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Arrowhead Towne Centre in Glendale, AZ recently opened the newest family fun entertainment center with both a ROUND1 Bowling & Arcade as well as a Spo-Cha. Taking over an erstwhile Mervyn’s, the former includes eight bowling lanes, a variety of favorite games like a claw machine, and two party/karaoke rooms. Upstairs is Spo-Cha, short for Sports Challenge, which is an indoor sports complex where one pays a flat fee for 90 minutes to access activities like riding a mechanical bull, batting cages, a trampoline park, basketball, different sport courts, and billiards.
Spo-Cha is currently in five mall locations in the United States, with plans for more. Overall foot traffic at the malls where it’s currently operational has been positive year-over-year for the month of March.
In addition to the mechanical bull, there is also a Kids Spo-Cha climbing gym and obstacle course.
Source: Spo-Cha
Source: Spo-Cha
At an overall chain level, Round1 Entertainment tends to attract Near Urban Diverse Families and Wealthy Suburban Families the most.
Pandemic restrictions ushered in a new age of remote work that slashed commuting and office-wide coffee orders. But the coffee space has adapted to changing consumer behavior, and category leaders – Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros. Coffee – have found success in the new normal.
With Q1 2024 in the rearview mirror, we took a closer look at how visitation to the coffee space has changed since the pandemic.
Over the last few years, Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros have expanded their footprints, helping drive visits in a turbulent retail environment. Notably, visits to all three chains have remained above pre-pandemic levels nearly every quarter since Q2 2021, signifying a rapid and robust foot traffic recovery for the space.
Starbucks and Dunkin’ have both implemented expansion plans recently, with Starbucks focusing on smaller-format stores and Dunkin’ going after non-traditional sites such as airports, universities, and travel plazas. The store fleet growth likely contributed to both chains’ visit increases – in Q1 2024, foot traffic to Starbucks and Dunkin’s was up 14.5% and 9.5%, respectively, compared to Q1 2019.
Meanwhile Dutch Bros.’ physical footprint has grown exponentially since 2019, and the chain is now working on developing its digital footprint, including the rollout of mobile ordering.The company’s aggressive expansion contributed to Dutch Bros.’ significantly elevated visits in Q1 2024 – 177.6% above the Q1 2019 baseline. (The chain’s considerably larger year-over-five-year visit increases compared to Starbucks and Dunkin’ can be attributed to Dutch Bros.’ substantially smaller starting footprint, so that every opening brings a larger visit boost to the chain as a whole.)
Zooming in on visits since the halfway point of 2023 shows that the coffee space’s post-pandemic momentum continued in recent months, with year-over-year (YoY) monthly visits to all three chains positive since the beginning of 2024.
Dutch Bros.’ ongoing aggressive expansion once again gave the Oregon-based chain the largest year-over-year boost, and Starbucks and Dunkin’ also sustained YoY visit growth nearly every month.
Each Coffee Brand Fills a Different Need
The visit growth for the three coffee leaders analyzed shows that there is enough consumer demand to support across-the-board growth in the space. And analyzing the Q1 2024 hourly visit distribution for Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros. reveals that visits to each chain follow a unique pattern – suggesting that every brand plays a unique role in the wider coffee landscape.
Dunkin’ received almost half (47.8%) of its visits before 11:00 AM, indicating that many guests visit Dunkin’ primarily for coffee or other breakfast fare. Starbucks’s guests tended to visit a little later in the day – with 38.5% of Starbucks visits taking place between 11:00 AM and 3:59 PM – so many consumers may be visiting the Seattle-based chain for a midday pick-me-up. Meanwhile, Dutch Bros. saw the largest share of late afternoon and evening visits (between 4:00 and 10:59 PM) relative to the other two chains – perhaps thanks to the chain’s wide variety of non-caffeinated beverages.
The variance in the hourly visit distribution between the three chains shows that the coffee space is big enough for multiple players and bodes well for the three chains’ performance in 2024.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Amid the economic headwinds that plagued the wider dining industry in 2022 and 2023, the QSR and Fast Casual segments offered price-conscious consumers places to treat themselves to affordable indulgences and grab quick meals on the go.
Many of the major chains in this space – including Burger King, Popeyes, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and KFC – are brands owned by Restaurant Brands International (RBI) or Yum! Brands. How are these players faring in 2024?
We dove into the data to find out.
Restaurant Brands International, Inc. owns three leading QSR banners – Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Tim Hortons – as well as Fast Casual chain Firehouse Subs. And since December 2023, all four chains have experienced mainly-positive year-over-year monthly (YoY) foot traffic growth – with the stark exception of January 2024, when unusually cold weather caused overall dining visits to dip.
The January Arctic Blast did not impact all RBI brands equally: Coffee favorite Tim Horton managed to maintain positive visit growth throughout the first month of the year, perhaps thanks to the chain’s emphasis on hot drinks. On the other hand, YoY visits to Firehouse Subs dropped 8.8% in January 2024 – so although the traffic picked back up in February and March, the brand still finished out Q1 2024 with a minor YoY quarterly visit gap.
