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Carter’s Inc., owner of the OshKosh B’gosh and Carter’s baby and children’s clothing brands, is a major player in the nation’s $28 billion children's clothing industry. As of the end of 2023, the company boasted nearly 800 physical stores throughout the U.S. And after closing hundreds of stores in 2020, the brand is back to betting big on brick-and-mortar – with plans to open some 250 new U.S. locations by 2027.
How is Carter's faring in 2024? We took a closer look to find out.
Discretionary spending cutbacks and the rise of online shopping have weighed on apparel retailers in recent years. But some clothing chains – including Carter’s – are bucking the trend. Between January and September 2024, monthly visits to Carter’s stores generally outpaced the wider apparel industry, with some months posting double-digit growth.
March and August 2024 saw respective YoY visit increases of 16.0% and 14.4%, likely driven by pre-Easter and back-to-school shopping. (March and August 2024 each also had one more Saturday than March or August 2023 – a busy day for clothing stores.) And Carter’s finished out Q3 2024 with a 4.3% YoY visit increase, even as the broader apparel category saw just a minor 0.8% uptick.
Indeed, examining weekly foot traffic to Carter's highlights the seasonality of the company’s visitation patterns. Visits are typically lower during the colder winter months but pick up in anticipation of Easter and spring break – likely encouraged by spring sales held by the brand.
Carter’s real spike, however, comes during the back-to-school season, when parents head to the store to pick up new clothing for the school year – and when Carter's holds major back-to-school sales. During the week of August 5th, foot traffic surged to 29.5% above the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average. And with the holiday season fast approaching – including major retail milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday – the children's retailer appears poised to enjoy continued success.
Unsurprisingly, Carter's attracts family segments to its stores, and over-indexes for wealthy and suburban family markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Carter's trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Carter's captured market stood at 12.5% and 8.9%, respectively – outpacing the company’s potential market shares. This highlights Carter's’ success in attracting these high-income family segments. Meanwhile, households hailing from “Blue Collar Suburbs” were underrepresented in Carter's captured market compared to its potential one. This suggests that, as Carter’s continues to open stores, targeting blue collar suburban areas may pay off for the brand.
Carter's is managing not just to survive, but to thrive. After closing stores during the pandemic, the company is back with full force, driving visits and maximizing high-traffic periods.
Will Carter's continue to outpace the wider apparel category during the upcoming holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Recovering consumer sentiment has provided a boost to restaurants in recent months – but not all dining segments are performing equally well.
We dove into the data to check in with two casual dining steakhouse chains that were recently named America’s favorite full-service restaurants – Texas Roadhouse and Darden’s LongHorn Steakhouse. How did they perform in Q3? And what are some of the factors contributing to their success?
Since April 2024, Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse have both experienced consistently positive YoY foot traffic – outpacing the wider full-service restaurant space. The steakhouses’ strongest months were in May and June, when both chains traditionally draw big Mother’s Day and Father’s Day crowds. In August, too – prime vacation season – Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse experienced 12.5% and 9.3% YoY visit increases, respectively.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse increased 5.9% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024 – while the wider FSR space saw a 2.0% decline. And though some of this growth can be attributed to the chains’ expanding footprints, the average number of visits to each chain’s individual locations also rose YoY (3.0% for Texas Roadhouse and 2.6% for LongHorn Steakhouse).
What is the secret to these steakhouses’ success? One factor that appears to be driving growth for both restaurants is their relative affordability – especially on weekday afternoons. The cost of beef has continued to climb in recent months – and though the two chains have been forced to raise prices, they have remained committed to providing high-quality meals that don’t break the bank.
One way they’ve done so is through weekday specials that allow hungry customers to indulge as they go about their routines. Texas Roadhouse’s Early Dine Menu offers diners a variety of entrees for $8.99 to $11.99 – as long as they snag them before the dinner time rush. LongHorn Steakhouse, for its part, offers a lunchtime special on Mondays through Saturdays from 11:00 AM to 3:00 PM, including an $8.99 sandwich combo.
