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From Michigan Avenue to Main Street, retail corridors have long served as a barometer of urban vitality – and their post-pandemic trajectory has become one of the most closely watched storylines in retail real estate. We dove into the data to see how these districts are faring in 2026, and what AI-powered location analytics reveal about when, and why, people are showing up.
After several years of gradual improvement, the post-pandemic retail corridor recovery stalled in early 2026. Visits remained 12.6% below 2019 levels in Q1 and 12.5% below in Q2, reversing some of the gains made during 2025, when the Q2 gap had narrowed to just 9.5%. The slowdown coincided with a broader cooling in consumer demand, with shoppers growing more selective and trimming discretionary purchases.
So what's behind the widening recovery gap, and where are the bright spots?
Comparing Q2 2026 visits with Q2 2019 by daypart shows that the largest remaining recovery deficit is concentrated during weekday mornings and afternoons, with Monday through Friday visits between 8 AM and 4 PM still running 20% to 30% below pre-pandemic levels. That pattern closely mirrors office attendance trends, which remained roughly 30% below pre-pandemic levels this spring. With fewer commuters flowing through downtowns, the coffee runs, lunch breaks, and midday errands that once sustained corridor traffic have yet to fully return.
The pattern, however, is markedly different on weekends. Visit gaps on Saturday and Sunday mornings were significantly smaller and narrowed throughout the day before disappearing entirely by evening. Friday visits between 8 PM and 12 AM exceeded Q2 2019 levels by 2.0%, while Saturday evening visits came in 0.7% above the pre-pandemic benchmark.
In other words, while remote work continues to reshape weekday routines and consumers scale back daytime shopping, retail corridors remain compelling destinations for entertainment, socializing, and dining. The trend aligns with broader consumer spending patterns showing that even budget-conscious households continue to prioritize experiences over goods. It also reflects what's happening on the ground in downtowns nationwide, where restaurants are driving retail leasing activity and cities are increasingly investing in programming that attracts visitors after hours.
Year-over-year data also shows that even though the recovery has stalled, evenings continue to gain momentum. Although overall retail corridor visits fell 3.3% in Q2 2026, nighttime visitation increased across the week. Weekend mornings also proved relatively resilient, while midday shopping hours (12 PM to 4 PM) posted the steepest declines.
At the same time, average dwell time rose from 118.0 minutes in Q2 2025 to 123.0 minutes in Q2 2026. So while fewer people may be visiting retail corridors overall, those who do visit appear to be staying longer than they did last year – a sign that corridors are increasingly serving as destinations in their own right.
Retail corridors may still be waiting on the office worker, but they are increasingly winning the off-the-clock hours. As daytime shopping softens, evenings have become the corridors' engine of growth – especially on Fridays and Saturdays – powered by diners, barhoppers, and experience-seekers who keep showing up even as they tighten their belts elsewhere. For retailers, restaurants, property owners, and civic stakeholders, the evening and weekend windows look like the clearest growth opportunities of 2026.
Will nighttime visitation continue gaining momentum in the second half of the year? Or will office recovery finally spark a weekday daytime comeback? Visit placer.ai/anchor to find out.
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June marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth across all three mall formats, and AI-powered audience analysis suggests these gains are coming from an increasingly diverse customer base. We dove into the foot traffic data to see what's driving mall performance heading into the second half of the year.
Visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls all remained in positive YoY territory in June 2026, with indoor mall visits up 1.2%, open-air shopping center visits up 5.1%, and outlet mall visits up 1.0% compared to June 2025.
June's performance caps a strong first half of the year. Aside from a March dip, likely driven in part by calendar shifts and by the initial gas price shock, every month of 2026 has seen visit growth across all three formats – though open-air shopping centers continue to set the pace. The format has posted the strongest YoY visit growth every month this year and has hovered above 5.0% growth in both May and June, highlighting the enduring appeal of outdoor, convenience-driven retail as the weather warms up.
