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Earlier this week, we attended the National Restaurant Association show in Chicago and had the chance to speak with a wide range of restaurant owner/operators (large chains, small chains, independents, and franchisees) as well as their vendors, distributors, and other technology solutions. We’ve already seen some great recaps of the event (including one from Nation’s Restaurant News), but we thought we’d offer some of our own observations from the event.
Fierce Fight for Visits Amid New Sources of Competition
We discussed this during our trade show preview last week, but concerns about slowing foot traffic trends and increased competition with alternative food retail channels like grocery, dollar stores, and convenience stores was easily the number one topic of discussion at the event. Most operators we spoke with acknowledged flat or year-over-year declines in comparable visits, which is consistent with the year-to-date on most of the restaurant subcategories we monitor (below)
Most of the restaurant executives we spoke to at the event also noted the improvements of prepared food offerings in the grocery and c-store channels as a competitive headwind. One executive even told us that “C-stores have gone from copying QSR category innovations to setting the bar higher in many ways.” We’ve seen this in the channel shift taking place across the food retail category, which we touched upon last week.
As it pertains to competition in the months ahead, operators across all categories admitted that they were curious about the ripple effect of McDonald’s plans to launch a $5 value menu on June 25 (which will run for a month). We’re already starting to see competitors try to front-run McDonald’s $5 value menu, and there will likely be others who introduce similar promotions in the coming weeks. While these offers are likely to help QSR chains recapture some of the visits lost to other channels, these chains will likely need to continue with their value messaging in the back half of the year (especially with the rollbacks taking place at Walmart, Target, and other superstore chains) while also committing to more menu innovation than we’ve seen year-to-date.
Coffee’s Momentum Continues–With A Notable Outlier
One of the two subcategories that is seeing year-over-year increases is coffee. Some of this growth has been fueled by expansion plans of Dutch Bros, 7 Brew Coffee, 151 Coffee, Scooter’s Coffee, Philz Coffee, particularly in the South and Southeast U.S. (something we touched on late last year). Below, we’ve put together a custom chain of drive-thru focused chains versus the category average to put some context behind where the growth in the category is coming from (although the category itself as a whole continues to see healthy growth).
Starbucks–which reported a 7% decline in comparable transactions during its January-March 2024 quarter–is one of the key outliers from this category. Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan called the company’s performance “disappointing” on its most recent update call. There have been no shortage of opinions on why the chain has underperformed, but our data continues to indicate that occasional visitors are the root of the softer visitation trends, much like they were last quarter. To reverse these trends, the company has already launched flavored pearls for a series of summer seasonal drinks and an improved blueberry muffin. Additionally, the company plans to launch more sugar-free customization options (including syrups) as well as a zero-to-low-calorie energy beverage.
Casual Dining’s Quiet Comeback
The other restaurant category posting seeing year-over-year growth may come as a surprise: casual-dining chains. After a slow start to the year due to weather, the category has generally seen low-single-digit growth on a year-over-year basis (something Placer’s blog team pointed out a few weeks ago). Several executives in the casual dining space we spoke with noted that they had started to see improving trends, with a few citing a narrowing price gap with QSR/fast casual chains (in other words, if consumers are going to pay the same price per entree, they’ll gravitate toward casual dining) as well as a continued propensity to spend for events/holidays (a theme we touched on repeatedly in the past).
Where is the growth coming from? There are a couple of expected categories, including steakhouses, breakfast-first concepts, and eatertainment. Asian concepts have also performed well this year, helped by growth from experiential concepts like Kura Sushi and GEN Korean BBQ.
On the other end of the spectrum, we see weakness in Mexican and Seafood concepts. Seafood should not come as a surprise given that one of other notable development in the restaurant industry this week was Red Lobster’s bankruptcy announcement. The company's Endless Shrimp promotion has been widely blamed for the company's bankruptcy filing--and our visitation data does show a spike in visits coinciding with the promotion--but there were certainly other factors such as unfavorable lease terms that played a part.
It’s been nicknamed the “Superbowl for Dealmakers” and this year’s packed ICSC Las Vegas conference paved the way for tons of pipelines. All had comfy shoes on, phones ready to scan badges, and everyone was eager to learn and network.
