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Frozen yogurt is no longer a 2010s relic, although many would argue the trend never left. Placer.ai data shows visits to frozen yogurt chains posted positive year-over-year growth in nearly every week of the first half of 2026, at times topping 18%. Traditional ice cream shops, by contrast, swung repeatedly into negative territory, dipping as low as -8.5% YoY in several weeks. The gap suggests froyo isn't just riding the broader dessert category's coattails; it's carving out its own lane.
Weekly Change in Visits vs. Same Week in 2025, Jan–Jul 2026
The comeback is playing out most visibly in New York City, where new-generation shops like Myka, Mimi's, and Birdie's have reframed froyo as a design-forward, protein-friendly lifestyle product rather than a diet dessert. Lines have been forming around the block, a sign that frozen yogurt is the latest viral treat appealing to easily influenced consumers.
The day-of-week breakdown backs this up. Friday and Saturday alone account for roughly 36% of weekly visits to frozen yogurt chains, edging out ice cream's weekend share. That skew points to froyo becoming a planned, social outing rather than an impulse stop, more akin to a coffee run than a drive-by treat.
Share of Weekly Visits by Day of Week, Jan 1–Jul 18, 2026
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Both sweetgreen and CAVA delivered strong year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in Q2 2026, outperforming both the broader restaurant industry and the fast-casual category despite a challenging consumer environment. While the industry-wide cyclosporiasis outbreak that emerged in July has introduced a new source of uncertainty – particularly for produce-centric concepts like Sweetgreen – both brands seem to be entering the second half of the year with considerable underlying momentum.
Even more encouraging was the acceleration in same-store traffic. CAVA, which has posted positive same-store visit growth in nearly every month over the past year, delivered two of its strongest results in Q2, with existing restaurant visits increasing 7.7% in April and 7.9% in June. This continued acceleration suggests CAVA's growth remains supported by healthy demand at existing restaurants, reinforcing confidence that its expansion story is being driven by underlying consumer strength rather than new unit openings alone.
Sweetgreen also showed notable improvement, reversing nearly a year of negative same-store traffic as same-store visits rose 1.0% in May and 3.9% in June. The improvement coincided with the nationwide launch of wraps on May 6th, suggesting the menu expansion may already be helping broaden the chain's appeal and drive stronger demand at existing restaurants. As one of the most visible initiatives under sweetgreen's Sweet Growth Transformation Plan, the wraps may also provide an early indication that the company's broader strategy is beginning to translate into stronger customer demand.
While sweetgreen and CAVA enter earnings from very different positions, Q2 visitation trends suggest both companies have reasons for optimism. CAVA continues to demonstrate that rapid expansion has not come at the expense of existing restaurant performance, while sweetgreen's improving same-store traffic suggests recent operational initiatives and menu innovation may be beginning to gain traction. Although macroeconomic headwinds remain, both brands appear well positioned heading into earnings, with visitation trends indicating resilient consumer demand.
Chipotle and McDonald's have spent the past year navigating significant headwinds, as rising gas prices, tighter household budgets, and cautious discretionary spending pressured restaurant traffic – particularly among lower-income households.
Still, the shared macro backdrop produced very different outcomes. Chipotle generated 4.7% year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth in Q2, while McDonald's visits fell 4.5%.
Because Chipotle is continuing to expand, overall traffic growth naturally outpaced same-store performance – though visitation at existing locations remained positive throughout Q2 2026 as well, ending the quarter 1.8% above year-ago levels. So after a difficult 2025 that saw slowing traffic, negative comparable sales, and reduced guidance raise investor concerns about the pace of Chipotle's growth, visitation trends suggest demand may be stabilizing.
Unlike Chipotle, McDonald's U.S. footprint remained relatively stable, so same-store traffic closely mirrored overall visitation, with both declining year over year (YoY) throughout Q2 2026. The divergence between the two chains may partly reflect differences in their customer bases. Only 30.1% of Chipotle visitors came from trade areas with median household incomes below $50K, while nearly a quarter came from areas with median household incomes above $150K. By comparison, 36.1% of McDonald's visitors came from trade areas with median household incomes below $50K, while just 17.5% came from areas above $150K, suggesting its customer base was likely more exposed to higher gas prices and rising food costs.
