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Summer is a time when many consumers are on the go – and vacationers moving between activities look to quick-service restaurants (QSR) and fast-casual chains to fill up and beat the heat.
We checked in with McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Wingstop, and Shake Shack to see how they are performing heading into the summer, and examined location analytics for McDonald’s latest concept – CosMc’s – to uncover emerging visitation trends for the new chain.
Popular wing and burger destinations Wingstop and Shake Shack are thriving this summer, as both chains double down on expansion plans. Shake Shack is on track to add dozens of new locations to its 300+ domestic shacks in 2024, and Wingstop’s hundreds of newly added locations bring its U.S. restaurant count to nearly 2000 venues.
These aggressive expansion strategies are playing a significant role in the chains’ respective visit growth. In June 2024, Wingstop’s visits were up 34.2% YoY, while Shake Shack’s were up 28.1%.
As the chains expand their footprints, both are taking steps to increase store efficiency and improve service. Wingstop recently adopted a new in-house transaction software, while Shack Shack continues to streamline the kiosk ordering experience.
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The experience at many eateries continues to change – as do the prices diners see on their menus. During the first months of 2024, inflation drove price increases across the QSR space. And as consumers took note of the higher prices, “the summer of value wars” got underway – with a long list of chains, including fast-food giants McDonald’s and Wendy’s, introducing low-cost meals and menus to reel in inflation-wary diners.
Despite price hikes felt by consumers, in Q2 2024, McDonald’s visits grew by 0.4% YoY and Wendy’s grew by 1.4%. And the late-June launch of McDonald’s and Wendy’s new limited-time $5 bundles – which are already making their impact felt on the ground – may drive further foot traffic growth for the two chains throughout the summer.
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While many fast-food diners are looking for value this summer, they’re also proving eager to try new culinary experiences. McDonald’s spin-off restaurant CosMc’s landed in late 2023, with throngs of eager diners lining up for a taste of the unique concept. Since the first location opened in Bolingbrook, IL, several new CosMc’s have emerged to heavy fanfare, including one in Watauga, TX and another in Dallas.
And although CosMc’s is still in its infancy, location analytics shows that the concept already drives traffic from more affluent consumers than the traditional McDonald’s chain.
In June 2024, for example, the median household income (HHI) in the captured market of the Bolingbrook, IL CosMc’s was $97.0K – significantly higher than that of McDonald’s in the Chicago metro area ($75.5K) or of McDonald’s nationwide ($65K).
A similar trend could be observed in the Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington CBSA – where the captured markets of local CosMc’s featured significantly higher median HHIs than those of McDonald’s.
As a beverage-led concept, CosMc’s may drive more traffic from higher-income consumers than a traditional McDonald’s – where simple soft drinks typically come as an inexpensive meal add-on. And as a result, the chain may help McDonald’s bring a new consumer cohort into the fold.
Summer 2024 is undoubtedly shaping up to be the “Summer of Value” and perhaps the “Summer of Fast Food” as well. Will favorable trends continue in the months ahead?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
The fast-casual space has been having a moment – with rising QSR prices leading many diners to embrace an upgraded experience. So with Q2 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two fast-casual restaurant chains that have been doing particularly well: Chipotle and sweetgreen. How did their Q2 performance compare to that of the wider fast-casual segment? And what is it, exactly, that they are doing right?
We dove into the data to find out.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chipotle reported a 14.1% YoY increase in total revenue, and a 7.0% increase in comparable restaurant sales. And the chain isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. In Q2 2024, Chipotle saw YoY chain-wide foot traffic growth of 16.9%. And while some of this increase was undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion – Chipotle added some 247 U.S. restaurants over the past year – the average number of visits to each of Chipotle’s restaurants also increased by an impressive 9.5%. By way of comparison, fast-casual restaurants experienced average quarterly YoY visit growth of just 4.2%, and visit-per-location growth of 2.9%.
One factor that appears to be contributing to Chipotle’s remarkable visit growth is its repeat customer base – which is growing more loyal with every passing year. Between Q2 2019 and Q2 2024, the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least twice a month increased from 22.8% to 29.6%, while the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least three times a month grew from 7.9% to 12.1%.
