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When we last checked in with the home improvement category, high interest rates and a cooling housing market had impacted visits to retailers The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply. As 2024 gets underway, what might lie ahead for these chains? We take a look at the data to find out.
Home Depot and Lowe’s, two of the largest home improvement retailers in the country, command a significant share of the industry. The two chains experienced ups and downs over the past few years, from a pandemic-era spike in visits to a more recent slowdown as rising prices and slowing home sales led many would-be shoppers to rethink a renovation.
The turbulence in the Home Improvement space continued in 2023. In the first half of the year, foot traffic to The Home Depot and Lowe’s showed modest increases on a year-over-year (YoY) basis – but that momentum slowed into the years’ second half as home sales dropped to a six-month low.
Visit performance to these retailers may well improve in 2024. Should home sales pick up as mortgage rates continue on their expected downward trajectory, home improvement chains would likely see an increase in visits as new homeowners grab equipment for renovations.
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Analyzing median household income (HHI) of visitors to The Home Depot and Lowe’s, segmented by potential and captured markets, may provide insights into The Home Depot's stronger year-over-year foot traffic performance. (A chain's potential market looks at the Census Block Groups (CBGs) where visitors to a chain originate, weighted according to the CBG’s population. In contrast, captured market visit data reflects figures weighted by the actual number of visits from each CBG.)
The trade area median HHI tends to be higher for Home Depot than for Lowe’s in the chains’ potential markets – and the differences grow even more pronounced when analyzing the captured market. The Home Depot’s potential market median HHI stood at $71.5K/year – just slightly higher than Lowe’s $69.6K/year. But The Home Depot’s captured market median HHI was $74.3K/year in 2023 – around 4% higher than the chain’s potential market median HHI. Meanwhile, Lowe’s captured market median HHI of $69.0K/year was around 1% lower than its potential market median HHI.
The income disparity between the visitor bases of the two chains may provide context for The Home Depot’s foot traffic strength compared to Lowe’s – The Home Depot’s wealthier customers may be more insulated from the effects of inflation. And as inflation eases and demand for home renovations creeps up, Lowe’s may yet see visits tick up as its customers return to the chain.
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Tractor Supply Co. – another major home improvement chain – also offers a variety of products geared toward farm and ranch living, including animal feed and farm equipment. The company was a surprising pandemic winner, seeing its sales and foot traffic grow significantly as people moved to the countryside.
The chain's popularity has remained strong even as the pandemic-induced migration trends subside and the influx of city-dwellers to rural areas slows down. Visits to Tractor Supply remained consistently high throughout 2023, with only two months experiencing YoY foot traffic lags. Tractor Supply visits also outpaced visits to the home improvement category as a whole, indicating sustained demand for farm products.
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A deeper exploration of the three home improvement chains’ psychographic compositions indicates that Tractor Supply’s popularity with rural segments (as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) may be fueling some of its sustained visit success.
All three chains saw a higher share of rural visitors in their captured market compared to their potential market – indicating that rural consumers are particularly interested in home improvement tools and products. And of the three chains, Tractor Supply served the largest share of rural visitors by far. The share of rural audience segments in Tractor Supply’s potential markets significantly exceeded the share of these segments in the trade areas of Lowe’s and The Home Depot’s, and the relative share of rural segments in Tractor Supply’s captured market was even more impressive.
Lowe’s, which has bolstered its rural presence over the past year, had the second-highest percentage of rural segments in both its potential and captured markets – although its share of rural visitors was still considerably lower than Tractor Supply’s.
Meanwhile, The Home Depot saw the smallest share of rural visitors across all rural segments analyzed. The company’s captured market had just slightly more Rural High Income and Rural Low Income visitors relative to its potential market, and there was no difference between its captured and potential market shares of Rural Average Income consumers.
The impressive over-representation of rural customers to Lowe’s and Tractor Supply suggest that the rural potential for home improvement chains is significant – and chains that tap into the segment may see further foot traffic to their stores.
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The home improvement space has seen plenty of variance over the past few years, from the pandemic-fueled DIY highs of 2020 and 2021 to the overall slowdown brought on by inflation in 2023. Will visits begin to pick up again into 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog for the latest data-driven retail insights.
How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out.
