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During periods of economic uncertainty and tighter consumer spending, demand for smaller indulgences often remains resilient. In beauty, this phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “lipstick effect” – the idea that consumers continue seeking affordable products that provide a sense of comfort, self-care, or reward even as discretionary budgets tighten.
Still, even this resilience doesn’t allow beauty chains to rest on their laurels. In 2025, both Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works introduced new corporate strategies aimed at driving their next phase of growth – but from very different starting points. Ulta is evolving from a position of relative strength, leaning into loyalty, discovery, and brand partnerships to sustain momentum. Bath & Body Works, meanwhile, is navigating a more uneven traffic recovery as it works to reduce its reliance on promotional peaks and expand engagement across digital and alternative channels.
How are those efforts resonating with consumers? And how are expanding e-commerce options impacting brick-and-mortar beauty visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty’s has been faring well in recent months, with positive same-store and overall traffic increasing year-over-year (YoY) in nine of the last twelve months.
That consistency may reflect the impact of Ulta Beauty Unleashed – the company’s strategy aimed at deepening customer engagement and refining in-store execution, launched just over a year ago. The initiative has helped fuel continued growth in Ulta’s loyalty ecosystem, which now boasts more than 46 million members, while also creating a flywheel effect in which greater customer participation supports Ulta’s personalization capabilities that, in turn, help drive further engagement.
Ulta’s strong loyalty infrastructure also plays a role in the retailer’s ability to offer an innovative product assortment through brand-building – another pillar of the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy. This approach helps Ulta sustain a sense of discovery and newness within the store environment, driving consistent traffic while also creating opportunities for outsized visit spikes. This dynamic was evident in February 2026, when the launch of the Rare Beauty partnership drove record-breaking demand and contributed to a 10.3% increase in YoY visits to the chain – marking Ulta’s largest monthly traffic gain of the past twelve months.
Bath & Body Works, on the other hand, has been more reliant on promotion-driven peaks – something its leadership has been candid about since announcing its new Consumer First Formula.
Double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July and October 2025 as well as in January 2026 aligned with periods of heightened promotional activity – including the retailer’s Semi-Annual Sales. But traffic moderated between those peaks, highlighting what management believes to be an overreliance on promotional cadences.
As Bath & Body Works CEO Daniel Heaf put it “transformations of this scale take time.” The foot traffic data suggests that the brand may still be facing near-term headwinds, with monthly YoY traffic trending down since February 2026 – although the dips may also indicate that a portion of in-store demand is shifting to e-commerce and alternate sales channels.
Bath & Body Works recently opened a new Amazon storefront, refreshed its mobile app, and lowered its free-shipping threshold, moves aimed at capturing digital demand and promoting discovery – particularly among younger consumers. And the company’s launch into campus bookstores reflects a similar effort to leverage alternative distribution channels to extend the brand’s reach and build relevance with younger consumers. These digital and alternative retail investments are designed to build longer-term engagement that could eventually translate into sustained growth for the chain.
But even as Ulta and Bath & Body Works lean into digital and alternative channels, the brands are continuing to invest in their owned stores – and analyzing shifts in visit length for the two chains offers further insight into the role stores continue to play within each brand’s broader transformation strategy.
A Q1 comparison reveals that since 2023, more than 37% of visits to Ulta lasted over 30 minutes. The retailer has been rolling out an updated store format since 2022 – designed to promote exploration with a more intuitive category-based layout. And investments in the store experience have continued with ongoing Beauty Bar activations and events, K-Beauty World shop-in-shops, and the recent Wellness by Ulta Beauty pilot, all likely contributors to a more discovery-driven customer experience and longer dwell times.
Bath & Body Works, while seeing a smaller share of visits exceeding the 30-minute mark than Ulta, posted a significant increase in visits of that length between Q1 2025 (32.5%) and Q1 2026 (34.1%). This indicates that the Gingham+ redesign introduced in 2025 – featuring scent bars, dedicated product testing zones, and a more immersive merchandising approach – may be influencing the amount of time shoppers spend in-store.
While digital and nontraditional retail channels have become critical components of modern beauty retail strategy, the in-store experience remains a key driver of customer engagement – whether a retailer is navigating a period of transformation or working to sustain long-term growth.
The data suggests that beauty retail’s next phase of growth will depend on more than category resilience alone. Both Bath & Body Works and Ulta Beauty are investing in new ways to engage consumers – from loyalty ecosystems and digital expansion to immersive store experiences designed to encourage discovery. And while their strategies differ, both underscore a broader industry reality: even in an increasingly omnichannel environment, physical stores remain central to how beauty brands build engagement and long-term consumer loyalty.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
January and February saw a modest year-over-year (YoY) uptick in visits to the DICK’s Sporting Goods banner, while March traffic softened. However, March 2026’s visit decline appears at least partially calendar-driven – the month had one fewer Saturday than the previous year – and traffic rebounded to near-flat levels in April.