This rise in loyalty has taken place against the backdrop of Chipotle’s growing loyalty program – Chipotle Rewards – which launched in Q1 2019 and today boasts more than 40 million members. The program, which lets members earn points for every dollar spent, offers diners access to personalized deals and a range of special promotions – like free delivery on National Burrito Day. (Before you ask, foot traffic data shows that National Burrito Day, which fell on Thursday, April 4th, 2024 wasn’t just a day for ordering online: It was Chipotle’s busiest Thursday of the year so far, with visits up 19.7% compared to a regular Thursday). This April, Chipotle also partnered with Tekken 8 to offer diners in-game currency in exchange for orders – with special perks for Rewards members.
Another eatery that has been performing remarkably well in 2024 is sweetgreen – the fast-casual restaurant known for its healthy, fresh food. During Q2 2024, visits to sweetgreen were up a remarkable 19.9% YoY, a reflection of the chain’s growing footprint. But foot traffic data shows that there is more than enough demand to sustain sweetgreen’s accelerated expansion – over the analyzed period, the average number of visits to each sweetgreen location also increased by 5.9%.
A look at the hourly distribution of visits to sweetgreen shows that though the chain has made inroads into the dinner daypart, lunchtime remains its prime time to shine – especially on weekdays.
During the first half of 2024, 24.9% of weekday visits to sweetgreen took place between noon and 2:00 PM – compared to just 21.7% for the wider fast-casual category. But while sweetgreen, popular among the in-office crowd, drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on weekdays, the fast-casual segment as a whole drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on the weekends. Indeed, on Saturdays and Sundays, the share of lunchtime sweetgreen visitors dropped to 22.7%, while the share of fast-casual lunchtime visitors increased to 22.2%.
Still, suppertime is also a popular daypart for the salad chain on weekdays – with 20.0% of Monday - Friday visits taking place between 6:00 and 8:00 PM. As sweetgreen continues to lean into steaks and other dinner fare, it will be interesting to see if the restaurant begins to capture even more evening traffic.
Chipotle’s and sweetgreen’s strong quarter positions them well for further growth as the year wears on. Will Chipotle’s loyalty continue to increase? And will sweetgreen double down on dinner?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
Millennials everywhere, rejoice, because a beloved brand is back, for the next generation. Limited Too, an apparel staple for girls growing up in the 1990’s and 2000’s, has found its way back to the retail stage after years of dormancy. The brand began teasing its return a month ago, but last week brought the announcement that Limited Too’s relaunch will take place via a new apparel line at Kohl’s. With the Fourth of July over and Amazon Prime Day complete, the back-to-school season is officially upon us, even if it still feels like summer. In Kohl’s press release on Friday, the Limited Too introduction is a part of its larger back-to-school efforts, and it appears to be aimed at expanding apparel offerings for girls. And, with Kohl’s recent and upcoming additions like Sephora, Babies”R”Us, and now Limited Too, the target is clearly to woo and excite the Millennial shopper.
The relaunch of Limited Too includes fashion for girls size 7-16, the same Tween demographic that the brand originally captured. Mall-based Limited Too shut its doors in 2008, and the majority of stores were converted into rival retailer, Justice, who shuttered all of its stores in 2020. The brand revival is likely positioned by Kohl’s to appeal to parents who grew up with an affinity for the brand who can now purchase for their children.
With the relaunch, how well situated is Kohl’s to attract this ideal “Limited Too Loyalist”? We took a look at a sampling of former Justice stores prior to closing, from 2018 to January 2020, and compared the audience profile of Justice visitors to Kohl’s visitors using Spatial.ai PersonaLive, both during the same time period as well as in 2024.
Our data highlights that both retailers actually have a similar audience profile of visitors, and that Kohl’s has continued to grow its percentage of Upper Suburban Diverse Families and Wealthy Suburban Families to more closely align with the former Justice demographics. Since the pandemic and through its new partnerships and planned additions, Kohl’s has been able to capture wealthier suburban families, and as Millennials continue to migrate out of urban centers, the retailer may have set itself up well to welcome these shoppers.