Based on the buzz in the booths, it’s clear that dealmakers were happy to be able to meet face-to-face. High-demand retail locations are staying strong and able to command higher rents. However, there are also landlords in areas with less demand willing to negotiate and toss in reduced rent or concessions. With higher costs for construction and borrowing and limited supply in hot areas, both landlord and tenants are getting creative with solutions. Some are carving up vacant anchors for non-traditional tenants or experimenting with smaller footprints and more curated merchandise. Kroger is launching new concepts within the ethnic grocery space. Meanwhile others are taking advantage of large spaces to create experiential flagships, as we noted in the panel on “Shifting Store Formats” that Placer participated in, along with Kohl’s, CBRE, and Colliers. Other fascinating panels included understanding the impact of influencer marketing and innovations that are revolutionizing the shopping experience.
In a panel on “The Office - The Effect of Flexible Work Models on Foot Traffic,” a panel including Avison Young, CBRE, and Placer discussed how shoppers are shifting their times and locations for shopping, dining, fitness, and entertainment as a result of migration and varying remote and hybrid work schedules.
Over the course of the conference, one city kept popping up in conversation and that city was Miami. Whether it was cocktail party conversation, pub crawl chit chat, or booth banter, people kept lauding how this city barely missed a beat during COVID, new residents kept flocking in, its vibrant and cosmopolitan feel, and the opportunity for new concepts and store openings here. Let’s unpack some of the things happening in Miami.
Migration
Using Placer’s Migration Dashboard and honing on our Migration Draw tool, we see that Miami’s coastal areas are extremely attractive to residents.
Some of the factors that most affect Miami’s desirability include weather, being pedestrian-friendly, and superior access to restaurants and nightlife.
There are of course some trade-offs as well, such as higher housing costs and overall cost of living than many transplants’ original locales.
Nightlife
If you want to party in the city where the heat is on, Miami's the place for you. Taking a look at the time period of 6pm- midnight, nightlife visits in Miami outnumber those in East Williamsburg, Capitol Hill, or Deep Ellum.
Return to Office
In an interesting twist, Miami also leads in having the highest rate of return-to-office. How do they manage to do that if they’ve been out partying? It’s likely a work hard/play harder mentality. Or, like many at ICSC mentioned, Miami never really closed down as much as other cities during Covid, hence there is less to recover from. Placer's Office Dashboard notes that Miami is in the lead with the highest recovery rate.
Shopping and Entertainment
For those who love all things retail, there are plenty of shopping centers and shopping areas to choose from. Brickell City Centre has seen some of the largest year-over-year increases. Meanwhile, Aventura’s April visits are up considerably compared to last year. The Miami Design District, which the Anchor has written about previously, has also been showing consistent year-over-year growth this year.
DICK’S Sporting Goods is one of the best-known names in the sportswear and sporting goods retail segment, with more than 700 stores across the country. The company, which also operates several smaller banners including its interactive House of Sport, has thrived in recent years, buoyed by a continued interest in health and wellness.
How is the chain faring into 2024? We took a look at the latest location intelligence to find out.
DICK'S was a major pandemic-era winner, sustaining visit gains through 2021 and 2022 and into early 2023. And though YoY visits slowed as 2023 wore on, DICK’s ended last year in a strong position, reporting the largest sales quarter of its history in Q4 2023.
And in early 2024, DICK’s largely held on to its gains. Like many retailers, DICK’S saw YoY foot traffic fall in January, as unusually cold and stormy weather kept many shoppers at home. But in February and March, the chain’s YoY visit gap narrowed considerably, with foot traffic hovering just under 2023 levels – no small feat for a discretionary chain in an environment marked by stubbornly elevated prices and flagging consumer confidence.
During most analyzed months, DICK’S outperformed both traditional Apparel and Sportswear & Athleisure retailers. And though the chain saw monthly YoY foot traffic drop once again in April, an analysis of weekly data shows that it entered May on an upswing.
Indeed, zooming into weekly visits to DICK’S shows that only during the week of April 8th, 2024 did the chain experience a large visit gap. And visits to the sportswear company began to trend upward towards the end of April and beginning of May – with YoY visits growing by 1.9% during the week of April 29th, and by 0.7% in the week of May 6th. The company also outperformed the Apparel and Sportswear segments in all but one of the analyzed weeks – Sportswear retailers had a slightly stronger showing than DICK’S did for the week of April 22.
