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This year’s March Madness really lived up to its name, buoyed by the star power of Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, Paige Bueckers, and Juju Watkins driving viewership to new heights. For the first time in history, the NCAA women’s basketball title drew more viewers than the men’s at 18.9M for the women’s and 14.8M for the men’s, per Nielsen.
Tickets to the Final Four cost $532 on average, an 82% increase over last year, and for the championship game, Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse Stadium in Cleveland, OH was packed to the gills.
In the days leading up to the women’s final, nearby hotels saw visits increase as well.
Last week, we took a look at where the retail sector stood after Q1 2024, with a focus on superstores, home improvement, athletic footwear and apparel, and beauty. This week, to mark the release of short visit data with Placer’s Data Version 2.0 (which better captures visits that lasted 1 minute or longer for QSR/drive-thru locations) and the publishing of our latest dining whitepaper (The QSR Dining Advantage), we thought we’d take closer look at where the restaurant sector stands after Q1 2024.
When we looked at the restaurant category in January, most chains were reporting that visits were down on a year-over-year basis (which was partly a byproduct of inclement weather across much of the country) but that there was a sense of optimism about 2024. Looking at trends by category, we see that operators were justified in this optimism, as visit trends have increased on a year-over-year basis for most categories since late January. After adjusting for calendar shifts for both Valentine’s Day and Easter, we also see strong fine dining visits for these holidays, indicating that consumers remain motivated by holiday and events (a theme we called out several times last year).
We’ve also been fielding several questions about daypart shifts given that the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index (an index of data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country) continued to show an uptick in visits during March 2024 and now stands at about 67.3% of March 2019 visits. Below, we show the percentage of visits by daypart for quick-service restaurant (QSR) and full-service restaurant chains. Given the lift in office visits, it’s not surprising that we continue to see improvement in early morning (6:00 AM-9:00 AM) visits, but it’s notable that we continue to see strength in late morning (9:00 AM-12:00 PM) and afternoon (3:00 PM-6:00 PM) visits. We’ve already seen many QSR chains test new menu items that better address consumer preferences in these dayparts–McDonald's CosMc’s is just one example--and we’d expect more in the months ahead. We also continue to see strength in late night QSR visits, something that we’ve called out in the past. On the full-service dining front, we see 2023 visits still down compared to 2019 levels, but with improvement versus 2021 in most cases. Here, it’s interesting that the afternoon visits to full-service dining chains in 2023 is down only slightly compared to 2019, while the gap during the evening daypart is much wider. This reinforces some of our previous analyses on earlier dining times
With our Data Version 2.0 update, we can now more accurately monitor dwell time by restaurant channel. After bottoming-out in Q2 2020 as most chains shifted to a largely takeout model, we’ve seen dwell time steadily increase across most restaurant channels the past several years. The QSR and fast casual categories remain below pre-pandemic levels, which isn’t a surprise given an increase in drive-thru and takeout orders compared to 2019 levels. Still, some of the operators we’ve spoken to have indicated that drive-thru bottlenecks have become more of an issue in recent quarters, which may reflect in the increase in dwell times for the QSR category the past 4-5 quarters. On the other side of the spectrum, dwell time for casual dining chains has fully recovered. We believe this has been helped by the continued popularity of eatertainment concepts, which have almost twice the average dwell time as most casual dining chains. We also see that fine dining dwell time now exceeds pre-pandemic levels, which may be the result of consumers’ aforementioned focus on holiday/event dining, which tends to drive dwell times higher.
Restaurant chains still face obstacles–the spread between food at home (grocery prices) and food away from home (restaurant prices) remains high and the $20 minimum wage for QSR workers recently went into effect in California (our data does not indicate major visit changes going into effect as it may be too recent for behavioral changes to be noticeable). However, March and early April visitation trends help the optimism that many restaurant operators felt at the beginning of the year. With Panera (and other chains) evaluating a possible IPO and many other brands finally accelerating growth plans (with an increased emphasis on higher-growth markets in the Southern/Southeastern U.S.), we’d expect visitation trends to remain positive on a year-over-year basis in the months to come.
Say the word New Mexico and one might picture the stunning cliff dwellings at Bandelier Monument, rich troves of Native American Pueblo culture, or the stunning artworks of Georgia O’Keefe. This vibrant state’s largest city is Albuquerque, but Santa Fe also lays claim to fame by being the oldest state capital in the United States.