The tween apparel market today is highly fragmented, as is true with most areas of discretionary retail, with shoppers having access to countless brands and channels to choose from. Mass merchants, fast fashion, and athleisure brands are all vying for the attention of tweens, who are in turn influencing the retail decisions of their parents. A few months ago, we wrote about Brandy Melville, a somewhat controversial retailer that is still hugely popular with tweens. The retailer has the cool and elusive styling that young shoppers crave, and continues to be a strong traffic performer so far in 2024 (below). We’ve also written about the renaissance of Abercrombie & Fitch, another 2000’s brand with a strong connection to Millennials that has been able to recapture visitors’ attention, and still operates the Abercrombie Kids brand aimed at the same size range as the newly launched Limited Too.
Kohl’s new bet for the back-to-school season hangs on appealing to nostalgic Millennial parents, a group that quickly is becoming a target for many retailer strategies. We wrote last week about the rise of younger visitors to warehouse clubs, and the importance of younger shoppers to growing the member base. In a competitive and value-oriented retail environment, appealing to this group and gaining their loyalty in visits is critical to long-term success. It will be interesting to see if the Millennial love for Limited Too still remains, even after all these years.
Another year, another acquisition for casual-dining restaurant leader Darden Restaurants. Following up last year’s acquisition of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, Darden plans to acquire Chuy's for $605M (representing 10.3x Chuy’s trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of $59, or 8.2x adjusting for run-rate G&A costs that can be eliminated by adding Chuy’s to the Darden portfolio). Chuy’s is among the leading players in the Mexican casual-dining space in terms of revenue ($451M in revenue during 2023, adjusting for the extra week in the reporting calendar), average revenue per unit ($4.5M), and restaurant-level EBITDA (20%).
The acquisition of Chuy’s makes sense to us on a number of levels. First, and most obviously, Chuy’s fills a gap in the Darden portfolio. The company already owns the top player among casual-dining Italian chains (Olive Garden) and the number-two player in casual-dining steakhouses in addition to its other casual-dining (Cheddar’s, Yard House, Bahama Breeze) and fine-dining (Ruth’s Chris, The Capital Grille, Eddie V's, Seasons 52) concepts. By adding a casual-dining Mexican concept to its portfolio, we believe there will be an opportunity to attract incremental visitors. Below, we’ve presented cross visitation for Darden’s casual-dining brands and Chuy’s in 2023, and we see minimal overlap (although the cross-visit data is admittedly impacted by chain size and geography). According to our data, only 4%-5% of visitors to Darden’s existing restaurants also visited a Chuy’s location in 2023 (with the exception of Cheddar’s, which saw a 12.9% cross-visitation percentage).
Second, despite Chuy’s being the leading player in the Mexican casual dining space, it’s still a relatively fragmented category that is ripe for consolidation. Below, we show the share of visitation data for Chuy’s compared to almost 20 other full-service Mexican restaurant chains from 2017-2023. Despite Chuy’s growth, its share of visits relative to the rest of the category has remained relatively healthy in the 12%-15% range. Backed by Darden’s purchasing, advertising, and real estate scale advantages, we see a meaningful opportunity to consolidate share of visits going forward, including visit per location improvement.
Chuy’s has been one of the leaders in the Mexican casual-dining chains in terms of visitation growth this year, outpacing monthly visits for the category by 5% on average (below). While integration will take time, applying guest experience, menu innovation, pricing, and marketing best practices from Darden should help to maintain this leadership.
At 101 company-owned restaurants today, Chuy’s is comparable to several other brands in the Darden portfolio (including Yard House at 88 units and Ruth’s Chris at 79). The chain is well established in Texas (44 company-owned units) but has a relatively small presence in other states across the Southeast and Midwest (below).
As Darden and Chuy’s management pointed out in a conference call to discuss the transaction, there are significant opportunities in both existing and new markets. Placer’s Site Selection tool (which identifies the characteristics of Chuy’s top locations–including trade area populations, demographic fit, cannibalization risk, and competition density–and finds markets/sites with similar characteristics) sees the best fits for expansion in several West, Midwest, and Northeast markets.