Popeyes, for its part, enjoyed a 4.4% quarterly visit bump in Q1 2024, fueled in part by the chain’s fleet expansion. And though Burger King ended the quarter with just a slight overall quarterly visit increase (0.3%), this is likely a reflection of the chain’s rightsizing efforts: In Q1 2024, the average number of visits to each of the chain’s venues increased by 4.3%.
Yum! Brands also owns three major fast food chains – Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and KFC – in addition to Fast Casual The Habit Burger Grill. And though KFC – which has been focusing on international expansion – maintained a Q1 2024 YoY visit gap, quarterly visits to YUM!’s two biggest QSR banners, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, were up 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively.
Neither RBI nor YUM! banners are resting on their laurels. Banners at both companies are finding creative ways to drive business, leaning into limited time offers (LTOs) to help customers mark special occasions.
RBI’s Firehouse Subs celebrated leap day – Thursday, February 29th, 2024 – with a special 2-for-1 LTO for customers whose names start with the letters L, E, A, or P. The day of the promotion was the restaurant’s single busiest Thursday between March 2023 and March 2024: Visits were up 21.5% compared to an average Thursday, and about 6.0% compared to an average Friday or Saturday (Firehouse Sub’s two busiest days of the week).
Super Bowl Sunday came this year just two days after National Pizza Day – and YUM!’s Pizza Hut enticed hungry viewers with crowd-pleasing limited time menu offerings. Although many football fans likely ordered their grub online, February 11th, 2024 was still the chain’s busiest day of the past year – with visits up 47.5% compared to a daily average. In the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV CBSA, which hosted Super Bowl LVIII, Pizza Hut’s big-day visit spike was an even more impressive 74.1%.
Inflation may have cooled, but food-away-from-home prices remain high – and are likely to continue to increase this year. Against this backdrop, companies like RBI and YUM! that offer hungry consumers affordable ways to fill up and have fun appear poised for success.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
McDonald’s and Chipotle are two of the biggest names in the QSR and fast-casual space, with thousands of restaurants to their names and millions of visitors monthly. With Q1 2024 behind us, how are the two chains performing? And what can visitation patterns to McDonald’s new beverage concept, CosMc, tell us about the new chain?
We dove into the foot traffic data to find out.
Foot traffic to McDonald’s has remained consistently strong over the past year, with the chain generally outperforming the wider Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) and posting positive visit growth almost every month.
As the chain continues to roll out new concepts, like its Krispy Kreme partnership or revamped menu, visits may keep trending in their positive direction.
McDonald’s isn’t limiting its innovation to in-store partnerships and menu tweaks. The company recently launched its first spin-off restaurant, CosMc's, in December 2023 in the Chicago suburb of Bolingbrook, Illinois, and plans to open at least ten stores by the end of the year. CosMc is named after a lesser-known McDonald's character and aims to compete with beverage and coffee-focused chains while meeting the growing demand for an afternoon pick-me-up.
Comparing the Q1 2024 hourly visit distribution for the first CosMc location with that of nearby (within one mile) McDonald’s, Dunkin', and Starbucks locations reveals significant differences in visitation patterns between the concepts. CosMc received the smallest share of 7:00 to 10:59 AM visits – even less than the nearby McDonald’s – while the nearby Dunkin’ and Starbucks received the largest share of morning visits. But CosMc’s saw the largest share of late afternoon and evening visits – 40.2% of CosMc’s visits were between 4:00 and 7:59 PM, compared to 36.4%, 24.7%, and 18.3% for McDonald’s, Dunkin’, Starbucks, respectively. It seems, then, that CosMc’s is creating its own niche: Instead of competing to provide guests with their morning caffeine fix in the already crowded coffee space, the new brand is using its beverage-forward menu and playful snacks to attract guests with the promise of an afternoon pick-me-up.
Since its launch, CosMc has opened three new locations in Texas and plans to continue rolling out the concept across the country. With a strong reception at its first few locations, CosMc is well-positioned to continue capturing afternoon beverage visits.
Tex-Mex powerhouse Chipotle has also experienced strong foot traffic growth throughout the past twelve months, with the chain outperforming the wider Fast-Casual segment in every month analyzed. Some of the visit increase is likely due to Chipotle’s expansion, and the growth is not likely to slow down any time soon – the company plans to add around 300 new locations in 2024.
With the Fast-Casual segment expected to continue growing in the coming year – and with Chipotle’s record of staying ahead of the curve – the fast casual leader is well-positioned to continue driving visits to its restaurants.
Despite industry challenges, McDonald's and Chipotle continue to drive visits and innovate in the QSR and fast-casual dining spaces, and CosMc's is making progress in the competitive QSR beverage space.
Will these dining destinations continue on their upward streaks?
To keep up with these and other data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Wingstop and Shake Shack are on a roll. We dove into recent location intelligence data to understand what is driving success at these two dining leaders.