Analyzing malls' captured market audience makes the outlook for malls even more compelling heading into H2 2026. Much of the recent retail narrative has centered on a bifurcated consumer, with spending growth concentrated among higher-income households while more value-conscious consumers pull back. Mall audience data, however, suggests a different dynamic.
Across all three mall formats, the median household income (HHI) of the captured market declined modestly between June 2025 and June 2026. Combined with rising visit volumes, this suggests that malls are broadening their appeal and attracting a wider range of consumers, including more value-conscious shoppers – suggesting that malls are expanding their customer base rather than relying more heavily on affluent shoppers.The category's combination of retail, dining, entertainment, and one-stop convenience may be helping malls resonate with a broader audience in an environment where consumers remain selective about discretionary spending.
With all three formats posting YoY visit growth and audiences broadening, malls enter the back half of 2026 with real momentum. As retailers and mall operators plan for the critical back-to-school and holiday seasons, the challenge will be converting this wider, more diverse audience into loyal, repeat visitors.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Consumers are entering the back half of 2026 under real pressure. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index registered 49.5 in June, the second-lowest reading in records going back to the 1970s and nearly 20% below where it sat a year earlier. According to Deloitte, roughly four in 10 Americans now exhibit deal-driven, cost-conscious habits, and close to seven in 10 retail executives view value-seeking as a structural change rather than a temporary one.
So when Amazon's Prime event ran June 23rd to 26th, alongside overlapping promotions from Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Kohl's, the week became more than a battle for retail traffic. It became a barometer. Who shows up when the deals land, when they show up, and where they steer their trips offers a real-time read on how a pressured, deliberate consumer is actually behaving. We analyzed foot traffic across the four major chains to find out.
Measured against each retailer's year-to-date day-of-week average, the four major retailers analyzed all saw visits climb during Prime Week. Best Buy and Kohl's led the pack on opening day, with visits running 18.1% and 18.4% above their respective baselines on June 23. Target wasn't far behind at 16.3%, while Walmart posted a steadier 4.7% increase. And all four chains continued seeing visit gains throughout the analyzed period.
A lift across all four chains, not just Amazon's direct competitors in one category, suggests a consumer who is responsive and cross-shopping. When promotions appear, the value-seeker turns out, and they spread those trips across whichever retailers are running deals.
Isolating the event from seasonality sharpens the picture. Comparing daily visits to the prior five weeks' day-of-week average controls for longer-term trends, which matters this year because Prime Day shifted to late June, much closer to Memorial Day and Father's Day than usual and against a higher recent traffic baseline. Even on that tougher benchmark, Best Buy stood out, with visits up 12.3% on June 23 and holding double digits through Thursday. Target saw a meaningful early-week lift, while Walmart sat just below its recent baseline and Kohl's slipped to -3.9% by Friday.
Best Buy's strength against recent weeks carries the most useful read on the consumer. Electronics are big-ticket and discretionary, the kind of spending a pressured shopper might be expected to defer. But the event-driven lift suggests that consumers have not stopped making sizable purchases – they have just made them event-dependent.
But stacking 2026 against the comparable 2025 Prime Week (July 8th to 11th) adds another layer to the story. Target was the standout performer here, with visits up 10.3% year-over-year (YoY) on opening day and gains every single day of the event. Kohl's also outpaced last year through most of the week, while Walmart held modestly positive ground throughout.
Best Buy tells the most complex story. Even as it posted the strongest event-driven lift relative to recent weeks, its visits ran 2% to 5% below last year's Prime Week – a reminder that a strong showing against a recent baseline doesn't always translate to year-over-year growth. These YoY declines suggest that while compelling promotions can still draw shoppers into stores, they have not fully offset softer demand for discretionary electronics.