The superstore and wholesale space performed well across the board in 2023, with leading retailers seeing consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth throughout the year. Costco led the pack in terms of overall YoY visit performance, followed by Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. The wholesale clubs’ strength may be due in part to the chains’ attractive gas prices, which were likely particularly tempting to 2023 consumers looking to stretch their budget.
Visits to Target also remained above the chain’s 2022 baseline during all four quarters, and Walmart – which closed several stores last year – mostly beat its 2022 visit performance, with the exception of Q4 where traffic remained essentially on par with last year’s levels.
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Visits to four out of five of the analyzed superstores and wholesale clubs dipped slightly in January 2024 relative to January 2023, perhaps due to comparisons to a strong Q1 2023 performance or to post-holidays consumer cutbacks. But despite the challenging circumstances, the YoY drops remained minimal – so the softer start to the year is not necessarily an indication of things to come.
And in contrast to the subdued visit performance in the rest of the category, Costco foot traffic exceeded its January 2023 visit baseline – revealing the potential for the superstore space to grow in a positive direction in 2024.
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Analyzing monthly visits to leading superstore and wholesale clubs in 2023 compared to each chain’s monthly visit average reveals different consumer patterns for each brand.
While all chains saw their monthly visits peak in December, Target experienced the most significant holiday peak, with a 33.9% increase in monthly visits compared to its 2023 monthly average – more than double the increases of the other four chains analyzed. Target also saw the strongest August visit growth relative to its 2023 monthly average as parents and students likely flocked to the chain in search of Back-to-School apparel and supplies.
In June and July, Walmart’s relative visit growth exceeded that of the other four chains – possible thanks to consumers stocking up on summer supplies. And the wholesale clubs saw larger relative increases in November, as those chains’ bulk grocery offerings may have helped consumers shop for a crowd ahead of Thanksgiving dinner.
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The trade areas of all five chains analyzed included a higher share of Households with Children when compared to the nationwide average. But the two superstore brands – Walmart and Target – also had larger percentages of 1-Person and Non-Family (roommate) Households when compared to the nationwide average, while the three wholesale clubs had smaller shares.
So while average wholesale clubs and their large selection of bulk packaged items cater primarily to families, superstores seem to attract a wider range of shoppers, including consumers shopping for one and living alone or with roommates.
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Diving into the psychographic composition of the trade areas highlights additional differences between the various chains’ audiences.
The trade areas of Walmart and of its subsidiary Sam’s Club had the highest share of Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s small town and rural audience segments, including “Small Town Low Income,” “Rural Low Income,” “Rural Average Income,” and “Rural High Income.”
Suburban segments were more distributed. Walmart and Sam’s Club served a higher share of “Blue Collar Suburbs” while Target and Costco drew more “Wealthy Suburban Families” – and BJ’s Wholesale Club received the largest percentage of “Upper Suburban Diverse Families.”
BJ’s trade area also included the largest shares of almost all the urban segments with the exception of “Educated Urbanites” – defined by Spatial.ai as “well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs” – for which Target came out on top.
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The leading superstore and wholesale clubs performed well in 2023 as consumers relied on their bulk-packaging and value-pricing to stretch their increasingly strained budgets.
What does 2024 have in store? Visit the placer.ai blog to find out.
It only comes around once every 12 years, and for those born in the Year of the Dragon, they are considered to be the luckiest of the Zodiac signs. This year’s element is wood, and thus a Wood Dragon year can portend good fortune, action, and expansion. Let’s take a look at some Asian concepts, brands, and shopping centers and see if our Placer trends indicate whether they might be in for a lucky, powerful year.
Tea drinks, especially those including tapioca pearls otherwise known as boba have created billionaires in China, and global expansion means that you can get your fill of the chewy goodies all over the world nowadays. Some of the largest chains in the US include Kung Fu Tea, with over 350 locations; Gong Cha; Sharetea with more than 500 stores in 15 locations; Boba Guys known for their famous strawberry puree matcha tea latte; and It’s Boba Time, Happy Lemon, YiFang Taiwan Fruit Tea, and Boba Loca.
Tea has been an integral part of our global history. As a precious commodity, it was traded along the Silk Road, leading to increased transcontinental commerce. In American history, the Boston Tea Party was perhaps not so much about tea itself but about taxation and representation, but in any words, it was definitely a catalyst towards American independence. And now, thousands of years later, tea continues to be a tour de force for antioxidants, anti-aging, and an overall delicious base for a bevy of creative drinks. Economists often talk about the “latte index” - used to estimate purchasing power parity in 16 countries around the world compared to the cost of a tall Starbucks latte in NYC.
