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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from over 700 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Return-to-office mandates are once again the talk of the town, with companies from Amazon to AT&T set to crack down on remote work in the new year – in some cases, demanding that workers show up in person five days a week.
But how did the office recovery shape up in December 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
December is typically a quiet month for offices, with many Americans taking time off for the holidays to enjoy vacations and family gatherings. So, it may come as no surprise that office visits in December 2024 dropped to their lowest point of the year.
Compared to December 2019, office visits in December 2024 lagged by 39.2% – a bigger visit gap than that seen in either November (37.8%) or October (34.0%), as employees likely embarked on extended “workations” and enjoyed greater WFH flexibility during the holiday season. Put another way, December 2024 office foot traffic clocked in at 60.8% of pre-pandemic (December 2019) levels.
Still, offices were busier this December than last – in December 2023, the recovery compared to December 2019 stood at just 57.2%.
New York and Miami once again led the regional return to office (RTO) charge with Yo5Y visit gaps of 19.6% and 20.9%, respectively – though both cities’ Yo5Y numbers were weaker than those seen in either October or November.
Atlanta (-34.1%) and Dallas (-35.2%) also outperformed the nationwide average for Yo5Y office foot traffic. And with Dallas-based companies like AT&T and Southwest Airlines starting to enforce stricter in-office policies in the new year, the Texas hub may experience even more accelerated recovery in the coming months. (AT&T also has a strong presence in Atlanta, which may also benefit from the company’s crackdown.)
Meanwhile, San Francisco, which has long lagged in post-pandemic office recovery, finally pulled out of last place in December 2024 with a Yo5Y visit gap of 48.0%, just edging out Chicago. The impressive YoY office visit growth seen by the West Coast hub in recent months – likely fueled in part by Salesforce’s recent RTO mandate – appears to have finally left a tangible mark on the city’s Yo5Y ranking.
Year over year (YoY), visits to office buildings nationwide were up 6.4% in December 2024 – showing that despite seasonal setbacks, office visits remain overall on an upward trajectory. Atlanta (13.7%) and Boston (12.1%) led the way for YoY office recovery, followed by Washington, D.C. (10.6%) and San Francisco (10.4%).
As additional RTO mandates go into effect in the new year, the office recovery needle may move once again. Will additional companies jump on the full-time in-office bandwagon – or will hybrid work models continue to dominate?
Follow placer.ai’s data-driven office index reports to find out.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney have both emerged from bankruptcy proceedings with revitalized operational strategies. We took a closer look at the latest visit trends for the brands and uncovered how the demographics of their audiences have changed along with their real estate footprints.
David’s Bridal closed a significant number of stores in the second half of 2023 as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, leading to a year-over-year (YoY) drop in visits in the first half of 2024. But although the impact of the previous year’s rightsizing weighed on YoY visit growth, the second half of the year marked a turning point. Lapping the mid-2023 period of aggressive store closures, visits rebounded in August 2024 (3.5% visit growth YoY), and stayed close to or exceeded the previous year’s levels through the end of 2024 (6.3% visit growth YoY), signaling a stabilization in consumer traffic.
David’s Bridal's YoY visits per location numbers showcase the brand's resilience even more clearly. Visits per location were near or exceeded 2023 levels for most of 2024, and saw significant lifts in summer and fall – the most popular wedding seasons. This trend suggests that the retailer’s slimmed-down store fleet remains relevant in the bridal and occasion-attire space, particularly during critical retail moments – and highlights the chain’s ability to drive increased traffic to a smaller real estate footprint. More recent initiatives such as the October 2024 launch of a revamped loyalty program and a December 2024 partnership with delivery giant DoorDash also bode well for the brand’s growth potential in 2025.
JCPenney accelerated a years-long fleet consolidation strategy when it emerged from bankruptcy in 2020 and completed the bulk of its rightsizing campaign by the end of 2021. In 2023, the retailer announced a $1 billion, multi-year reinvestment plan to make massive improvements to operations and the customer experience.
The strategic reinvestment appears to be working: Last year, JCPenney steadily closed its YoY visit and visits per location gaps, which shrank to just -3.0% and -1.8%, respectively in Q4 ‘24 – signaling a sustained foot traffic turnaround for the brand.
