.svg)
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Recent survey data shows that while most people don’t want to go back to the office five days a week, they also don’t want to be fully remote. Many employees – and companies – prefer a middle-of-the-road approach that balances flexibility with opportunities for in-person engagement, learning, and collaboration.
But what’s happening on the ground? We checked in with our Nationwide and regional Office Indexes to find out.
Last month saw a continuation of the positive office recovery momentum observed in February and March 2024. April 2024 office visits were just 32.2% below what they were in the equivalent period of 2019 (pre-pandemic), and nearly the highest they’ve been since COVID. Comparing monthly visits to an April 2019 baseline also shows that April 2024 was outperformed only by August 2023 – a rare month featuring 23 business days. (April 2024 had 22 business days – as did April 2019).
Drilling down into the data for major regional hubs shows Miami and New York solidifying their office recovery leads with respective pre-COVID visit gaps of just 14.0% and 16.9%. But these weren’t the only cities to shine: Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Atlanta also outperformed the nationwide baseline – and like Miami, experienced their single busiest in-office months since COVID.
All the analyzed regional hubs saw significant YoY office visit growth – with the prize once again going to San Francisco, where visits were up 26.0%. Though San Francisco still lags significantly behind other regional hubs compared to pre-COVID, the city’s persistent YoY office visit growth may signal a light at the end of the Golden Gate City’s commercial real estate tunnel.
To be fair, April 2023 had two less business days than April 2024 – a fact that may have served to amplify YoY growth trends across the board. But even accounting for this discrepancy, last month’s strong office recovery was a particularly strong one – showing that RTO remains very much a work in progress.
The benefits and drawbacks of remote work are still being debated. But no matter how you slice it, spending some time in the office each week seems to have its benefits. As companies and employees continue to negotiate the new hybrid status quo, office visit patterns will continue to shift nationwide.
Follow Placer.ai for more data-driven office insights.
We dove into the latest foot traffic analytics for leading movie theater chains – AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark – to uncover how recent consumer behavior and visitor demographics are setting the stage for the cinema category’s next chapter.
Cinemas have yet to reclaim their pre-COVID glory – and during the first few months of 2024, visits to AMC and Regal, and to a lesser extent Cinemark, remained substantially below 2019 levels. While some of these visit gaps can be attributed to exhibitors downsizing their real estate portfolios, the rise in at-home entertainment continues to impact pre-pandemic foot traffic comparisons.
In addition, since the pandemic, blockbuster releases have taken on even greater importance as drivers of movie theater visit spikes. And in early 2024, a relative absence of new blockbusters took its toll on theater operators’ performance. Between January and April 2024, cinema leaders saw YoY visit dips – likely attributable in part to delayed releases. And smash-hit titles that drove box-office success in early 2023 – including Avatar: The Way of Water, Ant Man, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie – helped set the stage for challenging YoY comparisons.
Despite these visit gaps, analysis of changing visitor demographics suggests that there remain a variety of ways for theater operators to succeed.
Analyzing cinema leaders’ captured markets with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that today’s movie-goers are more affluent than they were before COVID. After dipping in Q1 2023, the median household incomes (HHIs) of AMC, Regal Cinema, and Cinemark’s captured markets spiked in Q1 2024, surpassing the chains’ own pre-pandemic benchmarks. This shift may be due in part to discretionary spending cutbacks by less affluent consumers – who may be particularly inclined to hold off on going to the movies when there are no big releases on offer.
For exhibitors, the increase in visitors’ spending power presents an important opportunity: Affluent movie-goers are likely to spend more on revenue-boosting concessions and premium formats, a boon for theater chains at a time when visit gaps linger.
Five years after COVID sent movie theaters into a tailspin, the category is holding its own. Though routine visits remain lower than they were before the pandemic, a shifting customer base continues to provide operators with new avenues for success.
For more data-driven entertainment insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The fitness industry has experienced steady growth in recent years, propelled by consumers’ prioritization of health and wellness – and gyms across the country are benefiting.
So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to examine the segment’s performance during the first months of the year. Did Fitness’ strong January showing persist beyond the season of new year’s resolutions? And how did major gym chains – including Planet Fitness, Life Time, Crunch Fitness, and EōS – perform in Q1 2024 relative to last year?
Fitness has been a consistent success story over the past few years, and the category is showing no signs of slowing down. Year-over-year (YoY) visits to the industry were up nearly every week between January and April 2024, with the sole exception of the week of January 15th, when an Arctic blast saw many people hunkering down indoors. And visits remained slightly elevated even during the week of March 25th, when Easter celebrations likely distracted many people from their gym goals – an impressive feat given the comparison to a non-holiday week in 2023.