With the way things are going with teas, could a boba index not be far behind? We examined year-over-year traffic for some of the leading tea/boba chains compared to specialty coffee chains. Boba has seen gains compared to last year, usually at a higher percentage than coffee. Both beverage type chains have trended upwards in 2023, although coffee had a bit of a dip in the latter part of the year.
To be fair, one can often order a coffee at a tea store and vice versa, but there are certainly toppings and color sensations at tea stores that are uniquely suited to social media, such as butterfly pea, which is an intense shade of violet, or various vibrant toppings such as popping boba in pink and orange. In some creations, the tea is even dispensed with entirely, such as Tiger Sugar’s brown sugar boba milk with a deep caramel flavor, or their highly-coveted ice cream bar version of the drink.
For those wishing for an authentic taste of an Asian shopping mall experience during Lunar New Year, there are many options around the US including Chinese shopping malls in the west like Focus Plaza/San Gabriel Square in San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Jamboree in Irvine, Shanghai Plaza in Chinatown Las Vegas, and Great Wall Mall in Kent, WA as well as in the east like Tangram and New World Mall in Flushing, NY.
Of these malls, Diamond Jamboree is the most visited. It has local favorites like The Kickin' Crab, Hai Di Lao, and Pepper Lunch. For dessert, head on over to Meet Fresh, with its refreshing grass jelly or chewy taro balls or SomiSomi for the cutest fish-shaped pancakes and a delectable choice of soft-serve flavors like ube and sesame.
Next is Shanghai Plaza, which is located in Las Vegas Chinatown. At Shanghai Taste, one can slurp xiao long bao soup dumplings, and another favorite - sheng jian bao - which is basically the love child of the more well known bao zi (meat bun) and the aforementioned xiao long bao. Somehow, it manages to have the fluffiness of the outer dough with a burst of soup and filling inside. Add the slight crunchiness of a pan-fried base and your mouth will be amazed by the variety of flavors and textures.
San Gabriel Square, also known as Focus Plaza, is the granddaddy of San Gabriel Valley larger-than-life malls. Also lovingly named “Chinese Disneyland” it offers a famous restaurant Five Star Seafood, a 99 Ranch, as well as other restaurants and jewelry stores. It opened in 1990 and became the place where one could go to buy laserdiscs for karaoke machines, as well as buy delicacies like honey-dried mangoes or salted plums. Nearly 25 years later, it is poised for renovation as it competes with other Chinese malls in the Greater Los Angeles and Orange County area for hot new restaurants and bakeries.
Moving across the country, we have Tangram in Queens, NY. Who doesn’t love an Asian food hall, with its dizzying array of hawkers, smells, and bustle? Tangram opened its Food Hall in January 2023, with a mix of international cuisine such as Joju for Vietnamese sandwiches, Zaab Zaab for Thai food, and Na Tart for egg tarts. One unique offering at Xi’an Famous Food is their piece de resistance lamb noodles. Topped with melt-in-your-mouth lamb, the broth is composed of both cumin and chili, and the hand-pulled noodles offer you that perfect texture referred to as “qq” in Chinese, whose closest renditions for noodles in another language might be “al dente.” This food hall spans 24,000 square feet and is lit with neon to mimic the non-stop night market energy in cosmopolitan Asian cities.
Great Wall Mall in Kent, Seattle is another Pan-Asian shopping center, despite its Chinese-centric name. Anchored by a 99 Ranch market, it also includes Chinese and Vietnamese restaurants, a Korean clothing store, hair and nail salons, and home decor. Architecturally, the outside is flanked by a fortress-style wall that mimics the Great Wall of China.
Last, but not least, we have New World Mall. Another sprawling food hall awaits, with over two dozen eateries to choose from. The exciting part of visiting food halls is the ability to get to the level of regional cuisine. Whether its Chongqing xiao mian featuring spicy Sichuan noodles or knife-cut noodles from Lanzhou, one has the opportunity to try a variety of cooking styles, nuances in similar-sounding dishes, and basically explore an entire country through its diversity of tastes.
The past couple of years have been challenging ones for the dining industry as high food prices and economic headwinds led many consumers to cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Still, people can’t eat at home all the time, and there’s always demand for restaurants that serve up good food and a welcoming ambiance – without breaking the bank.
