.svg)
American Dream hosted the first ever JonasCon on March 23rd, 2025. How did the event impact visitation trends, and what does the success of JonasCon mean for the future of malls? We dove into the data to find out.
American Dream has emphasized the experiential potential of malls from its inception. The massive shopping, dining, and leisure venue includes a vast array of indoor and outdoor entertainment facilities such as a water park, an indoor ski slope, and an aquarium as well as numerous stores and restaurants. And although the mall – which opened just before the COVID pandemic – has dealt with its share of setbacks, recent data suggests that American Dream has turned a corner, with leasing picking up and year-over-year quarterly visits positive throughout 2024.
American Dream’s position as both a mall and an entertainment complex along with its location in New Jersey – the Jonas Brothers’ home state – made it the natural choice to host JonasCon, a one-day fan convention on March 23rd, 2025 celebrating the band’s twentieth anniversary.
The event proved to be a major success, with visits to American Dream surging 146.5% higher than the YTD average and 72.8% higher than a YTD Sunday. Visitors during JonasCon also stayed significantly longer in the mall, with the average visit on March 23rd lasting 220 minutes – almost four hours – compared to an average stay of 141 minutes for the YTD.
The JonasCon visit spike was driven in part by own-of-towners making the trip especially for the event. On March 23rd, over 25% of visitors to American Dream came from at least 50 miles away, compared to just 17.9% of visitors coming from 50+ miles away for the YTD average. The surge in overall visits, the extended dwell time, and the significant influx of out-of-towners directly translated to increased opportunities for spending across the entire venue.
The event also seems to have attracted more singles from more affluent households compared to American Dream’s regular visitor base: The mall’s trade area on March 23rd included fewer households with children and more one person and non-family households compared to the YTD average, and the trade area median household income (HHI) stood at $93.0K compared to the $89.9K median HHI for the YTD.
The popularity of JonasCon among the coveted demographic of affluent singles highlights how malls can target certain audiences by organizing specific happenings. Most malls offer something for everyone – American Dream in particular has a range of offerings for different age groups and at different price points, including a variety of free exhibits. But while providing options for almost any consumer creates the potential for a large and varied visitor base, certain demographics might need an extra nudge to come through the door for the first time. Offering unique experiences can help malls bring in certain groups of consumers that may be underrepresented in the mall’s regular visitor base – perhaps fostering return visits and growing their regular audience.
Through JonasCon, American Dream has once again cemented its position at the forefront of the experiential mall movement. The venue represents a broader trend as some malls evolve beyond transactional spaces to become centers of shared experience – whether through built-in elements or by offering unique experiences through one-off entertainment and events.
The success of JonasCon along with the ongoing visit growth at American Dream highlights the current consumer appetite for exciting and engaging offline experiences – and malls are extremely well positioned to meet this demand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
Dollar Tree's recently announced plan to sell Family Dollar at a significant loss is another sign of the recent struggles in the discount and dollar store sector, highlighted by last year’s closure of 99 Cents Only and Big Lots' bankruptcy filing. We dove into the data to understand what is driving Dollar Tree’s decision and what this means for Family Dollar moving forward.
The discount & dollar store category had been on the rise before the pandemic, and COVID gave the segment another considerable boost – in part thanks to discount and dollar stores’ designation as “essential retailers” that could remain open during lockdowns. Category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree continued their aggressive fleet expansions to meet the growing consumer demand, which led to a substantial overall increase in visits to the category.
But zooming in on 2024 data suggests that visit growth to the category is slowing down. Although discount & dollar stores are holding on to their pandemic gains – traffic to the segment is still 57.8% higher than it was in 2017 – year-over-year (YoY) growth is slowing, with 2024 visits up 2.8% compared to 2023, in contrast to 2022 and 2023’s YoY jumps of 7.8% and 7.7%, respectively.
This deceleration of growth is not in itself worrisome – no retail category can sustain rapid growth indefinitely. But the visit trends do signal that discount & dollar store leaders seeking an edge over the competition will need to adopt more strategic approaches and avoid allocating resources to overly risky ventures.
Overall visits to the Dollar Tree brand were already on the rise prior to COVID and skyrocketed over the pandemic – leading to a 60.1% increase in overall visits between 2017 and 2024. But, like with the wider category, traffic growth to Dollar Tree seems to be decelerating – the banner posted a 5.4% YoY increase in visits in 2024 compared to a 13.9% YoY increase in 2023.
But Family Dollar lagged behind, apparently immune to the COVID-driven dollar store visit surge. Traffic to the chain in 2024 was down 4.0% YoY and just 3.6% higher than it was in 2017. And although Dollar Tree’s decision to close nearly 1000 Family Dollar stores appears to be bearing fruit – in 2024, average visits per venue were up 1.7% YoY and 16.9% relative to the 2017 baseline – the improvement seems to have been insufficient to prevent the banner’s sale.
