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With the holiday season just around the corner, we dove into the Placer.ai Mall Index to see how these shopping mainstays performed during the fall retail lull.
Following several months of roller-coaster visit trends – as August visits surged compared to last year and September visits dipped year-over-year (YoY) – mall traffic stabilized in October: Last month’s visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls generally matched 2023 visitation trends. The closing of the YoY visit gaps may indicate that consumers are once again ready to spend following the brief September slow-down – boding well for the upcoming holiday season.
Diving into the weekly trends offers even further reasons for optimism: YoY visits over the last two full weeks of October were positive for all three mall categories, with outlet malls in particular seeing the largest YoY increases. Outlet malls’ positive performance during the second half of the month may signal a comeback for the format, which has generally lagged behind indoor malls and open-air shopping centers in recent months.
Unlike certain retail categories that enjoy Halloween-driven visit surges either on the day itself or on October 30th, malls do not appear to benefit from the spooky holiday. Analyzing daily visits reveals that October 30th visits were on par with the daily October average, while October 31st traffic actually took a hit across the three mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index.
The dip is likely due to shoppers putting off their mall trips and instead choosing superstores and specialty retailers such as party supply stores and liquor shops for their holiday prep. Stores hoping to avoid the Halloween dip may want to offer special promotions around the day – and managers can also use this information to optimize their staffing schedules on October 31st.
Diving into hourly visit distributions provides even more data for those looking to optimize store performance. On Halloween, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers received a larger share of their visits before 4:00 PM and relatively fewer visits in the evening when compared to an average Thursday in October. So while some consumers did come out to malls in the morning, by evening, many shoppers may have been too busy scrambling to complete their Halloween costume or stock up on candy for the evening. Meanwhile, the Halloween dip in visits to outlet malls appears to have been evenly spaced throughout the day, with hourly visit shares on October 31st closely matching the average Thursday visit distribution patterns.
Store managers operating in indoor malls or open-air shopping centers may use this data to optimize staffing for the afternoon and evening Halloween shifts, while those working at outlet malls may want to reconsider their manpower needs for the day as a whole. At the same time, those looking to draw in more foot traffic may try offering promotions that appeal to early birds or trick-or-treaters.
With October in the rearview mirror, the holiday season is kicking off. How will malls perform?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
As essential sectors of retail face a slowdown in traffic momentum, the need for unique offerings and competitive advantages is more pressing than ever. Grocery retailers have benefited from increased visits, which has kept consumers engaged with chains and their offerings, even if it hasn’t always translated into larger basket sizes. In an increasingly competitive grocery market, retailers will need to consistently prove to consumers that they’re worth the extra visit.
Specialty grocers are better positioned to meet this challenge as value-focused grocery options become more constrained. Many local and regional chains have the added benefit of nimble operating models, enabling them to quickly adapt to consumer preferences. Beyond that, these specialty chains have deeply embedded themselves in the communities they serve. Looking ahead to 2025 and the growing recognition of physical stores’ importance, the strong relationships between specialty grocery retailers and consumers could help them thrive in this evolving environment.
One specialty chain that stands out in this context is Stew Leonard’s. Beloved in the Tri-State area—an area known for outstanding grocery chains—Stew Leonard’s combines product expertise with a unique in-store experience, famously described by The New York Times as “the Disneyland of Dairy Stores.” Imagine a grocery store with animatronics and birthday parties! In an era when we need more joy in retail, Stew Leonard’s sets the gold standard. With just eight locations, each with a large footprint and a strong connection to its local community, Stew Leonard’s offers a compelling package. A robust private label program, specialty departments, and high service levels make this chain stand out without relying on promotions or low prices.
According to Placer’s foot traffic estimates, Stew Leonard’s has effectively hedged against the slowdown in growth seen by other full-price grocery chains this year. Year-to-date, the chain has experienced a 3% year-over-year increase, compared to flat growth for full-price chains. Examining trends over time, Stew Leonard’s has shown consistent, sustainable growth throughout 2022 and 2023, with an acceleration in visits in the latter half of this year, driven by the opening of its new store in Clifton, NJ.