So with Q4 2023 under our belts, we dove into the data to check in with two dining chains that are especially good at giving customers what they want: Shake Shack and Wingstop. How did they perform during the final quarter of 2023? And what lies ahead for them in the new year?
Shake Shack, curiously named after an amusement park ride from 70’s hit movie Grease, continues to impress. Following a robust third quarter, the gourmet burger joint maintained strong positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout Q4 2023 – finishing out the year with a remarkable 24.3% foot traffic jump in December 2023.
Wingstop, another darling of the dining industry, also ended 2023 with a bang. Whether celebrating the New York Knicks with a special lemon garlic flavor, or jumping on the dry January bandwagon with its own “dry rub January”, the popular chicken restaurant draws crowds by staying up-to-date with popular trends. And throughout Q4 2023, Wingstop saw positive visit growth ranging from 12.8% to 16.3%.
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The ongoing success of these two chains in a difficult overall environment shows that there’s more than one way to win at the dining game. With limited-time offerings like White Truffle Burgers, and sandwiches that feature Kimchi slaw, Shake Shack’s relatively upscale offerings have traditionally drawn affluent audiences. But as the chain has continued to expand, its customer base has diversified – with the median household income (HHI) of its captured market dropping by 8.6% over the past four years. Over the same period, the share of ultra-wealthy families and educated urbanites in the restaurant’s captured market declined, while the share of young professionals and urban low income consumers increased. Wider audiences, of course, means broader appeal – and more people getting addicted to Shake Shack’s delicious offerings.
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Wingstop, for its part, has pursued a somewhat different strategy. Positioned as an affordable eatery straddling the space between fast food and fast-casual, Wingstop draws less well-to-do consumers. Combining foot traffic data with demographics from STI’s PopStats shows that the median HHI of Wingstop’s captured market came in at $62.1K in Q4 2023, well below the nationwide baseline of $69.5K.
But despite targeting a demographic with less discretionary income, Wingstop has carved out a niche for itself as a to-go dining destination for people seeking the perfect place to sit down to a nice, big meal with the family. In Wingstop’s four biggest markets – Texas, California, Florida, and Illinois – the chain’s trade areas featured more persons per household than the statewide averages in Q4 2023. And Wingstop’s captured markets were also over-indexed for families with children – showing that parents are particularly likely to pay the restaurant a visit.
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Though food prices have stabilized and consumer confidence has begun to recover, last year ended on a tough note for restaurants. But while the category as a whole has yet to fully regain its footing, chains like Shake Shack and Wingstop are finding success by leaning into evolving consumer demand.
Will cooling inflation kickstart a dining revival? And what does the rest of 2024 have in store for Shake Shack and Wingstop?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
Few things are more beloved by Americans than a steak – and two of the most popular steakhouse chains in the U.S. are Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. Who is visiting these chains, and what characteristics do they share? We take a closer look.
Food-away-from-home prices remained high for much of 2023, presenting challenges for dining establishments as would-be restaurant patrons reconsidered going for a meal out. Outback Steakhouse in particular felt the impact of the dining downturn, with year-over-year (YoY) visits falling in 2023 – although the dip may also be due to the chain’s downsizing its store fleet. And the chain seems to have offset at least some of the drop thanks to its price increases, which increased the value of every visit.
Texas Roadhouse, meanwhile, continued its expansion and benefited from growing YoY foot traffic every quarter of 2023.
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Texas Roadhouse’s success is particularly notable given its trade area median HHI. Both Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse tend to have a lower median household income (median HH) in their trade areas when compared to the average fast-casual chain, despite having higher price points. The steakhouse leaders also have a trade area median HHI that is significantly lower than the overall fine-dining segment.
The lower median HHI of Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse visitors suggests that these diners may be avoiding the purchase of more casual, on-the-go meals and instead choosing to direct their more limited funds toward special occasion dining. And Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse may be seen as an affordable luxury for those seeking a more elevated dining experience than might be found at a local fast-casual joint.
By understanding the types of diners who visit the restaurant, dining chains can make sure to deliver the type of experience their customers are seeking – in this case, a special-occasion dining destination that won't break the bank.