Texas-based Wingstop and New York-based Shake Shack are growing fast. Over the past twelve months, both chains outperformed the fast casual segment and posted impressive traffic increases – in March 2024, visits to Wingstop and Shake Shack were up 25.6% and 32.6%, respectively, compared to March 2023.
Some of the visit strength is likely driven by the chains’ recent expansion. Last year, Wingstop opened around 200 of its almost 2000 U.S. locations, while Shake Shack opened around 40 new restaurants domestically for a total of more than 300 locations in December 2023.
A rapidly expanding footprint is not the only factor driving success for these fast casual leaders. Location intelligence suggests that both chains attract visitors looking for a more leisurely dining experience, which could be helping Wingstop and Shake Shack stay ahead of the competition.
Compared to the average fast-casual dining venue, Wingstop and Shake Shack receive fewer visits during the lunch rush (12:00 to 2:59 PM) when diners are looking for a quick bite to eat before returning to work. Instead, the two chains attract a larger share of visits in the evening hours (between 7:00 and 9:59 PM) – when guests tend to have more time to savor their meals. Both chains also receive a relatively sizable portion of their visits on weekends, when patrons have more time to linger on premises.
And the data indicates that Shake Shack and Wingstop visitors do indeed linger longer than the average fast casual patron: Over half of visits to Wingstop and almost two-thirds of Shake Shack visits last longer than 15 minutes, compared to just 48.2% of visits lasting 15+ minutes for the wider fast casual segment.
It seems, then, that consumers are not just visiting Shake Shack or Wingstop for a burger and shake combo or a platter of steaming wings. The data suggests that many guests are also visiting these chains during more leisurely times when they can focus on the dining experience and take in the chains’ atmosphere.
As the companies continue to expand into new markets and deepen their reach in existing ones, the willingness of consumers to dedicate evenings and weekends to eating at Shake Shack and Wingstop bodes well for these chains in 2024 – and beyond.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
We recently looked at where the home improvement retail category stood after 1Q 2024, noting that industry had seen improved visit trends and that we could see continued momentum in the second half of 2024 as housing turnover picks up. As a follow up to that analysis, we thought we’d examine a wider range of retailers in the home improvement retail category. Below, we’ve presented year-over-year visitation trends for the top retailers in the home improvement category in terms of visits. While Home Depot and Lowe’s are down on a year-over-year basis, we see that a number of smaller box chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware are seeing year-over-year visits (Large-box Menards has also been relatively strong).
The trend of smaller box home improvement retailers outperforming has actually been going on for a while. Below, we show share visit data from 2017-2023 for the largest home improvement retailers. Here we also see big gains from Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight
What explains these trends? We believe a lot of it boils down to store expansion and migration trends. Both chains have been growing. We discussed Ace Hardware’s unit growth plans back in November 2022, with the chain reaching 5,800 stores globally (and more than 4,700 in the U.S.) after opening 160 locations in 2022 and 170 in 2023. We’ve also called out Harbor Freight’s recent growth–it was one of the reasons we named it to our Top 10 Brands to watch list this year–and the chain now operates almost 1,500 locations across the U.S. Below, using Placer’s new Map Studio feature to plot Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware locations nationwide. We see a heavy concentration of stores in the Eastern U.S. for both chains.
We’ve also presented a map from Placer’s Migration Report below showing population percentage growth from January 2020 to January 2024 at the market level. Green dots represent markers that have seen permanent population growth, while red represents markets that have seen population declines.
Examining the two maps together sheds some light on the success of Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware–they have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S. We’ve covered the migration of consumers to these markets in the past, including markets have populations smaller than 500,000 people and often under 200,000 individuals. Here, having a smaller format box is an advantage for chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware. Home Depot and Lowe’s both average more than 100,000 square feet per store, which can be difficult to justify in a smaller population market. However, the average Harbor Freight store is 15,000-16,500 square feet and the average Ace Hardware is 10,000 square feet (although ranging between 3,000 and 30,000 square feet). This has allowed both chains to tap smaller markets where much of the population (and household income) has transferred to.
Not surprising, we’ve seen a flood of announcements about retail chains planning to adopt smaller store formats over the past few months. We’ve previously discussed examples across a number of retail categories, including home furnishing (Arhaus and Ethan Allen) and department stores (Bloomie’s), but there has been a notable uptick in announcements from retailers unveiling smaller format stores, including Best Buy, Macy’s, and Whole Foods. Lowe’s has recognized this trend, announcing plans to more aggressively open stores in rural markets.
At a time when it’s more expensive for retailers to operate physical stores due to higher interest rates, higher rent costs (especially among A malls properties), minimum wage increases and labor scarcity, retailers are looking for any way they can to maximize the returns on their store properties, including retail media networks, store-in-store partnerships, and co-branded stores. However, in addition to generating more revenue from ancillary services like advertising or store-in-store partnerships, it’s clear that utilizing a smaller box to address population migration trends has become an increasingly attractive option
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
