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Columbus, Ohio is among the Midwest’s fastest-growing metro areas. Like downtown business districts across the country, its urban core is seeing a return to the office. What do inbound commuter traffic patterns reveal about this shift – and how can local stakeholders, from retailers to commercial real estate investors, capitalize on the opportunities created by this growing influx?
Growing metro areas depend on vibrant downtown anchors for employment and economic activity. In Columbus, OH, the downtown area has long served as a key destination for commuters as the city’s population and labor force have grown. Favorable business incentives, and the presence of major employers such as Nationwide Insurance, Huntington Bancshares, and American Electric Power contribute to Downtown Columbus’s rising commuter population.
Analysis of the regions with the highest shares of commuters to Downtown Columbus shows that both nearby urban neighborhoods and surrounding suburbs contribute significantly to the city’s downtown workforce.
The map below reveals that over the past 12 months, the densely-populated 43201 zip code drove one of the highest shares of downtown commuters. This urban corridor includes the rejuvenated Weinland Park neighborhood and parts of the University District and trendy Short North. Many of these commuters are likely students or recent graduates entering the workforce – drawn downtown by internships, early-career roles, and professional opportunities.
At the same time, the suburbs also play a defining role in Downtown Columbus’s workforce composition. The 43123 zip code – centered around Grove City – and 43026 – anchored by Hilliard – also had relatively large shares of Downtown Columbus commuters. This reflects a broader trend of workers balancing suburban lifestyles with city-based employment opportunities.
While Downtown Columbus’s workforce reflects a mix of suburban and urban commuters, the composition within its commercial corridors is even more nuanced – shaped by distinct demographic and psychographic characteristics.
Among the analyzed corridors, the Arena District stood out for having the highest median household income (HHI) and the largest share of the “Young Professionals” segment among commuters in 2025, suggesting a workforce anchored in early- to mid-career white-collar roles. This profile aligns with the district’s mix of corporate offices, and sports and entertainment–adjacent employers that may attract younger, upwardly mobile workers.
The Discovery District followed closely in terms of median income, but its psychographic mix skewed differently. The area had one of the highest shares of the “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment, alongside the largest concentration of the “City Hopefuls” segment, among the downtown corridors analyzed. Anchored by institutions such as Columbus State Community College, major healthcare employers, research organizations, and cultural assets like the Columbus Metropolitan Library and the Columbus Museum of Art, the district appears to draw a diverse, but upper-income mix of commuters tied to public service, education, and nonprofit work.
The Uptown District stood apart with a median commuter HHI below that of the Columbus, OH DMA, and elevated shares of “City Hopefuls” and “Young Professionals” compared to the region. This profile likely reflects the district’s concentration of government offices and white-collar employers in law and finance, alongside the service-sector workforce that supports the area’s high daily activity – together pulling a wide spectrum of income levels into the corridor each day.
With the right strategy, the diversity among commuters – who are also consumers of restaurants, retailers, and other service-oriented industries – creates opportunities for businesses to engage their target audiences where they spend meaningful daytime hours.
A downtown reflects not only a metro’s economic strength but also the fabric of its cultures and communities. In Columbus, the downtown serves as both a hub of commercial activity and a crossroads for commuters from diverse backgrounds. This diversity presents businesses with opportunities to carve out a target audience and civic leaders with a responsibility to ensure that Downtown Columbus continues to serve the needs of all who power it.
For more regional analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between July and October 2025, Chipotle’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth was driven almost entirely by expansion. Overall chain-wide visits rose each month, while same-store visits remained negative, generally hovering between -1% and -2%.
This pattern aligns closely with Chipotle’s recent earnings results. In Q2 2025, the company reported a 4% decline in comparable restaurant sales driven by a nearly 5% drop in transactions, even as average check size increased modestly. Q3 showed a slight improvement in same-store sales, but that gain was driven by higher checks rather than traffic, prompting Chipotle to trim its same-store sales outlook to a low single-digit decline. Throughout this period, digital sales remained a significant share of revenue, and new restaurant openings continued to support overall growth.
More recent visit data, however, suggests the dynamic may be shifting. In November, same-store visits turned slightly positive, contributing to a stronger increase in total chain-wide traffic, and December data shows that improvement continued to build. While expansion remains a key driver, this emerging pattern suggests existing locations may be starting to regain momentum.
