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Planet Fitness at the 2024 Halfway Point
Gym visits flourished at the start of 2024, as consumers made their yearly New Year's resolutions and flocked to fitness clubs nationwide. But how did category leaders fare in Q2 2024? We dove into the data to find out, zooming in on Planet Fitness, a major player in the fitness space.
Ezra Carmel & Noam Maman
Jul 29, 2024
3 minutes

Gym visits flourished at the start of 2024, as consumers made their yearly New Years resolutions and flocked to fitness clubs nationwide. But how did category leaders fare in Q2 2024? We dove into the data to find out – zooming in on Planet Fitness, a major player in the fitness space.

Planet Fitness Sees YoY Visits Rise in H1 2024

Throughout H1 2024, Planet Fitness experienced consistent YoY visit growth, finishing out Q2 2024 with a quarterly increase of 6.3% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though some of this visit growth is due to Planet Fitness’ ongoing expansion, the average number of visits to each of the chain’s gyms also increased YoY during most of the analyzed period.

Planet Fitness Expands and Grows Visits without Diluting Demand for Existing Clubs

Starting the Week on a Roll

Indeed, only in March and May 2024 did the average number of visits to each Planet Fitness location decline YoY. And a look at the weekly breakdown of visits to Planet Fitness shows that these declines may be due, in part, to calendar shifts. 

Location analytics reveal that though some people like to hit the gym on weekends, many customers prefer to get their exercise in on regular work days, especially at the start of the week: Throughout H1 2024, Planet Fitness drew the most visits on Mondays (17.4% of weekly visits), Tuesdays (17.7%), and Wednesdays (17.2%), with attendance dropping steadily as the week wore on. And both March and May 2024 – the two months that saw visits per location decline YoY – contained fewer non-holiday Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays than the equivalent periods of 2023.

Planet Fitness Sees More Visits on Weekdays - Mon, Tues, and Wed Busiest

An Increasingly Loyal Visitor Base 

Planet Fitness’ continued visit success appears to be driven, in part, by its growing share of frequent visitors. Gym visitation is highly seasonal – with visits slumping during the holidays and then spiking in January, as people vow to double down on exercise routines. 

A look at changes in the share of Planet Fitness visitors hitting the gym at least four times per month (roughly, once a week) reveals a similar pattern. The share of frequent visitors is at its highest in January, remains elevated through April or May, and declines as the year draws to a close. (January 2022 deviated from this pattern, likely due to the Omicron resurgence.)

Despite these seasonal fluctuations, the share of visitors making weekly stops at Planet Fitness has been on an overall upward trajectory – going higher each year between 2021 and 2023. And though this rise leveled off in 2024 amidst a stabilizing fitness market, frequent visitor rates remained high in 2024, with some months seeing continued YoY increases. This elevated loyalty is good news for Planet Fitness – since more engaged customers are more likely to renew or even upgrade their memberships. 

Planet Fitness Sustains High Loyalty in 2024

Looking Ahead

With value still top of mind for many consumers, Planet Fitness’ famously low prices have positioned the chain for success. Will this positive momentum continue as consumers adjust to the chain’s first basic membership price increase in 26 years? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.

*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.

Article
What First Half 2024 Visit Trends Tell Us About What to Expect in the Second Half
R.J. Hottovy
Jul 26, 2024

Now that we’ve cleared the halfway point for 2024 with retailers preparing for back-to-school shopping (and Q2 2024 reporting season), we thought we’d take stock of where we stand from a retail category perspective. Last year, we looked at visit per location data by retail category at the halfway point for the year, which proved to be a useful indicator for what to expect for the rest of the year. We thought we’d revisit the analysis to give some perspective of what to expect in the months to come.

Needless to say, it’s been another volatile year for most retailers, with a tepid start to the year due to weather, followed by solid event/holiday spending in February/March, and a lackluster April (though partly the result of the Easter holiday calendar shift). May, June, and July visitation data offered some encouraging signs, with year-over-year visits increasing to a mid-single-digit level (according to Placer's Industry Trends report). Importantly, increased visits won’t necessarily translate into the same level of sales increases, as visits are continuously being driven by deals/lower price points for many categories.

Based on the positive trendline for retail in general, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the majority of the 25 retail categories we’ve presented show positive growth from a visit per location year-over-year perspective (below).