Drilling down into visit trends for eight major fitness chains shows that in today’s robust fitness environment, there’s enough demand to sustain a variety of chains: Both premium and mid-range options like Life Time and LA Fitness as well as more affordable choices like Planet Fitness and Crunch Fitness saw visits increase or remain steady for most of Q1 – and all saw YoY visit bumps in April.
Some gym-goers hit the gym several times a week and spend hours working out, while others have a more relaxed get-in-shape schedule. And analyzing leading chains’ visitation patterns shows that gyms are finding success by catering to fitness buffs’ varying preferences.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the data reveals a strong correlation between a chain’s share of frequent visitors (i.e. those visiting the gym eight or more times in a month), and a chain’s share of visitors staying longer than 90 minutes. While some clubs, including Life Time and EōS appear to attract highly dedicated gym-goers, others, including Planet Fitness and Anytime Fitness, seem to draw more casual visitors.
The fact that both fitness chains attracting frequent visitors for longer workouts and gyms that cater to more casual exercisers who spend less time in the gym during each session are seeing positive visitation trends indicates that there are plenty of models for fitness success in 2024.
One thing seems clear – interest in gyms is not going away anytime soon. Visits continue to show YoY growth, and the industry is full of options for every kind of fitness enthusiast. Whether opting for occasional visits or adhering to a structured workout regimen – there’s something for everyone.
To stay ahead of the latest retail and fitness developments, visit placer.ai/blog.
Following a busy week of Q1 2024 updates several restaurant chains, the key question facing operators is whether menu price increases the past several years have forced consumers into alternative food retail channels. Several restaurant chains--most notably McDonald’s–highlighted a more “discriminating” consumer during their quarterly updates. According McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski on the company’s Q1 2024 update this week: “U.S. consumers continued to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending which is putting pressure on the QSR industry.” In turn, this has resulted in flat-to-declining industry traffic in the U.S. during the quarter. Looking at year-to-date visitation trends across the different restaurant categories, we see a weak start to the year due to inclement weather, followed by a rebound to low-single-digit growth for the limited-service categories (QSR and fast casual) and low-single-digit declines for the full-service restaurant chains.
As we discuss throughout this week’s Anchor report, consumers will likely remain discriminating over the next several quarters. As such, we expect a continuation of the channel shifts we’ve been witnessing across the broader food retail sector. According to our data, the QSR category saw a +5% increase in visits from 2019-2023, while the full-service restaurant category saw a -8% decrease in visits (partly explained by the permanent closure of many smaller, regional full-service dining chains). Conversely, the grocery, superstore, convenience store, and dollar/discount stores have all seen meaningfully higher visit growth over the same period (as our friends at Restaurant Business have also called out), indicating these channels are taking share from the restaurant industry.
Looking at McDonald’s cross-visitation trends during the quarter, we see further evidence of this shift. We’ve compared the favorite grocery chains of McDonald’s visitors in Q1 2024 to Q1 2023 below. We see a material increase in the percentage of McDonald’s visitors that visited an Aldi location year-over-year–24% versus 17% in the year ago period. We also see a decrease in percentage of visits to most conventional grocery chains.
Not surprisingly, McDonald’s plans to accentuate its value offerings in the coming quarters. On its update call, management noted that 90% of its U.S. locations offer meal bundles for $4 or less and that it has been running several promotions through its digital app. The company also noted the need to align around a strong national value proposition so that the company can use its tremendous media scale to drive high consumer awareness. It will likely take time for McDonald’s to organize around its value platform, but once it does start to promote its value offerings on a nationwide basis, we would expect much of the rest of the QSR category to follow suit.
This weekend, Formula 1 is once again ready to take the track in the United States, this time at the Miami Grand Prix on Sunday. The Miami Grand Prix is the first U.S. race in the 2024 calendar, followed by the U.S. Grand Prix in Austin, Texas and the Las Vegas Grand Prix in the fall.
America has grown into the new epicenter of the sport and is the only country besides Italy to host multiple races in a singular season. Not only does the U.S. host races, but countless American retail, tech, CPG and hospitality brands serve as team sponsors, including Marriott, Rokt, Tommy Hilfiger, Google, eBay, Coca Cola and more. For brands looking at the consumption habits of younger, more affluent consumers, the rise of Formula 1 in the U.S. can help unlock insights on this group. Credit for Formula 1’s exponential growth in popularity is largely due to the Netflix docuseries, Drive to Survive, which just released its sixth season in the first quarter of 2024. According to Netflix, over 90 million hours of the program were watched throughout the first half of last year. The immense popularity of the show and its behind the scenes access to the luxurious world of F1 generated a large demand for the sport by Americans, and the appetite for home grown F1 races where U.S. based fans can participate is palpable.
