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We dove into the visit data to see how Starbucks, Dunkin,’ and Dutch Bros are faring in Q1 2025.
Affordable luxuries like coffee tend to do well in times of rising prices and heightened budget-consciousness. So it should come as no surprise that visits to coffee chains have been on the rise recently, with overall traffic to the category up 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025. Much of the increase can be attributed to the aggressive expansions of small and medium coffee chains such as Dutch Bros (13.4% YoY increase in visits in Q1 2025), Scooter’s Coffee (+15.3% YoY) and 7 Brew Coffee (+87.3%).
Meanwhile, visits to coffee leaders Starbucks and Dunkin’ remained relatively stable – falling by just 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, in line with the wider QSR Q1 2025 YoY visit gap of 1.6%. Contrasting the growth of smaller coffee chains with Starbucks and Dunkin’s minor traffic dips may suggest that consumers prefer to spend their limited discretionary funds on unique or decadent treats instead of on classic drinks and pastries.
But despite the rapid growth of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the coffee category, receiving over half of combined visits to Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew Coffee. At the same time, though, Starbucks’ stronghold on the category may be loosening slightly – the Seattle-based coffee giant’s relative visit share fell from 55.8% in Q1 2024 to 51.2% in Q1 2025 as smaller chains continued growing and expanding.
The cross-visitation data also highlights Starbucks’ dominance. In Q1 2025, the majority of visitors to most other coffee chains (51.3% of Dunkin’ visitors, 65.7% of Dutch Bros, and 58.4% of 7 Brew visitors) also visited a Starbucks in the same period. Meanwhile, only 27.4% of Starbucks consumers went to Dunkin’ and 16.4% went to Dutch Bros during the analyzed period, with even smaller shares going to Scooter’s and 7 Brew. So while the smaller chains are clearly making inroads into the coffee market, Starbucks still commands a strong central position, attracting a majority of coffee-goers and enjoying significant loyalty.
Despite the ongoing expansion of Dutch Bros and the rise of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the U.S. coffee category.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Fueled by customer demand for quality, convenience, and value, CAVA and sweetgreen are cementing their place as leaders in the fast-casual space. The two chains have seen impressive growth over the past few years, adding new locations to keep up with growing demand.
We took a look at their performance over the years to see what might be driving their continued rise.
While the fast-casual dining sector as a whole experienced a slight slowdown in Q1 2025, likely driven by continued budgetary concerns among diners, CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving. The two chains are squarely in expansion mode – and their impressively elevated foot traffic numbers strongly suggest that customers are highly receptive to both chains’ offerings.
In Q1 2025, visits to CAVA were 19.8% higher than in Q1 2024, while Sweetgreen saw its visits increase by 11.1%. In contrast, the wider fast-casual space experienced a visit slowdown of 0.1% during the same period, serving as a reminder of the challenges facing the segment.
Diving into audience segmentation data for both chains provides greater insight into the expansion strategies underlying their strong performance in recent years.
CAVA, which grew from a single location in Maryland to 367 restaurants at the end of 2024, has employed a suburban-focused growth strategy that has brought the chain to a wider audience than ever. The median household income of CAVA’s trade areas has been steadily dropping over the years. And a closer look at shifts in the psychographic segments that make up its visitor base suggests that the chain is reaching new suburban audiences.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, CAVA steadily broadened its reach among the working and middle-class “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomers” consumer segments. During the same period, it also gained more traction with the affluent “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment – while holding on to its substantial share of “Wealthy Suburban Families.” This suggests that, even as CAVA expands its reach among a wider range of suburban visitors, it has maintained its core audience. While a substantial portion of wealthy customers remains, the chain has effectively opened itself up to a larger and more diverse pool of visitors.
Similarly, sweetgreen has also been increasing its presence in suburban markets. The chain, which leans heavily into automation to improve visitor experience, has made suburban expansion a cornerstone of its strategy – and examining the geographic data clearly demonstrates this shift.
In Q1 2022, 31.3% of sweetgreen’s trade areas were made up of consumer segment groups belonging to the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. But by Q1 2025, this share rose sharply, to 42.2%. Over the same period, the share of “Principal Urban Centers” in sweetgreen’s trade areas dropped from 50.0% to 26.8%.
CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving, seemingly driven by their pushes into suburban markets.
