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We dove into the visit data to see how Starbucks, Dunkin,’ and Dutch Bros are faring in Q1 2025.
Affordable luxuries like coffee tend to do well in times of rising prices and heightened budget-consciousness. So it should come as no surprise that visits to coffee chains have been on the rise recently, with overall traffic to the category up 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025. Much of the increase can be attributed to the aggressive expansions of small and medium coffee chains such as Dutch Bros (13.4% YoY increase in visits in Q1 2025), Scooter’s Coffee (+15.3% YoY) and 7 Brew Coffee (+87.3%).
Meanwhile, visits to coffee leaders Starbucks and Dunkin’ remained relatively stable – falling by just 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, in line with the wider QSR Q1 2025 YoY visit gap of 1.6%. Contrasting the growth of smaller coffee chains with Starbucks and Dunkin’s minor traffic dips may suggest that consumers prefer to spend their limited discretionary funds on unique or decadent treats instead of on classic drinks and pastries.
But despite the rapid growth of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the coffee category, receiving over half of combined visits to Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew Coffee. At the same time, though, Starbucks’ stronghold on the category may be loosening slightly – the Seattle-based coffee giant’s relative visit share fell from 55.8% in Q1 2024 to 51.2% in Q1 2025 as smaller chains continued growing and expanding.
The cross-visitation data also highlights Starbucks’ dominance. In Q1 2025, the majority of visitors to most other coffee chains (51.3% of Dunkin’ visitors, 65.7% of Dutch Bros, and 58.4% of 7 Brew visitors) also visited a Starbucks in the same period. Meanwhile, only 27.4% of Starbucks consumers went to Dunkin’ and 16.4% went to Dutch Bros during the analyzed period, with even smaller shares going to Scooter’s and 7 Brew. So while the smaller chains are clearly making inroads into the coffee market, Starbucks still commands a strong central position, attracting a majority of coffee-goers and enjoying significant loyalty.
Despite the ongoing expansion of Dutch Bros and the rise of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the U.S. coffee category.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Fueled by customer demand for quality, convenience, and value, CAVA and sweetgreen are cementing their place as leaders in the fast-casual space. The two chains have seen impressive growth over the past few years, adding new locations to keep up with growing demand.
We took a look at their performance over the years to see what might be driving their continued rise.
While the fast-casual dining sector as a whole experienced a slight slowdown in Q1 2025, likely driven by continued budgetary concerns among diners, CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving. The two chains are squarely in expansion mode – and their impressively elevated foot traffic numbers strongly suggest that customers are highly receptive to both chains’ offerings.
In Q1 2025, visits to CAVA were 19.8% higher than in Q1 2024, while Sweetgreen saw its visits increase by 11.1%. In contrast, the wider fast-casual space experienced a visit slowdown of 0.1% during the same period, serving as a reminder of the challenges facing the segment.
Diving into audience segmentation data for both chains provides greater insight into the expansion strategies underlying their strong performance in recent years.
CAVA, which grew from a single location in Maryland to 367 restaurants at the end of 2024, has employed a suburban-focused growth strategy that has brought the chain to a wider audience than ever. The median household income of CAVA’s trade areas has been steadily dropping over the years. And a closer look at shifts in the psychographic segments that make up its visitor base suggests that the chain is reaching new suburban audiences.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, CAVA steadily broadened its reach among the working and middle-class “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomers” consumer segments. During the same period, it also gained more traction with the affluent “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment – while holding on to its substantial share of “Wealthy Suburban Families.” This suggests that, even as CAVA expands its reach among a wider range of suburban visitors, it has maintained its core audience. While a substantial portion of wealthy customers remains, the chain has effectively opened itself up to a larger and more diverse pool of visitors.
Similarly, sweetgreen has also been increasing its presence in suburban markets. The chain, which leans heavily into automation to improve visitor experience, has made suburban expansion a cornerstone of its strategy – and examining the geographic data clearly demonstrates this shift.
In Q1 2022, 31.3% of sweetgreen’s trade areas were made up of consumer segment groups belonging to the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. But by Q1 2025, this share rose sharply, to 42.2%. Over the same period, the share of “Principal Urban Centers” in sweetgreen’s trade areas dropped from 50.0% to 26.8%.
CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving, seemingly driven by their pushes into suburban markets.
Will the two chains continue to experience visit growth as Q2 gets underway?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Despite its recent release, Sinners has already generated significant buzz with overwhelmingly positive early reviews and a box office performance likely to break records as the best performing R-rated April release ever. The movie has also helped movie theaters maintain their strong momentum created by the success of A Minecraft Movie.
When Captain America: Brave New World was released on February 14th 2025, the movie drove a 37.0% increase in movie theater visits relative to the YTD (January 6th to April 20th 2025) weekly average. But visits quickly fell following the release week, and movie theater traffic was down 31.1% compared to the YTD average two weeks later.
Meanwhile, A Minecraft Movie led to a 88.6% spike in visits relative to the YTD average on the week of its release, likely thanks to the significant advertising and promotional activities in anticipation of the opening. But traffic was already beginning to fall when Sinners opened on April 18th – and the supernatural thriller helped slow the visit drop: Visits were 13.1% lower over the week of April 7th – April 13th compared to the week of March 31st to April 6th, but only dropped 7.2% week-over-week during the week of the Sinners release, when movie theater traffic stayed 52.1% above YTD weekly visit levels.
Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) brands operate in a fast-paced industry of shifting consumer preferences, and palate-pleasing promotions are one of the ways QSRs drive traffic in the face of evolving demand for value and innovation. Using the latest location intelligence, we analyzed RBI, Yum! Brands, and other top QSRs, to explore their Q1 2025 performance and several promotions that had a significant foot traffic impact.
QSRs faced challenges in the early months of 2025, leading to a Q1 YoY foot traffic decline of 1.6% for the category as a whole. Analyzing the companies' domestic portfolios reveals that traffic to Yum! Restaurants increased 2.9% YoY, bolstered by Taco Bell’s strong performance, while RBI’s traffic fell 3.4% YoY. Wingstop experienced the greatest foot traffic growth of the QSRs analyzed (+4.3%) while Wendy’s saw the sharpest traffic declines (-4.6%).
Zooming in on weekly visits (since March 2025) highlights the foot traffic impact of several QSR promotions – which often cause fanfare during their initial launch.
KFC’s new bucket meal seems to have provided a YoY visit lift for the Yum! chain during the week of March 17th, while visits to Popeyes, an RBI chain, have remained elevated since the week of March 31st, likely due to the launch of the restaurant’s April Fools no-joke pickle menu. But it was Wingstop that stole the visit-spike show with a 22.9% YoY boost during the week of March 24th, 2025 – as eager customers flocked to the chain to redeem T-Mobile’s one-day-only $0.01 chicken tender reward.
And zooming in on daily visit fluctuations to Wingstop during Q1 2025 shows that the T-Mobile tender deal didn’t provide the only one-day visit boost. On Super Bowl Sunday (February 9th, 2025), Wingstop’s traffic was 56.8% above the daily average for Q1 2025, as wings were once again a party favorite.
Taco Bell’s Q1 2025 YoY foot traffic growth stood out among the analyzed QSRs, and diving into visitor frequency data shows that the chain has been attracting an increasing number of repeat visitors.
Between October 2024 and March 2025, the number of frequent visitors to Taco Bell – those who visited at least twice during the month – rose consistently YoY, even as the number of casual visitors decreased or rose only slightly. But in January 2025, Taco Bell saw a significant 11.7% YoY surge in frequent visitors – many of whom may have been attracted to the chain’s revamp of the Luxe Cravings Box to kick off the year.
Despite overall challenges in the QSR segment, strategic promotions contributed to significant foot traffic gains for several brands. Wingstop and Taco Bell were two of the biggest visit winners in Q1, highlighting the impact of both one-day deals and extended offers.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
Health and wellness remain significant drivers for grocery shoppers, and today we’re looking at two health-centric grocers – Sprouts Farmers Market and Natural Grocers. The two chains, which recently topped the “Best Natural Food Stores” list, are thriving, and both are planning further expansions in 2025.
We dug into the visit and demographic data to get a sense for how the chains are performing and what might be driving their success.