And foot traffic data suggests that these offerings may be helping to drive traffic to the two chains. In Q3 2024 (July to September), both Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse saw significantly higher weekday YoY visit growth during the afternoons – 9.7% and 8.0% respectively, compared to 6.8% and 4.3% after 6:00 PM. The accelerating return-to-office push may also be contributing to the two chains’ YoY visit growth, as commuters seek out affordable places to have lunch with colleagues.
Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse are both major national chains – with locations spread across the continental U.S. But a look at the geographic distribution of visits to the two steakhouse giants shows that each of them has a somewhat different regional focus. Though Georgia – where LongHorn Steakhouse was founded – is the brand’s second-largest market in terms of restaurant count, the Peach State garnered the highest share of visits to the chain in Q3 2024 (13.3%). Next in line was Florida, with 12.6% of visits. For Louisiana-based Texas Roadhouse, on the other hand, Texas was at the center of it all – with Florida coming in a not-so-close second.
Both chains, however, share some major markets – including Ohio (about six percent of visits to each chain) and Pennsylvania (about five percent of visits to each chain) – showing that many regional markets have plenty of room for high-quality, affordable steakhouses.
And a look at the demographic profiles of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse’s trade areas shows that like other successful chains, both brands appeal to a wide range of audience segments. The eateries’ captured markets boast higher-than-average shares of very different suburban segments – from wealthy and upper-middle-class suburban families to suburban boomers and residents of blue collar suburbs.
Full-service restaurants still face significant hurdles in 2024 – from rising costs to discretionary spending cutbacks. The 2024 consumer prioritizes value and convenience, making it difficult for traditional sit-down eateries to compete. But the continued success of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse proves that even in today’s difficult environment, FSR chains that succeed in providing affordable, high quality offerings can thrive.
Follow Placer.ai for more data-driven restaurant insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
It was an amazing summer for malls, with August proving an especially strong month across all three mall categories – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls. Between huge blockbuster summer releases, rising consumer confidence, and favorable weather, malls drew bigger crowds than they did last year. The week of August 12th saw YoY visit boosts of 5.6% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air centers, and 2.8% for outlet malls. (Outlet malls saw a more impressive YoY boost of 5.4% during the week of August 5th).
As the summer wound down and families settled into back-to-school routines, mall traffic leveled off – with weekly YoY visits ranging from -2.9% to 2.2% in September. But September’s relative quiet won’t last long. Mall traffic is expected to ramp up again in October as early holiday promotions begin to draw crowds, as both retailers and consumers gear up for this year’s shorter holiday shopping season — just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
September’s relative quiet notwithstanding, the first Monday of the month – Labor Day – is always a busy one for retailers, and this year was no different. Eager crowds converged on malls during the holiday to take advantage of special sales and enjoy a day of retail therapy.
Compared to the average year-to-date Monday, indoor malls saw a 61.5% increase in foot traffic on Labor Day, while open-air shopping centers saw a 34.1% rise. But it was outlet malls that really hit it out of the park with a remarkable 110.7% boost. Outlet malls often lead during holiday weekends, as shoppers take advantage of their time off for an extended excursion.
What do malls’ 2024 performance thus far tell us about what they can expect this holiday season?
If the rest of the year is any indication, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers are poised for a robust holiday season, having experienced YoY visit growth during every quarter of the year so far. And while outlet mall visits have largely remained aligned with 2023 levels, they are traditionally strong performers during the holidays – so a solid season is still expected for them as well.
Indeed, in past years, outlet malls have proven to be major holiday shopping destinations. Comparing weekly visits to malls in 2022 and 2023 to each year’s weekly visit average shows significant surges in November and December, with outlet malls seeing the most pronounced spikes.
During the week before Christmas in 2023, for example, outlet malls saw visits soar 79.3%, compared to 72.8% for indoor malls and 47.8% for open-air shopping centers. And on Black Friday outlet malls were the clear winners – with a 59.3% visit spike compared to 36.9% for indoor malls and just 18.2% for open-air centers.