A few notable takeaways from the visit per location analysis:

  • Value grocery chains saw the largest increase in visit per location during the first half of the year, up 11% year-over-year. We’ve spoken at length about consumers’ focus on value this year–even as food-at-home prices have moderated–so it should not be a surprise to see this category seeing the most visits per location. Both Aldi and Trader Joe’s have been key contributors to the increase in visits per location.
  • Auto parts retail was one of the leading categories with respect to visits per location during the first half of 2024, but these trends may be moderating as we discuss below.
  • Like many of the categories seeing visit per location growth, consumers continue to seek out warehouse clubs for value. We also believe that visits from younger trade areas have contributed to the increase in warehouse club visits per location, which we recently analyzed.
  • Fitness was the top category for visit per location when we looked at pre- versus post-pandemic visit per location trend last year, but trends have moderated as consumers have pulled back on discretionary spending.
  • There were mixed results across the restaurant category, with fast casual and QSR seeing year-over-year gains in visits per location, casual dining running about even to a year ago, and specialty coffee and fine dining seeing year-over-year declines. The QSR and fast casual gains largely reflect consumer’s focus on value, although the visit per location gains started to slow from March-May amid more competitive pricing from grocery stores, c-stores, and casual dining. However, with the rise of $5 bundled meals across the QSR category, we’ve seen visit per location trends rebound a bit in June (and into July). Specialty coffee is down year-over-year but is largely the result of fewer visits from “occasional” Starbucks visitors (which have overshadowed the nice gains we’ve seen from many drive-thru coffee chains this year). Fine dining is down year-over-year, but we continue to see visit per location gains for major holidays and events.
  • The decline in movie theaters is not surprising given the lack of tentpole releases this year. However, these trends should improve amid a stronger release schedule.

Last year, our midpoint visit per location trends gave us some ideas as to how the second half of the year might shake out. Based on our first half 2024 visitation data, we expect (1) consumers to continue prioritize value in the second half of the year, especially those chains that have been able to create excitement/newness for their value assortment; (2) consumers will continue to prioritize holidays/events, which bodes well for back-to-school, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas; (3) we will continue to see better balance between experiences and goods this year (as we've discussed in the past).

Article
Target: Circle Week Shows Signs of Success
Elizabeth Lafontaine
Jul 26, 2024

Retailer summer deals are in full swing, with promotional events like Amazon Prime Day and Nordstrom Anniversary Sale, Target Circle Week, and Macy’s All Star Week taking place over the past two weeks. The summer has come to signify the first large scale, cross-industry retailer push to engage with consumers and also test new promotional strategies with shoppers.

Target’s reinvigoration of its loyalty program, Target Circle, launched in April as a streamlined program with more perceived value for members and created a new paid tier called Target Circle 360. Target Circle Week, which took place between July 7-13, focused more on loyalty program members than previous iterations of the event to drive visits by loyal shoppers. The retailer promoted items across discretionary and essential categories, an effort meant to offset the challenges in the discretionary side of the business this year. Mass merchants have been especially challenged compared to warehouse clubs in the superstore category, and Circle Week, especially as the first event of the retailer's summer deals, is a barometer of what’s to come.

According to our foot traffic measurements, Target Circle Week was successful in driving incremental traffic growth, resulting in the highest percentage of growth in visits so far in 2024 on a year-over-five-year basis.

Circle Week also saw a slightly higher dwell time, with visitors spending an average of 29 minutes in store, about a minute higher than 2024 year to date. The week performed well in visits exceeding 45 minutes compared to the year-to-date percentage of visits, which could signal that shoppers coming in for deals spend longer browsing and purchasing. There was also a higher percentage of weekday visits during Circle Week compared to 2024 overall, a promising sign for the week-long event.

Looking specifically at individual store locations that over performed during Circle Week, one that stood out is Target’s original large format store location in Katy, TX. This location opened in fall 2022 to much fanfare; it features a larger curbside pick-up area, multiple shop-in-shop concepts, and a larger grocery footprint. Traffic to the Katy location also increased the most in the week of July 8-14, but it far exceeded the total traffic growth to Target, with visits up almost 55% compared to the same week in 2023, when Target’s event ran last year. Circle Week also kept visitors in store longer at the Katy location, with dwell times increasing by 2 minutes on average compared to 2024 year-to-date.

With the success of this event in bringing in visitors, it will be interesting to see how Target tries to maintain the momentum through the back half of the year. With the announcement of price cuts and a renewed focus on providing as much value as possible to consumers, the enhanced Target Circle program appears to be bolstering those initiatives. As we get further away from the other retailer deal day events as well, we will be able to fully examine the effectiveness of this year’s summer promotional period and also provide more observations as we approach the holiday season.