Some of Chipotle’s late-year momentum appears to be driven by a growing share of short visits (defined as those lasting under ten minutes), which accounted for 42.2% of total chain traffic in 2025 – up from 41.2% in 2024. These quicker trips have consistently outperformed longer visits on a YoY basis, making their increasing share an important contributor to overall visit growth.
Importantly, the rise in short visits does not appear to be coming at the expense of longer ones. From July through October 2025, average per-location visits lasting under ten minutes remained essentially flat even as longer visits continued to lag; by December, however, both short and longer visits were growing on a per-location basis. This pattern indicates that the shift toward convenience is not cannibalizing traditional visit occasions, but may instead be lifting overall engagement with the brand.
Chipotle still benefits from expansion, but the more important story may be what’s happening inside existing restaurants: Same-store visits are stabilizing while quick trips gain share. And with the December launch of an all-new high-protein menu, Chipotle is signaling that it isn’t standing still – it’s continuing to refine its offerings to stay relevant as customer expectations and visit behaviors change.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
McDonald’s ended 2025 with clear visit momentum, reversing earlier softness and posting steady gains in the back half of the year. Same-store visits followed a similar trajectory, indicating that growth was driven by stronger underlying demand rather than unit expansion. This late-year rebound positions McDonald’s with solid visit momentum heading into 2026, suggesting improving consumer engagement as the year closed.
Some of the visit growth is likely due to the chain's popular Q4 LTOs – but diving deeper into the visit frequency data suggests that McDonald’s long-term investment in its loyalty program is also playing a part. The company's launch of MyMcDonald’s Rewards in 2021 seems to have succeeded in shifting traffic toward higher-frequency, incremental visits rather than relying on new customer acquisition.
Compared to pre-loyalty levels in H2 2019, a growing share of McDonald’s visits now comes from diners visiting an average of 4+ times per month, with the share of visits from consumers visiting the chain an average of 8+ times per month showing the most dramatic growth. Grouping YoY visit trends by visit frequency also shows that visits from high-frequency diners grew the most compared to H2 2024 and H2 2019. This dynamic points to a core benefit of loyalty-led growth: driving incremental visits from existing customers is typically far more efficient than acquiring new ones, especially in a mature, highly penetrated category like quick service restaurants.
McDonald’s executives have been explicit that loyalty is designed to increase frequency, not just enrollment. The continued growth of the program through 2025 – including deeper integration with value offers and digital ordering – suggests McDonald’s is still finding room to extract incremental visits from an already loyal base.
For other restaurant chains, McDonald’s experience points to the value of using loyalty as a lever for incremental growth, particularly once a customer has already been acquired. While many QSR brands continue to drive expansion by entering new markets or opening additional locations, McDonald’s data illustrates how meaningful gains can also come from increasing visit frequency among existing customers. Even without McDonald’s scale, the underlying strategy is broadly applicable: converting first-time or occasional visitors into higher-frequency customers can serve as a complementary – and often more efficient – path to growth alongside physical expansion.
Will these lessons shape the QSR space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
In 2024, Dollar Tree capitalized on the liquidation of the 99 Cents Only chain to execute a strategic "land grab" in the notoriously tight US retail market. By acquiring designation rights for 170 leases across priority markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, the retailer aimed to bypass zoning hurdles and accelerate growth.
AI-powered location analytics indicates the selection process was highly disciplined: Looking at over 85 California stores that were converted from 99 Cents Only to Dollar Tree reveals that Dollar Tree cherry-picked high-performing sites that were generating 6.0% more foot traffic than the 99 Cents Only chain average in 2023. This suggests the acquisition was a calculated move to secure proven, high-quality real estate.
However, 2025 performance data reveals that capitalizing on this opportunity comes with distinct operational costs. Total visits to the converted stores have dropped 38.8% compared to their 2023 baselines. While some of this decline is structural – Dollar Tree operates a lower-frequency "treasure hunt" model compared to the high-frequency grocery model of the previous tenant – a significant portion is self-inflicted through network overlap.
A staggering 36% of the new sites are located less than a mile from an existing Dollar Tree, which inevitably dilutes local traffic through cannibalization. This serves as a critical lesson for retailers considering bulk acquisitions: purchasing a portfolio "en masse" often prevents perfect network optimization, forcing the acquirer to manage the friction where new footprints compete with the old.