Family Dollar has faced plenty of difficulties in the last several years, so it’s difficult to attribute Dollar Tree’s offloading of the banner to a single factor. Still, one major element that likely hurt the brand’s performance was the intensified competition from other discount and dollar store leaders – including from sister banner Dollar Tree.
Family Dollar visitors have always been keen Walmart shoppers – since 2019, over 90% of Family Dollar yearly visitors also visited Walmart, and these cross-visit trends have remained relatively stable over the past six years. Other dollar stores were not always as popular with Family Dollar shoppers – in 2019, less than two-thirds of Family Dollar visitors also visited a Dollar Tree or a Dollar General. But as those chains grew, so did their appeal to Family Dollar shoppers – by 2024, over three-quarters of Family Dollar visitors also visited Dollar Tree or Dollar General – and this increased competition likely hampered Family Dollar’s growth.
Still, despite the increasingly competitive discount and dollar store space, analyzing Family Dollar’s trade area composition reveals that the chain fills a unique niche within the broader discount retail sector.
Family Dollar tends to attract the least affluent visitor base – the median household income (HHI) in the chain’s captured market trade area is $53.9K, compared to $67.6K, $61.8K, and $68.7K for Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, respectively. Family Dollar’s captured market also includes the highest share of urban areas, with 36.9% of its trade area defined as “Urban Periphery” or “Principal Urban Center” by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation database.
Family Dollar can draw on its distinctive position as an urban-based retailer catering to value-seeking consumers to set itself apart from the competition and lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
Although Family Dollar was sold at a substantial discount from its original purchase price, the chain still has a promising opportunity to re-establish itself as a powerful contender in the discount retail landscape. By prioritizing locations in urban areas that are less exposed to direct competition from the other major players and keeping its prices competitive with those of other dollar and discount retailers, Family Dollar can lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai
Consumers have been taking stock of their habits and behaviors over the past few years. With the explosion of semaglutide medications in the market and the high frequency of adoption by consumers, there’s a renewed focus on health and wellness across the U.S. population that extends to other consumption behaviors. One of the outcomes of this change in perspective is the increased scrutiny around the consumption of alcoholic beverages – especially among younger consumers.
At the same time, alcohol consumption increased handily during the pandemic, which has helped liquor stores and retail chains to stand out from the rest of the retail industry. As we hit the five year anniversary of the beginning of the pandemic, it’s time to dive deeper into the Bev Alc space to uncover new trends, changes with consumer engagement, and potential headwinds for the industry.
Liquor store chains benefited greatly from shifts in behavior during the pandemic, and for the most part, they’ve been able to sustain those levels of success over the past few years. However, 2024 signaled a deceleration of foot traffic growth across chains, particularly in the second half of the year.
Bev Alc had been a visitation leader in the essential side of the retail industry in the early days of the pandemic, and the category continued to benefit greatly from sustained levels of alcohol consumption even after pandemic restrictions eased. But as with all pandemic-era consumer habits, as we approach the five year anniversary, reversal of some trends are taking shape: While year-over-year visits continued to rise in 2024, last year’s 4.0% average increase in monthly visits was significantly less than the 8.6%, 9.1%, 7.1%, or 6.7% average increases in monthly visits in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
There are also various factors that could potentially impact the industry this year: Decreased consumption of alcohol that could have played a role in 2024’s softening of visits is likely to continue in 2025, and potential tariffs on popular spirits like Tequila and Mezcal may impact consumer preferences going forward.
From a retailer perspective, Spec’s posted the strongest visit performance while BevMo! had the most challenging 2024 of the larger liquor retail chains, although most chains experienced some softening in foot traffic throughout the year. Bev Alc retail is a notoriously regional and local category, meaning that changes in foot traffic by chain are often impacted by what’s going on in a specific region of the U.S. BevMO! services Arizona, California and Washington, so the chain’s modest performance may point to some decreases in demand across the western part of the country. Meanwhile, Spec’s operates primarily in Texas, and its consistent YoY visit growth throughout 2024 may suggest that the shift in alcohol consumption habits has been more muted in the Lone Star State.
With the broader context of what’s going on across the category analyzed, what’s really driving these changes in visitation to liquor stores? As referenced, there’s been a narrative that younger consumers’ changing alcohol consumption habits will greatly impact the Bev Alc space.