Experiential retail has emerged as a significant success story in recent years, and DICK’S has enthusiastically embraced the trend. In 2021, the company introduced its House Of Sport concept, offering visitors the opportunity to browse athletic gear or try their hand at a climbing wall or a batting cage.
The concept quickly gained traction, expanding to fourteen locations, with several more slated to open in 2024 alone. And an analysis of visitation patterns at DICK’S House Of Sport locations shows why the model is such a powerful one.
In Q1 2024, YoY visits to the three original House of Sport locations in Victor, NY, Minnetonka, MN, and Knoxville TN – the only ones operational at the start of 2023 – increased by 4.8%. So as DICK’S continues to expand its portfolio of House of Sport locations, existing ones are also drawing bigger crowds.
The original House of Sport locations also drew more extended visits in Q1 2024 than other DICK’s locations – with a remarkable 40.7% of visits lasting more than 30 minutes. With the success of House of Sport under its belt, DICK’S has begun further diversifying its fleet with a new store format that brings an interactive retail experience to the chain’s traditional store type.
DICK’S continues to outperform the wider Apparel and Sportswear retail segments, and its expanding House of Sport concept is meeting healthy and growing demand. As the company continues to lean into its experiential offerings, will the chain’s positive momentum accelerate further?
Visit placer.ai for the latest data-driven retail insights.
As cars get more expensive, demand for repairs rises – and auto part chains are reaping the benefits. We analyzed the visit data for four leading auto part chains – AutoZone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, NAPA Auto Parts and Advance Auto Parts – and dove into O’Reilly Auto Parts’ recent growth to understand what may be driving success in this flourishing segment.
Auto parts chains are having a moment. With vehicle prices significantly higher than before COVID, many consumers would rather fix their cars than purchase new ones. At the same time, inflation has begun to subside, leaving people with more room in their budgets for non-essential maintenance and repairs.
Following a drop in December 2023, YoY visits to AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, Advance Auto Parts, and NAPA Auto Parts began to pick up in January 2024 – despite unusually cold and stormy weather that left many consumers hunkered down at home. And between February and April, YoY visits to the four chains remained nearly uniformly elevated.
On a quarterly basis, O’Reilly Auto Parts saw the biggest YoY visit increase, despite lapping a strong 2023. The chain, which drew 32.1% of total visits to the four brands in Q1, saw quarterly YoY foot traffic increase by 5.1%. AutoZone, which received 40.1% of quarterly visits to the four chains, saw quarterly YoY visits increase by 3.5%. And Advance Auto Parts and NAPA Auto Parts both saw quarterly YoY visits increase by 1.7%.
One strategy that has likely helped O’Reilly Auto Parts stay ahead of the pack is its much-touted loyalty program, recently ranked by Newsweek as one of the best in the nation.
Location intelligence shows that since COVID, O’Reilly Auto Parts has seen a steady increase in the loyalty of its customer base. And in April 2024, O’Reilly Auto Parts boasted the most loyal customer base of the four analyzed chains – with 52.0% of visits made by individuals that frequented the chain at least twice during the month. But other auto chains, including AutoZone, also enjoyed significant shares of visits by repeat customers – showing that there’s plenty of room at the top in the auto parts space.
The auto parts industry is poised for success in 2024, with leading chains like O'Reilly Auto Parts, AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts, and NAPA Auto Parts demonstrating resilience and growth. How will these chains continue to perform as the year wears on?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
We looked at nationwide and regional visitation patterns for CAVA to understand how the fast-growing fast-casual chain is performing across its major markets.
CAVA – which operated a little over 300 locations by the end of 2023 – is growing rapidly, with plans to reach 1,000 locations by 2032. The chain has seen consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in most of its major markets, with a 23.6% YoY overall increase in nationwide visits in Q1 2024 – in large part due to its ongoing expansion.
CAVA is headquartered in Washington, D.C., and currently, most of its venues are located in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. But the chain also has a strong presence in Texas and California and operates restaurants in a handful of additional states. Recently, CAVA entered the Midwest with its first Chicago location – and has plans to extend its reach even further. So what do CAVA’s various markets have in common – and what sets them apart?
