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The Lollapalooza festival, held annually in Chicago's Grant Park, is one of the world's most iconic music events. We dove into the location intelligence data to explore how the festival impacts tourism to the Windy City – and understand the characteristics and preferences of the audience that flocks to the city each year.
The festival acts as a powerful magnet for tourists, particularly those from nearby regions. During Lollapalooza, the number of domestic tourists to Chicago (i.e., out-of-market visitors traveling more than 50 miles) surged by 180.7% compared to an average Thursday through Sunday – and by 43.8% compared to the already-busy summer period of June and July.
But a closer look at the data reveals that the greatest increase came from visitors living 50 to 100 miles away, with a massive 343.3% increase over the 12-month average. In contrast, the smallest increase stemmed from long-distance travelers journeying 250 miles or more, with visits up just 145.7% from the average. This strong local pull shows that Lollapalooza is a regional tourism powerhouse, driving an incredible surge in visits from a concentrated market that views the festival as a premiere, must-attend event.
This substantial influx of tourists also brought a more affluent crowd than usual. Summer – peak Chicago tourist season – attracts a slightly wealthier crowd than the rest of the year. But the median household income (HHI) of visitors’ home areas hit $89.7K during Lollapalooza, a clear jump from both the June-July average of $83.9K and the 12-month average of $82.5K.
The festival’s audience is also more diverse than its reputation might suggest. The share of “Young Professionals” in the visitor mix rose to 16.6% during Lollapalooza, up from 14.5% during the summer, while the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” climbed to 7.6% from 6.4% and the share of “Sunset Boomers” rose to 5.1% from 4.7%. The increase in these segments shows the festival’s broad appeal, attracting not just young people but also older, established, and affluent families.
In addition to being wealthier, Lollapalooza attendees had a distinctly different lifestyle profile. Compared to both the 12-month and summer averages, visitors were more likely to be married couples and to enjoy wine and good coffee. Notably, the share of visitors who worked from home increased to 18.7% during the festival, compared to a 17.0% summertime benchmark. These lifestyle markers signal a premium, high-value consumer that presents an ideal audience for local businesses and sponsors looking to create targeted on-site experiences, from specialized pop-up cafes to wine-tasting events.
Overall, these findings highlight Lollapalooza’s potent role in supercharging Chicago’s tourism sector. Beyond the simple boost in overall visitor numbers, the festival draws a more affluent and distinctive demographic than the typical summer crowd – making it a powerful economic engine for the city.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
For many Americans, Walmart functions as a grocer and essential-goods provider. Target’s competitive advantage, meanwhile, lies in higher-margin discretionary categories – stylish home goods, affordable fashion, and exclusive brand collaborations. In the face of ongoing macroeconomic pressures, both retailers are adopting elements of each other’s approaches: Walmart is seeking to elevate its image and expand discretionary offerings through a rebrand, while Target is ramping up its focus on essentials. But Q2 2025 location intelligence data reveals that the two brands’ immediate challenges remain distinctly different.
Walmart has been thriving in recent months, exceeding analyst expectations with solid sales growth driven largely by a profitable e-commerce segment. Last quarter (ending April 30th, 2025), Walmart U.S. posted comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of +4.5%, with e-commerce contributing approximately 3.5 percentage points to that growth. And in June 2025, the company built on this momentum with the debut of its “Walmart, Who Knew” campaign – part of a strategic rebranding highlighting expanded, premium product offerings alongside enhanced e-commerce capabilities – such as one-hour express delivery and an online marketplace of over half a billion items.
Against this backdrop, Walmart’s stable YoY foot traffic – hovering between +0.8% and -1.6% monthly May through July – is a powerful signal of its continued strength. The data validates the company’s omnichannel strategy, indicating an ability to grow its digital business without materially sacrificing its foundational in-store visitor base.
In contrast, Target has faced meaningful challenges, with YoY same-store visit gaps ranging from 2.2% to 9.7% since February 2025. Like Walmart, Target’s online growth has been a bright spot – last quarter, the company reported a 4.7% increase in digital comp sales, aided by more than 35% growth in same-day delivery. But this was not enough to offset a 5.7% decline in in-store comp sales. And though consumer reactions to Target’s recent policy updates do appear to have contributed to the retailer’s softening YoY performance, persistent challenges point to a more fundamental shift in consumer preferences amid discretionary cutbacks.
Both Walmart and Target are borrowing elements of each other’s playbooks. But consumer visitation data shows that while Walmart and Target can learn from each other, they service fundamentally different shopping missions.