Several of JCPenney’s recent initiatives likely played a part in the brand’s upward foot traffic trajectory. During fiscal Q3, the brand invested $51 million in store operations – part of the $1 billion earmarked in 2023 – and saw positive results from a Thursday Night Football promotion and a revamped loyalty program. This indicates that JCPenney may be able to sustain its foot traffic momentum with additional campaigns and continued investment in its stores – and with the chain's recently announced merger with Forever 21, 2025 is looking particularly bright.
While both chains’ foot traffic is on the rise, analysis of David’s Bridal’s and JCPenney’s trade areas reveals a key difference in the two companies’ audience strategies.
In Q4 ‘22, the median household income (HHI) in the captured markets of David’s Bridal and JCPenney was lower than in their potential markets – meaning that both chains attracted visitors from the lower-income households within their wider trade areas. But by Q4 ‘24, David’s Bridal captured market had a higher HHI than its potential market – meaning that it was now attracting the more affluent residents within its trade area. Meanwhile, the median HHI in JCPenney’s captured market continued to fall short of the median HHI in its potential market – although both its captured and potential market HHI has increased over the years.
The now elevated median HHI of David’s Bridal’s captured market suggests that the brand’s rightsizing efforts are driving traffic from a higher-income audience to its remaining locations. And given the relatively high price of wedding gowns, the chain’s recent popularity among more affluent consumers offers another indication of David’s Bridal newfound strength. JCPenney, on the other hand, has stated its commitment to maintaining accessible price points in order to best serve “America’s working families” as the chain continues to attract the lower-income shoppers within its trade area.
The successful turnaround of JCPenney and David’s Bridal – despite their appeal to very different audiences – showcases the various paths available for retail resurgences in today’s consumer landscape.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney serve as powerful examples of how strategic rightsizing and targeted investments can drive a foot traffic turnaround. Both brands have leveraged smaller, optimized real estate footprints and successful promotional activity to boost visits per location and appeal to their target audiences.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. The goal of the index is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
In December 2024, retail and dining visitation slowed slightly, with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index down 0.8% year over year (YoY). The December dip was likely due in part to an extra Saturday last year – the busiest day of the week for many retail and dining chains.
But comparing overall visits in November and December 2024 to the same months in 2023 shows that visits to the Placer 100 Index remained on par with 2023 levels (+0.0%) during the last two months of the year. So despite headwinds and a shorter shopping season (just 28 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared to 33 last year), brick-and-mortar retail and dining establishments ultimately attracted the same number of holiday season visits, all told, as they did last year.
Ever since the launch of Chili’s Big Smasher Burger promotion in late April 2024, YoY visits to Chili’s have been on the rise, buoyed by diners eager to indulge in a full-service experience at a QSR price point. And in December 2024, the chain once again topped the Placer 100 rankings, with visits to the chain up an impressive 21.0% YoY – fewer Saturdays notwithstanding.
Fitness clubs also figured prominently on December’s Placer 100 list, as did budget mainstay Aldi – underscoring the continued robust demand for no-frills, value-oriented grocery offerings. Notably, Family Dollar saw a 4.2% YoY increase in average visits per location – potentially reflecting the success of parent company Dollar Tree’s rightsizing efforts. Meanwhile, Big Lots saw a 5.2% YoY visit bump, likely fueled by strong consumer interest in its liquidation sales.
But value wasn’t the only winner of this year’s holiday season. Upscale department store Nordstrom enjoyed a substantial YoY visit uptick in November and December 2024 – with overall visits to the chain rising 6.5%. This stands in sharp contrast to the wider department stores sector, which experienced a 3.2% decline during the same period.
A look at the demographic profile of Nordstrom’s captured market shows that the chain’s success is likely due in part to its affluent – and young – customer base. In November and December 2024, the median household income of the census block groups (CBGs) from which Nordstrom drew its shoppers – weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each CBG – stood at $113.1K, significantly higher than the $81.3K median for the wider department store space. Nearly a third of Nordstrom's captured market (27.4%) was composed of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – compared to 9.5% for the sector as a whole. And unlike other department stores, which were slightly less likely than average to attract “Young Professionals,” that segment made up 9.7% of Nordstrom’s captured market, well above the nationwide baseline of 5.8%. As Gen-Z leads the charge back to malls, Nordstrom’s robust foothold among younger consumers bodes well for its future success.
Like many department stores, Nordstrom relies on the holiday season to bolster its annual bottom line – in 2024, November and December visits accounted for nearly a quarter (22.5%) of the chain’s total visits for the year. A strong performance during these critical months is a positive signal of good things to come – and with the chain being taken private by its founding family, we may see moves aimed at further solidifying Nordstrom’s position in the months ahead.
