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In a dining segment that has faced more than its fair share of headwinds, The Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse have emerged as bright spots. We took a closer look at how the two chains have performed over the past year, and dove into some of the factors driving their success.
The full-service dining segment has seen turbulence since the pandemic, with many consumers embracing lower-cost meal options and redirecting their discretionary dollars. But the Cheesecake Factory – marked as a chain to watch this year – is one FSR that’s been particularly adept at weathering the storm. During the third quarter of 2024, visits to the chain were up 2.0% YoY, even as the wider FSR segment experienced a minor visit decline. And by continuing to offer a consistent, high-quality dining experience – while investing in staff retention to keep customer satisfaction higher than ever – the brand appears poised to continue growing its customer base.
BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse is another FSR chain that has been outperforming the wider segment. Like its cheesecake counterpart, BJ’s offers an especially varied menu – including its famous Pizookie dessert and a massive selection of craft beers. And after seeing a minor 1.7% YoY visit decline in Q2 2024, the chain finished out Q3 with an impressive 4.2% YoY uptick.
What’s driving the resilience of these two chains while others in the category struggle? We explored two factors driving this foot traffic success.
One factor that may be helping The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s Restaurant drive traffic is their ability to harness the power of annual dining milestones. Special calendar days can be powerful drivers of foot traffic at restaurants, offering chains a prime opportunity to grow visits – and sales.
But the two chains experience these milestones somewhat differently. For BJ’s Restaurant, the weeks of Mother’s Day (week of May 6th) and Father’s Day (week of June 10th) drew the most traffic during the last twelve months, with visits during these holidays rising 18.2% and 14.1%, respectively, compared to an October ‘23 - September ‘24 weekly visit average.
But for The Cheesecake Factory, it was the period right after Christmas that drew the biggest crowds. During the week of December 25th, 2023, visits were up 24.5% compared to the chain’s weekly average – likely driven in part by customers eager to redeem holiday gift cards. (Last year, the chain offered a special holiday gift card promotion, which went into effect in late November). Other calendar days, like Mother’s Day, Valentine’s Day, and National Cheesecake Day (week of July 29th), also provided the restaurant with substantial visit boosts.
Another factor that may be contributing to both brands’ better-than-average performance is their appeal among higher-income consumers. Using the Experian: Mosaic dataset to analyze The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s trade areas reveals that both chains see higher shares of wealthy families in their captured markets than in their potential markets. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base.)
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Flourishing Families” in the Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s captured markets stood at 9.5% and 10.9%, respectively – outpacing their potential market shares. Similarly, the “Booming with Confidence” segment – wealthy, established couples living in suburban areas – was overrepresented in both restaurants’ captured markets.
These metrics highlight the two chains' success in attracting high-income family segments – groups who may be more resilient to the impacts of rising prices. For this consumer group, these restaurants strike a balance between quality and cost-effectiveness, making them a compelling choice for dining out in an uncertain economic landscape.
The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s have found ways to thrive in a challenging dining environment, keeping foot traffic up and tapping into a receptive customer base.
With the holiday season around the corner, can these two chains maintain their foot traffic growth? Will The Cheesecake Factory see another major holiday season visit spike?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
2024 has been a tough year for quick-service restaurants (QSRs), with rising costs, inflation, and changing consumer preferences putting pressure on the industry. And as if these challenges weren’t enough, incursions into the convenient meal space by c-stores, fast-casual restaurants, and even grocery chains have forced QSRs to contend with increased competition.
But visit data shows that despite these headwinds, fast food leaders like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are holding their ground. During the first three quarters of 2024, both McDonald’s and Wendy’s experienced visit levels generally on par with those seen last year, with minimal year-over-year (YoY) variation. Despite a minor dip for McDonald's in Q2, when visits dropped by 2.2% compared to 2023, the overall difference in visit levels for both chains was less than 1% across the remaining quarters.
This stability highlights the ability of both brands to retain a steady flow of traffic despite competitive pressures and economic challenges.
One strategy QSRs have successfully deployed to entice hungry customers has been the introduction of discounted limited-time offers (LTOs). And following summer LTOs that garnered plenty of excitement, McDonald’s and Wendy’s are back in the limited-time game. On October 8th, 2024, Wendy's launched its Krabby Patty Kollab, celebrating the 25th anniversary of SpongeBob SquarePants with two limited-time items. Meanwhile, McDonald’s introduced the Chicken Big Mac on October 10th, expanding its menu with an item that had already gained global recognition.
While both launches positively impacted visitation, Wendy's limited-time menu had a more pronounced effect. Wendy’s saw a dramatic surge in visits in the wake of the Kollab, with an increase of 26.4% on the Tuesday of the Krabby Patty launch, compared to a year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. The following Wednesday and Thursday also saw increases of 20.7% and 23.9%, respectively, compared to the YTD daily average for those days of the week.