Analyzing offline traffic to major retailers during Prime Day 2026 suggests that, although sentiment may be near record lows and value-seeking may now be a fixed habit, the appetite to spend is still there – although it has become more deliberate.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Bed Bath & Beyond returned to physical retail in August 2025, when the first store to carry the name since the chain's 2023 liquidation opened in Brentwood, Tennessee. The format signaled how much the strategy had changed. At roughly 15,000 square feet, in a former Kirkland's, the location is a fraction of the 25,000-to-50,000-square-foot stores the brand operated before bankruptcy, reflecting a deliberate move toward smaller, neighborhood-format stores.
The format shift is just one element of a broader restructuring. The name now belongs to Beyond Inc. – since renamed Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. – which is reviving the legacy brand through two distinct acquisitions. The company is acquiring Kirkland's, the home-decor chain, and converting select stores into small-format Bed Bath & Beyond Home locations, and has also agreed to acquire The Container Store and co-brand its stores as "The Container Store / Bed Bath & Beyond."
But in a category that increasingly rewards discounters and sharply differentiated retailers, is there still room for a brand like Bed Bath & Beyond, and in what form?
It is easy to forget how dominant Bed Bath & Beyond once was. In 2019, already past its heyday, it still captured the single largest share of visits to home furnishing retailers in the country, acting as the broad, generalist default for the category.
A lot has changed since. Visits to brick-and-mortar home furnishing retailers fell roughly 27% from 2019 to 2025, and within that smaller pie the leaderboard reshuffled around Bed Bath & Beyond's absence. HomeGoods now sits at the front, reflecting where the category's momentum has gone – toward off-price and sharply differentiated retailers. At the same time, no single full-price, national retailer moved into the position Bed Bath & Beyond vacated, the broad home brand that shoppers across very different incomes and life stages defaulted to.
That open role is the opening a revived Bed Bath & Beyond is built around. The brand is betting that what failed was the format – a massive store carrying an exhaustive, full-price assortment behind a coupon, which is a format that off-price now beats on price and that specialists beat on focus. But the recognition itself, a name a wide range of shoppers still associate with outfitting a home, has remained strong, and the comeback may work if it claims the role without rebuilding the format. That is what the unusual structure is designed to do.
Share of Total Home Furnishing Visits by Chain — the 20 Largest Plus All Others — 2019 vs. 2025
Circle area is proportional to each year's total visits, which fell about 27% from 2019 to 2025. Slices show each chain's share of all home furnishing visits; the 20 largest chains are shown individually and the remainder is grouped as "Other." Bed Bath & Beyond liquidated all its stores in 2023 (its small 2025 relaunch was too recent to register here); Christmas Tree Shops (2023) and Conn's HomePlus (2024) closed all locations and have not returned. Source: Placer.ai.
| Retailer | 2019 visit share | 2025 visit share |
|---|---|---|
| Bed Bath & Beyond | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| HomeGoods | 19.3% | 38.3% |
| IKEA | 11.5% | 11.2% |
| At Home | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| World Market | 5.3% | 7.2% |
| Ashley | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Kirkland's | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Christmas Tree Shops | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| The Container Store | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Rooms To Go Furniture Store | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Bob's Discount Furniture | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| Pottery Barn | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Crate and Barrel | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Old Time Pottery | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Conn's HomePlus | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| La-Z-Boy | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Value City Furniture | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Raymour & Flanigan Furniture Store | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Homesense | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| Living Spaces | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| RH (Restoration Hardware) | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Norwalk Furniture | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Furniture Row | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Other | 7.8% | 6.8% |
Rather than reopen its own stores, Bed Bath & Beyond is returning through two retailers it is absorbing, both of which have been losing visits year over year. The declines are not one shared problem but two different ones, and the logic of the comeback is that the Bed Bath & Beyond name addresses each.
The Container Store's difficulty is frequency, with a business organized around storage and home organization – a category shoppers turn to only in occasional project bursts, and affluent customers likely have few reasons to come back between closet overhauls and moves. Co-branding the stores as Bed Bath & Beyond is meant to widen that reason to visit, folding in the everyday kitchen, bath, and bedding categories the name is known for, and lifting trip frequency without pushing away the premium shopper the chain already has.