Nationwide, the median household income (HHI) in CAVA’s captured market trade area is higher than the US median HHI – and diving into the regional markets indicates that this trend persists across regional markets.
In most states with a major CAVA presence – including Texas, Virginia, California, North Carolina, Georgia, and Maryland – the median HHI in CAVA’s trade area is 11% to 24% higher than the statewide median. Even in Florida, where the chain’s trade area HHI is closest to the statewide median, households in CAVA’s captured market are still slightly more affluent than in Florida as a whole.
But while the chain seems to attract a similar demographic across states, diving into the hourly visitation patterns in CAVA’s various markets indicates that dining habits differ between regions.
In Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, the share of 11:00 AM - 10:00 PM CAVA visits taking place during the lunchtime daypart (11:00 AM - 2:00 PM) ranges from 35.5% to 36.9% – at or above the nationwide average of 35.4%. But in Virginia and Maryland, and especially California, the lunchtime rush is more subdued. In these states, the afternoon and evening dayparts tend to be busier than in the other analyzed states – with California in particular seeing 35.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM.
Identifying similarities and differences between the visitor bases in CAVA’s various markets can help the company identify ideal locations, optimize staffing needs, and tailor promotional efforts as it continues to enter new markets and open additional restaurants in existing ones.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
How did Mother’s Day (May 12th, 2024) impact retail and dining foot traffic this year? We dove into the data to find out.
Urban legends notwithstanding, Mother’s Day wasn’t actually created by the greeting card industry. But the occasion hasn’t become known as the “Hallmark holiday” for nothing. Every year in the run-up to Mother’s Day, shoppers descend on the chain to purchase everything from cards to candy.
Most years, the day before Mother’s Day is Hallmark’s busiest day of the year, with Super Saturday (the Saturday before Christmas) a not-so-close second. In 2023, Mother’s Day was edged out by Super Saturday, which converged with Christmas Eve Eve to create a pre-holiday shopping bonanza for the ages.
And this year is shaping up to be no different: On May 11th, 2024 (the day before Mother’s Day), Hallmark experienced a major visit spike – leaving all other Saturdays, including the Saturday before Easter, in the dust.
But greeting card retailers like Hallmark aren’t the only ones to benefit from Mother’s Day. A look at foot traffic to major industries on May 11th, 2024 shows that retailers across segments – from Home Improvement chains to Superstores – enjoy substantial visit boosts on the day before Mother’s Day. (Recreational & Sporting Goods, not so much).
For Home Improvement, Department Stores, Hobbies, Gifts & Crafts, and Clothing, May 11th, 2024 was the busiest day of the year so far, while for Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores it was superseded only by March 30th – the day before Easter.
While the day before Mother’s Day is an important retail milestone, Mother’s Day itself is an occasion for treating mom to a nice meal out. And though grabbing a bite at a fast food joint or fast-casual fave is lots of fun – it decidedly isn’t the Mother’s Day vibe. A special occasion calls for a splurge, and Mother’s Day is Full-Service Restaurants’ time to shine.
On May 12th, 2024, Quick-Service and Fast-Casual Restaurants received about the same number of visits as on an average Sunday this year. But Full-Service Restaurants saw visits skyrocket – outperforming an average Sunday by 49.6%.
And drilling down into the data for six of Mother’s Day’s busiest Full-Service Restaurant chains shows Olive Garden emerging as a major holiday winner – with 89.0% more visits on May 12th, 2024 than on an average Sunday this year. Olive Garden drew more visits this Mother’s Day than on any other day since the beginning of the year – with Valentine’s Day (February 14th, 2024) coming in a close second.
But the Italian-American cuisine giant certainly isn’t the only FSR to enjoy a substantial visit boost on the big day: Texas Roadhouse, Cracker Barrel General Store, Chili’s Grill & Bar, Applebee’s, and IHOP saw respective May 12th visit increases of 55.1%, 51.0%, 46.4%, 44.4%, and 29.3%, compared to an average Sunday.
Mother’s Day comes but once a year – and grateful offspring nationwide show their appreciation with gifts and celebratory meals, generating boons for businesses across categories.
