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With the year almost over, we dove into the visitation data for off-price leaders to see how the TJX chains, Burlington, and Ross Dress for Less are positioned ahead of the holidays.
The off-price segment continued to outperform the wider apparel category in recent months as consumers continued favoring budget-friendly retail outlets. Visits to TJX-owned T.J. Maxx and Marshalls as well as to Burlington remained elevated, with the three chains seeing YoY growth of 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4% in Q3 2024. And while Ross foot traffic declined slightly relative to 2023 in July, September, and October, the chain’s YoY visit gap remained significantly smaller than that of the wider apparel category.
And even as Ross lags slightly behind the rest of the off-price space, the chain leads the segment in one metric – the share of returning visitors every month. In Q3 2024, over half of Ross’ monthly visits came from visitors who visited the chain at least twice in the month, compared with 41.9% - 47.6% of visits from returning visitors for the other three off-price leaders.
This data indicates that Ross is already extremely successful at cultivating a loyal clientele that regularly visits the company’s stores – and adding new shoppers to its circle of dedicated customers could drive further YoY visit growth going forward.
Expansion has been a major driver of off-price growth in recent years. Since 2019, the four off-price chains analyzed have all greatly increased their brick-and-mortar footprints, leading to visit surges nationwide.
And impressively, T.J.Maxx, Marshalls, Burlington, and Ross have all managed to expand their physical reach dramatically without straying from their core audience. Diving into the four chains’ trade area demographics in Q3 2019 and Q3 2024 reveals that, even as the retailers’ store fleet configurations evolved, their trade area demographics remained strikingly consistent.
Since 2019, the share of large households in the retailers’ trade areas has remained remarkably steady – though all four brands have seen a slight increase in the share of 4+ person households. The trade areas’ median household incomes (HHIs) did shift slightly as the chains expanded – falling for T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and, to a lesser extent, Ross, while increasing somewhat for Burlington – but the change from 2019 has been minimal.
It seems, then, that these four off-price leaders have successfully grown their reach over the past five years while maintaining a strong connection with their core customer base, positioning them for continued sustained success in the competitive retail landscape.
As the holiday season approaches, the off-price retail sector remains resilient. The year-over-year growth and high loyalty rates seen by category leaders along with their success at expanding without alienating their core audiences positions these chains to remain a formidable force within the wider retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
The all-important fourth quarter of the year is underway, and leading beauty chains like Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply are gearing up for an exciting holiday shopping season. We dove into the data to see how the two chains have performed in recent months – and what they can expect in this year’s Q4 retail milestones.
In Q3 2024 (July - September), quarterly visits to Ulta and Sally Beauty were essentially on par with last year’s levels. Ulta saw a minor year-over-year (YoY) uptick of 1.2%, while Sally Beauty maintained a slight visit gap.
Diving into monthly visit trends, ever-expanding Ulta experienced positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the summer – especially in August, when an additional Saturday provided vacationers and back-to-school shoppers with extra weekend browsing time. And though visits to the chain dipped in September, they quickly bounced back again, with October seeing a 4.5% YoY visit boost likely bolstered by Halloween offerings and seasonal sales.
Sally Beauty, for its part, has been closing locations as part of a store optimization plan implemented largely in 2023. Viewed against this backdrop, the chain’s modest monthly visit gaps – which narrowed to just 0.2% in October 2024 – are particularly impressive. And Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. has remained nimble on its feet, testing new concepts like Happy Beauty Co., a new store format with cosmetics and other self-care products priced under $10.
For both chains, their October showing signals that eager customers are gearing up for a busy Q4.
But how do Ulta and Sally Beauty experience the holiday season? Which retail milestones resonate most strongly with their customers – and where do they see the most impressive holiday visit boosts?
Ulta Beauty leans heavily into Black Friday each year with early deals that culminate in a shopping bonanza on the day after Thanksgiving – and in 2023, the milestone was the chain’s busiest day of the year. On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ulta were up 270.6% compared to a 2023 daily average. The second-busiest day of the year for Ulta was Super Saturday (December 23rd, 2023), which saw a 219.0% visit bump.