But layering Spatial.ai’s Personalive demographic and psychographic visitor segmentation onto liquor store’s captured market reveals a slightly more nuanced reality. The data shows that between 2019 and 2024, the share of wealthier families and of Educated Urbanites – a younger, well-educated, and more affluent cohort – in the captured market of liquor stores. During the same period, the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles – both segments of younger visitors have lower median household incomes than Educated Urbanites – actually increased.
What the data reveals is that we can’t build a singular narrative around the alcohol habits of all younger consumers; there’s also a layer of socioeconomics that has also impacted consumers' desire to frequent liquor stores and engage in alcohol consumption. This knowledge may also contribute to the changes we’ve seen in BevMo!’s business, as their highest shares of visitation come from wealthier families and Educated Urbanites.
Foot traffic estimates also reveal that consumers have shifted the time of day that they visit liquor store chains. In 2024, we observed a higher share of visits after 3 PM compared to 2019, with the largest penetration shift coming between the hours of 6 PM to 8 PM. Consumers are visiting liquor stores more frequently after working hours than before the pandemic, which underscores the shifting role of alcohol in people’s lives. Our data also indicated a higher distribution of visits during weekdays in 2024 compared to 2019, but a lower share of weekend visits.
Liquor store visit frequency contextualizes the changes that we’ve observed in consumption habits, highlighting that, despite the increased interest in moderating drinking habits, the pandemic did fundamentally shift how people engage with the category and alcohol retail has become more of a presence in consumers’ weekly routines.
As the cultural perception of alcohol shifts, changes are likely to occur across the industry. We’ve observed more liquor brands opening bars and drinking establishments to engage directly with consumers, while there’s also still a continued rise in local and regional brands popping up. Another area that has been growing steadily over the past few years is non-alcoholic beverages. The aisles of grocery stores and liquor stores are now filled with non-alcoholic alternatives of brand names, as well as mocktail entrants into wildly popular canned cocktails. Beyond that, there’s also been an increase in the number of non-alcoholic bottle shops, and the prevalence of non-alcoholic options will likely continue to grow and extend to other areas of the country outside of major cities. The Bev Alc industry is at a true crossroads with consumers, and consumer behavior will dictate how the industry must evolve to stay relevant.
The apparel space has faced considerable headwinds in recent years – from changing consumer preferences to cutbacks in discretionary spending. We dove into the data for various apparel categories to explore emerging industry trends and see what foot traffic patterns can tell us about the state of apparel in 2025.
Consumers’ emphasis on value and the excitement of a constantly changing inventory have significantly impacted the apparel space in recent years – and off-price chains and thrift stores are reaping the benefits.
Between 2019 and 2024, off-price and thrift store chains claimed growing shares of the overall apparel visit pie. Off-price’s visit share jumped from 28.1% in 2019 to 35.1% in 2024, while thrift’s increased from 9.4% to 12.2%. And while this growth came at the expense of traditional department stores and general apparel chains, the relative visit share of our luxury segment remained relatively stable – likely due to its more affluent and less value-seeking clientele.
The activewear and athleisure segment, for its part, has followed a more nuanced path in recent years. The activewear and athleisure segment saw relative visit share growth during the pandemic (between 2019 and 2021), as home workout routines and comfortable clothing became the norm. But in 2022, the category began to revert to its pre-pandemic visit share, likely due to the return of in-person gatherings and return-to-office trends.
Analysis of yearly visits to various apparel categories provides further insight into their foot traffic trajectories.
Since 2021, off-price visits have steadily increased compared to 2019, while thrift store visits have consistently outperformed 2019 levels since 2022. This indicates that the off-price and thrift segments are experiencing absolute visit growth alongside increased relative visit share.
However, over the last four years, visits to traditional department stores and general apparel retailers have consistently underperformed 2019 baselines – while luxury retailers have seen visits decline even as they have maintained relative visit share stability. Meanwhile, following three years of visits above 2019 levels, activewear and athleisure visits have begun to decline, dipping below the 2019 benchmark in 2024.
Diving into the audience demographics in the apparel space reveals several trends behind the growth of the off-price and thrift segments.
In 2024, compared to the other apparel categories, off-price had the largest share of large households (3+ people) within its captured market* (42.1%), while thrift stores had the smallest share (39.0%). This could mean that off-price chains resonate with families seeking budget-friendly staples, whereas thrift stores appeal to singles hunting for unique items.
*A category’s captured market is derived by the census block groups (CBGs) from which retailers draw their visitors weighted by the share of visits from each, and thus reflects the population that visits the category.
Diving deeper into consumer behavior in the apparel space reveals additional visitation trends in the off-price and thrift categories.
