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There are so many ways to say Happy New Year in Asian languages, such as “Gong Xi Fa Cai” in Mandarin, which means wishing you prosperity in the coming year, “Saehae Bok Mani Badeuseyo” in Korean, wishing you lots of luck, and “Chuc mung nam moi” in Vietnamese, with a similar meaning of wishing you a joyful year. Along with these auspicious greetings are traditional foods such as dumpling soup, mung bean pancake, BBQ beef, sticky rice cakes, and candied fruits. Within the melting pot that is the USA, one can often find an Asian-themed shopping center in which to partake of the festivities. In Westminster, CA, Asian Garden Mall is one of the largest Vietnamese shopping centers in the U.S. At The Source OC, Korean shops and eateries abound. In the Midwest, one can visit Asia Mall Minnesota, with a pan-Asian panoply of offerings.
Last year, Lunar New Year kicked off on Jan. 22, and we can see that Asian Garden Mall visits skyrocketed on that day (below)
During the summer, there is also a vibrant night market there, open from 7-11pm on the weekends. Finds include pork skewers and buns, grilled scallops, mini shrimp crepes, and sugar cane juice.
The night market takes place in the parking lot of Asian Garden Mall and draws accretive business. What would normally be empty during the Feb-May period without a night market becomes a thriving evening adventure during the summer months.
In comparing Feb-May visits (blue) versus Jun-Sept visits (red) below, the mall also draws from a much larger trade area when the night market is occurring.
In terms of festivities, parades and food stalls abound at celebrations like the Tet festival in New Orleans, which takes place this year on Feb. 16-18 in the Village de l’Est neighborhood. There will be fireworks and a dragon dance and of course vats of simmering pho, crispy spring rolls, and puffy fried bananas. In San Jose, CA, home to one of the US’s largest Vietnamese populations, a Tet celebration will be held in the former Sears parking lot at Eastridge Center from Feb 16-18. There will be a talent contest, a visit from Miss Vietnam California, carnival rides, and of course plenty of food booths and desserts.
One of the newer Korean-themed malls is the Source OC, which opened in 2019. While the majority of the food options transport you to being in Korea, there is also Italian at Il Fiora, Japanese at Izakaya Ichie, and Mexican at La Huasteca. One can indulge in Gangnam House Korean BBQ, Monday to Sunday shaved ice, and Cheesetella Japanese Cheesecake. We saw the Source OC dip during Covid like practically all retail, but it has bounced back and is now exceeding pre-Covid visitation levels. Besides the draw of the food, there is also an indoor golf-simulator, a VR experience, and a children’s playground.
Both Koreatown Plaza and Koreatown Galleria are long-standing stalwarts in the heart of LA, but as Americans of all ethnicities increasingly migrate to suburbs, we will no doubt see more shopping center options catering to ethnic tastes outside of downtowns.
The nation’s first enclosed shopping mall was Southdale Center in Edina, MN, a project that opened in 1956, by Victor Gruen, an Austrian-American who would henceforth be known as the “father of the shopping mall.” His original vision was a community hub with access to many shops as well as medical centers, schools, and even residences. This did not occur in the 50s, but three-quarters of a century later, many mall developers are re-envisioning malls to be places to live, eat, play, and shop as well as have access to essential services and to be that third space for community gatherings and celebrations. How fitting that another recent mall in Minnesota, the Asia Mall has been conceived as a reflection of the local community. It opened in November 2022, inspired by the desire for a one-stop pan-Asian mall to get all groceries as opposed to dashing around Minneapolis, St. Paul, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center to obtain the desired goods. Food and drinks are procured from various Asian countries, such as Vietnam, China, and Korea and anchored by grocery store Asian Mart 88. Dining includes Pho Mai, Hot Pot City with all-you-can-eat hot pot, Cruncheez Korean hot dogs, and Mochi Dough doughnuts. As part of the trend for including essential services, this mall also has a hair salon, insurance company, and travel agency.
It also appears the concept of one-stop-shop, be it for Asian groceries or for warehouse-sized purchases, is prized by the inhabitants of Eden Prairie who really value efficiency. Asia Mall does half the visits of the nearby Costco, which is impressive. Besides home and work, visitors of Asia Mall are most likely to visit Costco before or after a shopping trip (below).
How did off-price leaders T.J. Maxx, Marshalls (both owned by TJX Companies), Burlington, and Ross perform in last year? And how is 2024 shaping up for the category? We dove into the foot traffic data to find out.