Still, looking at major Ulta markets throughout the country reveals significant regional variation in holiday milestone visitation patterns. Like many other retailers, Ulta experiences bigger Black Friday visit bumps in midwestern metro areas like Chicago, and much smaller ones in California hubs like Los Angeles. And though Black Friday is more important for the chain than Super Saturday on a national level, several CBSAs – including Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles – saw bigger boosts on Super Saturday than on Black Friday.
Sally Beauty – with its more specialized focus on hair care products – sees smaller holiday visit bumps than Ulta. But the chain’s holiday deals do draw crowds. December 23rd was Sally Beauty’s busiest day last year, with visits up 86.2% nationwide and significantly elevated throughout the chain’s major markets. And though Black Friday is much less significant for the retailer – in 2023, it was only Sally Beauty’s 11th busiest day of the year – the chain’s Black Friday deals drove a 55.4% visit bump.
And visits aren’t the only thing that increase at Ulta and Sally Beauty during the holidays. Looking at driving distances to the two chains shows that on Q4 milestones – and especially Black Friday – people travel farther to shop the sales. On Black Friday 2023, and to a lesser extent Super Saturday, both retailers saw significant jumps in the share of visitors traveling more than 10 or 30 miles to visit their brick-and-mortar locations.
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Affordable luxuries like cosmetics and hair care products make the perfect stocking stuffers for consumers still concerned about high prices. And if last year’s holiday trends are any indication, Ulta and Sally Beauty appear poised to enjoy a very festive holiday season indeed.
Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven retail insights.
While Boston trails both the New York City and Nationwide Office Building Index in return-to-office rates, one standout related to office activity is the Newbury Street location of the Dutch brand Suitsupply. Visitation to this location saw steady growth from February to August this year.
When examining the three East Coast cities in the chart—Washington, D.C., New York, and Boston—Educated Urbanites make up nearly half of Suitsupply's trade area, according to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive data. In Boston specifically, there are also high indices for Near Urban Diverse Families and Young Professionals.
Both the Newbury St and Washington, DC Suitsupply locations saw the greatest gains compared to the prior year.
What might explain the gains in Boston? We have a few theories. First, Boston is a city where nearly a quarter of the population consists of students. The steady growth at the Newbury Street location from February to August could reflect students preparing for spring interviews, purchasing suits for summer internships, and later for weddings in late summer and early fall. Notably, a previous Anchor article highlighted that fall has become the most popular time of year for weddings. Additionally, the strong cohort of students and young professionals in their 20s and 30s may find the office environment particularly beneficial for camaraderie and mentorship. This group is also more likely to seek out—or at least be less resistant to—returning to the office compared to millennials and Gen X.
On a lighter note, there could be something lucky about this store, as it was the 100th location opened by the Amsterdam-based brand. From a quantitative perspective, year-over-year traffic to Newbury Street has increased over the past six months, with notable growth in June and August.
The importance of visual merchandising and the customer experience cannot be overlooked. A unique feature of Suitsupply is its in-store tailoring, often showcased prominently in the front window. This not only provides engaging "retail theater" but also reassures customers of the craftsmanship behind their suits. Some shoppers have even been drawn into the store out of curiosity sparked by seeing an artisan at work. Online reviews for the Boston location highlight customers' appreciation for attentive service, reasonable prices, meticulous attention to detail, and outstanding tailoring.
This week, we attended the Restaurant Finance & Development Conference (RFDC) in Las Vegas, a gathering of industry leaders including senior executives, real estate professionals, franchise groups, investors, and analysts. Similar to insights from last month’s Fast Casual Executive Summit, many operators acknowledged that 2024 has been a challenging year but expressed cautious optimism as they look ahead to 2025.