The first half of 2024 is proving to be more heavily visited for all types of shopping centers. June in particular is stronger than it was last year. After some January doldrums, where all shopping traffic was lower than the prior year due to weather, February began to pick up and March was particularly strong comparatively for outlet malls compared to last year. April saw a general downtick for more discretionary shopping, but May and June are looking strong so far.
The top 5 outlet malls by traffic during the last week of June were Arundel Mills, Ontario Mills, Sawgrass Mills, Legends Outlets Kansas City, and The Outlets at Orange. Among indoor malls, shoppers flocked to Mall of America, Roosevelt Field, Westfield Valley Fair, Del Amo Fashion Center, and Westfield Southcenter. Weather is always a consideration in the summer months, but as shopping centers have become increasingly sophisticated about strategically placed shade or places to take a break, it can be quite refreshing to visit an open-air lifestyle center. Tops in the nation for traffic include Ala Moana Center, Pier Park, Easton Town Center, Irvine Spectrum Center, and Victoria Gardens. As for high street retail corridors, no one can match the Big Apple. Three of the top five high streets were here, including Times Square and 42nd St at #1, SoHo at #3, and 5th Ave at #4. In second place was Michigan Ave in Chicago and in fifth place was Beverly Hills.
Against the backdrop of what remains a challenging time for full-service restaurants (FSRs), we dove into the data to check in with three of America’s leading FSR chains – First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s. How did they fare in Q2 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
First Watch has emerged as a rising star in recent years, rapidly expanding its footprint while at the same time taking pains to preserve the feel of a small, local eatery. The restaurant is nimble on its feet – growing its audience through a strategy centered on continual menu innovation and special seasonal offerings.
In the past year alone, First Watch added dozens of new locations to its fleet. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s aggressive growth strategy is meeting robust demand. In Q2 2024, YoY visits to First Watch grew by 16.0%, far outperforming FSR and diner & breakfast chain averages. And perhaps more importantly, the average number of visits to each individual First Watch restaurant rose 5.8% over the same period.
Texas Roadhouse is another chain that has been crushing it in 2024 – and not just on Father’s Day. Over the past year, the popular steakhouse opened some 30 new U.S. locations, and plans to continue expanding this year.
And foot traffic data shows that Texas Roadhouse’s high-quality, affordable offerings are resonating with consumers. Despite inflation-driven price hikes, YoY visits to the chain have continued to grow. And though some of this increase is due to the restaurant’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has also been on the rise: Between January and June 2024, Texas Roadhouse experienced near-consistent YoY visit and visit-per-location growth. Only in January and in April did visits per location falter, likely due to January’s inclement weather and an April Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, too, foot traffic to Texas Roadhouse increased 6.2% in Q2 2024 – significantly outpacing averages for both steakhouses (2.6%) and full-service restaurants (1.2%).
Like many full-service restaurants, Dine Brands’ Applebee’s has faced its share of headwinds in recent years. Over the past 12 months, Applebee’s shuttered at least 30 locations, contributing to a drop in the chain’s overall foot traffic. But analyzing changes in the average number of visits to each Applebee’s restaurant shows that the closures may actually be helping to put Applebee’s back on a firmer footing.
In Q2 2023, visits to Applebee’s nationwide declined 3.7% YoY, while the average number of visits per location dropped 2.7%. Since then, the chain’s YoY visit gap has narrowed – while the average number of visits per location has begun to increase. And in Q2 2024, Applebee’s closed its overall YoY visit gap and grew its visits per location by 2.3%. Though the chain has yet to return to positive unit growth, the rightsizing of its fleet appears to be bolstering Applebee’s remaining stores – positioning it for long-term success.
Full-service restaurants have had a tough time in recent years, and concerns that consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on continue to weigh on the industry. Still, foot traffic data suggests that consumers are once again visiting restaurants – fueling expansion for First Watch and Texas Roadhouse, and helping shore up Applebee’s long-term prospects.
What does the rest of 2024 have in store for restaurant chains?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should:
1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.
2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.
3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.
4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.
5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.
6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.
2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase – instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.
For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office.
National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.
With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024.
Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.
This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.
For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.
The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.
Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.
At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.
Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance.
New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.
The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum.
Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.
To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.
For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.