Off-price apparel retailers typically employ a straightforward method: sell excess or off-season merchandise that would otherwise remain unsold at a discount, benefiting both shoppers and manufacturers.
This retail model has consistently performed well, as evidenced by the consistent growth in visits to T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington over the past few years. And despite the overall sluggishness experienced by much of the apparel retail category in 2023, visits to these stores continued to increase year-over-year (YoY) in every quarter analyzed.
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January 2024 YoY visit growth slowed slightly – perhaps due to Q1 2023’s exceptionally strong performance. But despite the difficult comparison, foot traffic for most chains remained close to 2023 levels while YoY January visits to Ross increased 5.5%, highlighting the resilience of the off-price sector.
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The demographic and psychographic makeup of a chain’s trade area – which shows the types of visitors who frequent the chain – can be determined by looking at the chain’s potential or captured market. A chain’s potential market is calculated by weighing the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visits to the chain according to the size of the CBG, while the captured market weighs each CBG according to the relative number of visits to the chain originating from that CBG.
Using these tools to analyze the median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of the four chains reveals a divergence between the two TJX-owned chains T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, on one side, and Ross Dress for Less and Burlington, on the other. The median HHI in T.J. Maxx and Marshalls’ potential market is higher than the potential median HHI for Ross and Burlington – and the two TJX brands’ captured market median HHI is even higher. Meanwhile, the median HHI in Ross and Burlington’s captured market is lower than the median HHI in their own potential markets.
The variance in median HHI between the chains may have to do with differences in branding and product selection. Marshalls and T.J. Maxx tend to have the higher price points, with T.J. Maxx in particular expanding its designer offerings over the past few years through its Runway stores. Ross and Burlington, known for their no-frills approach to clothing shopping, have relatively lower price points – and may see more customers seeking bargains over high fashion.
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While an analysis of trade area median HHI highlights differences between the chains’ visitor bases, a deeper exploration of Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington’s trade areas suggests that the retailers also share common ground – specifically, their popularity with middle-income families. For almost all brands, the captured market share of households categorized by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “Family Union” and “Cultural Connections” was larger than the potential market share. T.J. Maxx, which had a slightly lower share of “Cultural Connection” households in its captured market relative to its potential market, was the sole exception.
All four chains continue to add stores to their fleets – Ross opened 97 stores in fiscal 2023, and Burlington is looking to expand in over 60 former Bed Bath and Beyond locations. Focusing on trade areas with diverse families, then, may serve Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington. And T.J. Maxx, which has been enjoying a resurgence of interest from younger shoppers, might consider expanding into areas that attract young professionals.
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Off-price apparel retailers continue to succeed despite – or perhaps because of – a challenging economic climate. Will their success continue into 2024?
Visit placer.ai to keep up-to-date on the latest data-driven retail trends.
With shopping center vacancy rates now lower than they were pre-COVID, we dove into the demographic and psychographic trade area data for leading Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls to understand who visited malls in 2023.
Diving into the demographics of the trade areas of the various mall types in 2023 reveal both similarities and differences between the typical visitor to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls.
In all three mall types, the median trade area household income (HHI) in the three mall types was higher than the nationwide median HHI of $69.5K (according to the STI: Popstats 2022 dataset). But Open-Air Shopping Centers drew the highest income visitors, with a trade area median HHI of $87.8K in 2023. The trade area of Open-Air Shopping Centers also had the lowest share of Households with Children and the highest share of singles (One-Person and Non-Family Households).
Outlet Malls lay at the other end of the spectrum, with a trade area median trade HHI of $73.9K, the highest share of Households with Children, and the lowest share of single households. And the median HHI and household composition for the trade area of Indoor Malls stood between those of the other two types.
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Even though Outlet Malls tend to draw the highest, and Open-Air Shopping Centers draw the lowest share of family visitors (Households with Children), diving deeper into various family segments reveals a more nuanced picture.
For example, the trade areas of Outlet Malls do indeed contain the highest shares of the “Family Union” and “Promising Families” segments – defined by Experian: Mosaic as blue-collar families and young families in starter homes, respectively. But Open-Air Shopping Centers tend to draw the highest share of the more affluent “Flourishing Families” segment – perhaps thanks to the Open-Air Shopping Centers’ higher trade area median HHI.
So while the demographic analysis can provide an overall snapshot of the various mall types’ audience, diving into the psychographics can yield a higher-resolution picture of the types of shoppers frequenting each shopping center category.