With Father’s Day right around the corner, what kind of impact will Dad’s big day have on retail and restaurant visits? Will Recreational & Sporting Goods brands have their day in the sun?
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, follow placer.ai.
1. Idaho and South Carolina have emerged as significant domestic migration magnets over the past four years. Between January 2021 and 2025, both states gained over 3.0% of their populations through domestic migration. Other Mountain and Sun Belt states – including Nevada, Montana, and Florida – also drew significant inflow, while California, New York, and Illinois experienced the greatest outmigration.
2. Interstate migration cooled noticeably in 2024. During the 12-month period ending January 2025, California, New York and Illinois saw their outflows slow dramatically, while domestic migration hotspots like Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflows flatten to zero. A similar cooling trend emerged on a CBSA level.
3. Still, some states continued to see notable relocation activity over the past year. In 2024, Idaho, South Carolina, and North Dakota drew the most relocators relative to their populations. And among the nation’s ten largest states, North Carolina led with an inflow of 0.4%.
4. Phoenix remained a rare bright spot among the nation’s ten largest metro areas. The CBSA was the only major analyzed hub to maintain positive net domestic migration through 2024.
Over the past several years, the United States has experienced significant domestic migration shifts, driven by factors like remote work, housing affordability, and regional economic opportunities. As some areas reap the benefits of population inflows, others grapple with outflows tied to higher living costs and evolving workplace dynamics.
This report dives into the location analytics to explore where Americans have moved since 2021 – and how these patterns began to change in 2024.
Since 2021, Americans have flocked toward warmer climates, expansive natural scenery, and more affordable housing options – particularly in the Mountain and Sun Belt states.
Between January 2021 and January 2025, South Carolina led the nation in positive net domestic migration – drawing an influx of newcomers equivalent to 3.6% of its January 2025 population. (This metric is referred to as a state’s “net migrated percent of population.”) Next in line was Idaho with a 3.4% net migrated percent of population, followed by Nevada, (2.8%), Montana (2.8%), Florida (2.1%), South Dakota (2.1%), Wyoming (2.0%), North Carolina (2.0%), and Tennessee (1.9%). Texas saw positive net migration of just 0.9% during the same period. However, the Lone Star State’s large overall population means a substantial number of newcomers in absolute terms.
Meanwhile, California (-2.2%), New York (-2.1%), and Illinois (-1.9%) experienced the greatest outflows relative to their populations. This exodus was driven largely by soaring housing costs and the rise of remote work, which lowered barriers to moving out of high-priced areas.
Between January 2024 and January 2025, many of the same broad patterns persisted, but at a more moderate clip – suggesting a stabilization of domestic migration nationwide. This leveling off could reflect factors such as rising mortgage interest rates, which dampened home buying and selling, as well as the increased push for employees to return to the office.
Still, South Carolina (+0.6%) and Idaho (+0.6%) remained among the top inflow states. The two hotspots were joined – and slightly surpassed – by North Dakota (+0.8%), where even modest waves of newcomers make a big impact due to the state’s lower population base. A wealth of affordable housing and a strong job market have positioned North Dakota as a particularly attractive destination for U.S. relocators in recent years. And Microsoft and Amazon’s establishment of major presences around Fargo has strengthened the region’s economy.
Meanwhile, California (-0.3%), New York (-0.2%), and Illinois (-0.1%) continued to post negative net migration, but at a markedly slower rate than in prior years. And notably, several states that had been struggling with outflow, such as Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon, began showing minor positive inflow during the same 12-month window. As home affordability erodes in pandemic-era hot spots like the Mountain states and Sun Belt, these areas may emerge as new destinations for Americans seeking lower costs of living.
Zooming in on the ten most populous U.S. states offers an even clearer picture of how domestic migration patterns have stabilized over the past year. The graph below shows a side-by-side comparison of domestic migration patterns during the 36-month period ending January 2024 and the 12-month period ending January 2025.
California, New York, and Illinois saw population outflows slow dramatically during the 12 months ending January 2025 – while domestic migration magnets such as Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflow flatten to zero. Meanwhile, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from slightly negative to slightly positive net migration – incremental upticks that could signal a possible turnaround.