And though the response to McDonald’s menu addition was somewhat more restrained, the limited-time chicken offering also generated a visit increase: On the Thursday of the launch, McDonald’s saw visits jump by 7.9% compared to the chain’s YTD Thursday visit average – showing the power of limited-time items to generate excitement and urgency among consumers.
In addition to new menu items, McDonald’s has placed a strong emphasis on its breakfast offerings – a strategic focus that has grown more pronounced throughout 2024. By expanding its breakfast menu, offering healthier alternatives, and promoting limited-time deals, McDonald’s has successfully driven morning traffic. The introduction of CosMc's, a new McCafé spinoff, further boosts the company’s breakfast and coffee offerings, appealing to a broader audience seeking affordable beverages and quick meals.
And McDonald’s breakfast strategy appears to be paying off. In 2024, 24.8% of McDonald’s daily visits occurred between 5:00 AM and 11:00 AM – compared to just 8.5% for Wendy’s. Wendy’s, for its part, had a stronger foothold in the lunchtime segment, with the 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM time slot accounting for 27.5% of visits, compared to 21.2% for McDonald’s.
Both McDonald’s and Wendy’s have displayed resilience in maintaining steady customer visits, with menu innovations and breakfast strategies playing a significant role in shaping their traffic patterns in 2024.
How will the two quick-service giants sign off this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Sprouts Farmers Market, the Phoenix, Arizona-based natural foods chain with some 419 locations across 23 states – up from 391 in July 2023 – is firmly in expansion mode. The chain reported a strong Q2 2024, including a 6.7% increase in comparable store sales.
But how did Sprouts perform in Q3? We dove into the data to find out.
Given its rapidly-growing footprint, Sprouts’ strong year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth – 8.1% in Q3 2024, far above the industry average of 1.6% – may seem unremarkable. After all, a bigger fleet means more locations to contribute to the chain’s overall visit count. But for Sprouts, expansion is just part of the story. Throughout Q3 and most of Q2, the average number of visits to each of Sprouts Farmers Market’s locations also increased YoY, showing that the chain’s growing store count is meeting robust demand. And though the wider grocery space also saw a YoY uptick in visits per location, the increase was significantly lower (1.0% in Q3 for the segment as a whole, compared to 2.6% for Sprouts).
What can Sprouts expect this holiday season? In the past, location analytics have shown that while Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is a major milestone for traditional grocery stores, specialty grocers like Trader Joe’s see smaller visit peaks on the big day.
But though Sprouts Farmers Market is certainly positioned as a specialty grocer, it is somewhat more akin to a traditional supermarket than key competitors like Trader Joe’s. For one thing, Sprouts boasts a wider array of merchandise than Trader Joe’s – including a huge selection of fresh, organic fruits and vegetables. And while Sprouts has been leaning heavily into its growing portfolio of private-label products, they still account for a minority of the chain’s revenue (In Q2 2024, just about 20% of Sprouts’ revenue came from private-label items – while at Trader Joe’s, some 80% of products sold are own-label.)
Perhaps as a result of these differences, consumers interact with Sprouts in some ways as they would with a traditional supermarket – including during the holidays. On November 22nd, 2023, for example (last year’s Turkey Wednesday), visits to Sprouts were up 61.3% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period ending September 30th, 2024 – making it Sprouts’ busiest day of the year by far. Though this jump was smaller than the 79.2% visit spike seen by the wider grocery store category, it was significantly larger than the 41.8% boost experienced by Trader Joe’s – which draws more traffic on the day before Mother’s Day. (December 23rd was the second-busiest day of the year for all three.)
Additionally, like traditional grocery stores, Sprouts Farmers Market attracts more parental households, and fewer singles, than Trader Joe’s – another reason, perhaps, why it’s so busy on Turkey Wednesday.
Over the past twelve months, the share of families with children in Sprouts’ captured market stood at 27.8% – higher than Trader Joe’s 25.4% and in line with the industry-wide average of 27.4%. On the flip side, the share of one-person households in Sprouts’ captured market was 26.2%, lower than Trader Joe’s 29.5%, and once again more closely aligned with the somewhat-higher 27.7% observed for the grocery category as a whole. As a family-friendly chain that caters to parents on the hunt for healthy food items, Sprouts will likely be a key destination this year for households seeking to load up on ingredients for the holidays.
*Captured market analysis weights each census block group (CBG) feeding visits to the chain according to its share in the chain’s overall foot traffic – thus reflecting the profile of the chain’s actual visitor base.