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For the most part, malls – especially Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers – succeeded in exceeding or staying close to 2022 visit levels last year, despite the economic headwinds. And while January data indicates that the space may be entering a challenging period, there are plenty of reasons to think that the dip in early 2024 foot traffic is just a temporary setback driven by a unique set of circumstances. As the year continues to unfold, tracking visits in this sector will offer more insights into the state of the 2024 consumer.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
When we last checked in with the home improvement category, high interest rates and a cooling housing market had impacted visits to retailers The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply. As 2024 gets underway, what might lie ahead for these chains? We take a look at the data to find out.
Home Depot and Lowe’s, two of the largest home improvement retailers in the country, command a significant share of the industry. The two chains experienced ups and downs over the past few years, from a pandemic-era spike in visits to a more recent slowdown as rising prices and slowing home sales led many would-be shoppers to rethink a renovation.
The turbulence in the Home Improvement space continued in 2023. In the first half of the year, foot traffic to The Home Depot and Lowe’s showed modest increases on a year-over-year (YoY) basis – but that momentum slowed into the years’ second half as home sales dropped to a six-month low.
Visit performance to these retailers may well improve in 2024. Should home sales pick up as mortgage rates continue on their expected downward trajectory, home improvement chains would likely see an increase in visits as new homeowners grab equipment for renovations.
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Analyzing median household income (HHI) of visitors to The Home Depot and Lowe’s, segmented by potential and captured markets, may provide insights into The Home Depot's stronger year-over-year foot traffic performance. (A chain's potential market looks at the Census Block Groups (CBGs) where visitors to a chain originate, weighted according to the CBG’s population. In contrast, captured market visit data reflects figures weighted by the actual number of visits from each CBG.)
The trade area median HHI tends to be higher for Home Depot than for Lowe’s in the chains’ potential markets – and the differences grow even more pronounced when analyzing the captured market. The Home Depot’s potential market median HHI stood at $71.5K/year – just slightly higher than Lowe’s $69.6K/year. But The Home Depot’s captured market median HHI was $74.3K/year in 2023 – around 4% higher than the chain’s potential market median HHI. Meanwhile, Lowe’s captured market median HHI of $69.0K/year was around 1% lower than its potential market median HHI.
The income disparity between the visitor bases of the two chains may provide context for The Home Depot’s foot traffic strength compared to Lowe’s – The Home Depot’s wealthier customers may be more insulated from the effects of inflation. And as inflation eases and demand for home renovations creeps up, Lowe’s may yet see visits tick up as its customers return to the chain.
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Tractor Supply Co. – another major home improvement chain – also offers a variety of products geared toward farm and ranch living, including animal feed and farm equipment. The company was a surprising pandemic winner, seeing its sales and foot traffic grow significantly as people moved to the countryside.
The chain's popularity has remained strong even as the pandemic-induced migration trends subside and the influx of city-dwellers to rural areas slows down. Visits to Tractor Supply remained consistently high throughout 2023, with only two months experiencing YoY foot traffic lags. Tractor Supply visits also outpaced visits to the home improvement category as a whole, indicating sustained demand for farm products.
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A deeper exploration of the three home improvement chains’ psychographic compositions indicates that Tractor Supply’s popularity with rural segments (as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) may be fueling some of its sustained visit success.
All three chains saw a higher share of rural visitors in their captured market compared to their potential market – indicating that rural consumers are particularly interested in home improvement tools and products. And of the three chains, Tractor Supply served the largest share of rural visitors by far. The share of rural audience segments in Tractor Supply’s potential markets significantly exceeded the share of these segments in the trade areas of Lowe’s and The Home Depot’s, and the relative share of rural segments in Tractor Supply’s captured market was even more impressive.
Lowe’s, which has bolstered its rural presence over the past year, had the second-highest percentage of rural segments in both its potential and captured markets – although its share of rural visitors was still considerably lower than Tractor Supply’s.
Meanwhile, The Home Depot saw the smallest share of rural visitors across all rural segments analyzed. The company’s captured market had just slightly more Rural High Income and Rural Low Income visitors relative to its potential market, and there was no difference between its captured and potential market shares of Rural Average Income consumers.
The impressive over-representation of rural customers to Lowe’s and Tractor Supply suggest that the rural potential for home improvement chains is significant – and chains that tap into the segment may see further foot traffic to their stores.