Will the two chains continue to experience visit growth as Q2 gets underway?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Despite its recent release, Sinners has already generated significant buzz with overwhelmingly positive early reviews and a box office performance likely to break records as the best performing R-rated April release ever. The movie has also helped movie theaters maintain their strong momentum created by the success of A Minecraft Movie.
When Captain America: Brave New World was released on February 14th 2025, the movie drove a 37.0% increase in movie theater visits relative to the YTD (January 6th to April 20th 2025) weekly average. But visits quickly fell following the release week, and movie theater traffic was down 31.1% compared to the YTD average two weeks later.
Meanwhile, A Minecraft Movie led to a 88.6% spike in visits relative to the YTD average on the week of its release, likely thanks to the significant advertising and promotional activities in anticipation of the opening. But traffic was already beginning to fall when Sinners opened on April 18th – and the supernatural thriller helped slow the visit drop: Visits were 13.1% lower over the week of April 7th – April 13th compared to the week of March 31st to April 6th, but only dropped 7.2% week-over-week during the week of the Sinners release, when movie theater traffic stayed 52.1% above YTD weekly visit levels.
Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) brands operate in a fast-paced industry of shifting consumer preferences, and palate-pleasing promotions are one of the ways QSRs drive traffic in the face of evolving demand for value and innovation. Using the latest location intelligence, we analyzed RBI, Yum! Brands, and other top QSRs, to explore their Q1 2025 performance and several promotions that had a significant foot traffic impact.
QSRs faced challenges in the early months of 2025, leading to a Q1 YoY foot traffic decline of 1.6% for the category as a whole. Analyzing the companies' domestic portfolios reveals that traffic to Yum! Restaurants increased 2.9% YoY, bolstered by Taco Bell’s strong performance, while RBI’s traffic fell 3.4% YoY. Wingstop experienced the greatest foot traffic growth of the QSRs analyzed (+4.3%) while Wendy’s saw the sharpest traffic declines (-4.6%).
Zooming in on weekly visits (since March 2025) highlights the foot traffic impact of several QSR promotions – which often cause fanfare during their initial launch.
KFC’s new bucket meal seems to have provided a YoY visit lift for the Yum! chain during the week of March 17th, while visits to Popeyes, an RBI chain, have remained elevated since the week of March 31st, likely due to the launch of the restaurant’s April Fools no-joke pickle menu. But it was Wingstop that stole the visit-spike show with a 22.9% YoY boost during the week of March 24th, 2025 – as eager customers flocked to the chain to redeem T-Mobile’s one-day-only $0.01 chicken tender reward.
And zooming in on daily visit fluctuations to Wingstop during Q1 2025 shows that the T-Mobile tender deal didn’t provide the only one-day visit boost. On Super Bowl Sunday (February 9th, 2025), Wingstop’s traffic was 56.8% above the daily average for Q1 2025, as wings were once again a party favorite.
Taco Bell’s Q1 2025 YoY foot traffic growth stood out among the analyzed QSRs, and diving into visitor frequency data shows that the chain has been attracting an increasing number of repeat visitors.
Between October 2024 and March 2025, the number of frequent visitors to Taco Bell – those who visited at least twice during the month – rose consistently YoY, even as the number of casual visitors decreased or rose only slightly. But in January 2025, Taco Bell saw a significant 11.7% YoY surge in frequent visitors – many of whom may have been attracted to the chain’s revamp of the Luxe Cravings Box to kick off the year.
Despite overall challenges in the QSR segment, strategic promotions contributed to significant foot traffic gains for several brands. Wingstop and Taco Bell were two of the biggest visit winners in Q1, highlighting the impact of both one-day deals and extended offers.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
Health and wellness remain significant drivers for grocery shoppers, and today we’re looking at two health-centric grocers – Sprouts Farmers Market and Natural Grocers. The two chains, which recently topped the “Best Natural Food Stores” list, are thriving, and both are planning further expansions in 2025.
We dug into the visit and demographic data to get a sense for how the chains are performing and what might be driving their success.
Sprouts Farmers Market has been a grocery store to watch in recent years. The Arizona-based chain added some 33 new locations over the past year, leading to a major surge in overall visits to the chain. In Q1 2025, visits to the grocer were 11.9% higher than they were in Q1 2024, with the average number of visits to each Sprouts location also increasing 4.2% YoY. In contrast, visits to the wider grocery space rose just 0.8% YoY.