2024 is the third running of the Miami Grand Prix, held around Hard Rock Stadium, with the event debuting in 2022. According to Placer.ai data, traffic at the event, which usually runs Thursday-Sunday, in 2023 increased 3% compared to 2022. Usually during grand prix weekends, visitors have the option to purchase single or multi-day passes, and our data (as shown below) indicates that there were fewer repeat visits in 2023 compared to 2022; consumers may have chosen single day passes more often or made the event a part of a larger weekend in Miami. The highest number of visits occurred on Sunday each year, which aligns with the fact that the actual race takes place that day, with practice sessions and qualifying taking place on Friday and Saturday respectively.
Despite slightly fewer loyal visits during the weekend, the time spent at the event increased, with an average of 179 minutes, up 4% year-over-year. With consumers spending around three hours at the venue, there is a huge opportunity for American CPG and retail companies to engage with this captive audience.
The U.S. Grand Prix, held annually in Austin, has seen similar success from the influx of American F1 fans. Traffic at the 2023 event weekend grew by 38% compared to 2019. 2022 saw peak event attendance, most likely due to a competitive and exhilarating end to the 2021 season that bled into the next year. 2023 also saw the highest percentage of three-day visits during the weekend, highlighting that most U.S. Grand Prix attendees visit the track multiple days for the various race weekend events.
While the growth of the event itself is impressive, the change in visitor demographics provides an even more striking opportunity for American retailers and brands. 2023 brought the highest percentage of visits from young professionals and young urban singles compared to all other segments in 2023. Young professionals also grew to 36% of visits in 2023 from less than 30% in 2019, showcasing the rise in younger and more affluent visitors. Both the popularity of Netflix coupled with the increase in influencer marketing brand trips to races may both have contributed to this shift over time.
It’s clear that Formula 1’s growing popularity has no doubt fueled race expansion stateside and that has been able to capture the attention of the elusive younger consumer, especially those with disposable income. Brands, licensees and retailers have all jumped on the opportunity to collaborate with drivers, teams and race weekends to tap into this growth market. Sporting events are a highly competitive landscape, excuse the pun, but the intersection of sports and content have paved the way for Formula 1’s success in the U.S.
Last week, Chipotle’s Q1 2024 update featured a number of positives, including visitation trends that outperformed the broader restaurant category and strong contribution from new store openings. More than 5% of the company’s 7% comparable sales growth during the quarter was driven by transaction growth, and year-over-year visitation trends have accelerated thus far in April. (Recall that our year-over-year visitation data includes contribution from stores opened during the past year as well as improvements in visits per location).
Impressively, there were multiple sources driving Chipotle’s transaction growth during the quarter. The company’s strong track record for menu innovation under CEO Brian Niccol continued during the most recent quarter, with the company spotlighting Barbacoa and the return of Chicken Al Pastor as a limited time offer. Management will continue to explore new menu additions, and is currently developing a new product pipeline for the next 18-24 months.
While menu innovation is important, it’s clear that throughput (the amount of customers that can be served with Chipotle’s assembly line process) is becoming a major factor in visitation traffic outperformance. We believe this has been driven by lower employee turnover rates—the company noted that it is experiencing the lowest turnover rates since Niccol joined the company in March 2018. According to management, throughput reached the highest levels in four years because of more consistent staffing, which aligns with our visit per location data for the past five years (below).
Chipotle noted that its throughput improved by nearly 2 entrees in its peak 15 minutes compared to last year with each month showing an acceleration. According to the company, “the restaurants run more smoothly as our teams are properly trained and deployed, which allows them to keep up with demand without stress. This leads to more stability and therefore more experienced teams that execute better every day, and this can be seen in our latest turnover data which is at historically low levels.” Our data also shows that visitation trends are improving during its peak hours, but that its peak hours are also changing. Historically, the hours between 12:00 PM-2:00 PM have represented Chipotle’s most frequently visited hours, but post-pandemic, we’ve seen visits shift to the 6:00 PM-8:00 PM timeframe (below). Return-to-office trends partly explain these trends, as do Chipotle’s push into smaller, more suburban/rural markets.
When we look at visit per location trends by hour, we see that most of the improvement during the Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023 took place during the later afternoon and evening dayparts.
Looking ahead, Chipotle sees an opportunity to improve peak hour throughput, including adjusting the cadence of digital orders to better balance the deployment of labor (thus eliminating the need to pull a crew member from the front makeline to help the digital makeline during peak periods). The company also plans to bring back a coaching tool for its associates that it had in place prior to the pandemic. With more and more retailers embracing generative AI to help educate and train their employees-–a trend we heard consistently at this week’s Analytics Unite conference–we would expect Chipotle to also adopt generative AI with its updated coaching tool, potentially unlocking greater throughput improvements in the process.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