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The home improvement space has seen plenty of variance over the past few years, from the pandemic-fueled DIY highs of 2020 and 2021 to the overall slowdown brought on by inflation in 2023. Will visits begin to pick up again into 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog for the latest data-driven retail insights.
How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out.
The superstore and wholesale space performed well across the board in 2023, with leading retailers seeing consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth throughout the year. Costco led the pack in terms of overall YoY visit performance, followed by Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. The wholesale clubs’ strength may be due in part to the chains’ attractive gas prices, which were likely particularly tempting to 2023 consumers looking to stretch their budget.
Visits to Target also remained above the chain’s 2022 baseline during all four quarters, and Walmart – which closed several stores last year – mostly beat its 2022 visit performance, with the exception of Q4 where traffic remained essentially on par with last year’s levels.
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Visits to four out of five of the analyzed superstores and wholesale clubs dipped slightly in January 2024 relative to January 2023, perhaps due to comparisons to a strong Q1 2023 performance or to post-holidays consumer cutbacks. But despite the challenging circumstances, the YoY drops remained minimal – so the softer start to the year is not necessarily an indication of things to come.
And in contrast to the subdued visit performance in the rest of the category, Costco foot traffic exceeded its January 2023 visit baseline – revealing the potential for the superstore space to grow in a positive direction in 2024.
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Analyzing monthly visits to leading superstore and wholesale clubs in 2023 compared to each chain’s monthly visit average reveals different consumer patterns for each brand.
While all chains saw their monthly visits peak in December, Target experienced the most significant holiday peak, with a 33.9% increase in monthly visits compared to its 2023 monthly average – more than double the increases of the other four chains analyzed. Target also saw the strongest August visit growth relative to its 2023 monthly average as parents and students likely flocked to the chain in search of Back-to-School apparel and supplies.
In June and July, Walmart’s relative visit growth exceeded that of the other four chains – possible thanks to consumers stocking up on summer supplies. And the wholesale clubs saw larger relative increases in November, as those chains’ bulk grocery offerings may have helped consumers shop for a crowd ahead of Thanksgiving dinner.
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The trade areas of all five chains analyzed included a higher share of Households with Children when compared to the nationwide average. But the two superstore brands – Walmart and Target – also had larger percentages of 1-Person and Non-Family (roommate) Households when compared to the nationwide average, while the three wholesale clubs had smaller shares.
So while average wholesale clubs and their large selection of bulk packaged items cater primarily to families, superstores seem to attract a wider range of shoppers, including consumers shopping for one and living alone or with roommates.
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Diving into the psychographic composition of the trade areas highlights additional differences between the various chains’ audiences.
The trade areas of Walmart and of its subsidiary Sam’s Club had the highest share of Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s small town and rural audience segments, including “Small Town Low Income,” “Rural Low Income,” “Rural Average Income,” and “Rural High Income.”
Suburban segments were more distributed. Walmart and Sam’s Club served a higher share of “Blue Collar Suburbs” while Target and Costco drew more “Wealthy Suburban Families” – and BJ’s Wholesale Club received the largest percentage of “Upper Suburban Diverse Families.”
BJ’s trade area also included the largest shares of almost all the urban segments with the exception of “Educated Urbanites” – defined by Spatial.ai as “well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs” – for which Target came out on top.
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The leading superstore and wholesale clubs performed well in 2023 as consumers relied on their bulk-packaging and value-pricing to stretch their increasingly strained budgets.
What does 2024 have in store? Visit the placer.ai blog to find out.
It only comes around once every 12 years, and for those born in the Year of the Dragon, they are considered to be the luckiest of the Zodiac signs. This year’s element is wood, and thus a Wood Dragon year can portend good fortune, action, and expansion. Let’s take a look at some Asian concepts, brands, and shopping centers and see if our Placer trends indicate whether they might be in for a lucky, powerful year.
Tea drinks, especially those including tapioca pearls otherwise known as boba have created billionaires in China, and global expansion means that you can get your fill of the chewy goodies all over the world nowadays. Some of the largest chains in the US include Kung Fu Tea, with over 350 locations; Gong Cha; Sharetea with more than 500 stores in 15 locations; Boba Guys known for their famous strawberry puree matcha tea latte; and It’s Boba Time, Happy Lemon, YiFang Taiwan Fruit Tea, and Boba Loca.
