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About the Placer.ai Mall Index: The Placer.ai Mall Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Mall visits largely rebounded in March following their February drop. Traffic to indoor malls grew 1.8% year-over-year while open-air shopping centers and outlet malls saw their YoY visit gaps narrow to 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The rebound may be driven by the slight increase in consumer confidence among younger consumers (under 35 years old) and consumers from households earning over $125K a year – since affluent households are overrepresented in the trade areas of all three mall formats.
Indoor malls’ March YoY visit growth is the latest manifestation of the format’s strength. Between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, open-air shopping centers led the shopping center space as this format consistently outperformed the other two mall types on a YoY visit basis. But over the past year, indoor malls have led the pack, with YoY visit trends to indoor malls consistently stronger than visitation metrics for the other two formats.
Some of the strength of indoor malls could be attributed to a sort of “survival of the fittest.” Many indoor malls shuttered in recent years, so the malls that remain in operation – such as the top-tier malls in the Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index – may be receiving some of the traffic that may have previously gone to less successful malls. Indoor malls are likely also benefiting from a renewed demand for the indoor mall experience – which could explain the string of recent investments in class B malls – from Walmart’s purchase of the Monroeville mall to Simon’s redevelopment of the Smith Haven Mall.
March 2025 marked the five-year anniversary of the retail lockdowns. And although this past month marked an improvement in visitation trends on a YoY basis, zooming out in time reveals that the pandemic is still having a lingering impact on both the quantity and quality of mall visits across formats.
All three mall types received fewer, shorter visits in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2019, with outlet malls seeing the largest drop in both visit numbers and visit duration. Open-air shopping centers experienced the strongest recovery in terms of visit numbers – Q1 2025 traffic was just 2.0% lower than in Q1 2019 – while visit duration fell 4.4%. Indoor malls saw the strongest rebound in visit duration, with Q1 2025 visits only 2.9% shorter than pre-pandemic – but visit numbers were down 7.4%. So despite the resilience of open-air shopping centers and the recent visit gains of indoor malls, the shopping center industry still has a ways to go before visitation patterns return to pre-COVID levels across the board.
As the industry looks beyond the five-year mark, the future of malls will likely depend on adaptability. Operators who can balance digital integration, experiential offerings, and responding to shifting consumer preferences will be best positioned to thrive in a post-COVID retail environment.
While the positive March visit data offers a degree of optimism for the mall industry, it's crucial to acknowledge that the sector is still navigating the long-term effects of the pandemic, characterized by fewer and shorter visits compared to pre-2020. At the same time, the recent success of indoor malls suggests a potential shift in consumer preferences or a concentration of traffic in stronger locations, highlighting the ongoing evolution of the retail landscape. Moving forward, the resilience and future success of malls will likely hinge on their ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and integrate innovative strategies that enhance the overall shopping experience.
Consumers are as interested as ever in heath-conscious eating, and many are turning to protein-packed diets to meet their fitness and wellness goals. We took a closer look at two retailers making a name for themselves in the high-protein, health-centric food space – Wild Fork Foods and Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork Foods is a paradise for meat and seafood lovers. The chain, which boasts nearly 60 locations nationwide, is at once a grocer, specialty products purveyor, and prepared foods destination. While much of Wild Fork’s product selection is frozen-meat-centric, the chain also offers a robust array of prepared foods.
And consumers seem to be resonating with the brands’ offerings – foot traffic to Wild Fork Foods consistently outpaced overall grocery visits, with YoY visits 33.8% higher in February 2025 than in February 2024, while overall grocery visits dropped by 1.7%. While some of this visit growth can be attributed to an increase in locations, Wild Fork’s strong performance bodes well for the brand.
Clean Eatz takes a different approach with its product offerings. While the chain boasts an on-site cafe, its real strength lies in its prepared meals and meal kits, which can be ordered individually or as part of full meal plans for the week. Each plan includes detailed nutrition information, making the chain an ideal option for those looking to take their diet to the next level.
This health-centric approach seems to be resonating with visitors, with Clean Eatz foot traffic outperforming the fast-casual restaurant segment in all months analyzed. And like Wild Fork, Clean Eatz has expanded over the past year, opening 14 locations between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024.
While Wild Fork and Clean Eatz share similarities in foot traffic trends and expansion efforts, a closer look at visitor demographics reveals key differences that highlight their respective strengths.