Sprouts Farmers Market is a specialty grocer– but one that is often treated like a traditional supermarket. With stellar YoY visit and visit-per-location performance under its belt, Sprouts appears poised to be a stand-out beneficiary of both Turkey Wednesday and the day before Christmas Eve (December 23rd) this year. What else lies in store for Sprouts this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Fast-casual dining chain CAVA has had a great few years. The restaurant chain, which serves up health and flavor-forward Mediterranean fare, has increased its footprint massively over the past few years, and shows no signs of slowing down.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for the fast-casual dining chain.
CAVA, which has been opening restaurants at a rapid clip, is firmly in expansion mode. The restaurant chain featured 341 restaurants at the end of Q2 2024 – up from roughly 300 at the end of 2023 – and has set its sights on operating 1,000 locations by 2032.
Partly as a result of its growing footprint, CAVA’s foot traffic – already elevated in 2023 – has continued to surge throughout 2024. The chain achieved double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every month of the year so far, with September visits up 24.9% YoY. By comparison, the broader fast-casual dining sector – which is also thriving – saw more modest YoY visit growth over the same period, as well as some minor YoY declines in January and September.
Still, though much of CAVA’s YoY foot traffic growth may be attributed to its rapid expansion – after all, more restaurants mean more opportunities for diners to try a lemon chicken or harissa avocado bowl – CAVA’s individual locations are also drawing more traffic. In all but one month of 2024 – January, when inclement weather led to a retail slowdown nationwide – the average number of visits to each CAVA restaurant also rose significantly. And in August and September 2024, visits per location grew by 15.0% and 9.9% YoY, respectively.
These trends suggest that CAVA’s expansion strategy is leaning into robust demand – and has succeeded in generating excitement and visit growth in both new and existing markets.
One factor that may be helping CAVA drive traffic is the growing diversity of its customer base. Analyzing changes in CAVA’s captured market over time with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that the median household income (HHI) of the brand’s visitor base has dropped over the past few years. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each census block group (CBG) in its trade area according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of the business’ actual visitor base.) In Q3 2021, the median HHI of CAVA’s captured market was $107.5k – much higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. But as the chain has expanded, the median HHI of its visitor base has steadily declined, reaching $92.3K by Q3 2024.
Similarly, using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to look at the psychographic makeup of CAVA’s trade areas reveals that the share of “Ultra-Wealthy Families” in the chain’s captured market has also declined – from 22.9% 2021 to 17.1% in 2024. At the same time, the share of “Young Urban Singles” grew from 5.4% to 7.3%.
This shift suggests that as CAVA expands, it is welcoming a broader and more diverse customer base – positioning it for continued growth as it opens new locations.
CAVA continues to exceed expectations, opening stores at a rapid clip while maintaining visit numbers and appealing to an ever-growing range of customers.
What might the final quarter of the year hold in store for the fast-casual chain?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
If you’ve been to your local recreation center or even shopping center lately, pickleball is definitely still going on strong. Invented in 1965 on Bainbridge Island, for many decades it was considered more of a seniors’ recreational activity. But with the recent explosion of interest and proliferation of courts, we may be about to see the same snowboarding vs skiing battle that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, except instead of the young punks carving down the slopes, it’s people of all ages carving out Pickleball courts with tape to the dismay of their tennis-loving brethren and sound-sensitive neighbors.
According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), “pickleball continues to be the fastest growing sport in America, having grown 51.8% from 2022 to 2023 and an incredible 223.5% in 4 years since 2020.” The sport has some similarities to tennis, table tennis, and badminton, but one reason it has become so popular is the social nature of it - often played as doubles - and the fact that since the court is smaller, there’s less running to engage in, but there is still the excitement of rapid volleying. The ability to serve underhand also makes it more accessible to new players.
Pickleball America bills itself as “one of the largest indoor pickleball venues in America” and with 80,000 sq ft at the Stamford Town Center, it clearly can live up to that claim. With clever events like “Dinko de Mayo” or resident events to bring a nearby living community together, pickleball could just be the glue that starts to bring people together for socialization and cure the loneliness epidemic. Indoor pickleball venues can also be a source of family fun, with lounges and fresh popcorn available, as well as foosball, table tennis, and essential board games.
Another sport that may be giving tennis and pickleball a run for its money is padel. This sport has the unique benefit of one being able to hit shots off the fence or wall, often made of glass or mesh, that is at the perimeter. So now we’re talking 3D thinking as one figures out what angles to hit.
One can fit about 2 padel courts on a tennis court, and up to 4 pickleball courts on a tennis court. So from an economics perspective, you can definitely charge for more people when playing padel or pickleball. Padel is described more as a mix of tennis, squash, and badminton and is the fastest-growing sport globally with over 25 million players in 90+ countries, per PadAthletes. At P1 Padel in Las Vegas, NV, the most popular times to frequent are in the evening from 6-8 PM. There is also a morning contingent between 9-11 AM.