Restaurant operators have faced numerous headwinds this year, including inconsistent weather, heightened promotional activity across all tiers, increased competition from other food retail channels, elevated labor costs and shortages, and unfavorable lease terms contributing to a rise in bankruptcies. In Q3 2024, most restaurant chains experienced flat or declining visit-per-location trends, as shown below.
Still, some chains managed to achieve impressive growth in visitation per location this past quarter. Below, we highlight the top-performing limited-service restaurant chains (including QSR, fast casual, and coffee/beverage categories with more than 20 units) based on year-over-year visitation per location during Q3 2024.
The most striking takeaway from this chart is that these standout restaurant chains largely avoided the "value wars" seen across the industry this year. Instead, they leaned on menu innovation—chains like CAVA, Chipotle, and Wingstop introduced new offerings that didn’t overly complicate preparation—and operational excellence, particularly in drive-thru efficiency, with leaders such as 7 Brew, Raising Cane’s, In-N-Out, and Culver’s driving visit growth.
Reflecting on the success of these chains, it’s unsurprising that a major theme among restaurant operators at the RFDC event was maximizing returns from existing locations rather than prioritizing unit expansion in 2025. Many chains emphasized improving operations, including simplifying menus to boost throughput while still allowing limited-time offers to drive demand. Others highlighted technology-driven solutions, such as automated make lines and AI-powered voice ordering for drive-thrus. Additionally, executives explored alternative strategies to enhance unit-level returns, including expanded catering services and leveraging retail media opportunities.
What else is on restaurant operators’ minds as we look ahead to 2025?
The festive season is upon us, making it the perfect time to focus on a retail category that truly shines in Q4 2024: gifting, books, and paper. Despite the digital age, consumers continue to show a strong preference for shopping for these items in-store and still value tangible versions of these products. However, as discretionary retail faces challenges in meeting consumer expectations, has this category managed to capture consumer excitement and deliver delight amidst competing distractions and purchase priorities?
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
Barnes & Noble's consistent and sustainable traffic growth can be attributed to several successful initiatives. The retailer has expanded its product categories, doubled down on gifting, strengthened its position as a third space, and tapped into consumers' enduring love for books—all of which have set it apart in a challenging discretionary retail landscape. The effectiveness of these efforts is reflected in the chain's dwell time, which averages 37 minutes—nearly 10 minutes longer than any of the other chains reviewed—and excels at keeping visitors in-store for over 30 minutes.
Barnes & Noble has done an impressive job of evolving its visitor demographics over time, particularly in the face of the digital revolution and the disruption of the book category. The success of specialty retailers often reflects broader cultural movements and shifts in consumer preferences, and Barnes & Noble is no exception. According to PersonaLive customer segments, the chain has significantly increased its penetration of younger consumer segments, such as Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles, when comparing 2024 year-to-date with 2019. Factors contributing to this trend could include the rise of book club culture among younger cohorts, the appeal of working from the in-store café, and an expanded assortment of gifts and paper products for special occasions.
This focus on younger consumers seems to be paying off. In 2024, 6% of Barnes & Noble visitors also shopped at a Hallmark location, although only 1% visited Paper Source, its sister brand. The integration of Paper Source shop-in-shops within Barnes & Noble locations may be cannibalizing cross-visitation between the two standalone chains.
As for Paper Source, it shares many of the elements driving Barnes & Noble's success but faces challenges in fully unlocking its potential. One key differentiator is its invitation business, but as consumers increasingly turn to digital platforms like Facebook or Paperless Post for invitations, even the booming wedding market hasn’t been enough to significantly drive growth.
A significant challenge for Paper Source comes from competition within the superstore category. This year, 87% of Paper Source visitors also shopped at Target, and 63% visited Walmart. Both retailers have invested heavily in expanding their party supplies, cards, and gifting assortments, making it more convenient for shoppers to purchase these items during a single trip, rather than visiting a separate specialty store.