Still, despite this cannibalization and the drop in raw volume, the transition offers a potential "healthy correction" for the business. The previous tenant collapsed under the weight of "rising levels of shrink" and low-margin grocery sales. By shifting the model, Dollar Tree is effectively filtering out non-paying visitors and low-value transactions, trading chaotic volume for a more controlled, margin-focused operation. The discrepancy between the sharp drop in total visits (-38.8%) and the more moderate dip in visits per square foot (-25.0%) suggests Dollar Tree is already rightsizing these operations, leaving some "ghost space" inactive rather than over-investing in labor to manage the entire cavernous floor.
And this excess square footage is only a liability if it remains empty; turning it into an asset requires leveraging the fundamental change in who is now shopping these aisles. The shift in shopper demographics – where "Wealthy Suburban Families" have replaced the "Young Urban Singles" and "Melting Pot Families" of the previous tenant – is crucial for Dollar Tree's future. This new audience, which is less price-sensitive, provides the ideal environment for Dollar Tree to deploy its "Multi-Price" strategy.
While CFO Jeff Davis has cited "start-up costs" regarding these conversions, the long-term opportunity is clear: if Dollar Tree can utilize the extra square footage to showcase this higher-margin assortment, these locations could evolve from overlapping burdens into profitable flagships that capture a share of wallet the traditional small-box fleet never could.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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It’s mid-January, and you promised yourself this would be the year you finally join a gym and get in shape.
But let’s be honest – choosing a gym is about more than fitness goals alone. You’ll still need to judge the equipment, locker rooms, and showers for yourself (we’re not here to do your dirty work) but there are other, less obvious factors that can determine which gym feels like the right fit – and that’s where we come in.
Trying to dodge the morning rush? Hoping to make new friends? Curious where other singles work out? Letting AI-powered location analytics do some of the heavy lifting, we analyzed major fitness chains to uncover the patterns that could help you find your ideal gym in 2026.
Few things derail motivation faster than showing up ready to work out – only to find every treadmill and weight machine taken. To understand which gyms are most likely to offer breathing room during the busiest parts of the day, we analyzed hourly visit patterns across the nation’s largest fitness chains.
The analysis shows clear differences in how morning traffic is distributed. For early risers, LA Fitness recorded the lowest share of daily visits between 5:00 AM and 8:00 AM in 2025, at just 8.9%. 24 Hour Fitness and EōS Fitness also kept morning traffic below the 10% mark, suggesting these chains may be better options for members looking to avoid crowded early workouts.
If after-work workouts are more your style – and minimizing crowds is the priority – the data points to a few clear standouts.
Among the analyzed gyms, Club Pilates recorded the smallest share of visits between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM at 16.5%, followed by Orangetheory (17.3%) and Burn Boot Camp (18.7%). That lighter early-evening traffic likely reflects the structured nature of class-based formats, which can help limit overcrowding even during peak hours.
Looking specifically at traditional gyms, EōS Fitness, Life Time, and Vasa Fitness saw the lowest share of early-evening visits – making them potential options for those hoping to squeeze in a workout while avoiding the after-work rush.
If getting in shape and finding love are both on the agenda this year, there may be a way to double up. Using AI-powered captured market data, we analyzed major gym chains to understand where members are most likely to be single – which may mean a higher chance of meeting someone special.
The analysis shows that Genesis Health Clubs had the highest combined share of one-person households and non-family households – i.e. people living alone or with roommates – in its captured market, at 36.6%. Crunch Fitness followed closely at 35.8%, with Planet Fitness just behind at 35.2%. These household segmentation patterns suggest that these gyms may offer more opportunities to meet other singles while getting in a workout.
If you’re looking for love, or simply to make new friends, age demographics may be something to consider when choosing a gym.
Our analysis of major fitness chains shows that the potential markets of Fitness Connection, Vasa Fitness, and In-Shape Family Fitness – i.e. the areas from which each chain draws its visitors – skewed younger in 2025, with large shares of visitors under 30.
By contrast, gyms such as The Edge Fitness Club, Retro Fitness, and Life Time tended to attract older audiences, with large shares of visitors 45 and older. For members looking to work out alongside peers closer to their own age, these demographic patterns could help narrow the field.
