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The Tartan Army was one of the breakout stories of the World Cup. Scotland's traveling supporters turned Boston into a sea of kilts and McTominay shirts, and at one point drank the downtown Sam Adams taproom dry, emptying nearly 90 kegs over four days and forcing a string of emergency beer deliveries. It's a great headline.
But Boston is far from the only host metro where bars and pubs are filling up, and it isn't even close to the biggest beneficiary.
Analyzing weekly visits to bars and pubs in host cities during the World Cup compared to the same period in 2025 shows that nearly all metro areas outperformed the nationwide average on a year over year basis. The standouts on the West Coast – the Los Angeles CBSA and the Bay Area (combined San Jose and San Francisco CBSAs) – saw visits up more than 15% above the same period in 2025. Houston also recorded double-digit growth, while New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Seattle, Philadelphia, Miami, and Boston all posted gains above the national average.
This data results suggest that every host metro except Kansas City outperformed the national trend, suggesting that the tournament generated a broad-based boost to local bars and pubs across the country.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is already reshaping foot traffic across the country - filling stadiums, lifting restaurant traffic near host venues, and drawing fans to watch parties and festivals. But one of the tournament's clearest retail beneficiaries may be its most visible sponsor: adidas, supplier of the official Trionda match ball and kit provider to national teams from Mexico to Argentina.
Heading into the spring, adidas stores were fighting an uphill battle - weekly visits ran below 2025 levels for most of April, bottoming out at -20.5% YoY the week of April 13th. Traffic gradually stabilized through May, and then the World Cup arrived.
During the week of June 8th – which included the tournament’s June 11th kickoff and the USMNT’s 4-1 opening win over Paraguay at SoFi Stadium – adidas store visits climbed 14.3% YoY. Momentum then accelerated the following week, the first full week of group-stage play, when the USMNT defeated Australia in Seattle and adidas visits surged 44.7% above the same week last year.
Father’s Day, which fell on June 21st this year, may have contributed to that jump, since the comparison week in 2025 began the day after Father’s Day. But the magnitude of the spike, along with its staying power in subsequent weeks, suggests that tournament-driven excitement was the main driver.
Big temporary visit spikes often fade fast – but this one hasn’t. During the weeks of June 22nd and June 29th, visits remained elevated more than 20% YoY – suggesting that the tournament is driving a sustained shift in demand, not just a burst of opening-week excitement.
The World Cup's foot traffic ripple effects extend well beyond the stadiums - into dining, retail, and beyond. And while global sponsorships are usually measured in impressions, location intelligence makes them measurable in visits. For adidas, supplying the match ball and outfitting some of the tournament's biggest teams moved fans into stores, week after week. With knockout rounds running through the July 19th final, the three stripes may not be done running up the score.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Coffee shops remain one of dining’s most dependable bright spots, as consumers continue to splurge on affordable indulgences even while cutting back on pricier outings. In H1 2026, coffee visits were up 4.1% year over year (YoY), even as overall dining traffic fell 0.4%. But in some metros, the caffeine rush was running much stronger.
This month's Placer 5 highlights the nation’s top five major coffee markets – metro areas that logged upwards of 10 million coffee shop visits in H1 2026, where coffee shops saw the most YoY visit growth. Each one is thriving for its own reasons, and together they show that there are many ways to win at coffee.
For many of these metros, coffee visit growth was driven at least in part by fleet expansion. But in all five markets, average visits per coffee shop also rose YoY, suggesting that existing venues are also drawing bigger crowds.
Still, each metro brews its own story.
In inland California’s Riverside and Bakersfield, the surges were powered primarily by Starbucks and Dutch Bros, with Bakersfield – the only analyzed metro without an increase in major coffee chain locations in H1 – seeing traffic at existing coffee shops rise significantly even as the overall store count edged down.