Compared to Wild Fork, Clean Eatz receives more of its traffic during the weekday – 77.3% of Clean Eatz’ visits take place on Monday through Friday, in contrast to Wild Fork’s 62.6%. Similarly, a higher share of Clean Eatz visitors visit the chain on their way to or from work – 14.9% and 10.0%, respectively – compared to Wild Fork’s 7.8% and 4.8%.
This suggests that Clean Eatz has become a convenient meal option for busy weekdays, while Wild Fork primarily attracts shoppers making planned stock-up trips.
Examining demographic data reveals additional distinctions between Wild Fork and Clean Eatz’ customers beyond their shopping preferences. While both chains draw visitors from trade areas with relatively high median household incomes (HHI), Wild Fork’s captured market skews wealthier, with a median HHI of $106.3K, compared to $83.9K for Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork’s trade area also includes significantly more "Near-Urban Diverse Families" – middle-class households living in or near cities – while Clean Eatz thrived with suburban audiences, capturing a higher share of the "Blue Collar Suburbs" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment.
These differences highlight that there is plenty of room within the prepared foods segment for a wide range of concepts. By aligning their offerings with customer preferences – perhaps by expanding into suburban markets or focusing on premium selections – retailers can carve out their own space and thrive.
Wild Fork and Clean Eatz are making names for themselves in the prepared food and gourmet grocery spaces. By tailoring their offerings to different consumer preferences, they’ve proven that multiple concepts can thrive within the high-protein food segment.
Will the space continue to evolve? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Eatertainment concepts have grown in popularity as consumers continue to prioritize experiences. We dove into the latest location intelligence for one of the leaders in the space – Dave & Buster’s – to explore the consumer behavior and demographics behind its foot traffic growth.
Throughout the first three quarters of 2024, visits to Dave & Buster’s increased year-over-year (YoY), likely due to an emphasis on remodels aimed at improving the entertainment and dining experience, as well as the brand’s continued expansion. And though the chain experienced a moderate visit gap in Q4 2024, it finished out the year with an overall 3.0% YoY increase in visits. Visits to the chain in 2024 were also up 4.7% when compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic) – an impressive showing given the headwinds that have plagued the wider full-service restaurant space in recent years.
Although visits to Dave & Buster’s have lagged YoY most weeks in 2025 so far, this may have more to do with severe weather experienced in large parts of the country than with a sustained decrease in demand for the chain. Indeed, during the week of March 17th, 2025, visits increased YoY, highlighting the popularity of March Madness and Dave & Buster’s spring break promotions – and perhaps signaling a positive start to the chain’s busy spring season.
In 2024, Friday through Sunday accounted for a large share of Dave & Buster’s visits (62.7%), but compared to 2023, the days with the greatest increases in foot traffic were Monday (8.2%), Tuesday (8.0%), Thursday (6.8%), and Wednesday (5.3%). Meanwhile, Friday and Saturday traffic increased by only 1.8% and 1.0% respectively, and Sunday visits were flat YoY. So although the chain received a majority of its visits on weekends (Friday-Sunday), most of its YoY visit growth came from weekday visits.
This validates Dave & Buster’s promotional strategy of incentivizing weekday visits when locations can leverage available capacity.
Dave & Buster’s focus on weekday promotions has likely resonated particularly well with its core audience – consumers with median household incomes (HHIs) slightly below the nationwide baseline. For many middle-income Americans, the chance to indulge without overspending is crucial in a time of rising prices and economic uncertainty, and Dave & Buster’s has effectively met their needs with its discounted midweek food, drinks, and gameplay options.
But in addition to young singles and cost-conscious families (such as the “Family Union” segment, encompassing middle-income, middle-aged families in blue-collar occupations), the brand also appeals to several more affluent consumer segments. In 2024, Dave & Buster’s captured market featured higher-than-average shares of both the “Suburban Style” and “Flourishing Families” segments, which include different groups of affluent, middle-aged couples and families. This broad appeal across a diverse range of consumer groups positions the brand on solid footing as it continues to navigate a challenging economic environment.
Dave & Buster's has seen increased customer traffic, likely due to strategic renovations and an expanded footprint. While weekend visits remain dominant, weekday growth indicates successful promotional efforts that resonate with diverse consumer groups.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit Placer.ai.