Meanwhile, Kirkland's is a broad home-and-decor generalist without a sharp identity, sitting in the same exposed middle that off-price and specialists have been pulling apart – its stores draw a mainstream suburban shopper but offer little specific reason to choose them. Converting them to Bed Bath & Beyond Home is meant to supply that reason, a more recognized name with broader pull than the Kirkland's banner generated on its own.
Beyond improving the assortment, Bed Bath & Beyond can also boost traffic to converted Kirkland stores and co-branded The Container Stores by bringing in an audience that each chain lacks.
The Container Store draws a narrow, premium audience organized around storage and home organization, while Kirkland's draws a broader, more middle-income suburban shopper for general home goods and decor. Analysing each chain's trade area composition as well as Bed Bath & Beyond's 2019 audience suggests that Bed Bath & Beyond can help each one reach the half of the market it currently misses: In its last pre-COVID year, Bed Bath & Beyond over-indexed both among the premium households The Container Store already draws and among the mainstream suburban families that have long anchored Kirkland's.
And for Bed Bath & Beyond, the arrangement supplies two store networks aimed at different shoppers, one more affluent, one more mainstream, reached through a single name both still recognize.
At the same time, the challenges should not be understated. A recognized name is the beginning of a value proposition rather than a substitute for one, and the proposition the brand carried into bankruptcy, an exhaustive assortment paired with a coupon, is the one that ultimately failed.
But two years after the chain closed, many consumers still think of Bed Bath & Beyond as a destination for home essentials, the kind of store associated with furnishing a first apartment, outfitting a dorm, or building a wedding registry. And familiarity has proven effective at generating first visits, as a range of revived retailers from Abercrombie to Polaroid suggests, but converting those visits into a habit is a separate question. Whether shoppers return will depend less on the name above the door than on what the reformatted stores actually offer.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
When Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy in May 2024, much of the blame landed on a single menu item: a $20 Ultimate Endless Shrimp deal that proved far too popular for its own margins. The chain shuttered roughly 130 locations, was acquired by Fortress Investment Group, and brought in a new CEO to steady the brand.
So the decision to bring Endless Shrimp back in spring 2026 – this time as a limited-run promotion – wasn't an obvious one. We dove into the data to see how the relaunch is landing, and what it would take for Red Lobster's comeback to hold.
In the weeks before the Endless Shrimp relaunch, the average number of visits to each Red Lobster location was running below year-ago levels – down by as much as 8.7% year over year (YoY) the week of April 13, and lagging the broader full-service restaurant segment.
Then came April 20. During the first full week of the Ultimate Endless Shrimp promotion, Red Lobster's per-location visits flipped sharply positive and have stayed there since, peaking at 24.3% YoY the week of April 27 and holding double-digit gains into early June – though the magnitude of the boost has gently eased over time. Notably, this outperformance came while full-service restaurant traffic remained roughly flat YoY.
The traffic surge suggests that Red Lobster's brand equity remains strong. Even after bankruptcy, store closures, and years of operational challenges, the chain was able to generate a meaningful visitation lift by bringing back one of its most recognizable promotions.
But Endless Shrimp can only do so much – and the pressures facing the chain, from elevated seafood costs to a burdensome lease portfolio, will remain even after the promotion inevitably ends. As the company continues to rightsize and improve profitability, the key question is whether its investments in menu innovation and customer experience will be enough to garner lasting customer loyalty. Will Endless Shrimp have a better ending this time around?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
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Anchored Ep 7: The Data-Driven Customer Era
Zora Sentat has spent her career at the intersection of data, marketing, and commerce. As Chief Commercial Officer at cubeiQ, she's seen how businesses are – and aren't – making the most of what they know about their customers.