Walmart’s vast scale and extensive grocery selection make it a prime destination for habitual, necessity-driven shopping. Between May and July 2025, about 34.0% of shoppers visited Walmart at least four times a month. Target’s 14% frequent visitor share, on the other hand, reflects its role as a more occasional destination centered on discovery-led shopping experiences – such as its successful Kate Spade collaboration, hailed by the company as the most successful design collab in a decade. While strengthening essentials plays to the current economic climate and likely contributed to the modest increase in Target’s frequent visitors over the past year, the retailer’s future success depends on sharpening – not blurring – its core strengths.
Walmart’s foot traffic stability combined with proven ecommerce growth positions it well to continue outperforming, especially as consumer caution favors essentials and convenience. Furthermore, the retailer’s rebranding and push into broader, discretionary categories may help attract higher-income consumers who are trading down.
Target, for its part, faces a more difficult strategic balancing act in the months ahead. Augmenting its offerings with compelling essentials will be critical. But as demonstrated by the strong performance of retailers like Five Below and T.J. Maxx, there still exists a healthy market for discretionary treasure hunting. Ultimately, Target’s ability to reignite growth will depend on its success in rejuvenating its competitive edge in the discretionary market – a task likely to be further complicated by anticipated tariffs.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
The office recovery is back in full swing. Major employers such as Samsung, Google, and Starbucks have tightened return-to-office (RTO) policies in recent months. And though hybrid work remains prevalent across industries, Q2 2025 saw a majority of Fortune 100 employees subject to full-time in-office mandates – up from just 5.0% in Q2 2023.
In June, accumulating RTO mandates helped shrink the post-pandemic office visit gap to 27.4% compared to the same period in 2019. And July 2025 set a new record for office attendance, with visits down just 21.8% relative to July 2019 (both Julys had 22 working days) – making it the single busiest in-office month since COVID.
Stark regional differences remain, however, between major business hubs nationwide. New York City, where many employees are subject to the stricter in-office requirements of the finance world, saw positive (+1.3%) year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) office foot traffic growth in July 2025 – a first since Placer.ai began tracking these trends. Miami, which has developed a thriving financial sector of its own, followed closely behind, effectively closing its visit gap with a 0.1% lag.
Atlanta and Dallas also made considerable headway – both markets saw visit gaps dip below 20% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, Denver – an emerging hub for tech startups and one of the most remote-friendly labor markets in the U.S. – took up the rear, while San Francisco inched up two notches in the rankings, beating out both Denver and Los Angeles.
Indeed, San Francisco appears to be in the midst of a major revival, with rising rents, improving public sentiment, and waves of new restaurant, retail, and small business openings breathing fresh life into a city once dismissed as stuck in a “doom loop”. And in July 2025, the City by the Bay once again topped the year-over-year (YoY) office recovery charts, outpacing all other analyzed hubs with remarkable 21.6% visit growth – more tangible evidence of the progress San Francisco continues to make.
If past experience is any guide, the road to office recovery will continue to be anything but linear. RTO policies remain far from uniform, and hybrid work continues to serve as a key baseline for many organizations. Still, July 2025 seems to mark a meaningful RTO tipping point, with numerous markets making substantial progress toward pre‐COVID office foot traffic levels.
Follow Placer.ai/anchor for more office visitation insights.
Same-store visit growth at TJX chains in recent months exceeded the company's official guidance of 2-3% same-store sales growth for Q2 FY26 (May 4 - August 2, 2025), aligning with analyst expectations for an earnings beat.
The largest growth in same-store visits went to HomeGoods, which continues to be a key growth engine for TJX, with its outperformance stemming from a multi-faceted competitive edge. Its consistent lead over the core apparel banners, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, may be due to its more defensible position in the less-crowded off-price home category. And when compared to its sister brand, Homesense, HomeGoods' superior performance may be attributed to its significant brand maturity and a merchandise mix centered on higher-frequency, smaller-ticket items. This positions the banner effectively to capture discretionary spending from consumers seeking affordable indulgences in the current economic environment.
All banners experienced YoY growth in overall traffic, but the strongest growth went to the latest newest additions to the company's U.S. portfolio – Homesense and Sierra, suggesting that both brands have a long runway for unit potential.
Sierra is engineered to capture a significant share of the lucrative outdoor and active lifestyle market, a space that critically lacks a dominant, national, off-price competitor, giving it a clearer and more defensible runway for explosive growth. In contrast, while Homesense plays the vital role of deepening TJX's penetration in the home category with larger-scale items like furniture, it enters a more contested field and must contend with established competition from other discount and value-oriented furniture retailers.