Gap entered 2026 with momentum, but foot traffic softened in both March and April – perhaps reflecting the calendar shift as well as broader consumer caution and its impact on discretionary spending. Still, the traffic slowdown may be a temporary setback. Gap continues to expand into apparel-adjacent retail categories such as beauty and accessories – with new product launches in the months ahead that could help reinvigorate visits.
Meanwhile, lululemon’s North American business continues to face headwinds, as domestic performance lags behind stronger international results. Yet, the company – still searching for a new CEO – is guiding for a turnaround in the second half of 2026. Planned initiatives include new product introductions, reduced reliance on markdowns, and ongoing store expansion. Whether visit trends begin to reflect that anticipated recovery will be closely watched as the year unfolds.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first four months of 2026 have been challenging for department stores, as consumer caution and rising gas prices weigh on discretionary spending. But visit data reveals a clear divide between chains gaining traction and those continuing to lose ground – offering a window into what’s working in today’s environment.
Looking at quarterly performance, Midwestern chain Von Maur stood apart from the field in Q1 2026, posting an 8.7% increase in overall visits and a 5.9% gain in average visits per location – the strongest performance in the segment on both measures.
Von Maur’s appeal can be attributed in part to a tightly controlled model that prioritizes service, brand curation, and pricing consistency over scale and promotions. And as a regional favorite in the Midwest, the brand benefits from a well-established customer base.
Other players with similar positioning also showed relative strength in Q1. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regional favorite Boscov’s outperformed several larger national chains, while Nordstrom saw average visits per location increase 1.6% year over year – suggesting continued traction for curation-led formats. Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also held steady, reinforcing the resilience of higher-end department stores even as Saks navigates bankruptcy proceedings.
Still, monthly data highlights just how exposed the department store segment is to discretionary, time-rich shopping trips, which tend to concentrate on weekends – and which consumers may be pulling back on in 2026.
In Q1 2026, Saturdays accounted for more than a quarter (25.4%) of department store visits, well above both the 17.4% average for non-discretionary brick-and-mortar retailers and the 21.6% average for discretionary chains. As a result, March 2026 – which had one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – saw visits soften across the board.
April, however, painted a more encouraging picture. With the calendar normalized, several chains returned to flat or positive year-over-year same-store visit trends. Von Maur led once again with an 8.5% increase, while Nordstrom (+0.9%) and Bloomingdale’s (+1.7%) also posted gains. Macy’s, as it advances its Bold New Chapter strategy, saw its year-over-year visit gap narrow to 2.4% in April. As the chain continues to close underperforming locations and invest in its Reimagine 125 cohort, performance may improve further in the months ahead.
Department store performance in Q1 2026 reflected today’s increasingly bifurcated landscape, where premium, experience-driven retailers continue to draw shoppers even amid broader caution, while mid-market chains remain more exposed to macro pressure. Even in a constrained environment, consumers are still willing to show up for brands that offer a clear, compelling experience – but that bar is rising, making it harder for less differentiated players to keep up.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Overall visits to U.S. grocery stores rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026, extending a streak of growth that now spans four consecutive quarters. At the category level, most of this growth was driven by expansion, as the average number of visits per location remained essentially flat YoY.
Still, a deeper look at the data reveals meaningful variation across segments and regions, shedding light on the dynamics shaping grocery traffic in 2026.
Grocery visit growth has been positive in every quarter over the past year, peaking at 3.3% YoY in Q4 before moderating to 1.7% in Q1 2026. Per-location visits, however, lagged overall growth throughout the analyzed period, increasing just 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026.
The takeaway? New store openings, rather than stronger performance from existing locations, are accounting for most of the category's recent visit gains.
That said, the combination of ongoing expansion and steady performance at existing locations points to resilient underlying demand. Even as mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce players compete for share, dedicated grocery stores remain a fundamentally durable format.
The relatively flat nationwide per-location performance also masks some regional variation. Several statewide markets – including Montana, Colorado, Maine, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Indiana – saw per-location visit growth exceeding 2.0% YoY in Q1 2026.
This divergence suggests that local dynamics, ranging from population growth and suburban expansion to competitive intensity and store rollout strategies, are playing a role in shaping performance. In other words, while national trends appear stable, grocery remains a highly localized business where market-specific factors can drive outperformance.
A closer look at different grocery segments reveals further variation.
Fresh-format grocers like Trader Joe's and Sprouts led in overall visit growth, highlighting a rapidly expanding segment that is capturing a growing share of traffic while also maintaining solid YoY visit performance at existing stores. Value grocers also saw expansion-driven gains, though per-location traffic was softer at -2.8% YoY. And though traditional grocery chains have not been on an expansion trajectory, they slightly outperformed fresh-format players on a per-location basis, with visits up 1.5% YoY. For a segment that has lagged peers for several quarters, this represents notable improvement.