In the latest episode of Anchored, Zora joined Ethan Chernofsky to discuss the state of the data landscape, where retail media is falling short, and why human expertise still matters in an increasingly automated world.
Here are 5 key takeaways from the conversation:
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As consumer sentiment hovers near historic lows and the cost of goods remains elevated, value has become a defining theme across the dining industry. Yet within the sector's diverse restaurant categories – and for individual brands – the question is no longer whether consumers are seeking value, but what value actually means. A closer look at chains across the industry suggests that, amid ongoing economic pressure, perceptions of value are evolving. For some consumers, value may be tied to affordability and promotions; for others, it may come from quality, convenience, or experience. The result is a market with multiple paths to winning consumer traffic.
After an uneven but largely resilient 2025, dining traffic in 2026 tipped into a sustained decline.
Monthly visits to the overall dining industry have trailed year-ago levels throughout 2026, with February standing as the lone exception. That month saw a 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in visits, driven in part by comparisons to the period of initial tariff announcements in early 2025. But broader trends remained challenged, and May's 2.5% YoY decline marked the steepest monthly drop of the past twelve months as rising gas prices and weakening consumer sentiment appear to have added pressure to an industry already navigating a difficult environment.
These headwinds, though, have not landed evenly. Across the dining sector, some segments have faced more intense pressure than others, with much of the divide coming down to how consumers are perceiving value against experience.
Over the past several years, inflation and rising menu prices have gradually weakened a cost-based value proposition that has long been central to the QSR segment. More recently, elevated gas prices have added another deterrent, making a trip through the drive-thru a less compelling choice for some consumers.
Strong performance at grocery stores and superstores suggests that competition for share-of-stomach is increasingly extending beyond traditional restaurant rivals. With expanding selections of ready-to-eat and pre-prepared meals, these channels are offering consumers a combination of value, convenience, and quality that can increasingly match limited-service dining options. At the same time, ongoing pressure on household budgets appears to be driving more consumers toward lower-cost meals made at home, creating additional headwinds for the QSR segment.
Yet for many consumers, there is still a time and place for dining out, and in the face of mounting economic pressure, several dining formats have found foot traffic success. Fine dining has posted traffic growth in nearly every month of 2026, with March standing as the lone exception. That decline was likely influenced by a calendar shift, as March 2026 contained one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – a meaningful headwind for full-service restaurants given the outsized role weekends play in driving visits. The segment's sustained growth points to the resilience of higher-income consumers and the enduring appeal of premium, occasion-driven dining experiences.
Fast casual and casual dining have also proven relatively resilient. The fast casual category saw positive YoY foot traffic in every month of 2026 so far, while casual dining's performance has rebounded since the March calendar shift that likely weighed on YoY traffic. A second calendar shift in May 2026 led to an extra Saturday in the month, which likely helped the segment's overall trend. These trends suggest that both fast casual and casual dining occupy an increasingly attractive middle ground where value is defined as a combination of affordability and experience. At the same time, years of menu price hikes at QSR chains have altered the cost equation in fast casual and casual dining's favor, narrowing the price gap between fast food and more elevated dining formats. As that gap has narrowed, consumers may be placing greater emphasis on experience and quality when deciding where to dine.
The balance between price and elevated experience has made fast casual a favorite for value in the dining industry in 2026. A closer look at two of the segment's largest players, CAVA, a relatively young concept, and Chipotle, a legacy chain navigating operational challenges, shows how brands can deliver on that value proposition in different ways and win in today’s dining landscape.
Chipotle's traffic trends in 2026 have improved compared to 2025, with the brand offering a clear example of how fast casual brands can create value by pairing menu innovation with loyalty perks.
Chipotle outpaced the broader fast casual category in YoY visits nearly every week of 2026 so far. And the graph below shows that the chain's strongest traffic gains tended to coincide with major menu launches and loyalty initiatives – a key component of its ongoing "Recipe for Growth" strategy.