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Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse Popular Among Suburban Segments
A deeper exploration of the psychographic compositions of each chains’ trade area reveals that suburban families are particularly drawn to Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. For both chains, the share of households in Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive “Upper Suburban Diverse Families,” “Suburban Boomers,” and “Wealthy Suburban Families” segments exceeded the statewide average in several major states.
As suburban markets continue gaining momentum, Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse’s popularity with suburban audiences can help the chains stay ahead of the pack in 2024.
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The State Of Steak
The enduring appeal of a well-made steak (or Blooming Onion, or honey butter) is indisputable. Will customers continue to visit these chains for a special occasion? Or will 2024 bring with it a new shift in diner preferences?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Remote work may not be bad for companies’ bottom lines – but it does appear to have drawbacks for employees. Fully remote workers were 35% more likely to be laid off in 2023 than those who came into the office at least part of the week. And full-time WFH personnel also got fewer promotions.
Still, reaping the benefits of in-person office work doesn’t require a full-time return to office. (Five days a week? Seriously?) And for many participants in the remote work wars, 2023 was a year for compromise. But what did the hybrid model look like in 2023? And who were last year’s office visitors?
We dove into the data to find out.
Analyzing office visit trends over the past several years suggests that some variation of the hybrid model is indeed here to stay – though the jury’s still out on whether we’ve found the sweet spot. Since Q2 2023, quarterly visits to office buildings have remained about 34.0%-38.0% below pre-COVID levels. But Q4 2023 office foot traffic was 12.9% higher than the equivalent period of 2022, suggesting that additional office recovery may still be in the cards.
Regionally speaking, Miami and New York closed out 2023 at the head of the pack, with visits about 20% below the pre-pandemic baseline. Dallas and Chicago finished the year with respective quarterly visit gaps of 31.8% and 43.0%. And San Francisco continued to bring up the rear, with office foot traffic 53.8% below pre-COVID levels.
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These general trends continued into January 2024. Nationwide, office buildings experienced a 42.1% year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit gap, potentially indicating stalling recovery. But at the same time, major markets across the country – most impressively San Francisco – saw sustained YoY visit growth, showing that the return to office (RTO) story is still being written.
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Whether office recovery has run its course, or whether 2024 promises a renewed upward trajectory – a more granular picture of the specific habits and characteristics of office-goers can help stakeholders adapt to evolving trends.
And while foot traffic remains substantially below 2019 levels, the affluence of office buildings’ visitor base has very nearly rebounded to what it was before COVID. In Q1 2019, the median household income (HHI) of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market stood at $91.9K, a metric which plummeted in early 2020 as more affluent employees rode out lockdowns from home. But since then, the median HHI has slowly risen – reaching $90.1K - $91.6K in 2023.
Unsurprisingly, remote and hybrid work opportunities aren’t distributed equally – and wealthier, more-educated workers are better positioned than others to take advantage of them. But visitors to major office buildings tend to have significantly higher-than-average HHIs to begin with (STI’s PopStats puts the nationwide baseline at $69.5K). So even if the median HHI of office visitors is once again close to what it was before COVID, it is these relatively affluent employees that are coming in less frequently and helping to shape the new hybrid normal.
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At the same time, there has been a subtle but distinct decline in the share of parental households in offices’ captured markets – indicating that parents of children accounted for a smaller proportion of office visits in 2023 than in 2019. This change varied by region, with Chicago seeing the smallest shift and tech-heavy San Francisco seeing the largest one.
For many working parents, flexibility is the name of the game – and employees juggling parental responsibilities along with their work loads may be particularly eager to embrace working from home.
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Another data point that’s particularly important for stakeholders to understand is the daily breakdown of office visits throughout the week. And foot traffic data for 2023 shows that the TGIF work week that we first observed in 2022 remains more firmly entrenched than ever. People continue to concentrate office visits mid-week and log on from home on Mondays and especially Fridays – an effect that is most pronounced in San Francisco, and least pronounced in Miami. And for municipalities, CRE companies, and local businesses that rely on office foot traffic, recognizing the persistence of this pattern can be key to making the most of those days when offices are abuzz with activity.
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The new hybrid model remains a work in progress – and it’s too soon to tell whether offices will indeed see further attendance increases in 2024. But either way, the behaviors and attributes of office-goers will continue to evolve, presenting stakeholders with opportunities and challenges alike.
What does 2024 have in store for RTO? And how will the profile of visitors to America’s offices change in the new year?
Follow placer.ai/blog to find out.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