Tea has been an integral part of our global history. As a precious commodity, it was traded along the Silk Road, leading to increased transcontinental commerce. In American history, the Boston Tea Party was perhaps not so much about tea itself but about taxation and representation, but in any words, it was definitely a catalyst towards American independence. And now, thousands of years later, tea continues to be a tour de force for antioxidants, anti-aging, and an overall delicious base for a bevy of creative drinks. Economists often talk about the “latte index” - used to estimate purchasing power parity in 16 countries around the world compared to the cost of a tall Starbucks latte in NYC.
With the way things are going with teas, could a boba index not be far behind? We examined year-over-year traffic for some of the leading tea/boba chains compared to specialty coffee chains. Boba has seen gains compared to last year, usually at a higher percentage than coffee. Both beverage type chains have trended upwards in 2023, although coffee had a bit of a dip in the latter part of the year.
To be fair, one can often order a coffee at a tea store and vice versa, but there are certainly toppings and color sensations at tea stores that are uniquely suited to social media, such as butterfly pea, which is an intense shade of violet, or various vibrant toppings such as popping boba in pink and orange. In some creations, the tea is even dispensed with entirely, such as Tiger Sugar’s brown sugar boba milk with a deep caramel flavor, or their highly-coveted ice cream bar version of the drink.
For those wishing for an authentic taste of an Asian shopping mall experience during Lunar New Year, there are many options around the US including Chinese shopping malls in the west like Focus Plaza/San Gabriel Square in San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Jamboree in Irvine, Shanghai Plaza in Chinatown Las Vegas, and Great Wall Mall in Kent, WA as well as in the east like Tangram and New World Mall in Flushing, NY.
Of these malls, Diamond Jamboree is the most visited. It has local favorites like The Kickin' Crab, Hai Di Lao, and Pepper Lunch. For dessert, head on over to Meet Fresh, with its refreshing grass jelly or chewy taro balls or SomiSomi for the cutest fish-shaped pancakes and a delectable choice of soft-serve flavors like ube and sesame.
Next is Shanghai Plaza, which is located in Las Vegas Chinatown. At Shanghai Taste, one can slurp xiao long bao soup dumplings, and another favorite - sheng jian bao - which is basically the love child of the more well known bao zi (meat bun) and the aforementioned xiao long bao. Somehow, it manages to have the fluffiness of the outer dough with a burst of soup and filling inside. Add the slight crunchiness of a pan-fried base and your mouth will be amazed by the variety of flavors and textures.
San Gabriel Square, also known as Focus Plaza, is the granddaddy of San Gabriel Valley larger-than-life malls. Also lovingly named “Chinese Disneyland” it offers a famous restaurant Five Star Seafood, a 99 Ranch, as well as other restaurants and jewelry stores. It opened in 1990 and became the place where one could go to buy laserdiscs for karaoke machines, as well as buy delicacies like honey-dried mangoes or salted plums. Nearly 25 years later, it is poised for renovation as it competes with other Chinese malls in the Greater Los Angeles and Orange County area for hot new restaurants and bakeries.
Moving across the country, we have Tangram in Queens, NY. Who doesn’t love an Asian food hall, with its dizzying array of hawkers, smells, and bustle? Tangram opened its Food Hall in January 2023, with a mix of international cuisine such as Joju for Vietnamese sandwiches, Zaab Zaab for Thai food, and Na Tart for egg tarts. One unique offering at Xi’an Famous Food is their piece de resistance lamb noodles. Topped with melt-in-your-mouth lamb, the broth is composed of both cumin and chili, and the hand-pulled noodles offer you that perfect texture referred to as “qq” in Chinese, whose closest renditions for noodles in another language might be “al dente.” This food hall spans 24,000 square feet and is lit with neon to mimic the non-stop night market energy in cosmopolitan Asian cities.
Great Wall Mall in Kent, Seattle is another Pan-Asian shopping center, despite its Chinese-centric name. Anchored by a 99 Ranch market, it also includes Chinese and Vietnamese restaurants, a Korean clothing store, hair and nail salons, and home decor. Architecturally, the outside is flanked by a fortress-style wall that mimics the Great Wall of China.
Last, but not least, we have New World Mall. Another sprawling food hall awaits, with over two dozen eateries to choose from. The exciting part of visiting food halls is the ability to get to the level of regional cuisine. Whether its Chongqing xiao mian featuring spicy Sichuan noodles or knife-cut noodles from Lanzhou, one has the opportunity to try a variety of cooking styles, nuances in similar-sounding dishes, and basically explore an entire country through its diversity of tastes.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