One reason for Stew Leonard’s success is the elasticity of its consumer base. Operating in the Tri-State area allows the chain to tap into wealthier consumer segments compared to national chains. According to PersonaLive audience segmentation, Stew Leonard’s has more than double the concentration of Ultra Wealthy Families compared to full-price grocery chains, along with a high percentage of Wealthy Suburban Families. The chain also attracts a notable share of Young Urban Singles, likely drawn by its strong offerings in prepared and specialty foods.
Stew Leonard’s Danbury, CT location offers insight into the brand’s appeal to shoppers. According to Placer’s trade area metrics, 35% of visitors to this store travel from more than 10 miles away, and nearly 10% come from over 30 miles, with clusters of visits from across the Northeastern corridor.
Store-level metrics also reveal strong loyalty among Stew Leonard’s visitors. Year-to-date in 2024, over a quarter of visitors to the Danbury location visited at least four times, and 35% visited three or more times. At the same time, there is a substantial share of visitors who appear to make special, less frequent trips to the store. These visitors show high cross-visitation rates with other grocers, such as Costco and ShopRite, as well as with Stew Leonard’s own operated Wine and Spirits locations.
Stew Leonard’s exemplifies a retailer that resonates with local consumers while offering an experience that attracts visitors from further away. Its combination of unique experiences, services, and products creates a shopping experience that goes well beyond traditional retail. Even as visits slow down across the sector, specialty grocers that remain hyper-focused on their unique offerings are likely to continue drawing in customers.
In late 2022, we suggested that fitness clubs in a post-pandemic environment were better positioned to withstand a slower macroeconomic climate than in the past. This was due to lower monthly fee business models, increased workout frequency among consumers, a shift toward younger members, and reduced seasonality. With Planet Fitness reporting its Q3 2024 results this week and ten months of visitation data available for 2024, we decided to revisit that thesis—especially in light of the company’s decision to raise the monthly price of its Classic Card from $10 to $15 in late June.
In the third quarter, Planet Fitness posted systemwide same-club sales growth of 4.3% (4.5% growth in franchisee clubs and 3.4% growth in corporate-owned clubs). Approximately 50% of the Q3 2024 comp increase was driven by net member growth, with the remaining balance attributed to rate increases. Our data indicates that the decline in visitors has been relatively modest since the Classic Card price hike. Management corroborated this, noting they “expected a slight decline in membership in Q3 2024, which was more than offset by the rate improvement on the Classic Card and a higher Black Card mix.”
During the quarter, 63.1% of Planet Fitness members were Black Card members (paying $25 per month), up from 62.1% in the same period last year. Management noted that new members are increasingly opting for the higher-priced Black Card membership, likely due to the added value of extra amenities, including access to all club locations, unlimited guest privileges, unlimited use of massage chairs and tanning beds, and discounts on cooler drinks, compared to the base membership.
Planet Fitness’ visit-per-location trends further support our thesis that fitness clubs are more resilient to macroeconomic pressures than they were pre-pandemic. In 2019, Planet Fitness averaged nearly 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter, dropping to 68,000 in the fourth quarter—a 25% decrease. This year, Planet Fitness again began with 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter and is projected to close the year with 76,000-78,000 visits per location. This would represent a year-end decrease in the mid-teens, indicating a more stable membership base and lower churn rates than in past years.
Fitness clubs still face challenges in today’s consumer environment. For instance, Equinox-owned Blink Fitness filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, citing pandemic-related deferred rent payments and other factors in its filing. (On a related note, Planet Fitness reportedly made a bid for Blink Fitness this week.) Nonetheless, Planet Fitness' resilience underscores that fitness club unit economics have evolved over the past several years, potentially making them better equipped to handle diverse consumer environments.
While consumer confidence appears optimistic heading into the holidays, and businesses are feeling more assured now that the election is over, thrifting continues to benefit from tailwinds driven by last year's inflationary pressures, the shift toward sustainability, and Gen Z’s desire for unique items.
We analyzed year-over-year traffic for well-established chains like Goodwill and Salvation Army, as well as for smaller chains like Buffalo Exchange and Crossroads Trading Co. Among these, Savers Thrift Store has experienced the highest growth rate in recent months, with Goodwill also showing consistent increases compared to last year.
The thrift store footprint is quite strong nationwide, with a concentration of stores in the eastern half of the country and along the West Coast.