The only “Big Ten” pandemic-era migration magnet to maintain strong inflow in 2024 was North Carolina – which saw a 0.4% influx in 2024 as a result of interstate moves.
A closer look at the top four states receiving outmigration from California and New York (October 2020 to October 2024) reveals that residents leaving both states tended to settle in nearby areas or in Florida.
Among those leaving New York, 37.4% ended up in neighboring states – 21.1% moved to New Jersey, 9.2% to Pennsylvania, and 7.1% to Connecticut. But an astonishing 28.8% decamped all the way to the Sunshine State, trading the Northeast’s colder climate for Florida sunshine.
Similarly, 20.1% of California leavers chose to stay nearby, moving to Nevada (11.5%) or Arizona (8.6%). Another 19.1% moved to Texas, and 8.0% moved to Florida, making it the fourth-largest destination for Californians.
Zooming in on CBSA-level data – focusing on the nation’s ten largest metropolitan areas, all with over five million people – reveals a similar picture of slowing domestic migration over the last year.
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. – four cities that experienced notable population outflows between January 2021 and January 2024 – saw those outflows flatten considerably. For these metros, this leveling-off may serve as a promising sign that the waves of departures seen in recent years may have begun to subside. Conversely, Houston and Dallas, which both welcomed positive net migration between January 2021 and January 2024, registered zero-net domestic migration in 2024. Atlanta, for its part, remained flat in both of the analyzed periods.
In Miami, however, outmigration persisted at a substantial rate. Despite Florida’s overall status as a domestic migration magnet, Miami lost 2.6% of its population to domestic net migration between January 2020 and January 2024 – and another 1.0% between January 2024 and January 2025. As one of Florida’s most expensive housing markets, Miami may be losing some residents to other parts of the state or elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, which lost 0.3% of its population to net domestic migration between January 2021 and January 2024, continued losing residents at a slightly faster pace in 2024 – another 0.3% just last year.
Of the ten biggest CBSAs nationwide, only Phoenix continued to see a net domestic migration gain through 2024 (+0.2%). This highlights the CBSA’s continued draw as a (relative) relocation hotspot even in 2024’s cooling market.
Who are the domestic relocators heading to Phoenix?
From October 2020 to October 2024, the top five metro areas sending residents to the Phoenix CBSA each registered median household incomes (HHIs) of $73K to $98K – surpassing Phoenix’s own median of $72K. This suggests that many of those moving in are arriving from wealthier, often more expensive metro areas – for whom even Phoenix’s high-priced market may offer more affordable living.
Overall, domestic migration patterns appear to have cooled in 2024, reflecting economic and societal trends that have slowed the rush from pricey coastal hubs to more affordable regions. Yet states like South Carolina, Idaho, and North Dakota – as well as metro areas like Phoenix – continue to attract new arrivals, paving the way for evolving regional demographics in the years to come.
In today’s retail landscape, consumer behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors, directly impacting the success of products and brands. This report explores the latest trends in value perception, shopping behavior, and media consumption that impact which brands consumers are most likely to engage with – and how.
In the apparel space, consumers continue to prioritize value and unique merchandise.
Analysis of visits to various apparel categories reveals a steady increase in the share of visits going to off-price retailers and thrift stores at the expense of traditional apparel chains.
And the popularity of off-price chains and thrift stores appears to be widespread across multiple audience segments. Analyzing trade area data with the Experian: Mosaic psychographic dataset reveals a clear preference for second-hand retailers among both younger (ages 25-30) and older (51+) consumer segments. Meanwhile, middle-class parents aged 36-45 with teenagers – the “Family Union” segment – are significantly more likely to shop at off-price apparel stores, highlighting their emphasis on buying new, while saving both time and money.
This suggests that the powerful blend of treasure-hunting and deep value, central to both the off-price and thrift experiences, is driving traffic from a variety of audiences, and that other industries could benefit from combining affordability with the allure of unique products.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence for the apparel space further highlights thrift and off-price’s broad appeal – and that a combination of quality and price motivates consumers to visit different retailers.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of Bloomingdale’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Nordstrom visitors that also visited a Goodwill or Ross Dress for Less increased significantly.
