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When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Overall visits to U.S. grocery stores rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026, extending a streak of growth that now spans four consecutive quarters. At the category level, most of this growth was driven by expansion, as the average number of visits per location remained essentially flat YoY.
Still, a deeper look at the data reveals meaningful variation across segments and regions, shedding light on the dynamics shaping grocery traffic in 2026.
Grocery visit growth has been positive in every quarter over the past year, peaking at 3.3% YoY in Q4 before moderating to 1.7% in Q1 2026. Per-location visits, however, lagged overall growth throughout the analyzed period, increasing just 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026.
The takeaway? New store openings, rather than stronger performance from existing locations, are accounting for most of the category's recent visit gains.
That said, the combination of ongoing expansion and steady performance at existing locations points to resilient underlying demand. Even as mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce players compete for share, dedicated grocery stores remain a fundamentally durable format.
The relatively flat nationwide per-location performance also masks some regional variation. Several statewide markets – including Montana, Colorado, Maine, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Indiana – saw per-location visit growth exceeding 2.0% YoY in Q1 2026.
This divergence suggests that local dynamics, ranging from population growth and suburban expansion to competitive intensity and store rollout strategies, are playing a role in shaping performance. In other words, while national trends appear stable, grocery remains a highly localized business where market-specific factors can drive outperformance.
A closer look at different grocery segments reveals further variation.
Fresh-format grocers like Trader Joe's and Sprouts led in overall visit growth, highlighting a rapidly expanding segment that is capturing a growing share of traffic while also maintaining solid YoY visit performance at existing stores. Value grocers also saw expansion-driven gains, though per-location traffic was softer at -2.8% YoY. And though traditional grocery chains have not been on an expansion trajectory, they slightly outperformed fresh-format players on a per-location basis, with visits up 1.5% YoY. For a segment that has lagged peers for several quarters, this represents notable improvement.
What's behind traditional groceries’ emerging store-level strength?
One explanation may be traditional grocers' success in capturing the short trip – the fastest-growing type of grocery visit. Whether driven by curbside pickup or quick fill-in runs for a few missing items or an inexpensive prepared lunch, these visits are becoming increasingly common. And a look at relative category-wide visit share shows that traditional grocers are the only grocery segment over-indexing on sub-10 minute visits, capturing a greater share of short visits than of overall grocery traffic in Q1 2026.
This suggests that habit, proximity, and assortment breadth may matter more than price positioning when a shopper just needs a few items fast. Traditional grocery shoppers may also be more likely than value-oriented shoppers to use curbside pickup – a service that may come with markups or additional fees – while fresh and specialty shoppers may be more inclined to browse in-store.
The Q1 2026 grocery landscape is defined by steady but uneven growth. New store expansion is fueling topline gains, while performance varies across regions and formats. At the same time, the rise of short, convenience-driven trips is subtly reshaping the competitive landscape – favoring retailers that can deliver speed, accessibility, and consistency over those competing primarily on price or experiential differentiation.
So is traditional grocery making a comeback? Not in the sense of reclaiming overall growth leadership. But in some of the areas that increasingly matter, traditional grocers are carving out a durable and defensible role.
Will traditional grocery retailers continue to thrive as the year wears on? Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Warehouse clubs continue to benefit from their strong value proposition, sustaining meaningful visit growth even amid macro uncertainty. And elevated fuel prices are adding another tailwind, driving increased traffic to wholesale club gas stations. Leveraging location intelligence, we examined recent performance for Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
Recent visit data for BJ’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club reveals how the warehouse club model continues to resonate with consumers. All three chains sustained year-over-year (YoY) visit growth over the past six months, and while growth moderated briefly in March 2026, a rebound in April suggests the slowdown was more calendar-driven than demand-driven. March 2026 included one fewer Saturday than the prior year – a small shift that can have a significant impact on time-rich retail formats.
Real estate strategy also emerged as a key factor shaping traffic trends across the three wholesalers. Costco and BJ’s both saw gains in overall visits alongside same-store growth, indicating that performance was supported by a combination of new unit expansion and growing demand at existing locations. Costco added 15 domestic warehouses in fiscal 2025 and appears on track for a similar pace in fiscal 2026, while BJ's opened seven clubs in fiscal 2025 and and is signaling a more aggressive expansion over the next two years, including its recent entry into the Dallas-Fort Worth market.