Thrifting is no longer just for lower-income households. In a sign of its upmarket appeal, over 1 in 10 of thrift store captured trade areas are now the "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" segment, and another 1 in 10 are from "Wealthy Suburban Families" according to PersonaLive customer segments. The chart below filters for visitors with a dwell time of at least 10 minutes, indicating that these segments aren’t merely dropping off donations—they’re sticking around to treasure hunt. The thrill of finding a hidden gem has been widely shared on social media platforms like TikTok, where one lucky shopper recently discovered a $6,000 couture wedding dress for the unbelievable price of $25 at Goodwill.
While Goodwill is undoubtedly the largest player in this field, with roughly ten times the visits of its nearest competitor, a substantial share of visits also goes to Plato’s Closet (with over 400 stores tracked by Placer), Salvation Army Stores (400+ tracked by Placer), and Savers Thrift Stores (100+ tracked by Placer). Interestingly, although Savers has just a quarter of the number of stores, its yearly visits nearly match those of Plato’s Closet and Salvation Army Stores during certain months of the year.
Plato’s Closet sees a notable spike in late July and early August, aligning with back-to-school shopping season. With its focus on teens and young adults and an emphasis on popular and fast-fashion brands, it’s no surprise that this chain resonates strongly with its youthful audience.
This past season, one of the major trends has been a love for all things '90s. Popular items include handkerchief hems, baby tees, crop tops, straight jeans, mom jeans, flared jeans (essentially anything but skinny jeans), and, of course, the essential graphic tee. Thrifters are on the hunt for that perfect vintage piece—something unique to wear to a concert or party and, most importantly, to showcase on social media.
Fashion is cyclical, and often, if you hold onto something long enough, it just might come back into style. Hoarders can rejoice, as new generations are now seeking out biker boots, pedal pushers, Fendi baguettes, and satin slip dresses. Today’s teens are also drawn to brands their parents might have worn, like surfer favorites Stussy, Roxy, and O’Neill. Miu Miu, a current favorite in the fashion world despite a slight slowdown in luxury, even sent board shorts down their runway. Miu Miu has consistently been on-trend over the past few years, from micro miniskirts to last month’s playful twist on athleisure with foot warmers and leg warmers.
Other notable ‘90s throwbacks include Hypercolor shirts—T-shirts that change color with body heat, like when a handprint is left behind. For the colder months, surf fashion is evolving into styles suited for cozy bonfire nights at the beach. "Shackets" (shirt jackets) in soft flannels and plaids are trending, with stores like Faherty and Marine Layer offering pieces reminiscent of the fashion seen in The O.C.
From a retail perspective, popular '90s and 2000s brands like Mango and True Religion are making a strong return to brick-and-mortar. Mango, a Spanish fast-fashion brand similar to Zara, first entered the U.S. in the 2000s but later withdrew in 2015. Now, it’s back with a U.S.-focused strategy, opening a flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue in New York—formerly home to iconic brands like NBC, Columbia Pictures, and Coca-Cola. Mango plans to have over 40 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2024 and 500 global stores by 2026.
In the ‘90s, pop stars like Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera made low-rise jeans with the iconic True Religion horseshoe logo a staple. Now, True Religion has returned, with Megan Thee Stallion as a spokesperson. The brand saw strong performance in spring and summer, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping in August. Although year-over-year traffic dipped slightly in September and October, we anticipate a rise in traffic with the upcoming holiday season.
Every year towards the end of October, consumers head to the shops for costumes, spooky yard decorations, candy and Halloween supplies. At the same time, many national dining chains roll out Halloween-themed limited time offers (LTOs) to lure in revelers. So what was this year’s Halloween impact on retail and dining visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Halloween may not be Black Friday, but the ghostly holiday drives significant dining and retail visit spikes of its own. Comparing daily visit patterns during the week of Halloween to previous weeks’ averages reveals Halloween’s varied impact on the different brick-and-mortar sectors.
For most retail sectors – including grocery stores, superstores, discount & dollar stores, and hobbies, gift & craft stores – holiday visits peaked on October 30th, as consumers got their Halloween supplies before the holiday. Hobbies, gift & craft stores saw the biggest visit increases, with traffic on Monday, October 28th already up 20.7% compared to the average for the previous four Mondays, as patrons sought out the perfect costume piece or yard decoration. Meanwhile, liquor stores – where visits also increased the day before Halloween – got an even bigger boost on October 31st, likely thanks to party hosts and guests grabbing last minute refreshments ahead of the night’s festivities.