The return of fan-favorite Chicken al Pastor in the week of February 9, 2026 helped drive a 16.6% YoY increase in visits. Two months later, the launch of "Rewards on Repeat" – a refreshed loyalty program offering freebies upon sign-up – generated the period's largest weekly traffic gain, with visits rising 18.2% YoY. And the introduction of Honey Chicken on April 28 provided another boost, as the chain continued to rotate limited-time protein offerings and give customers reasons to return.
These performance peaks suggest that Chipotle has been particularly effective at pairing menu novelty with loyalty perks to reinforce a value proposition anchored by quality and experience.
Year-over-Year Change in Weekly Visits, Chipotle vs. Fast Casual, Jan.–Jun. 2026
Dashed lines mark key Chipotle promotional launch dates. Week-of dates shown; launches may have occurred mid-week.
If Chipotle illustrates the power of menu innovation and loyalty-driven engagement, CAVA highlights a different approach to creating value – one rooted in variety, customization, and a consistently differentiated dining experience.
CAVA's overall visits climbed well above 20% YoY in every month of 2026, a pace largely driven by aggressive unit expansion. Meanwhile, same-store visits, which measure traffic at locations open for at least twelve months, sustained positive YoY growth – evidence of genuine demand at existing restaurants alongside a rapidly growing footprint.
While Chipotle leans on limited-time offers, CAVA's growth rests on a consistent, customizable experience. A deep roster of proteins paired with a wide range of bases, dips, and toppings, gives the chain built-in variety that helps keep the concept feeling fresh. In addition, CAVA's Mediterranean-inspired menu offers flavors and combinations that are less easily replicated at home, helping the brand maintain a differentiated experiential value proposition and drive growth.
O Though Chipotle and CAVA are at different points in their evolution and have taken different paths to growth, both highlight the enduring appeal of fast casual's balance of value and quality. In a dining environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against experience, the segment's ability to deliver on both has helped make it one of the industry's strongest-performing formats.
Fast casual isn't the only dining segment benefiting from consumers' evolving perception of value. In 2026, several casual dining chains have found success by pairing accessible price points with the elevated experience of a sit-down meal.
Brands such as BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, Chili's Grill & Bar, Bonefish Grill, Cicis, and The Cheesecake Factory all posted positive YoY visit growth in multiple months this year, demonstrating that even in a challenging economic environment, diners are motivated when they feel they are getting more in return. These results are particularly notable given the impact of calendar shifts, which weighed on March 2026 comparisons – and provided a tailwind to May performance.
Unlike many fast casual chains, these brands have not relied heavily on a steady stream of limited-time offers to drive traffic. While menu innovation remains part of the playbook, promotions often serve as ticket builders or engagement tools rather than primary traffic catalysts. Instead, these successful casual dining chains have focused on creating everyday value that diners can depend on, narrowing the price gap between limited-service restaurants and full-service dining.
The result is a value equation that encompasses table service, a more relaxed dining environment, and a place to socialize or celebrate an occasion. In an environment where consumers are increasingly weighing cost against overall experience, that combination appears to be helping several casual dining chains maintain positive traffic momentum.
Although dining traffic has softened in 2026, the industry's performance suggests that consumers have not stopped spending on restaurants altogether. Instead, they have become more selective about where they dine and what they expect in return.
Across segments, the strongest performers have found different ways to deliver value. For some brands, that means menu innovation, loyalty engagement, and differentiated experiences. For others, it means dependable affordability paired with the service and atmosphere of a sit-down meal. As economic pressures continue to shape consumer behavior, the data suggests that value is no longer defined by price alone, but by the balance of cost, convenience, quality, and experience.
During the pandemic and its aftermath, Americans were on the move. Millions left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt, while boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents.
That wave of relocation has since cooled, as return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and many COVID-era hotspots have dampened the incentive to move. But even in a slower market, domestic migration remains one of the most powerful forces shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.