Forget water, soda, or tea – coffee reigns supreme in the United States. A recent study reveals that coffee surpasses even water as the nation's most consumed beverage. This continued demand is fueling a robust coffee shop sector that continues to thrive despite economic headwinds.
We took a closer look at industry-wide trends to understand how the segment is performing.
The coffee segment has seen consistent visit growth over the past few years, demonstrating remarkable resilience – a trend fueled by steady consumer demand. Analyzing the baseline change in quarterly visits from Q1 2019 underscores this growth – and also reveals distinct seasonal patterns.
Visits to coffee shops plummeted during the pandemic, as consumers hunkered down at home and many independent coffee shops went out of business – but swiftly rebounded as consumers sought affordable luxuries and a sense of normalcy. Between 2021 and early 2024, coffee foot traffic continued to climb, as chains from Starbucks to Dutch Bros expanded their footprints. The visit growth followed a fairly predictable seasonal rhythm, slowing in the first quarter of the year and peaking in Q4. But though visits in Q4 2024 were slightly higher YoY, they remained relatively flat compared to Q2 and Q3 2024, possibly signaling that the industry may be reaching a plateau.
Looking at the data by region reveals that coffee shop visit growth has been widespread throughout the country, with most CBSAs experiencing growth relative to 2023.
Some areas – like parts of the Midwest and South – experienced especially pronounced growth, suggesting heightened interest in coffee chains in these regions. Coffee visit growth in the South in particular may be partially a reflection of greater market penetration following chain expansions and inflows of domestic migration over the past several years. And while some areas of the country saw YoY declines, most CBSAs saw continued growth, highlighting the consistent appeal of coffee chains across a wide range of markets.
There are hundreds of coffee shops nationwide catering to every kind of coffee drinker – from chains with 2-3 locations specializing in artisanal blends to major players like Starbucks and Dunkin'. And diving into the visit split between small, mid-sized, and large coffee chains shows that mid-sized coffee chains – many of which are drive-thru focused – are gradually claiming a greater share of the market.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visitors to mid-sized coffee chains grew from 10.8% to 17.6%. Some of this growth can be attributed to Dutch Bros’ ascendance – but other fast-growing coffee chains like BIGGBY Coffee are contributing to this growth.
Smaller coffee chains also saw their visit share increase, albeit more modestly, from 3.2% in 2019 to 4.4% in 2024. This trend suggests that, while Starbucks and Dunkin' continue to dominate, there remains plenty of room – and interest – for smaller, independent chains to thrive.
Indeed, diving into visitor behavior at small, mid-sized, and large chains highlights the distinct niches these segments effectively fill. Between 2023 and 2024, short visits (<10 minutes) increased more than longer visits at mid-sized and large chains, while large chains actually saw a drop in longer visits, likely a result of increased emphasis on drive-thru and mobile ordering.
Meanwhile small chains saw a greater YoY increase in long visits (+13.4%) than in short ones (+9.1%), suggesting that smaller coffee shops are increasingly filling the niche of a relaxed, destination-oriented experience.
These shifts highlight the different needs that coffee shops can fill within a community, with some offering speed and convenience, while others can meet the desire for a relaxed and personalized coffee experience.
The success of the overall coffee segment highlights the continued consumer demand for affordable luxuries even as economic uncertainty persists, and the benefits of a diverse market that accommodates different visitor needs.
Will the coffee segment continue to thrive into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
College students make up a small portion of the U.S. population, but they wield an outsize influence in the consumer market. Despite being notoriously budget-conscious, collegians value enjoyment and willingly splurge on experiences. And as tomorrow’s affluent consumers, today’s college students can deliver big future rewards for brands that successfully build lasting relationships with the segment.
So with spring break upon us, we dove into the data to see how today’s college crowd allocates its dining dollars. Where do they like to eat out? And how can brands best cater to their preferences?
Tight budgets notwithstanding, students are always on the hunt for delicious treats that don’t break the bank. And while overindulgence in beer and pizza traditionally led to the dreaded “freshman fifteen”, location analytics show that today’s college students are a bit more discerning. They balance cost with a desire for elevated experiences – while also prioritizing healthier options.