What's behind traditional groceries’ emerging store-level strength?
One explanation may be traditional grocers' success in capturing the short trip – the fastest-growing type of grocery visit. Whether driven by curbside pickup or quick fill-in runs for a few missing items or an inexpensive prepared lunch, these visits are becoming increasingly common. And a look at relative category-wide visit share shows that traditional grocers are the only grocery segment over-indexing on sub-10 minute visits, capturing a greater share of short visits than of overall grocery traffic in Q1 2026.
This suggests that habit, proximity, and assortment breadth may matter more than price positioning when a shopper just needs a few items fast. Traditional grocery shoppers may also be more likely than value-oriented shoppers to use curbside pickup – a service that may come with markups or additional fees – while fresh and specialty shoppers may be more inclined to browse in-store.
The Q1 2026 grocery landscape is defined by steady but uneven growth. New store expansion is fueling topline gains, while performance varies across regions and formats. At the same time, the rise of short, convenience-driven trips is subtly reshaping the competitive landscape – favoring retailers that can deliver speed, accessibility, and consistency over those competing primarily on price or experiential differentiation.
So is traditional grocery making a comeback? Not in the sense of reclaiming overall growth leadership. But in some of the areas that increasingly matter, traditional grocers are carving out a durable and defensible role.
Will traditional grocery retailers continue to thrive as the year wears on? Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Warehouse clubs continue to benefit from their strong value proposition, sustaining meaningful visit growth even amid macro uncertainty. And elevated fuel prices are adding another tailwind, driving increased traffic to wholesale club gas stations. Leveraging location intelligence, we examined recent performance for Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
Recent visit data for BJ’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club reveals how the warehouse club model continues to resonate with consumers. All three chains sustained year-over-year (YoY) visit growth over the past six months, and while growth moderated briefly in March 2026, a rebound in April suggests the slowdown was more calendar-driven than demand-driven. March 2026 included one fewer Saturday than the prior year – a small shift that can have a significant impact on time-rich retail formats.
Real estate strategy also emerged as a key factor shaping traffic trends across the three wholesalers. Costco and BJ’s both saw gains in overall visits alongside same-store growth, indicating that performance was supported by a combination of new unit expansion and growing demand at existing locations. Costco added 15 domestic warehouses in fiscal 2025 and appears on track for a similar pace in fiscal 2026, while BJ's opened seven clubs in fiscal 2025 and and is signaling a more aggressive expansion over the next two years, including its recent entry into the Dallas-Fort Worth market.
Sam's Club, by contrast, added just one new location in its fiscal 2026 (ended January 2026) while completing 14 remodels – pointing to a strategy centered on optimizing its existing footprint. This emphasis is reflected in the close alignment between overall and same-store visits, suggesting that growth is being driven primarily by improvements within the current store base. Still, Sam’s Club’s pipeline includes at least one upcoming opening, which could indicate a gradual shift toward expansion – potentially blending its optimization strategy with the unit growth that has supported momentum for its peers.
Beyond the traffic inside wholesale clubs, an equally notable story is unfolding at their gas stations. As the chart below shows, visits to BJ’s Gas, Costco Gas, and Sam’s Club Fuel accelerated in early March 2026, aligning with a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Iran War. Perhaps expectedly, this demonstrates that competitively priced fuel is a meaningful traffic driver during periods of elevated gas prices – reinforcing the value proposition of warehouse club memberships. If fuel prices remain high, members may be more inclined to consolidate shopping trips around fuel fill-ups, potentially boosting both gas station traffic and in-club spending.
Diving deeper into March and April visitor patterns offer further perspective into how fuel prices are influencing wholesale club member behavior. Across all three wholesale gas chains, the share of visitors who visited at least twice rose in both March and April 2026 compared to 2025.
Rising visit frequency suggests that increased traffic is not being driven by one-time responses to pricing pressure. Instead, higher fuel prices appear to be prompting members to consistently shift a greater share of their fuel spend into the wholesale ecosystem.
And more frequent fill-ups increase the likelihood that gas trips are paired with in-club shopping, suggesting that habits formed in response to pricing dynamics at the pump may ultimately drive increases in visit frequency and in-store spend.
In the wholesale club space, core value perception is sustaining steady visit growth, while elevated fuel prices are amplifying that advantage by driving incremental traffic and frequent visits to gas stations.
In this context, wholesale fuel is transforming club-member behavior and has the potential to drive deeper, long-term engagement with the retailers as a whole.
Will these trends continue in the months ahead? Check back in with The Anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