Unlike in the retail space, where visits increased prior to the holiday, the Halloween-driven dining visit spike was confined to October 31st. Dining visits on Halloween were up 5.4% compared to the previous four Thursdays’ average – impressive for a category not traditionally associated with Halloween spending. This spike was likely fueled by the many Halloween-themed LTOs across the category.
Indeed, many of the major dining chains that saw double-digit visit spikes on October 31st offered Halloween-related promotions. Insomnia Cookies gave away cookies and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offered free donuts to customers who came in wearing costumes – and visits to the two chains jumped 60.4% and 45.4%, respectively, compared to the average of the previous four Thursdays. And the promise of discounts was almost as alluring as the promise of free stuff – Chipotle offered a deeply discounted entree to any Chipotle Rewards member coming in costume, leading to a 41.5% boost in Halloween foot traffic.
Full-service restaurants also got in on the Halloween action. Denny’s customers who dined on-site donning a costume received free Halloween pancakes, helping drive a 20.5% increase in Thursday visits on October 31st. IHOP, which offered a free “Scary Face Pancake” for kids 12 and under with the purchase of an adult entree, saw its visits rise 15.5% compared to its recent Thursday average. And Applebee’s “Dollar Zombie” cocktail – available throughout the month of October – may have contributed to the 14.4% Halloween visit increase from customers looking to consume the themed drink during the holiday.
Halloween prep often requires a trip to the store – so unlike dining chains, where traffic peaked on Halloween itself, most retail sectors received the largest holiday-driven boost on October 30th. Visits to Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale were up on Wednesday, October 30th compared to a recent Wednesday average – but by October 31st, foot traffic was mostly back to normal (although Walmart visits were still slightly elevated).
Meanwhile, discount & dollar leaders Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar experienced foot traffic jumps on both October 30th and October 31st – with the Halloween spikes at Dollar General and Family Dollar even surpassing the pre-Halloween boosts at those retailers. These visitation patterns indicate that consumers likely visit both superstores and dollar stores for pre-Holiday prep but are more likely to head to discount & dollar chains for last minute Halloween purchases.
While superstores and discount & dollar stores receive a significant share of Halloween-driven retail foot traffic, the biggest beneficiaries of the season appear to have been party supply stores – with Party City in the lead. Visits to the retailer began steadily increasing week-over-week in the beginning of September, with Wednesday, October 30th seeing a whopping 252.2% increase in visits compared to the average on the previous four Wednesdays.
Party City’s Halloween success indicates that, when it comes to special occasions, specialized retailers still play an important role in the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
Halloween brought consumers out to stores and restaurants, highlighting an appetite for celebrating special occasions which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season. How will the rest of Q4’s retail milestones perform?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
1. Salt Lake City: Home-Centric Growth and Sustained Consumer Strength
Salt Lake City continues to outperform thanks to a young, fast-growing population and a strong homeownership culture. Retailers in home goods, grocery, and improvement categories are seeing significantly higher YoY foot traffic than the national average.
2. Reno: A Tourism Hub Evolving Beyond Gaming
The share of "Singles & Starters" among Reno's visitor base continues to climb – and this generational diversification is transforming the city into a year-round destination for dining, shopping, and entertainment while fueling traffic gains across Reno-area shopping centers.
3. Indianapolis: Family Affordability Fuels Retail Momentum
With strong employment, affordable housing, and a favorable cost-of-living ratio, discretionary retail and family-friendly dining concepts are particularly well positioned to thrive in this growing midwestern market.
4. Raleigh: Young, High-Earning Consumers Drive Mixed-Use Expansion
Raleigh’s relatively low median age and strong labor market are fueling demand for premium dining and retail, leading to foot traffic gains for upscale mixed-use developments.
5. Tampa: Urban Revival Powers Dining and Retail Gains
In-migration of Gen Z and millennial workers, together with rising office attendance, has boosted commuter and visitor traffic across Tampa’s urban core – helping Tampa's dining concepts grow faster than the national average and underscoring Tampa’s role as a Southeastern consumer hotspot.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