Against this backdrop, it may come as no surprise that fast-casual chains hit the college sweet spot between indulgence and affordability. In 2024, the share of STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in the captured market trade areas of fast-casual chains nationwide stood at 54% above the nationwide baseline – meaning that this demographic’s representation among fast-casual’s visitor base was 54% above average. Specialty drinks – think healthful smoothies, boba teas, and juices – also stood out as particularly popular among the college crowd. Meanwhile, the share of college students in the captured markets of full-service restaurants (FSR), traditional coffee spots, and quick-service chains (QSR) was significantly lower – though still on par with, or slightly above, the nationwide baseline.
Within the specialty drink and fast-casual segments, certain chains attract a particularly strong college following, including Noodles & Company – which likely draws students with its unique twist on comfort foods like mac and cheese. Playa Bowls and Kung Fu Tea are also especially popular among undergrads on the hunt for wholesome, convenient pick-me-ups.
Even within categories that typically see fewer college patrons, such as FSR and QSR, select brands maintain a strong hold on this market. Wine club Postino and KPOT Korean BBQ & Hotpot – both of which offer elevated, unique experiences that deliver plenty of bang for the buck – are popular among collegians. Several mass-market FSR and QSR chains, including Waffle House, Texas Roadhouse, The Cheesecake Factory, Chili’s Grill & Bar, Raising Cane’s, Culver’s, Papa John’s Pizza, and Taco Bell also draw significantly higher-than-average college crowds. And within the coffee space, chains like Dutch Bros, and Scooter’s Coffee that offer specialty beverages like smoothies and energy drinks pull in above-average shares of college crowds.
How do college students interact with the dining brands they love? Zooming in on college town venues that cater specifically to the student crowd can shed light on the unique eating-out behaviors of this demographic.
Nationwide, the share of college students in coffee shops’ captured markets is just over the segment’s overall share in the population (+6%). But Starbucks locations near college campuses are positively teeming with students. A remarkable 81.9% of the captured market of the Starbucks near Indiana University, for example (on S. Indiana Ave in Bloomington, IN), belonged to STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in 2024 – 5386% above the national average. Similar patterns were observed at locations near Texas A&M University and Penn State, where the segment made up 70.3% and 61.3%, respectively, of the locations’ visitor bases.
And these students tended to linger far longer than visitors to other Starbucks locations, either to study or hang out with friends – between 28.0 and 34.0 minutes on average, compared to 14.1 minutes for the chain as a whole.
Students also crave quick bites to power them through late-night study marathons and parties. Although most Taco Bells are busiest in the afternoons and early evenings, the one on S. Providence Rd. in Columbia, MO (near Mizzou) – with 68.5% of its market composed of “Collegians” – saw nearly half of visits take place after 8:00 PM last year. The same pattern held true at Taco Bell sites near the University of Florida in Gainesville and Texas A&M in College Station.
Collegian consumer activity typically peaks in August, when back-to-school shopping surges. And this holds true for college town restaurants as well. In 2024, visits to Chili’s locations serving college students – such as the Texas Ave S. location in College Station, TX, where the “Collegian” segment comprises 57.8% of its market – saw a notable visit spike in August. But in December, Chili's busiest month nationwide, things slowed down considerably at the analyzed campus-adjacent locations, as students headed back home for the holidays.
From hearty fast-casual fare to specialty drinks, late-night burritos, and lengthy coffee shop study sessions, college students blend cost-consciousness with a desire for quality and experience. And their loyalty to brands that strike this balance – while catering to their unique preferences and behaviors – can be massive, especially once they leave campus and their spending power grows.
Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven consumer insights.
Why has Old Navy introduced occasionwear? Examining the product selection available at the six brick-and-mortar apparel chains most frequently visited by Old Navy visitors (T.J. Maxx, Kohl’s, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s) can shed light on the apparel needs of Old Navy’s consumer base.
Old Navy shoppers seem to like activewear – all six of Old Navy’s biggest brick-and-mortar competitors in the apparel space carry a large selection of sportswear and athleisure. In fact, the apparel selection at DICK’s Sporting Goods – the fifth most frequently visited chain among Old Navy visitors – is limited to only athletic wear. Old Navy already holds a strong competitive position in this category with its popular activewear collection.
But some Old Navy shoppers may be visiting brick-and-mortar apparel chains in search of the perfect evening dress – five of the top six retailers competing with Old Navy for apparel visits carry evening wear. So expanding its product line to include prom dresses and similar items may help Old Navy recapture some of the traffic lost to competitors from customers in search of occasionwear.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
