute

McDonald's recent re-introduction of the snack wrap joins the recent wave of nostalgia-driven menu innovations – and initial data suggests that the fan-favorite is already driving up visits to the chain. On July 10th – the day of the launch – McDonald's traffic nationwide was up 15.0% compared to the 2025 YTD daily average and 11.4% higher than the YTD Thursday average, and visits remained high on Friday and Saturday as well. 

The Snack Wrap's return comes at a critical time for McDonald's, as the chain continues to lean on menu innovations to turn around its recent traffic plateau plateau and sales dips

Will the initial excitement translate into a sustained visit hike? 

Visit placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining analysis. 

Reports
INSIDER
Pricing Strategies Driving Restaurant Visits in 2024
Dive into the data to explore the state of the restaurant industry in 2024 and see how leading chains are navigating the challenges posed by rising prices.
September 26, 2024
7 minutes

Dining in 2024 (So Far)

The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.

And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.

Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.

Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack. 

Dollar-Driven Dining Decisions 

Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains. 

Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.

Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market). 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means. 

Who Can Afford to Raise Prices?

Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.

Shake Shack: Drawing Affluent Audiences 

The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K. 

Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year. 

Texas Roadhouse: Thriving Through Price Hikes

Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.

Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins. 

This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.

QSR Limited-Time Offers (LTOs) to the Rescue

Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country. 

Hardee’s August Combo Deal: A Recipe for Loyalty

Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.

August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth. 

McDonald’s Special Meal Deal

McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December. 

McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.  

For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%. 

These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic. 

Michelin Star Success 

While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.

The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.

These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.

The Final Plate

Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door. 

INSIDER
The Rising Stars: Six Metro Areas Welcoming Young Professionals
Find out which metro areas are seeing positive net migration and discover what might be drawing newcomers to these cities.
September 23, 2024
3 minutes

The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive. 

But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them? 

CBSAs on the Rise

The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate. 

Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.

All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.

Younger and Hungrier

What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations. 

Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.

Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.

Housing and Jobs: Upgrading and Improving

Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B. 

While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.

Final Grades

Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility. 

Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?

Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news. 

INSIDER
Redefining Retail Spaces: Lessons from the C-Store Category
Dive into the data to see how convenience stores are redefining retail spaces.
September 16, 2024
5 minutes

Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs. We looked at the recent foot traffic data to see what this category's successes reveal about the current state of brick-and-mortar retail.

Seasonal Stops Along The Way

Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism. 

Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality. 

Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.  

Regional Chains Expanding Their Reach

While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.

Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama. 

Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.

Taking the Pulse of Statewide Dwell Times

This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.  

One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.

Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes. 

Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat. 

Limited-Time Options

Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits. 

One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.

A Strong Year for Convenience Stores

The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?

Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates. 

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