Despite fewer shopping days, the 2024 holiday shopping season proved resilient – with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index remaining on par with 2023 levels. While value chains continued to dominate the rankings, upscale retailers like Nordstrom also enjoyed significant success. What trends will the Placer 100 Index uncover in the new year?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Malls demonstrated their resilience once again in 2024, will traffic to the three shopping formats essentially on par with 2023 levels despite the ongoing consumer headwinds. Indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even saw slight increases – of 1.5% and 1.7% year-over-year (YoY), respectively – while outlet malls experienced a minimal visit decline of 0.4%.
So although YoY visits dipped at all three mall formats in December 2024 – likely due to the month having one less Saturday than December 2023 – malls appear well positioned going into 2025.
The 2024 traffic performance of each format may be correlated with the income levels of the format’s visitor base. Open-air shopping centers, which received the largest YoY visit boost, also attracted the most affluent visitors who were likely less impacted by the ongoing consumer headwinds. Meanwhile outlet malls – which saw slight YoY traffic dips – drew visitors from areas with the lowest household income.
The holidays are particularly busy for shopping centers as consumers shop Black Friday discounts, meet mall Santas, buy gifts, and hang out with family and friends. But comparing average daily visits between Black Friday (November 11th) and New Years Eve (December 31st) with average daily visits during the rest of the year (January 1st to November 28th) reveals that the holiday boost is not distributed equally across the three mall formats.
Outlet malls received the largest Holiday-driven visit boost and Indoor malls came in at a close second, with visits during the holiday season up 59.3% and 57.0%, respectively. Open-air shopping centers lagged behind the other two formats, with daily visits up just 31.4% compared to the rest of the year.
Diving deeper into the data reveals that weekdays receive the largest lift, with weekday traffic at indoor and outlet malls during the holiday season up 63.0% and 66.4%, respectively, compared to the non-holiday season daily average.
The holidays don’t just drive an increase in traffic – dwell time at malls also tends to be longer between Black Friday and New Years Eve when compared to the rest of the year. Visit length at indoor and outlet malls increased by an average of 4.7 minutes, while dwell time at open-air shopping centers grew by an average of 3.1 minutes.
Malls’ holiday success proves once again that shopping centers continue to play an important role in the wider retail landscape. How will indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls perform in 2025?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
With 2024 firmly in the rearview mirror, we look back on the year’s retail foot traffic trends and what they may signal for 2025. Read on for a closer analysis of the retail categories and states that excelled at driving growth.
Overall retail visits increased year-over-year for most months of 2024, with many of the sporadic visit gaps likely due to extraneous circumstances as opposed to any real consumer slowdown.
Last year’s largest YoY retail visit gap – in January 2024 – could be attributed to severe winter weather in large parts of the country. And the April, September, and December YoY visit dips are likely partially due to calendar shifts, with April 2024 affected by the Easter calendar shift and September and December disadvantaged by having one less Saturday than in 2023.
Still, looking at 2024 as a whole revealed that the year did outperform 2023, with overall retail visits up 0.4% – suggesting that consumer behavior remains resilient and that 2025 could mark a further turnaround if cooling inflation meets consumer expectations.
But diving deeper into the data reveals significant variation among the major retail categories. Discount & dollar stores (2.8% YoY growth) and superstores (1.7% YoY growth) came out ahead of the pack, highlighting consumers’ demand for value in the face of high prices and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile – and as might be expected in a period of financial strain – many discretionary retail categories lagged in 2024. The Furniture & Home Furnishings category in particular saw the steepest decline with negative visit trends from January to July 2024, but the category did finish strong with a 3.5% YoY increase in Q4 2024 visits – a promising sign for 2025.
Last year’s retail foot traffic gains were also unevenly distributed geographically.
While most states saw modest YoY visit growth, Maine (2.2%) and North Dakota (2.0%) topped the list in 2024. Notably, foot traffic in both states showed resilience during even the most challenging periods of the year.
In Maine, a recent increase in inbound domestic migration may have contributed to the state’s foot traffic success. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s large share of superstore and discount & dollar store traffic was likely behind its overall retail visit growth in 2024.