This year is expected to follow suit, with all three mall categories likely to see heavy traffic during the peak holiday weeks—and outlet malls expected to shine especially bright as shoppers go the extra mile to seek out the best deals.
The holiday season not only boosts mall traffic but also shifts consumer behavior. Data from the past two years shows that malls’ average dwell times tend to increase during the all-important final quarter. In both 2022 and 2023, indoor and outlet malls saw average Q4 visit durations rise by about a minute compared to the rest of the year. Though a one-minute increase might appear minor, even a small shift in the overall average is significant given the millions of visits that take place during this period.
This trend highlights a shift in consumer behavior during the holidays, as visitors spend more time strolling through malls to snag special deals and seek out ideal gifts for loved ones. Interestingly, open-air shopping centers, which also saw smaller holiday visit peaks, did not show the same shift in dwell time – suggesting that visitor interaction with these centers during the holidays is more in line with that observed throughout the rest of the year.
As October unfolds, and malls begin to fill with holiday scents, music, decor, and promotions, the sector appears well-positioned for a strong holiday season. And this optimism is even further bolstered by predictions of increased consumer spending in the months ahead.
Will malls meet these high expectations during the upcoming season? Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Albertsons Companies is one of the largest grocery holding companies in the U.S., operating over a dozen regional grocery banners and serving millions of shoppers across the country.
With such a broad presence, the brand caters to a highly diverse customer base – but some overall trends can be observed on a nationwide scale. We took a closer look at the overall visitation patterns the brand experienced in Q3 2024 and dove into the demographics of some of its largest markets.
Year over year (YoY), Q3 2024 visits to Albertsons’ banners dropped 1.4% compared to the equivalent period of 2023, possibly reflecting the ongoing financial strain consumers face amid rising grocery prices. Despite this, visits to the company’s chains were significantly higher than pre-pandemic, with Q3 2024 visits up by 10.8% compared to 2019.
Analyzing quarterly visits to Albertsons’ banners relative to a Q1 2019 baseline further highlights the chain’s firm long-term positioning. After dropping during the pandemic, visits increased steadily through Q4 2022 – and have held steady since, despite the challenges facing traditional grocery stores over the past two years. This indicates that even in the face of the growing competition posed by online and value grocers, Albertsons has succeeded in holding onto gains and maintaining its standing within the sector.
While major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas are known for driving grocery visits, other key dates also spark significant foot traffic across Albertsons’ banners. For instance, during the week of July 1, 2024, visits to the company’s portfolio spiked by 14.1% compared to the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average, as customers flocked to stores for July 4th weekend supplies.
Mother’s Day also drove significant foot traffic, with visits during the week of May 6, 2024 rising 10.8% above the YTD average. So with Halloween, Turkey Wednesday, and Christmas just around the corner, Albertsons appears poised to enjoy a busy holiday season.
Albertsons’ extensive reach means that it attracts a broad spectrum of consumers, but overall, the company tends to over-index for wealthier and suburban markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Albertsons' trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A business’ potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area weighted according to the size of its population. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
During the first eight months of 2024, for example, the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Albertsons’ captured market stood at 13.7%, higher than the company’s potential market share of 10.7%. This suggests that from within the overall trade areas served by Albertsons, the chain is especially successful at attracting this affluent demographic.
On the flip side, consumer groups like “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” were underrepresented in Albertsons’ captured market compared to its potential one. This signals potential growth opportunities for Albertsons, as they could expand their appeal to younger, city-based segments.
Albertsons continues to offer something for everyone, enjoying visit boosts offered by special calendar days and growing its foot traffic relative to pre-pandemic.
For the latest data-driven grocery insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
It’s been quite a year for coffee and beverage chains. Heading into the year, we thought the category would see strong visitation trends due to store expansion, return-to-work, menu innovation, migration, and new approaches to promotional strategies. By and large, that has played out, with mid-single-digit visitation growth on a year-over-year basis (excluding January, which was negatively impacted by inclement weather across much of the country, and April, which was impacted by a calendar shift that resulted in four weekends this year versus five in the year-ago period).