In Indianapolis and Kansas City, meanwhile, coffee visits were propelled in part by the drive-thru coffee wave sweeping the middle of the country – a format with so much momentum that Technomic’s 2026 America’s Favorite Chains ranking featured three drive-thru coffee brands in its top 10 for the first time ever. Alongside new Dutch Bros locations, fast-growing 7 Brew also expanded its footprint in both metros. Their car-friendly layouts make Indianapolis and Kansas City natural magnets for the format – and with per-location visits still climbing, the new stands appear to be filling up as fast as they open.
Orlando, for its part, appears to be riding a more general demand wave. The metro's population grew 1.29% between July 2024 and July 2025 – well ahead of the 0.52% national average – while record tourist visits kept vacation mornings busy. More residents and more visitors translate directly into more lattes – and several major chains added stores to keep pace.
Tourism and population growth in Orlando, a drive-thru boom in the heartland, and steady strength in inland California – the standout coffee metros of 2026 each found their own path to growth. And it's worth noting that all five sit far from Stars Hollow of Gilmore Girls’ fame: the Northeast may claim the diner-counter coffee mystique, but the caffeine craze is a truly national affair.
The result is a coffee category that remains highly adaptable. Whether fueled by convenience, expansion, tourism, or loyal daily routines, America's coffee shop segment continues to find new ways to keep visits percolating.
Over the past two decades, Boston's Seaport has undergone a remarkable transformation – evolving from an underutilized stretch of waterfront into one of the city's most vibrant mixed-use destinations. The story of Seaport highlights a critical lesson in real estate development: What you build matters, but creating reasons for people to visit, linger, and return matters just as much.
Using AI-powered location intelligence, we explored Seaport's recent growth and the role of community programming, experiential retail, and other placemaking initiatives in making it one of Boston's premier retail corridors.
Experiences and community have been central to Boston Seaport’s historic revitalization. In the late 2010s, mixed-use development and entertainment anchors helped to establish Seaport as a leisure-time destination, while initiatives like Snowport, Seaport Sweat, and The Current emphasized neighborhood programming and experiential concepts. During this period, visitation consistently peaked in the summer, which remained the corridor’s primary traffic driver.
And although visits to the corridor fell sharply at the onset of the pandemic, Seaport continued to invest in public spaces. When social gatherings resumed, new mixed-use projects like Harbor Way, The Superette, and The Paseo helped to reinforce Seaport as an experience-driven destination and fuel the neighborhood’s foot traffic rebound.
Since then, expanded seasonal programming has diversified visitation beyond the summer months. The launch of The Holiday Market in 2021 complemented the already popular Snowport activation, creating a new seasonal traffic peak. Since its introduction, December has consistently generated a significant surge in visitation – a pattern that was largely absent before the pandemic.
Still, summer remains Seaport’s peak season, with the fair-weather appeal of its outdoor spaces becoming the backdrop for community and engagement. Seaport’s summer programming continues to expand, and with it, foot traffic to the corridor, which has risen nearly every year since COVID, exceeding pre-pandemic levels in the summer of 2025 and again in May and June 2026. And with new social venues, America 250 events, and World Cup action taking place in Boston and within the Seaport corridor, the stage is set for another robust summer season.
While some of Seaport's visitation growth can be attributed to the neighborhood's continued real estate development, a closer look at visitor dwell times provides further evidence that foot traffic is being driven by deeper engagement, not just new construction.
Extended visits consistently account for a significant share of Seaport’s overall traffic. Between January and June 2026, out-of-market visits lasting more than 150 minutes (excluding local employees) represented 39.7% of total visits to the corridor, up from 38.4% in 2025. And over the past six months, visits exceeding 150 minutes consistently outperformed overall visits year-over-year (YoY) – suggesting that visitors are becoming more engaged with the area's retail, dining, and public spaces.
Extended visits and increasing foot traffic aren't the only indicators of Seaport's upward trajectory. Audience segmentation suggests that the corridor’s experiential recreation and retail are helping to attract an affluent consumer base – a valuable cohort in today's bifurcated economic environment.