In Albuquerque, a large development is taking place centered around the Indian Pueblo Cultural Center. While one may be a bit surprised at its location, which is within an outdoor shopping center, it serves as a perfect anchoring point for a convention or a leisure trip. The museum features insights into 19 Pueblo cultures, and also hosts an authentic Indian kitchen where one can try indigenous favorites such as red chile beef stew, calabacitas, and assorted fruit pies. There is a Holiday Inn Express & Suites and a Towneplace Suites by Marriott just across the street for those who need accommodations. Meetings, parties, and events can be held onsite with particularly memorable experiences to be had in the outdoor arena and fire pit. One can even hold a wedding at the venue. And in a sign of the convenience store trend we are seeing towards localization, Four Winds offers a walk-in humidor with cigar selection, the ability to fill a growler with local craft beers, and an assortment of food, beer, wine, liquor, and tobacco.
Further afield, an hour away in Santa Fe, visitors flock to the galleries galore, restaurants and bars like Coyote Cantina, or simply enjoy an ice cream while people watching at Santa Fe Plaza. One of the highlights for opera lovers around the world is coming to Santa Fe Opera House during its season, which runs from the end of June to the end of August. Here, one can enjoy the unique open-air aspect of the opera house while sobbing along to the sad fate of Violetta in La Traviata.
Junior Rangers might enjoy exploring Carlsbad Caverns, Aztec Ruins National Monument, or venture to Petroglyph National Monument. Adults seeking R&R can ski the day away in Taos or opt for a therapeutic visit to Ojo Caliente Mineral Springs Resort & Spa. A review of the resort describes it as “Just you, the blue New Mexico sky, peace and quiet.” Add to that a massage or spa treatment, and it sounds like just what the doctor ordered.
One of the major employers in New Mexico is Los Alamos National Laboratory. A visit to the National Historic Park there will take you on an intriguing journey of key sites that were relevant to the Manhattan Project. Between last summer’s Oppenheimer blockbuster and current global sensation The Three-Body Problem fanning interest in cutting-edge science, this is a must-see location.
Albertsons Companies is one of the largest grocers in the country, with around 20 grocery banners in its portfolio boasting around 2,200 stores in 34 states. Aside from its eponymous brand, Albertsons, the company owns major chains like Safeway and Vons, as well as smaller regional banners.
With Q1 2024 under wraps, we take a closer look at visit trends to some of Albertsons Companies’ main banners, examine the top-performing chains by state, and dive into the demographics in the company’s two largest markets.
Diving into 2023’s visits shows that the company’s eight major banners – Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, ACME Markets, Shaw's Supermarket, United Supermarkets, and Tom Thumb – enjoyed year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every quarters of the year. Visits to Jewel-Osco, and Shaw’s Supermarket were particularly elevated, with Q4 2023 visits YoY up 5.8%, and 5.9%, respectively.
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Albertsons Companies’ positive performance has continued in 2024. Visits to most of the chains remained positive YoY in January despite the chilling retail impact of early 2024’s arctic blast, and all banners saw significant growth in February and March.
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Albertsons Companies is headquartered in Boise, Idaho, and its eponymous banner is highly popular in the western United States. But the company has also gained a foothold in the South, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast – and solidified its dominance in the West – through several successful mergers.
The company’s strategy of acquiring regional channels means that most states now have an Albertsons Companies’ banner catering to local grocery shoppers. Nationwide, the company’s most visited chains are Albertsons and Safeway – likely due to the sheer number of locations – but regional chains like Tom Thumb in Texas and Jewel-Osco in the Midwest are still the reigning Albertsons Companies banners in their areas.
California and Texas, the country's two most populous states, also boast the highest number of Albertsons Companies-owned grocery chains. Analyzing the demographic differences between the trade areas of the top three Albertsons Companies banners in each of the two states shows how the company leverages its banner variety to reach a larger audience.
According to the STI:Popstats 2023 dataset, the median household income (HHI) in Texas is $75.9K. Two of the top three Albertsons Companies’ banners in the state had a trade area median HHI below the Texas statewide median – United Supermarkets at $58.7K/year, and Albertsons at $68.3K/year – while Tom Thumb drew visitors from neighborhoods with a median HHI of $99.5K. And in California, although all three most visited Albertsons Companies banners drew visitors from neighborhoods with a median income above the statewide median, the trade area HHI also exhibited a range – from $99.2K/year for Albertsons to $115.0K/year for Safeway.
The variance in median HHI by banner and state highlights the benefit of operating grocery banners that can attract a range of shoppers from all along the income scale. By offering shopping options that cater to shoppers of all kinds, Albertsons Companies can hope to maximize its market reach and attract a diverse array of consumers.