Colorado-based Natural Grocers has also been thriving, with Q1 2025 visits up 5.9% YoY. And though Natural Grocers’ expansion has been slower than Sprouts', it too is gradually growing its store count – and its consistent over-performance shows that its offerings are meeting robust demand.
Diving into audience segmentation data offers insight into some of the factors contributing to the two chains’ success.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers attract relatively affluent visitor bases: In Q1 2025, visitors to Sprouts came from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $96.8K, considerably above the category average of $81.8K. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew visitors with a median HHI of $84.0K – lower than that of Sprouts, but still higher than the wider segment.
And each of the chains drew higher-than-average shares of both young professionals and a variety of affluent family segments – though Sprouts was more popular among wealthy families, while Natural Grocers attracted more upper-middle-class suburban families.
In a grocery market defined by trading down and intensified competition from low-cost outlets such as dollar stores and superstores, specialty chains like Sprouts and Natural Grocers may benefit from their ability to attract health-focused, higher-income shoppers and busy professionals.
Beyond demographics, each chain occupies a distinct geographic niche. In Q1 2025, 49.3% of visitors to Sprouts came from the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew just 39.9% from these areas, just slightly above the sector-wide average.
Meanwhile, Natural Grocers drew a much larger share of shoppers from “Metro Cities” – defined as smaller metropolitan or satellite city areas – than either Sprouts or the wider grocery space.
This variance suggests that the two health-centric grocers play complementary roles within the food shopping space, allowing both to maximize relevance among their respective customer bases.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers are experiencing visit growth and success – in part by catering to busy professionals and different groups of affluent consumers. As the two chains continue to expand, will they be able to sustain their appeal to distinct customer segments?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven grocery and retail insights.
Following a second bankruptcy filing, JOANN recently announced a complete shutdown of its fleet. Using location analytics, we uncovered the foot traffic trends behind JOANN’s unraveling and pinpointed retailers that stand to gain from its exit from the arts and crafts space.
JOANN found success during the pandemic, as many consumers stuck at home took on new crafting hobbies. During the second half of 2020, visits to JOANN were consistently above the January 2019 baseline.
But in recent years, the retailer has struggled to sustain its momentum. Since February 2021, visits have remained below pre-pandemic levels – with even the chain’s annual holiday season visit boosts remaining below those seen in Q4 2019. Overall in 2024, visits to JOANN were down 4.4% compared to 2019.
And since announcing that it would be conducting liquidation sales in late February 2025, visits to JOANN have soared as consumers take advantage of final deals on crafting supplies.
Several factors have contributed to JOANN’s decline, including competition from e-commerce and superstores. Analysis of cross-visitation trends for visitors to JOANN reveals that between 2019 and 2024, the share of the retailer’s visitors that also visited Walmart increased from 90.2% to 92.4%, while the share of visitors to Target rose from 80.8% to 83.2%. This indicates that JOANN has faced growing pressure from big-box chains encroaching on JOANN’s market share in the crafting space.
The largest players in the arts and crafts space – Hobby Lobby and Michaels – also appear to have grown their market share at the expense of JOANN, and stand to gain even more from the retailer’s departure.
Both Hobby Lobby and Michaels have emerged as increasingly popular destinations for JOANN shoppers over the past several years: In 2024 49.9% of JOANN visitors frequented a Michaels, while 49.1% visited a Hobby Lobby – up from less than 45% for both chains in 2019.
And analysis of the median household incomes (HHIs) of the three specialty retailers’ 2024 captured trade areas reveals that JOANN attracted more affluent visitors than Hobby Lobby but lower-HHI visitors than Michaels. This suggests that in the absence of JOANN, the chain’s wealthier shoppers may gravitate towards Michaels while its lower-income shoppers may more naturally turn to Hobby Lobby.
Location analytics illuminate the challenges JOANN faced in a competitive market. The increasing overlap in visitation with major retailers like Walmart and Target underscores the intense pressure from superstores. Simultaneously, the growing shared customer base with specialty competitors Michaels and Hobby Lobby suggests a migration of JOANN's audiences.
For more insights anchored in location analytics, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