Location intelligence combined with the STI: PopStats dataset reveals that the Seaport retail corridor attracts a relatively affluent audience, with a trade area median household income (HHI) of $131.3K over the past six months, compared to $124.8K for the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH CBSA overall. But concepts such as Ballers – a new padel and pickleball venue with social events – and The Current, a seasonal retail pop-up along Seaport's main pedestrian thoroughfare, draw even more affluent audiences. The captured market median HHIs for these venues were $143.6K and $144.1K, respectively.
Further analysis using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset suggests that Ballers and The Current attract distinct mixes of affluent consumers. The Current attracts a substantially larger share of Ultra Wealthy Families (24.5%) than either Ballers (17.5%) or the Seaport retail corridor overall (19.4%). Meanwhile, Ballers over-indexes for Educated Urbanites – affluent young professionals living in dense urban areas – relative to both The Current and the broader corridor. This suggests that Seaport's growing mix of experiential concepts is deepening the corridor's appeal across multiple affluent audience segments.
For retail corridors, creating reasons to visit is just as important as creating places to shop.
Boston's Seaport illustrates how placemaking extends beyond development itself. While new retail, dining, and mixed-use projects have reshaped the neighborhood, the data suggests that ongoing investments in programming, public spaces, and experiential concepts have helped transform the corridor into a destination for community engagement.
As Seaport prepares for another busy summer, pairing physical development with curated experiences is likely to sustain the corridor's momentum.
For more insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Spoiler Alert – one of the key pieces of our look back on Q3 will be a focus on those who benefitted from World Cup visitation.
But soccer’s quadrennial – yup, it’s a word, I looked it up – kicked off in June, and brands like Chipotle got into the action. The chain's Buy One Get One (BOGO) free campaign on June 11th drove the highest visit count for the entire year, surpassing a former BOGO-driven peak in March. The lesson? Value works, but value plus a buzzy reason to visit works even better.
It does feel like every time the wider home improvement sector is poised to have a breakout period, something happens to dampen the potential. In 2025, just as visits were starting to rise, momentum stalled as consumers faced with the threat of tariffs looked to offset the risk of rising prices by deferring certain purchases. And it happened in the middle of the segment’s seasonal peak.
In 2026, it was rising gas prices – again during the segment’s most highly trafficked period. Year-over-year visits for the sector went from up 3.6% on average for January and February, to being up just 0.4% on average for March, April and May year over year. The same was seen for the sector’s leaders with Home Depot going from average monthly visit increases of 2.7% in January and February to a decline of 0.2% in March and May, and Lowe’s going from 3.0% to up just 0.7% during those same periods.
The takeaway? The home improvement sector – and leaders Home Depot and Lowe’s – are probably in a better position than they are showing. A little bit of luck – or just the removal of bad timing – seems to be all that stands in the way of significant and ongoing visit growth. Just another reason why the segment and these chains in particular are high on our watch list for the second half of 2026.
Many pontificated about why the rising retail leader would make a move on Everlane, pointing to the lift received from tapping into a socially conscious retail brand. And while this is very likely a piece of the puzzle, there are elements that should not be overlooked.
Not only does Everlane offer the positive brand lift associated with a player committed to certain values, it also offers more access to key markets and audiences – in this case young, high earning urban shoppers and wealthy families, among others. Shein – via a range of pop up experiments – has already displayed an understanding of the value of physical spaces and the benefits that come from offline touchpoints, especially with the aim of user acquisition. With Everlane, they leverage these touchpoints to bring customers – existing and potential – into an even larger world of apparel options.
And the user acquisition piece is key. The use of spaces as an entry point into the wider Shein ecosystem will offer massive long term potential.
One of the more fascinating data points of the year thus far was the incredible correlation between rising gas prices and visits to membership clubs – Costco, BJ’s Wholesale, Sam’s Club – gas locations.
The takeaway here is absolutely clear – when prices rise these locations are trusted by customers to provide the best possible value. But the really important takeaway is that these ‘shorter term’ swings have significant and long term impacts for these retailers. During the pandemic we saw that visits to locations like these don’t just provide a quick win, they indicate a likelihood that these visitors will now be making membership club locations a larger and ongoing part of their retail patterns.