Both expansions are ultimately underpinned by TJX's core competency: leveraging its world-class buying organization and real estate expertise to dominate new off-price segments and capture a larger share of total consumer discretionary spending.
This push into new product categories is happening in parallel with a push into new markets. Year-over-year analysis reveals TJX has systematically expanded its rural and semi-rural household penetration across all banners – aligning with management's stated focus on "smaller markets and smaller footprint stores" as identified growth opportunities. With TJX planning around 130 net new stores in 2025, this rural expansion strategy provides a credible pathway for continued domestic growth in an increasingly competitive retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. By means of this publication, Placer Labs Inc. (“Placer”) is not rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor.
Placer shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication. The opinions and data presented are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Placer and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Placer.
As the U.S. economy enters the second half of 2025, evidence is mounting that consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases. This possibility was something we recently discussed when highlighting the divergence between industrial and retail activity. While last week's Amazon Prime Day and other sales events drove a temporary surge in visits for big-ticket and back-to-school items, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and the first real impacts of tariff-related price increases appear to be taking a toll on consumer confidence. With sentiment remaining fragile, households are becoming more selective, prioritizing essential spending while cutting back on discretionary purchases and travel.
Recently, Placer’s analyst team looked at visitation trends for airports, but we’re also seeing a slowdown in car travel based on visitation data to gas stations. After a sluggish February, foot traffic to gas stations and convenience stores has continued to show year-over-year declines through the spring and into the summer. This trend points to more than just fluctuating fuel prices; it reflects a conscious pullback by consumers who appear to be consolidating trips and reducing non-essential driving. This financial anxiety is causing many to shorten or delay vacation plans, resulting in weaker foot traffic at airports and fewer long-distance road trips.
Our analysis confirms that the traditional summer vacation is being reshaped by this economic uncertainty. Using our new Markets data, we’ve seen a decrease in the average miles traveled during the first half of 2025 for roughly two-thirds of the top 25 most populated markets in the U.S.
This has led to a rise in shorter "micro-cations" rather than extended, long-haul journeys. Consequently, while people are still traveling, the overall distance covered per trip has decreased, a sentiment that also extends to air travel, where a slowdown in both leisure and corporate bookings reflects a broad pullback on expensive, long-distance commitments in favor of more predictable, regional getaways.
As we move through July, the consumer narrative for the second half of 2025 is being defined by a strategic retreat in discretionary spending, particularly travel. While major sales events can still create temporary bursts of activity, the underlying trend shows a more cautious consumer responding to economic pressures by reducing non-essential driving, shortening vacation distances, and opting for more budget-friendly "micro-cations." This shift away from long-haul travel, visible in both gas station and airport traffic data, signals a significant recalibration of household budgets that will likely shape the broader retail and travel landscape for the remainder of the year.
Mall visit trends improved slightly in July 2025. Indoor mall traffic grew 1.3% year-over-year, reversing June's visit declines. This growth highlights indoor malls' rebound and suggests that enclosed shopping centers continue to attract consumers seeking climate-controlled comfort during peak summer heat.
Meanwhile, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls narrowed their visit gaps, with visits to open-air shopping centers almost on par with July 2024 levels and visits to outlet malls just 2.1% lower than this time last year.
Diving into the weekly data reveals a more complex picture. While mid-July visits were generally up relative to 2024 – perhaps boosted by the various July sales events – traffic across all three formats softened towards the end of the month. This may suggest that these major promotional events may be pulling demand forward rather than generating sustained, incremental traffic and highlights the challenge of converting a promotional 'sugar rush' into lasting momentum.
Boise Towne Square significantly outpaced the broader Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index in July, posting 12.2% year-over-year growth versus the national average of 1.3% – extending the Idaho mall's exceptional performance streak throughout 2025. And remarkably, Boise Towne Square has also consistently surpassed its pre-pandemic visit level every month of 2025 so far.
While multiple factors likely contribute to this strength, a major traffic driver has been the new In-N-Out location that opened in the mall in late October 2024. Since the opening, visits to Boise Towne Square have steadily increased, and other tenants – including other dining establishments – have also benefited from sustained visit improvements across the entire mall.
This demonstrates the powerful halo effect that a high-draw non-traditional anchor tenant can create for an entire shopping center.
To check out retail foot traffic trends for yourself, try Placer.ai's free industry trends tool.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