Sprouts Farmers Market has been a grocery store to watch in recent years. The Arizona-based chain added some 33 new locations over the past year, leading to a major surge in overall visits to the chain. In Q1 2025, visits to the grocer were 11.9% higher than they were in Q1 2024, with the average number of visits to each Sprouts location also increasing 4.2% YoY. In contrast, visits to the wider grocery space rose just 0.8% YoY.
Colorado-based Natural Grocers has also been thriving, with Q1 2025 visits up 5.9% YoY. And though Natural Grocers’ expansion has been slower than Sprouts', it too is gradually growing its store count – and its consistent over-performance shows that its offerings are meeting robust demand.
Diving into audience segmentation data offers insight into some of the factors contributing to the two chains’ success.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers attract relatively affluent visitor bases: In Q1 2025, visitors to Sprouts came from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $96.8K, considerably above the category average of $81.8K. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew visitors with a median HHI of $84.0K – lower than that of Sprouts, but still higher than the wider segment.
And each of the chains drew higher-than-average shares of both young professionals and a variety of affluent family segments – though Sprouts was more popular among wealthy families, while Natural Grocers attracted more upper-middle-class suburban families.
In a grocery market defined by trading down and intensified competition from low-cost outlets such as dollar stores and superstores, specialty chains like Sprouts and Natural Grocers may benefit from their ability to attract health-focused, higher-income shoppers and busy professionals.
Beyond demographics, each chain occupies a distinct geographic niche. In Q1 2025, 49.3% of visitors to Sprouts came from the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew just 39.9% from these areas, just slightly above the sector-wide average.
Meanwhile, Natural Grocers drew a much larger share of shoppers from “Metro Cities” – defined as smaller metropolitan or satellite city areas – than either Sprouts or the wider grocery space.
This variance suggests that the two health-centric grocers play complementary roles within the food shopping space, allowing both to maximize relevance among their respective customer bases.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers are experiencing visit growth and success – in part by catering to busy professionals and different groups of affluent consumers. As the two chains continue to expand, will they be able to sustain their appeal to distinct customer segments?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven grocery and retail insights.
Following a second bankruptcy filing, JOANN recently announced a complete shutdown of its fleet. Using location analytics, we uncovered the foot traffic trends behind JOANN’s unraveling and pinpointed retailers that stand to gain from its exit from the arts and crafts space.
JOANN found success during the pandemic, as many consumers stuck at home took on new crafting hobbies. During the second half of 2020, visits to JOANN were consistently above the January 2019 baseline.
But in recent years, the retailer has struggled to sustain its momentum. Since February 2021, visits have remained below pre-pandemic levels – with even the chain’s annual holiday season visit boosts remaining below those seen in Q4 2019. Overall in 2024, visits to JOANN were down 4.4% compared to 2019.
And since announcing that it would be conducting liquidation sales in late February 2025, visits to JOANN have soared as consumers take advantage of final deals on crafting supplies.
Several factors have contributed to JOANN’s decline, including competition from e-commerce and superstores. Analysis of cross-visitation trends for visitors to JOANN reveals that between 2019 and 2024, the share of the retailer’s visitors that also visited Walmart increased from 90.2% to 92.4%, while the share of visitors to Target rose from 80.8% to 83.2%. This indicates that JOANN has faced growing pressure from big-box chains encroaching on JOANN’s market share in the crafting space.
The largest players in the arts and crafts space – Hobby Lobby and Michaels – also appear to have grown their market share at the expense of JOANN, and stand to gain even more from the retailer’s departure.
Both Hobby Lobby and Michaels have emerged as increasingly popular destinations for JOANN shoppers over the past several years: In 2024 49.9% of JOANN visitors frequented a Michaels, while 49.1% visited a Hobby Lobby – up from less than 45% for both chains in 2019.
And analysis of the median household incomes (HHIs) of the three specialty retailers’ 2024 captured trade areas reveals that JOANN attracted more affluent visitors than Hobby Lobby but lower-HHI visitors than Michaels. This suggests that in the absence of JOANN, the chain’s wealthier shoppers may gravitate towards Michaels while its lower-income shoppers may more naturally turn to Hobby Lobby.