Padel players at this location are quite loyal, with a majority coming 30+ times in the past 12 months.
With pickleball and padel nipping at its heels, the USTA (US Tennis Association) is fighting back with its own version of more accessible tennis, namely “red ball.” With a smaller court, a smaller racket, and balls that are up to 75% slower, this version helps newbies obtain control over the ball more quickly and has less ground to cover for those lateral runs and quick pivots. Schroeder Tennis Center in Tipp City, OH is one such location that is participating in this USTA pilot program. The bulk of visits are between 4-8 pm, which are prime post-school or post-work hours. According to the Tennis Industry Association, 23.8 million Americans ages 6 and older played tennis at least once in 2023 and 25.1 million Americans who didn’t play tennis in 2023 are “very interested” in doing so now.
Tennis has a long and storied history and iconic locations like Wimbledon and Roland Garros. What young tennis player doesn’t dream of their moment on Center Court? Tennis also has associations with country clubs and networking. It will likely remain the king of racquet sports. But these two new princes of pickleball and padel prove that tennis cannot just rest on its laurels but will need to evolve in order to stay competitive.
We’re in the midst of not only the beginning of the holiday season in retail, but also at the peak of wedding season. September and October are now the most popular months to get married, and fall weddings have become extremely popular with younger generations. Wedding planning encompasses so many different occasions, events and appointments, but none more important than wedding dress shopping.
The bridal retail space across the U.S. is incredibly fragmented, with much of the business being done by local boutiques and small chains with a handful of stores. However, there are still major retailers in the market and more entering each year. Brands in apparel have especially taken note with Abercrombie & Fitch, Reformation and e-commerce brands like Lulus all making a play at capturing a bride’s attention.
Two larger, more established forces in bridal retail include David’s Bridal and Anthropologie Weddings (formerly known as BHLDN). Both concepts have distinct value propositions for their consumers, but both aim at providing an elevated assortment and experience that is also value oriented. As value continues to be a motivating factor across all consumer decision making, both of these retailers have seen positive momentum in 2024.
Looking at year-over-year change in visitation, Anthropologie Weddings locations have consistently seen traffic growth in 2024 and have outperformed the total chain from a visitation perspective. The wedding shop is not located in all Anthropologie stores, but the stores that do have the concept cater to a higher income and trendy consumer; the location selection of towns such as Newport Beach, Westport, CT, and Newton, MA has certainly benefited the stores.
The median household income of visits to Anthropologie weddings is $117K compared to $94K chainwide. Despite the higher income profile of visitors to the wedding focused stores, Anthropologie Weddings still does appeal to value-conscious brides, despite socioeconomic status; most bridal gowns are under $2,500, which is still relatively affordable based on the industry standard.
Looking at the audience segmentation of visitors to Anthropologie Weddings compared to the total chain using PersonaLive, the wedding shops saw almost double the share of visits from Educated Urbanites, a key segment for a bridal business to not only capture, but convert. All of this highlights the success of the brand’s wedding strategy, from its location selection, to assortment and experience, which are distinctly Anthropologie, but also fitting of a special trip. Other retailers looking to make a splash in the bridal market should certainly look to Anthropologie as a case study in brand extension.
David’s Bridal had a challenging start to 2024, mirroring a few years of challenging foot traffic to its stores. However, around the midpoint of the year, there’s been an acceleration in visitation across the chain. Looking at visitation trends for 2023 and 2024, the brand started to close the gap in August. As a true value centered bridal retailer, the brand may have found its moment in the current economic climate.
Looking at the change in visitation throughout 2024, from January to July, on average, visits were down 32% YoY; from August through the most recent week, visits were down only 2% year-over-year. That’s a great improvement in trend against the backdrop of a challenging year, and even more interesting when thinking about the lead time brides have for ordering wedding gowns; most dresses for fall weddings would have been ordered in the winter or spring months, where David’s Bridal sees higher levels of visitation.
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The audience segmentation of the brand has also shifted over that time. Compared to 2023 as a benchmark, the period of August 2024 through present has seen a higher share of visits from Suburban Boomers and Melting Pot Families, and a slight increase in Young Professionals. The brand also stocks special occasion and homecoming dresses, which both could appeal to these groups.
Using Placer’s Frequent Co-Tenants report, David’s Bridal locations tend to be co-located with other specialty retailers, including Five Below, Ulta Beauty, and Ross Dress for Less, who are also value oriented and the latter two retailers have been doing well in securing more traffic. The stores may have benefits from their co-location with retailers that meet current consumer desires.
Weddings continue to be a big business across the U.S., and retailers that support the wedding industry have a lot of opportunities for growth, if they can find and appeal to the right consumer cohorts. Brides of all levels are looking for an elevated experience and selection, no matter her budget.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