This report leverages AI-powered location analytics to examine the relocation patterns reshaping the United States in 2026 – where Americans are moving, the demographic and economic forces driving those decisions, and how retailers, investors, developers, and policymakers can respond to the opportunities and challenges created by these shifts.
Which major metros are attracting the most new residents? Which pandemic-era standouts have seen growth stall or reverse? And what factors best predict a large metro area's domestic migration growth potential in 2026?
The latest statewide migration data shows that the slower relocation pace observed in 2024 persisted into 2025. No state recorded net inflows or outflows exceeding 0.7% of its starting population. And while several smaller states continued to attract new residents at meaningful rates, none of the nation's six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2%.
Among those smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation with net in-migration equal to 0.7% of their populations, followed by Idaho (0.6%), Maine (0.5%), Tennessee (0.4%), and North Carolina (0.3%). For most of these states, migration accelerated relative to 2024, though Delaware's inflow rate moderated slightly and North Carolina held steady.
Despite their differences, these states tend to offer a similar mix of lifestyle amenities, relatively low congestion, and opportunities for growth. Many also benefit from business-friendly climates, favorable tax policies, or housing costs that remain attractive relative to the higher-cost markets from which they draw new residents.
At the other end of the spectrum was Vermont, which saw the nation’s largest net outflow as share of population in 2025, losing 0.4% of its population to domestic relocation. The decline deepens a reversal that first emerged in 2024, when the state swung to a net loss of 0.2%, after attracting inflows of 0.8% and 0.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vermont's reversal likely reflects a combination of factors, including return-to-office mandates and the waning appeal of remote work. Housing undersupply in the state may have also contributed, illustrating how important infrastructure investments are to sustaining migration gains over time.
Among the nation's six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents equal to 0.2% of its starting population, up from 0.1% the year before. Texas, by contrast, slowed from 0.1% net in-migration in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025, highlighting the cooling of what was once one of the country's strongest pandemic-era migration magnets.
Meanwhile, the legacy "exodus" states continue to lose residents, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Illinois and California have seen their migration deficits steadily narrow, with further improvement in 2025. Between 2022 and 2025, Illinois moved from -0.8% → -0.2% → -0.2% → -0.1%, while California moved from -0.9% → -0.4% → -0.3% → -0.2%. And though New York has held steady at -0.2% over the past two years, this marks a significant moderation from 2022, when the state experienced net outmigration equal to 1.1% of its population.
Statewide trends reveal important shifts, but a closer look at the nation's ten largest metropolitan areas suggests that broader interstate averages increasingly mask diverging local realities. Several metros are attracting residents through interstate domestic migration even when their states as a whole are experiencing little or no net migration growth.
Phoenix (+0.3%), for example, stood out as the nation's top-performing large metro in 2025, despite Arizona's absence from the list of leading migration destinations – with the majority of its inflow coming from out of state.
Dallas (+0.2%) ranked second, continuing its rebound from -0.1% in 2023 even as Texas' statewide migration gains cooled. Like Phoenix, Dallas drew a majority of its new residents from outside the state, underscoring its growing appeal as a national migration destination. Houston, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, falling from 0.1% net in-migration in 2023 to -0.1% in 2025. While it is too early to call this a sustained reversal, the divergence between the two metros may reflect Dallas's growing pull as a corporate magnet alongside rising housing costs and weather-related challenges in Houston.
Metro-level data also suggests that the pandemic-era "big-city exodus" narrative is continuing to fade. Los Angeles improved from -0.8% in 2023 to -0.3% in 2025, while New York held steady at -0.3% after improving in 2024. Even Miami (-0.6%), which ranked last among major metros despite Florida's continued statewide gains, saw its outflows moderate from 2023 levels. And while Illinois continued to post net outmigration, Chicago (0.0%) reached migration neutrality in 2025 after recording losses in both 2023 and 2024.