Article
Return to Office Insights: Miami and New York in the Lead
Caroline Wu
Jul 26, 2024

Using Placer's Return to Office report, we see that Miami continues to be the champion when it comes to returning to office.  With a whopping 88% recovery rate, it is heads above the other cities, with NYC coming in at 73% for the month of June. Rounding out the top 5 recoveries are Southern cities like Atlanta (66%), Charlotte (64%), and Forth Worth (64%). These cities are all above the nationwide average for return-to-office, which is 63%.

By contrast, two of the major West Coast cities--San Francisco and Los Angeles lag below the nationwide return rate at 45% and 55%, respectively.

Other major cities in the Midwest, like Chicago and Detroit, are seeing similar rates of lagging return-to-office. In Chicago, 55% have returned compared to Jan 2020 and in Detroit, only 42%.

Moving over to the East Coast, Philadelphia and Washington DC--both at 57% RTO--are also below the nationwide average.

The good news for offices is that taken as a whole, we are seeing upward trends in employees returning to office, albeit perhaps slower than those in commercial real estate or the C-suite would like.

Article
Bass Pro Shops: What's Driving Recent Visit Gains?
Caroline Wu
Jul 26, 2024

It’s often a good sign when Placer data reflects positive year-over-year growth and in the case of Bass Pro Shops, that’s exactly what we’re seeing for the months of June 2023-June 2024 (note April is down, but that is partially due to last year’s April having five weekends instead of four).

Bass Pro Shops skipped a slight beat immediately after COVID in spring 2020, but by early summer had already regained its store traffic as everyone took to the great outdoors in their quest for social distancing. Ever since, it’s been business as usual with similar peaks around Black Friday weekend and the week before Christmas.

Bass Pro Shop’s footprint is particularly strong in the eastern half of the US.  They acquired Cabela’s a few years back and maintained the separate brands.  This acquisition gave them an additional presence in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain states.

Both brands over index for the segments Blue Collar Suburbs, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, Suburban Boomers, and Wealthy Suburban Families per Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. Small Town and Rural High Income also over index at Cabela’s.

Article
Serving Summer 2024: RBI and Yum! Brands Q2 Foot Traffic
How are RBI and Yum! Brands leading chains faring at the year’s midway point? We dove into the data to find out.
Ezra Carmel & Addison Southerland
Jul 25, 2024
3 minutes

RBI and Yum! Brands hold some of America’s favorite restaurants in their portfolios. How are these parent companies and their leading chains faring at the year’s midway point? We dove into the data to find out.

Key Takeaways

  • In Q2 2024, ongoing expansion helped to drive RBI’s 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) visit increase and a 2.2% YoY rise in visits per location.
  • RBI’s visit leader – Burger King – experienced 4.3% visit-per-location growth in Q2 2024, highlighting the success of the restaurant’s rightsizing strategy. 
  • Visits to Taco Bell – which accounted for 70.5% of visits to Yum! Brands in Q2 2024 – increased 5.0% YoY during the quarter. 
  • Taco Bell’s recent “Taco Tuesday” promotions gave significant foot traffic boosts to the chain, positively affecting Tuesday visitation even after the promotions ended.

RBI’s Expansions Fuel a Strong Q2

RBI shined in Q2 2024 – seeing a 1.7% increase in visits and a 2.2% increase in visits per location, YoY – due partly to expanding footprints across several of its brands. 

Firehouse, Popeyes, and Tim Hortons’ growth likely played a part in overall visit gains to each chain during the quarter. And though Popeyes and Tim Hortons saw minor visit-per-location gaps emerge as the chains added new locations, the fact that this metric remained nearly on par with last year’s levels shows that the chains’ expansions are not diluting existing demand. Both Popeyes and Tim Hortons are likely to see YoY visits per location pick up as each of their new restaurants gains momentum. 

RBI Chains See Q2 2024 Visit Growth as Firehouse Subs and Burger King Also Increased Visits per Location

Burger King Sees Rightsizing Efforts Pay Off

Accounting for 69.3% of visits to RBI in Q2 2024, Burger King’s positive foot traffic during the period had a significant impact on its parent company’s success.

RBI management cited equipment upgrades, remodels and advertising as recent drivers of visit growth for Burger King – which despite the shuttering of dozens of underperforming restaurants over the past year, saw a 1.5% chain-wide YoY visit increase in Q2 2024.  

And analyzing visit-per-location trends at Burger King shows that the chain’s rightsizing strategy is paying dividends: Since Q2 2023, YoY visits per location have been on a steady incline, closing out Q2 2024 with a 4.3% increase. This indicates that as individual Burger King locations have shut their doors, the remaining restaurants have gotten even busier.  