Of the analyzed apparel categories, off-price had the longest average visit duration in 2024, followed closely by thrift. Though off-price and thrift formats share a treasure-hunting environment, off-price's higher proportion of larger households may contribute to longer dwell times, as visitors shop for multiple family members at once. Still, thrift store visitors, likely to come from small households, seem to spend significant time treasure-hunting for their own wardrobes. Activewear and athleisure, meanwhile, saw the shortest average dwell time – likely driven by customers who go into the stores knowing exactly what they want.
And of the apparel categories analyzed, thrift had the largest share of weekday visits (Monday - Friday) in 2024, perhaps since its visitors are more likely to be singles and young couples free of family commitments after work or retirees with weekday availability. Still, off-price also had a relatively elevated share of weekday visitors compared to most apparel categories, suggesting that visitors juggling family-driven schedules view off-price shopping as an errand rather than a recreational activity.
Consumer preferences for value and unique finds are reshaping the apparel retail landscape, driving substantial growth in the off-price and thrift segments. While traditional retail models face challenges, understanding these shifts in consumer behaviors and demographics is key to finding success in this dynamic environment.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
CVS and Walgreens, the two largest drugstore chains in the country, have faced increased competition from superstores and online platforms in recent years. To adapt, both chains are optimizing their brick-and-mortar footprints – and Walgreens is going private following its recent acquisition by Sycamore Partners.
We took a look at the two chains’ visit performance to see what lies ahead for each.
CVS and Walgreens command a major portion of drugstore visits nationwide – and their foot traffic data sheds light on how each is weathering heightened competition. CVS, which consolidated its fleet between 2022 and 2024, saw both overall visits (+0.6%) and average visits per location (+2.9%) elevated YoY in Q4 2024, suggesting that these store closures have helped bolster the chain.
Walgreens, which also closed a significant number of stores over the past two years, saw overall foot traffic lag slightly throughout 2024. However, average visits per location to the chain were up in all but one quarter of the year, suggesting that Walgreen’s rightsizing moves are having a positive impact on the chain, directing more traffic to higher-performing locations.
These patterns held into 2025, with CVS enjoying elevated YoY visits in all weeks analyzed, while Walgreens visits remained, for the most part, slightly below 2024 levels. Walgreens recently announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners, and while the impact of this deal remains to be seen, it could create opportunities for innovation and strategic transformation.
CVS and Walgreens are major players in the pharmacy space, controlling the lion’s share of offline pharmacy visits (excluding general and grocery retailers with on-site pharmacies such as Walmart and Kroger.) And even as the two chains have reduced their footprints, their overall market presence has expanded – perhaps a reflection of the broader challenges facing smaller pharmacy operators.
Between Q1 2023 and Q4 2024, the share of visits to drugstore and pharmacy retailers attributed to CVS increased from 41.9% to 44.0%, while Walgreens’ share grew modestly from 49.2% to 50.4%. Meanwhile, the share of visits to smaller chains declined from 8.9% to 5.5%. This indicates that CVS’s growing visit share has not come at the expense of Walgreens – underscoring both chains’ resilience and growth potential in the face of sector-wide headwinds.
CVS closed hundreds of stores between 2022 and 2024 as it sought to refine its retail strategy – and now, the drugstore seems to be ready for its next move. The chain announced the rollout of about a dozen small-format stores, set to open throughout 2025. These stores will stock more of the essentials – cold medicine, first-aid care – and offer pharmacy services, while eschewing some of the traditional drugstore offerings like greeting cards and groceries.
And exploring CBSA-level visitation patterns at CVS suggests that this move may indeed be giving consumers what they want – especially in certain areas of the country. In 2024, short visits to CVS (i.e. those lasting less than ten minutes) increased YoY in many CBSAs nationwide, but some regions, like the Northeast, experienced stronger short visit growth than others. As CVS plans out its small-format expansion, focusing on regions with strong interest in short visits – where consumers may be particularly interested in an efficient shopping experience at a scaled-down location – could help it capture even more market share while improving customer convenience.
CVS and Walgreens have faced their fair share of challenges in recent years, but both are adapting to stay competitive. New leadership and store formats may help them better serve customers and navigate the shifting retail pharmacy market.
Will the segment continue to adapt to a changing retail environment? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Recently, Target announced plans to add around 2,000 items to its baby and toddler assortment, with the goal of "supporting families throughout the parenting journey with products that bring joy and convenience to their everyday lives.”
The data suggests that Target shoppers are likely to react positively to this expanded baby assortment: Layering Placer.ai's trade area data with Spatial.ai's psychographic segmentation shows that Target's trade area is over-indexed for a range of family-oriented consumer segments, and affluent families in particular account for a significant share of Target's captured market. An expanded baby assortment is therefore likely to appeal to much of Target’s visitor base.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
.avif)
1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