Sam's Club, by contrast, added just one new location in its fiscal 2026 (ended January 2026) while completing 14 remodels – pointing to a strategy centered on optimizing its existing footprint. This emphasis is reflected in the close alignment between overall and same-store visits, suggesting that growth is being driven primarily by improvements within the current store base. Still, Sam’s Club’s pipeline includes at least one upcoming opening, which could indicate a gradual shift toward expansion – potentially blending its optimization strategy with the unit growth that has supported momentum for its peers.
Beyond the traffic inside wholesale clubs, an equally notable story is unfolding at their gas stations. As the chart below shows, visits to BJ’s Gas, Costco Gas, and Sam’s Club Fuel accelerated in early March 2026, aligning with a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Iran War. Perhaps expectedly, this demonstrates that competitively priced fuel is a meaningful traffic driver during periods of elevated gas prices – reinforcing the value proposition of warehouse club memberships. If fuel prices remain high, members may be more inclined to consolidate shopping trips around fuel fill-ups, potentially boosting both gas station traffic and in-club spending.
Diving deeper into March and April visitor patterns offer further perspective into how fuel prices are influencing wholesale club member behavior. Across all three wholesale gas chains, the share of visitors who visited at least twice rose in both March and April 2026 compared to 2025.
Rising visit frequency suggests that increased traffic is not being driven by one-time responses to pricing pressure. Instead, higher fuel prices appear to be prompting members to consistently shift a greater share of their fuel spend into the wholesale ecosystem.
And more frequent fill-ups increase the likelihood that gas trips are paired with in-club shopping, suggesting that habits formed in response to pricing dynamics at the pump may ultimately drive increases in visit frequency and in-store spend.
In the wholesale club space, core value perception is sustaining steady visit growth, while elevated fuel prices are amplifying that advantage by driving incremental traffic and frequent visits to gas stations.
In this context, wholesale fuel is transforming club-member behavior and has the potential to drive deeper, long-term engagement with the retailers as a whole.
Will these trends continue in the months ahead? Check back in with The Anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Brick-and-mortar retail foot traffic continues to demonstrate notable resilience despite rising gas prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, with April 2026 marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) gains. March's relative softness now looks like the product of calendar shifts rather than the start of a structural decline – retail visits essentially held last year's levels despite one fewer Saturday and store closures for Easter. And April's subsequent rebound reinforces that underlying consumer demand remains intact, with shoppers continuing to show up to physical stores even as they contend with elevated prices at the pump and an uncertain economic backdrop.
But the real star of April's consumer data was Placer's Ecommerce Distribution Index, which registered a massive 20.5% YoY increase in foot traffic, following an already strong 16.3% gain in March – likely driven in part by elevated gas prices nudging some consumers online.
The traffic data indicates that both physical and digital retail grew simultaneously despite historically weak consumer sentiment – suggesting that consumers are saying one thing and doing another, and that underlying demand may be more durable than the headlines suggest.
Meanwhile, manufacturing foot traffic came under renewed pressure in April 2026 following two months of tentative stabilization. This softness in physical activity persists despite a wave of headline-grabbing investment announcements: private-sector U.S. manufacturing commitments have surpassed $1.6 trillion and Q1 2026 industrial net absorption rose 52% YoY, the strongest start to a year since 2023. The disconnect reflects a fundamental shift underway – leasing demand is increasingly concentrated in automation-ready, high-clearance facilities, meaning more square footage is being absorbed with fewer workers walking through the door.
For more retail and CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Fast casual extended its winning streak into April 2026, while shifting visit durations across all restaurant formats point to deeper changes in how consumers are choosing to dine.
April 2026 marked another month of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth for fast casual, with traffic rising 1.9% compared to April 2025. The consistency of that trend – visible in the chart below – speaks to the ongoing strength of the segment’s value perception as consumer sentiment declines and energy costs spike – putting pressure on household budgets. Consumers continue to weigh quality and experience against price, and fast casual – sitting between the affordability of QSR and the elevated cost of full-service – keeps clearing that bar. This could also explain the slight decline in QSR visits – for the second consecutive month – which may be reflecting rising prices that are narrowing the gap with fast casual and prompting some consumers to trade up.