Providing value amid surging gas prices is just another example of an opportunity these leaders are taking to create a win for customers – something they have proven uniquely capable of turning into long term loyalty.
Super Mario launched at the very tail end of Q1, but it was the first signal of the huge potential movie theatre traffic would have in 2026. Obviously, the peak summer months of July and August will carry a huge amount of weight in this conversation, but the spikes driven by Toy Story 5 and others in Q2 were the necessary ‘next signal’ that the run of blockbusters scheduled for this year could drive big visits.
The other area to track here is who else benefits. We’ve talked a lot about limited time offers - especially those tied to movie releases or other anchors that create urgency. And with so many movies coming, and so many of these having significant retail and dining tie-ins, the wider impact could be even larger.
Every year we gather in Las Vegas for a pulse check on the state of retail real estate. And 2026 continued a trend of clear and significant confidence that the positioning of physical stores and dining locations is in a very strong place.
The big question is now less about how rosy or bleak the segment’s future is, but which players will take advantage of the current state of strength to future proof their portfolios by taking calculated risks on how to up level shopping centers and the retail spaces within them.
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The return-to-office (RTO) wars are grinding on. Mandates are expanding across the private and public sectors, and employers are getting more serious about enforcement. But even as the share of Fortune 100 companies requiring full-time in-person work has climbed to 55%, employees continue to push back in ways both visible and subtle – from protests and petitions to "hushed hybrid" workarounds and coffee badging – quiet quitting's caffeinated cousin.
So where does actual attendance stand? We dove into the data to find out.
Nationwide office visits in June 2026 jumped 8.5% year over year (YoY) and stood 21.0% below June 2019 levels. But June 2026 also came with a calendar assist: The month had 21 working days, compared to 20 in both June 2025 and June 2019. And Juneteenth fell on a Friday this year, rather than a Thursday as in 2025 – meaning the holiday landed on what is typically the week’s quietest office day, likely blunting its drag on attendance.
On a per-working-day basis, office visits rose a more modest 3.3% YoY, continuing the slow but stubborn climb the index has traced for the past several months. Still, even when normalizing for business days, June emerged as the single busiest in-office month since COVID began in March 2020.
Nationwide Office Index, June 2026
| Total Visits | Avg. Visits Per Working Day |
|---|---|
|
Compared to June 2019
Pre-pandemic
▼21.0%
|
Compared to June 2019
Pre-pandemic
▼24.8%
|
|
Compared to June 2025
Year over year
▲8.5%
|
Compared to June 2025
Year over year
▲3.3%
|
Click a key in the legend below to show or hide either line.
Market-level data shows that many analyzed metros – including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Miami – reached new post-pandemic office attendance highs in June after adjusting for the number of working days. But Miami was the clear June RTO winner, with office visits surpassing 2019 levels. Critically, this is still an estimation, and it remains to be seen how Miami’s recovery will continue to play out over the long term. Still, the obvious takeaway is that the Florida hub – which has also seen the lowest vacancy rate of any major U.S. office market in recent months – is in an especially strong position as the RTO continues.
Every major market also posted YoY visit growth, with Los Angeles leading the pack. The market was lapping a soft June 2025, when local protests disrupted commuting routines – though L.A.’s solid showing in recent months suggests the jump reflects more than an easy comparison. San Francisco ranked second, continuing the momentum that made it the YoY growth leader in May. And Chicago also logged a substantial YoY gain, moving into the middle of the post-pandemic recovery pack as its downtown office market recorded its first vacancy decline in fifteen quarters in Q2 2026.
With California's four-day mandate for state workers taking effect July 1, and full-time office requirements set to roll out this September at employers including Fidelity and TikTok, the second half of 2026 may bring fresh RTO tailwinds. Will these policies push the recovery even further ahead? And will Miami's move above pre-COVID levels hold over time? Time will tell.
For more data-driven RTO insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