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Albertsons Companies has set up shop across the country and offers a wide range of shoppers multiple grocery experiences across regions and price points. Will its grocery banners continue to see elevated foot traffic into 2024?
Visit placer.ai to stay on top of the latest grocery developments.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Shopping centers are making a comeback. Following an unusually cold January that impacted retail visit trends across the country, mall visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in February 2024 and rose even higher in March: Last month, traffic to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls was up 9.7%, 10.1%, and 10.7% respectively, compared to March 2023.
The positive visitation trends along with the rising consumer sentiment numbers capping off the first quarter of 2024 bode well for retail in general and discretionary categories in particular – and may signal the end of the retail challenges that plagued much of 2022 and 2023.
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Comparing Q1 visits to malls in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 to Q1 2019 further highlights the positive trajectory of the ongoing mall recovery. The data reveals that the pre-pandemic visit gap has been steadily narrowing over the past four years across all shopping center formats. And in Q1 2024, visits to Open-Air Shopping Centers even exceeded 2019 levels for the first time since the lockdowns – indicating that retail has not yet fully settled into a “new normal” and the post-COVID recovery story is still being written.
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But even as mall visit numbers may be returning to pre-pandemic levels, analyzing the visitor journey for malls in Q1 2019 and Q1 2023 – which looks at where mall visitors were directly before and after their mall visit – indicates that some mall-based shopping habits have shifted.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, the share of shoppers coming to a mall directly from home or returning home directly following the mall visit decreased. And during the same period, the share of mall visitors coming from or going to dining venues or other retail locations before or after a mall visit generally increased across mall formats. The change in visitor journey between 2019 and 2024 indicates that more consumers are now visiting malls as one of multiple stops within a larger outing.
The fact that consumers are still visiting malls, even if they are no longer treating shopping centers like a one-stop-shop can be seen as another testament of malls’ resilience: Despite the string of big-name retailers expanding off-mall in recent years, shoppers continue incorporating malls into their shopping and dining routines – even as they expand their outing to add stops to off-mall shopping or dining locations as well.
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Despite the years of mall apocalypse predictions, consumer behavior continues to showcase the central role that malls play in the U.S. retail landscape. And even as consumer habits change, top shopping centers have proven capable at adapting their offerings to current consumer appetites to maintain their relevance in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Is return-to-office picking up steam?
Last month, location intelligence indicated that the office recovery needle was starting to move once again. Whether due to stricter corporate mandates – especially in the finance sector – or to employees seeking to reap the rewards of in-person collaboration and mentoring, office activity appeared to be on an upswing.
But what’s happened since then? Has the momentum worn off, or is RTO still trending on the ground?
Hybrid work may be here to stay – but the situation on the ground remains very much in flux. Last month, office visits nationwide were just 32.7% below what they were in March 2019 (pre-pandemic). This represents a significant narrowing of the visit gap in relation to March 2022 and March 2023 – when visits were down 48.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
And comparing monthly visits to a March 2022 baseline shows that visits last month were among the highest they’ve been since COVID. Only August 2023 (which had two more working days than March) and October 2023 featured higher visitation rates.
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Drilling down into the data for eleven major cities nationwide shows that Miami and New York are holding firmly onto their regional RTO leads – with less than a 20% visit gap compared to pre-pandemic levels. And RTO appears likely to continue apace in both cities, driven by tech companies in Miami and finance firms in the Big Apple. Indeed, in Miami, visits to office buildings in March 2024 were the highest they’ve been in four years. Washington, D.C., Dallas, Atlanta, and Denver also outperformed the nationwide baseline compared to pre-COVID, while Chicago, Boston, Houston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco lagged behind.
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But despite bringing up the rear for overall post-COVID office recovery, San Francisco has been experiencing outsize YoY office visit growth for some time now. And in March 2024, the city continued to lead the regional YoY visit recovery pack – tied for first place with Washington, D.C.
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Given San Francisco’s stubbornly large post-COVID visit gap, it may come as no surprise that the city’s office vacancy rate is higher than it’s ever been. But demand for office space in San Francisco is back on the rise, leading market observers to conclude that bright times may be ahead for the local market.
San Francisco’s strong YoY office visit performance may be a reflection of this increased demand, providing another sign of good things to come in the Golden Gate city.
Remote work carries plenty of benefits, but a variety of factors – from Gen Z work-from-home fatigue to the better wages and opportunities available to on-site employees – are driving increased office attendance. And if March 2024 data is any indication, further shifts in the RTO/WFH balance may yet be in the cards.
For more data-driven return-to-office updates, follow Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