And while this could mean that the current economic climate is causing some higher-income consumers to trade down to lower-priced retailers, it could also be that consumers are prioritizing sustainability and seeking value in terms of “bang for their buck” – shopping a combination of retailers depending on the cost versus quality considerations for each purchase.
Consumers increasingly expect to shop on their own terms, opting for a more flexible shopping experience that blurs the lines between traditional retail channels and categories.
Superstores and warehouse stores, for example, often evoke the image of navigating aisle after aisle of nearly every product imaginable – a time-consuming endeavor given the sheer size of their stores. But the latest location intelligence shows that more consumers are turning to these retailers for super-quick shopping trips.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits lasting less than ten minutes at Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and to a lesser extent Costco, rose steadily – perhaps due to increased use of flexible BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in-store) and curbside pick-up options. These stores may also be seeing a rise in consumers popping in to grab just a few items as-needed or to cherry-pick particular deals to complement their larger online shopping orders.
This trend highlights the demand for frictionless store experiences that allow visitors to conveniently shop or pick up orders even at large physical retailers.
And the breaking down of traditional retail silos isn’t limited to big-box chains. Diving into the data for quick service restaurants (QSR), fast casual chains, and grocery stores indicates that more consumers are also looking for new ways to grab a convenient bite.
Since 2019, grocery stores have been claiming an increasingly large share of the midday short visit pie – i.e. visits between 11:00 AM 3:00 PM lasting less than ten minutes – at the expense of QSR chains. This suggests that consumers seeking quick and affordable lunches are increasingly turning to grocery stores to pick up a few items or take advantage of self-service food bars. Notably, the rise in supermarket lunching hasn’t come at the expense of fast-casual restaurants, which have also upped their quick-service games – and have seen a small increase in their share of the quick lunchtime crowd over the past five years.
While some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices, it’s clear that an increasing share of consumers see grocery and fast-casual chains as viable options during the lunch rush.
In 2025, tapping into hot trends and creating viral moments are among the most powerful tools for amplifying promotions and driving foot traffic to physical stores.
Retailers across categories have successfully harnessed the power of pop culture collaborations to generate excitement – and visits – by leaning into trending themes. On October 8th, 2024, for example, Wendy’s launched its epic Krabby Patty Collab, inspired by the beloved SpongeBob franchise. And during the week of the offering, the chain experienced a remarkable 21.5% increase in foot traffic compared to an average week that year.
Similarly, Crumbl – adept at creating buzz through manufactured scarcity – sparked a frenzy with the debut of its exclusive Olivia Rodrigo GUTS cookie. Initially available only at select locations near the artist’s concert venues, the cookie was launched nationwide for a limited time from August 19th to 24th, 2024. This buzz-driven release resulted in a 27.7% traffic surge during the week of the launch, as fans rushed to get a taste of the star-studded treat.
And it’s not just dining chains benefiting from these pop-culture moments. On February 16th, 2025, Bath & Body Works launched a Disney Princess-inspired fragrance line, perfect for fans of Cinderella, Ariel, Belle, Jasmine, Moana, and Tiana. The collaboration resonated, fueling a 23.2% visit spike for the chain.
While tapping into existing pop-culture trends has the ability to drive traffic, so does creating a new one. Analysis of movie theater visits on National Popcorn Day (Sunday, January 19th, 2025) shows how initiating a trend can spur social media engagement and impact in-person traffic to physical retail spaces.
National Popcorn Day was a successful promotional holiday across the movie theater industry in 2025. Both Regal Cinemas and AMC Theatres offered popcorn-based promotions on the day, but Cinemark’s “Bring Your Own Bucket” campaign, in particular, appears to have spurred a significant foot traffic boost during the event.
Visits to Cinemark on National Popcorn Day in 2025 increased 57.5% relative to the Sunday visit average for January and February 2025, as movie-goers showed off their out-of-the-bucket popcorn receptacles on social media. Clearly, by starting a trend that invited creativity and expression, Cinemark was able to amplify the impact of its National Popcorn Day promotion.
Location intelligence illuminates some of the key trends shaping consumer behavior in 2025. The data reveals that value-driven shopping, demand for flexibility across touchpoints, and the power of unique retail moments have the power to drive consumer engagement and the success of retail categories, brands, and products.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