Burger King Sees Viist Recovery and Increased Avg. Visits per Location As Chain Continues its Rightsizing Efforts

Yum! Growth: Follow the Taco

Taco Bell, which accounted for 70.5% of visits to Yum! Brands' restaurants in Q2 2024, drove visits to Yum! in much the same way that Burger King gave a boost to RBI. During the quarter, visits to Taco Bell increased 5.0% YoY while visits per location rose 3.5%. And the taco chain propelled foot traffic growth for Yum! Brands as a whole – with YoY visits and visits per location up a respective 3.1% and 3.5% in Q2 2024. 

Yum!'s Pizza Hut and Taco Bell See Strong Visit and Visits per Location Growth in Q2 2024

Taco Bell Innovation and Promotions Helping to Provide a Boost

Taco Bell is the leader in Yum! Brands’ portfolio for good reason. The chain is well-known as one of the world’s most innovative companies. And the taco leader appears to have done it again with “Taco Tuesday” specials. On the Tuesdays of March 26th, April 9th, and April 16th, 2024 the chain offered select menu-favorites for $1 for one hour. This promotion led into a separate $5 Dollar Taco Discovery Box deal, which was available on “Taco Tuesdays” between April 23rd and June 4th, 2024. 

The data suggests that both of these promotions drove substantial foot traffic. Beginning on March 26th, Tuesday visits to Taco Bell rose significantly compared to the H1 2024 Tuesday average. And even after the promotions ended, “Taco Tuesdays” retained their draw –  perhaps aided by the subsequent launch of a summer menu and the company’s formal entrance into the value meal wars with its much-vaunted Luxe Craving’s Box.

Taco Bell Got a Visit Boost During Taco Tuesday Promotions

RBI and Yum! On a Run

Led by their flagship restaurants, RBI and Yum! Brands appear to be on the right track. The strategic expansion of certain chains and the rightsizing of others has paid off in visit growth for RBI, while Yum! continues to strike it big with Taco Bell’s winning promotions. 

For more dining updates, visit Placer.ai

Reports
INSIDER
Report
3 Trends Shaping the Grocery Sector Right Now
Discover the 2025 grocery sector trends driving growth across value, fresh, traditional, and ethnic formats. Learn how shifting consumer behavior, bifurcated spending, and short-trip missions are reshaping retail competition.
Placer Research
September 22, 2025

Key Takeaways 

1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.

2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.

3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.

4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.

5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.

6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth

Growth Across Grocery Formats

Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.

Value Grocers Growth Slows as Trade-Down Effect Matures

Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.

Affluent Shoppers Drive Major Gains for Fresh-Format Grocers

Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.

Bifurcation of Spending Reshaping Grocery

The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.

Bottom Line: 

1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.

2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.

3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.

4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).

5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.

6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.

7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.

Consumers Turn to Different Grocery Formats for Different Needs

The Rise of Short Trips

Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.

Fresh Formats Capture Quick Missions

One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.

Traditional Grocers Built on Loyalty

In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts. 

Value Grocers as “Fill-In” Players

Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.

Bottom Line: 

1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.

2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.

3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.

4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.

5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.

The Right Strategy Can Drive Growth For Traditional Grocers 

Traditional Grocers Can Still Win

While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.

Different Paths, Same Focus

These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.

Bottom Line: 

1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.

2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.

3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.

INSIDER
Report
Emerging Trends for CRE in 2025
This Placer Snapshot examines the evolution of key industries impacting commercial real estate. We explore the shifting dynamics of office visits, the recovery of shopping centers, and population growth patterns across the United States in 2025.
August 28, 2025
INSIDER
Report
A New Era for Retail Giants: Who’s Winning in 2025?
Find out how the Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco's hyper growth have changed the retail landscape and see how Walmart and Target can stay competitive in today's value-driven market.
August 21, 2025

Key Takeaways:

1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape. 

2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.

3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.

4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.

5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.

6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.

Shifting Retail Dynamics

Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.

This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape. 

The New Competitive Landscape

Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco's Hypergrowth Since 2019 

In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores. 

This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.

Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.

The Role of Each Retail Giant in the Wider Retail Ecosystem

Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping. 

Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart. 

By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco. 

Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.

As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.

Cross-Shopping on the Rise Despite Visit Share Shuffle

Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.

This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.

Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.

But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.

The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition. 

Competition For Visit Frequency in a Fragmented Retail Landscape 

Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between  January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks. 

But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.

Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers. 

Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its  already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall. 

Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.

The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants. 

The Path Forward

The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top. 

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