Paper Source has a strong demographic foundation to build upon as it works toward stabilization. According to PersonaLive, the chain significantly outperforms Barnes & Noble in visitation percentages among Ultra Wealthy Families, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites, with Ultra Wealthy Families accounting for nearly a quarter of its visitors. Its frequent co-tenants reflect similar socio-economic patterns, aligning with successful specialty chains that appeal to wealthier shoppers, such as lululemon, Sephora, Anthropologie, Warby Parker, Madewell, and Apple. With these favorable dynamics in place, Paper Source has an opportunity to thrive—success may depend on effective messaging and marketing to this affluent customer base.
The differences between Hallmark stores and The Paper Store highlight contrasting strategies: one chain has successfully expanded its product offerings to capture a more engaged audience, while the other remains closely tied to the traditional paper category and has struggled to do the same. There is little overlap in visitation between the two chains, suggesting that consumers may perceive The Paper Store as entirely separate from Hallmark, despite its status as a Gold Crown retailer.
The Paper Store’s elevated and expanded assortment has fostered stronger loyalty among its visitors compared to the Hallmark chain. In 2024, loyal visitors—defined as those visiting twice per month—accounted for 12% of The Paper Store’s visitors, 2 percentage points higher than Hallmark. Additionally, The Paper Store serves more as a destination, with 37% of visitors heading home afterward, also 2 points higher than Hallmark. By expanding its product categories and curating localized selections, The Paper Store has successfully differentiated itself from the traditional Hallmark model, a strategy that could benefit the national chain as well.
The gifting, book, and paper retail category demonstrates varied consumer behavior across chains. The success of Barnes & Noble and The Paper Store underscores the importance of expanding product assortments to attract visits, as consumers increasingly seek convenience by consolidating their purchases in fewer trips. While consumers may tolerate more frequent visits for essential retail, in specialty retail, convenience and variety are critical. The category’s overall resilience suggests that consumers still have discretionary spending power for the right products at the right time, offering hope for retailers still refining their approach.
The sporting goods and sportswear category has had a rough couple of months. Two mainstays in the space – Bob’s Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports – filed for bankruptcy in June, and several sportswear and athleisure leaders posted disappointing results. So is the consumer demand for leggings and sneakers waning? Or is the category merely facing a temporary slowdown? We dove into the data to find out.
With budgets still tight, many shoppers are turning to value apparel and value athletic wear – and this trading down may be impacting the sporting goods and sportswear space: Q3 2024 visits to most sporting goods and athletic wear chains analyzed, including DICK’s Sporting Goods, Athleta, Academy Sports + Outdoor, and Hibbett Sports, remained at or moderately below 2023 levels. Still, the relatively minimal visit gaps indicate that demand for the category remains stable and may rise again with increased consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, lululemon athletica saw a 7.6% increase in YoY visits in Q3 2024 thanks to the company’s ongoing expansion.
But even as the sporting goods and sportswear category may be facing a temporary lull, diving into the demographics of the trade areas for the various retailers reveals the variety of sporting goods and sportswear consumers – showing the varied demand for the category.
The median household income within the trade areas of the five chains analyzed ranged from $54.8K for Hibbett Sports to $108.3K for Athleta. The share of households with children within the trade areas also varied among the chains: DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Academy Sports + Outdoors included significantly more households with children in their captured markets when compared with Athleta, lululemon, or Hibbett Sports.
It seems, then, that each chain appeals to a specific consumer segment – DICK’s and Academy Sports both serve families, although DICK’s attracts the higher-income households and Academy Sports draws more middle-income shoppers. Lululemon and Athleta both operate at the higher-end of the athletic wear spectrum, but Athleta shoppers tend to come from slightly more affluent areas with larger household sizes. And Hibbett has carved out a niche among lower-income consumers.
Demand for sportswear and gym gear may not be as strong as it was at the height of the pandemic when gyms were closed and consumers were doubling down on comfort. But the variety of audiences within the category leaders’ trade areas indicates that appetite for athletic wear and sporting goods is still widespread. And with Black Friday around the corner, these chains – and especially the higher-priced retailers among them – may well get a boost from price-conscious consumers looking to snag discounts at their favorite premium chains.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