Age is just a number, right? So if you’re looking to make a real connection at the gym this year, you might look for some common areas of interest with other members. Our analysis highlights which gyms are most likely to attract visitors with your shared passions.
For dog lovers hoping to meet a fellow fitness enthusiast who’s just as excited about the dog park as leg day, Burn Boot Camp stands out. The chain over-indexed most strongly for the “Dog Lovers” segment, based on Spatial.ai: Proximity and AI-powered captured market data.
Prefer bonding over a good book? Genesis Health Clubs led the pack for the “Bookish” segment, suggesting a higher likelihood of members who enjoy reading as much as a solid workout. Coffee aficionados may find their people at 24 Hour Fitness, which showed the strongest over-indexing for the “Coffee Connoisseur” segment.
For those with travel on the brain, Workout Anytime over-indexed for the “Wanderlust” segment – pointing to a member base more likely to dream about their next destination. And if your ideal post-workout plan includes a movie or live show, 24 Hour Fitness and Gold’s Gym emerged as standouts, over-indexing for the “Film Lovers” and “Live & Local Music” segments, respectively.
Ultimately, choosing the right gym goes beyond equipment, pricing, or proximity. Visit patterns, demographics, and shared interests all shape the experience – influencing when you’ll work out, who you’ll see, and how the gym fits into your broader lifestyle. While no dataset can guarantee a perfect match, these patterns offer a data-backed starting point for finding a gym that aligns with how you want to train, socialize, and show up in 2026.
Want more data-driven insights for the real world? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
*This article excludes data from Washington State due to local regulations
Brick-and-mortar retail ended 2025 on a high note, with offline retailers posting a 2.4% increase in traffic in Q4 2025 relative to Q4 2024. This growth underscores the sector’s continued relevance even amid ongoing e-commerce growth and reinforces that retail growth is not a zero-sum dynamic, but one in which physical and digital channels increasingly coexist and complement one another.
The traffic gains during the holiday season also highlights the particular appeal of physical retail during the holiday season, when demand for in-person shopping experiences is particularly high. And as retailers refine store formats, right-size footprints, and better integrate physical locations into omnichannel strategies, brick-and-mortar retail is well positioned to remain a critical growth and engagement channel heading into 2026.
Foot traffic to e-commerce distribution centers remained consistently positive YoY throughout 2025, underscoring the strength of the logistics segment and signaling durable demand for logistics space rather than short-term fluctuations. This pattern aligns with the broader trajectory of e-commerce in the U.S., where online retail sales are projected to continue expanding, and reflects a broader structural shift in how goods move through the economy, with fulfillment infrastructure playing an increasingly central role.
This consistency is driven by long-term forces shaping retail and supply chains, including omnichannel fulfillment, faster delivery expectations, and inventory decentralization. As retailers rely more heavily on regional distribution nodes to support ship-from-store, curbside pickup, and next-day delivery, logistics facilities have become essential infrastructure rather than optional back-end operations. Even as growth moderated slightly later in the year, the persistence of positive YoY traffic points to sustained operational intensity and long-term relevance.
Year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic to U.S. manufacturing facilities points to volatility rather than sustained growth, reflecting a sector that is actively managing uncertainty. Visits declined during much of the year, suggesting restrained hiring as manufacturers appear to be operating lean – adjusting labor and on-site activity quickly in response to demand changes. Productivity gains and automation are likely also playing a role, allowing facilities to maintain output with less consistent physical presence. As a result, the foot traffic volatility may be reflecting operational flexibility rather than simple expansion or contraction.
Against this backdrop, December stands out with a clear uptick in manufacturing visits, signaling increased end-of-year activity. This rise likely reflects a mix of year-end production runs, inventory adjustments, maintenance work, and preparation for early-year demand. The December traffic increase reinforces that U.S. manufacturing – still one of the largest and most economically significant sectors globally – is adapting, not retreating, maintaining operational relevance even as it recalibrates for efficiency, automation, and selective growth.
For more data-driven retail & CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should:
1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.
2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.
3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.
4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.
5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.
6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.
2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase – instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.
For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office.
National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.
With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024.
Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.
This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.
For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.
The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.
Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.
At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.
Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance.
New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.
The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum.
Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.
To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.
For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