Analyzing 2024 retail trends revealed that consumers navigated uncertainty while showcasing resilience — a promising foundation for the new year. Will this momentum continue in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Florida emerged as a domestic relocation hotspot during the pandemic – and analyzing domestic migration trends over the past four years reveals that most newcomers to Florida have stayed in the Sunshine State. We dove into the data to find out just how big a piece of the domestic relocation pie went to Florida – and see where the newcomers came from, where they chose to settle, and which Florida destinations attracted the most affluent new residents.
Domestic migration picked up over the pandemic, as many Americans liberated from the constraints of in-person work chose to move to areas with more space, a lower cost of living, and better outdoor recreational opportunities.
The map below highlights the states that received net inbound domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024, with the percentages representing the share of inter-state positive net migration welcomed by each state during the analyzed period.
As the map shows, Florida was one of the major beneficiaries of the recent domestic migration boom. Between July 2020 and July 2024, Florida received 24.7% of positive intra-state migration in the United States. (In other words, 24.7% of inbound net migration to states with overall positive net migration went to Florida.) Texas, another oft-discussed pandemic relocation hub, came in second, receiving a significantly smaller 17.6% of the total inter-state positive net migration pie.
Most of Florida’s recent population influx dates back to the Covid era – diving deeper into the monthly data reveals that the biggest jump in migration over the past four years took place between late 2020 and early 2022. And although inbound migration slowed somewhat in 2023 and 2024, the Sunshine State’s net migrated percent of population compared to a July 2020 baseline remained steady at about 2.5% to 3.1% (depending on the season). This means that 2.5% to 3.1% of Florida’s residents have moved there over the past four years – indicating that most people who moved to Florida at the height of the pandemic have remained in the Sunshine State.
So where is Florida getting its new residents from?
Analyzing net migration to Florida by state of origin reveals that Florida received net positive migration from most of the country during the analyzed period – but the influx from some states was particularly significant.
The map below charts the share of net migration to and from Florida by state of origin or destination between July 2020 and July 2024. The purple represents states from which Florida received net positive migration – more people moved to Florida from those states than the other way around – and the percentage indicates each state's share of the total net positive migration to Florida. The yellow represents states which received net positive migration from Florida – more people moved to those states from Florida than vice versa – with the percentage showing each state's share of the total net negative migration from Florida.
As the data shows, much domestic migration to the Sunshine State came from the Mid Atlantic region – with relatively expensive New York and New Jersey standing out as the biggest feeder states – as well as from Illinois and California, two more high-cost-of-living states. Illinois and the Mid Atlantic states also tend to have relatively cold winters. Meanwhile, Florida mostly lost residents to neighboring states and to Texas, with a much smaller share of its net negative migration going to Alaska, Michigan, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
It is likely, then, that Florida’s affordability and mild winters served as significant migration draws.
People may be moving to Florida from all over the United States. But where are they moving to in the Sunshine State? Mapping domestic migration trends onto Florida’s metro areas reveals that most of the inbound domestic migration is concentrated in Central Florida. Indeed, just three Central Florida metro areas – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven – accounted for nearly half (41.5%) of the total net positive migration to Florida during the analyzed period.
Although the Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland metro areas are contiguous, the demographic profiles of new residents settling in the three CBSAs are quite different. For example, Tampa, which boasts the highest median household income (HHI) of the three metro areas ($65.1K, compared to $61.1K for Orlando and $55.1K for Lakeland), also drew the greatest share of domestic migrants from affluent areas (median HHI > $100K).
Each of the three central Florida CBSAs also attracted newcomers from different areas of the country. Tampa exhibited the most diversity, with its top 5 CBSAs of origins representing under 50% of total net migration to the metro area. Orlando, on the other hand, received almost 50% of its net domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024 from just two metro areas: New York and Miami. And for Lakeland, over 50% of the inbound net migration came from within the Sunshine State – including 31.6% from the Orlando CBSA and 9.5% from the Tampa metro area.
It is likely, then, that newcomers to Tampa are coming mostly from wealthy areas throughout the country, while Orlando draws slightly less affluent – but still relatively high-income – newcomers from dense urban areas. Meanwhile, Lakeland appears to attract local Floridians who may be looking for a more affordable living situation without moving too far away from their current communities.
Thanks to its mild winters, affordability, and lifestyle appeal, Florida emerged as a major pandemic relocation destination, and recent migration data reveals that many of those who moved in between 2020 and 2024 have stayed in the Sunshine State. In particular, the central Florida hubs of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven attracted an outsize share of new Florida residents, with each metro area showcasing unique inbound migration patterns.
What will domestic migration patterns look like in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