Despite Miami's struggles – and Florida’s relatively modest 0.2% inflow – a look beyond the top 10 large metros reveals that the Sunshine State is home to six of the nation's eight fastest-growing large metros nationwide.
Those top-performing metros, defined as CBSAs with 500K+ residents that added at least 0.8% of their population through net domestic migration over the past year, share a similar profile: lower housing costs, retiree appeal, suburban density, and an easy drive to a larger economic hub.
Much of the growth of these Florida metro areas, however, is being fueled from within Florida itself. While major out-of-state metros such as New York (6.1%) and Chicago (2.0%) remained important sources of new residents, nearly half of the net migration into Florida's top destination metros came from elsewhere in the state. In 2025, Miami (22.5%), Orlando (13.0%), Tampa (5.8%), and Naples (4.2%) together accounted for 45.5% of the net positive migration feeding these fast-growing markets.
The migration flows feeding the nation’s fastest-growing large metros suggest that affordability remains a powerful driver of domestic relocation.
In 2025, seven of the eight top destination metros analyzed above had lower typical home values than their largest feeder markets. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL, for example, had a typical home value of $313.4K in December 2024, compared with $404.9K in Orlando and $380.2K in Tampa – its two largest sources of net migration. Even North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL – the most expensive Florida metro in this group – drew its largest share of net migration from the New York metro area, where home values are substantially higher.
The lone exception was Charleston–North Charleston, SC, whose largest source of net migration was Baltimore – a market with lower typical home values than the destination. Even in Charleston, however, affordability appears to have played a role. New York, a significantly more expensive market, ranked a close second in 2025, accounting for 6.5% of net positive migration into Charleston, just behind Baltimore’s 6.8%.
While housing costs are only one factor influencing migration decisions, the data suggests that households continue to gravitate toward markets where homeownership is comparatively more attainable than in the places they leave behind.
Typical Home Values* in Top Feeder Markets to Destination Hubs, 2025
*Typical home value based on Zillow Research’s Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for Dec. 2024, immediately preceding the analyzed migration period (Jan.–Dec. 2025).
But as important as affordability is in explaining today’s domestic migration patterns, age appears to be an even stronger determinant of where people choose to relocate.
Among mid-sized and large metros (250K+ residents) experiencing significant population shifts – defined as gaining or losing at least 1.0% of their starting population through domestic migration over the past two years – households are increasingly moving toward older, more established communities.
The data reveals a clear negative relationship between migration performance and age differential – a metric calculated by subtracting the median age of the destination market from the weighted median age of its feeder markets. Negative values indicate movement toward older communities, while positive values indicate movement toward younger ones. In other words, the metros attracting the strongest migration inflows tend to be older than the markets sending them residents.
The data also shows a clear positive relationship between migration performance and retiree concentration. Metros with larger shares of residents aged 65 and older generally saw stronger migration gains over the past two years, while younger metros tended to attract fewer newcomers. This suggests that retiree-driven relocation has become an increasingly important driver of migration. At the same time, the influx of younger residents points to the broader appeal of these communities, which offer a mix of affordability, amenities, and lifestyle advantages.
Net Migration as Share of Starting Population, 2024–2025*
*Analysis includes metro areas with 250K+ residents and domestic migration gains or losses of at least 1.0% during the study period. Weighted Age Differential compares the destination market’s median age with the weighted median age of origin markets, with positive values indicating migration toward younger markets and negative values indicating migration toward older markets. Age data: Census ACS 2020–2024.
The pandemic-era urban exodus is giving way to a more nuanced migration landscape. Large urban markets are stabilizing, while growth is increasingly concentrated in smaller states, secondary metros, and intra-state corridors. Affordability remains a powerful pull, but retirees, lifestyle considerations, and local market dynamics are also playing an increasingly important role in where Americans choose to live.
To capitalize on these shifts in 2026, civic leaders, commercial real estate (CRE) investors, retailers, and developers should:
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