While McDonald's softer Q2 traffic warrants monitoring, the timing suggests the slowdown should be viewed in the context of an unusually challenging environment for lower-income consumers rather than as definitive evidence of weakening brand relevance. If pressure from higher gas prices and food costs begins to ease, the chain could be well positioned to benefit as its core customer regains spending power.
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Nearly two years into its "Back to Starbucks" strategy, the company's traffic trends suggest the turnaround is gaining traction. Overall visits increased year over year (YoY) in every month of the past 12 months, with Q2 2026 traffic up 2.6% despite higher gas prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on discretionary spending. Same-store traffic has also remained positive since October 2025 and has outpaced overall visit growth in recent months, reflecting the impact of the company's portfolio rationalization.
The repeat-visit data also suggests that the strategy is resonating. From January through June 2026, the share of Starbucks customers visiting at least twice per month exceeded 2025 levels almost months, indicating that the chain is not only attracting more customers (with a 1.3% YoY increase in overall visitors in H1 2026) but is also encouraging more frequent use.
The visitation data, along with the increase in repeat customers, suggests Starbucks' operational improvements are beginning to translate into stronger customer retention. If Starbucks can continue converting occasional guests into regular visitors, the company appears increasingly well positioned to translate operational improvements into durable growth.
Overall visits to Dutch Bros increased year over year (YoY) every month over the past year, with Q2 2026 traffic up 7.7%, even as same-store visits softened.
Given Dutch Bros' relatively young, middle-income customer base, higher transportation costs may have disproportionately pressured visit frequency among existing customers, even as new store openings continued to drive systemwide traffic growth. Indeed, the timing of the dip – beginning in March 2026, just as gas prices started to skyrocket – suggests macro pressures rather than weakening brand demand may explain part of the moderation in comparable-store trends.
Management has consistently identified the morning daypart as one of Dutch Bros' largest growth opportunities, with initiatives including expanded food offerings, mobile ordering, and beverage innovation designed to make the chain a stronger breakfast destination.
And visitation data suggests those efforts are gaining traction, with Dutch Bros posting its strongest YoY traffic gains before noon during Q2, substantially outperforming the broader coffee category throughout most of the morning. While the company remains known for its afternoon beverage business, continued gains during morning commute hours suggest it is expanding into a much larger addressable occasion rather than simply strengthening its existing niche.
If macro pressures prove temporary, Dutch Bros could benefit from both continued unit expansion and an improvement in visit frequency among its existing customer base. Combined with encouraging momentum in the morning daypart, that would give the company multiple avenues for sustaining traffic growth even as comparisons become more challenging.
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When Tailored Brands filed for bankruptcy in August 2020, the immediate catalyst was the pandemic, which shuttered stores and sharply reduced demand for suits and other formalwear. But the company was already facing structural headwinds. As workplace attire became more casual and consumers had fewer occasions to dress up, Men's Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, and K&G Fashion Superstore had already begun losing ground to the broader apparel category in 2019. The pandemic accelerated those challenges, widening the traffic gap as consumers had even fewer reasons to put on a suit and tie.
But following the reopening surge of 2021 and 2022 and a normalization period through 2024, all three banners had largely closed the gap with the broader full-price apparel category, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic trends returning to roughly in line with the sector.
Since mid-2025, Jos. A. Bank and Men's Wearhouse have consistently outperformed the full-service apparel category in terms of YoY visit growth, perhaps helped by return-to-office policies and a renewed appreciation for tailored apparel for work and special occasions. The performance aligns with Tailored Brands' IPO thesis that investments in merchandising, brand repositioning, and omnichannel capabilities have strengthened its competitive position.
K&G Fashion Superstore's visitation trends have been more mixed, with traffic softening in recent months. But the divergence coincided with the sharp rise in gas prices beginning in spring 2026, and may reflect the banner's greater exposure to value-oriented, lower-income shoppers rather than a broader deterioration in the business. Notably, Tailored Brands continues to position K&G as a long-term growth vehicle in its IPO filing, including plans to expand the banner's store footprint, suggesting management views the recent softness as temporary rather than structural.
Tailored Brands' visitation trends suggest the business has moved beyond simply recovering from the pandemic. For potential investors, the key question now is whether the company can continue converting renewed demand into sustained market share gains.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