Full service restaurants, meanwhile, saw their visit gap improve following March's 4.8% YoY decline – which may indicate that March's dramatic decrease may have been due to calendar shifts rather than to a sharp drop in demand. (March 2025 had five Saturdays compared to March 2026's four, which likely hurt full-service's total monthly traffic last month.) The return to modest dips suggests that, while underlying demand is facing broader macro headwinds, the pressure is less severe than last month’s outsized drop implied.
Beyond visit counts, April 2026 brought a slight shift in visit duration. Mid-length visits (10 to 30 minutes) grew their share YoY across all three segments, while the share of very short visits (under 10 minutes) declined for QSR and fast-casual and the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) fell for all three categories.
For QSR, the 10 to 30 minute visit bucket grew from 30.2% of visits in April 2025 to 31.2% in April 2026 – a meaningful shift for a segment where speed is a core value. This could reflect consumers skipping the drive-thru, and opting to park and dine-in instead, as fuel costs make idling a less economical proposition.
Fast casual visits revealed a similar pattern, as mid-length visits in the segment edged up from 34.2% in April 2025 to 35.4% in April 2026. Given that fast casual is already designed for a more relaxed dining pace than QSR, the uptick in mid-length visits might reflect a combination of factors – consumers leaning into the sit-down experience, and slightly longer wait times as the segment's sustained popularity pressures throughput.
Meanwhile, full-service visits saw a decline in the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) while the share of both short and mid-length visits increased – though longer visits still lead in overall share. Lighter checks, smaller parties, or a more purposeful approach to dining occasions could all be contributing factors.
Fast casual's sustained outperformance and the industry-wide shift toward mid-length visits both point in the same direction: consumers are engaging more selectively with dining, and the segments and brands that offer a compelling experience are pulling ahead.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In April 2026, Home Depot's five-day return-to-office mandate took effect for corporate employees – the latest addition to a growing list of major employers requiring more in-person presence. What does the latest data reveal about the pace of recovery on the ground?
Nationwide office visits landed 29.1% below April 2019 levels in April 2026 – a slight improvement compared to April 2025. While this marks continued progress, the pace of recovery was more measured than in March, which saw a 4.2 percentage point gain when controlling for the number of working days. (April 2025 and April 2026 had the same number of working days, offering a clean basis for comparison).
Alongside the growing wave of mandates, a survey from MyPerfectResume early this year found that just 7% of employees would quit outright over a mandatory RTO policy in 2026 – down from 51% in January 2025. The shift reflects a labor market that has continued to soften, leaving workers with less leverage to push back on policies they might have resisted just a year ago.
On the other side of the ledger, rising gas prices introduced a meaningful counterweight in April, with the national average surpassing $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022. For daily commuters already reassessing the cost of in-office work, a jump of more than $1.00 per gallon in a single month is a significant headwind – and likely one factor behind the slower pace of gains.
Looking across eleven major office markets, nearly all posted modest YoY visit growth, led again by West Coast hubs Los Angeles and San Francisco. Once viewed as a persistent laggard, San Francisco’s AI-powered recovery has helped it avoid the bottom spot for several months running. And as the city’s narrative continues shifting from “doom loop” to “boom loop,” it is likely to keep gaining ground in the months ahead.
Denver, on the other hand, finished last in April across both measures – down 45.3% versus April 2019 and 1.1% from a year ago. With one of the most remote-friendly labor markets in the country and downtown office vacancy still hovering around 38%, the city is increasingly leaning on alternative strategies such as office-to-residential conversions to revive its urban core. Still, prime and Class A buildings remain a bright spot, as employers look to draw workers back with higher-quality spaces and perks rather than mandates alone – and as these efforts gain traction, Denver could begin to narrow the gap.
April’s data reinforces a familiar theme: The return to office remains non-linear, marked by steady but uneven progress. Mandates continue to accumulate and employer leverage has strengthened compared to last year, helping push attendance higher. But rising gas prices are adding friction – and the gap between the nation’s strongest and weakest office markets remains wide.
For more data-driven RTO reports follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