Of course, the category has been much more nuanced. Category-leader Starbucks has seen visits moderate, which played a part in one of the more notable leadership changes in the restaurant industry history. However, as we’ve discussed over the past several years, the shift to drive-thru focused coffee and beverage chains has accounted for much of the growth. Below, we’ve presented visits per location for eight of the leading coffee and beverage chains. Drive-thru chains like Dutch Bros., Scooter’s Coffee, 7 Brew Coffee, and Biggby Coffee all remain well above their pre-pandemic visit per location trends, even as they continue to aggressively expand unit openings. On the other hand, traditional players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Tim Hortons, and Caribou Coffee have all seen visit per location declines the past several years.
The success of these emergent competitors will likely result in further changes across Starbucks and other legacy coffee chains. New Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has already made it clear that, going forward, Starbucks stores will have “a clear distinction between “to-go” and “for-here” service”, and we suspect other chains will follow suit.
For fashion-focused consumers, there’s never been more choices available to shop. While luxury brands and retailers are still viewed as the trend setters, there are many brands in the mid-tier luxury market gaining traction. At a time when perceived value is paramount to shopper decision-making, brands that provide a great experience and on-trend styles that won’t break a budget are winning visits.
Product knowledge, recommendations and styling tips can all be accessed in the digital and social world, which gives smaller brands a fighting chance at connecting with shoppers who may not have stores located near them. Those brands whose social presence also coincides with a physical shopping experience, they’re able to build a cult-like following.
Accessories is a market that’s even further fragmented when it comes to the number of consumer choices, specifically in areas like handbags. Brands that have found their niche in the mid-tier market, like Clare V. and Stoney Clover Lane, have been able to hedge against the headwinds facing most discretionary brands. Although each brand has a handful of locations in comparison to accessory behemoths, their unique selection, brand storytelling and ability to assimilate to local environments have helped them to garner quite the following.
In comparing both brands to other apparel and accessories sectors, they have outperformed the other areas handily throughout 2024. Certainly fashion is very cyclical; one day, a brand is hot, and within a few weeks the craze might be over. However, both of these brands have been around since before the pandemic and continued to climb.
Looking further into Stoney Clover Lane, the brand is known for its colorful nylon pouches, purses and luggage that consumers can customize with a broad assortment of patches. The brand has also had licensing partnerships with brands such as American Girl and Disney.
Its physical retail presence combines experiences and an expansive assortment where consumers can customize their bags in store with patches and also attend local events. The brand has the highest percentage of weekend visits compared to the competitive set, and it’s clear that it’s a destination retailer for visitors.
Stoney Clover Lane’s Nashville outpost, located in the popular 12 South neighborhood, offers the product customization as well as a performance stage to infuse some of the local culture into the store. Looking at the visitor journey for this location, there is a high level of cross visitation to hotels and restaurants, indicating that this store may serve as a destination for out-of-town travelers who want to shop the location. Placer’s Trade Area feature corroborates this, as there is a high concentration of visits from other Southern cities including Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas and Miami.
Clare V. blends the iconic styles of Los Angeles and Paris into an accessories brand that feels inherently cool. Its retail locations feel like an art museum blended with your best friend’s closet and each store location incorporates the local feel of the neighborhood it inhabits, including iconic locations like the Brentwood Country Mart in Los Angeles.
Clare V.’s Chicago shop draws a more local crowd, with a high level of cross-vistation to and from home as well as transportation services. Other neighborhood shops, restaurants and venues like Wrigley Field also have high levels of cross-visitation for visitors to Clare V.. By entrenching itself into the local look and feel of the neighborhoods it occupies, this national brand still feels like a well kept secret for those passing by. In comparing the trade area of the Chicago location in 2024 and 2023, the brand has been able to expand its reach further in Western Chicago Suburbs this year.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