Location analytics illuminate the challenges JOANN faced in a competitive market. The increasing overlap in visitation with major retailers like Walmart and Target underscores the intense pressure from superstores. Simultaneously, the growing shared customer base with specialty competitors Michaels and Hobby Lobby suggests a migration of JOANN's audiences.
For more insights anchored in location analytics, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
1. Experiential and niche retailers can deliver anchor-level traffic. At Towne East Square Mall, the addition of a Scheels in 2023 significantly increased foot traffic and long-distance travelers, while Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque has become a key driver of both foot traffic and higher-spend demographics.
2. Size isn’t everything – especially for dining venues. At Glendale Galleria and Northridge Fashion Center, smaller restaurants attracted more foot traffic than some traditional anchors.
3. Refocusing on tenants’ actual traffic contributions enables a flexible anchor approach. Balancing weekend draws like Scheels with weekday favorites such as Costco or Chick-fil-A can help maintain steady visitor flow throughout the week. Similarly, onsite fitness clubs can shift traffic to earlier in the day – an opportunity to adjust store hours and capture additional morning shoppers.
4. Temporary pop-ups can form an integral part of a visit-focused anchor strategy. The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour generates mall visit spikes well above typical Saturday levels. Operators can integrate these events into their overall anchor strategies, offering preferential terms to high-performing pop-ups.
5. New tenants can boost traffic for existing stores in similar categories. After Aldi joined Green Acres Commons in February 2020, visits to an existing BJ’s Wholesale Club trended upwards. This synergy highlights how overlapping audiences can become a strength, creating a larger overall customer base.
Malls, it seems, are cool once again. After languishing in the wake of the pandemic, shopping centers across the country are thriving – reinventing themselves as prime “third places” where people can hang out, shop, and grab a bite to eat.
One key driver behind this resurgence is a shift in how malls view their anchor tenants. While traditional mainstays like Macy’s and JCPenney still play an important role, specialized offerings – from popular eateries to fitness centers and immersive retailtainment destinations – are increasingly taking center stage. These attractions maximize the experiential value that brick-and-mortar venues can deliver, driving visits and sales for the center as a whole.
Against this backdrop, this report leverages the latest location intelligence data to explore the types of tenants that can function as mall anchors in 2025. Should mall operators still focus on general merchandisers to draw crowds, or can dining chains and more niche retailers also do the job? How important is square footage in identifying the anchor-like tenants in a shopping center? And how can a visit-focused approach help mall operators select effective anchor or anchor-like tenants – whether to fill big-box spaces or to leverage the leasing perks traditionally reserved for major large-format chains?
One of the most important functions of a mall anchor is to ensure steady visitation – providing its smaller tenants with a constant flow of potential customers. And as the role of the mall continues to evolve, analyzing the actual foot traffic impacts of different types of businesses can help identify the kinds of non-traditional anchors best suited to fulfill that purpose.
Experiential venues, for example, are particularly well-poised to serve as powerful anchors in today’s retail environment – as illustrated by the visit surge experienced by Towne East Square Mall in Wichita, KS following the addition of a Scheels in July 2023.
By blending traditional retail with immersive experiences, Scheels has emerged as a true experiential destination. And this pull has also helped the mall draw more long-distance visitors willing to travel to enjoy Scheels’ offerings. In 2024, 41.9% of the mall’s customers traveled more than 50 miles to visit, compared to 35.8% back in 2018 when Sears occupied the same lot.
Traditionally, anchors aimed to please the widest possible audiences – with department stores, big-box chains, and grocery stores leading the way. But visitation data shows that niche concepts can also deliver anchor-level traffic if they’re compelling enough to attract dedicated fans.
The experience of the Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque, NM is a case in point. After being written off as all but obsolete, Barnes & Noble has staged an impressive comeback in recent years, finding success through a more curated, localized approach to book selling. And despite not being a formal anchor, the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble accounted for 7.9% of visits to the mall in 2024 – outperforming both Macy’s and JCPenney.
Year-over-year data also shows foot traffic surging at the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble, lifting overall visitation to the mall. And demographic data reveals that the bookstore draws a more affluent audience than either the center as a whole or the two department stores – attracting a crowd with more spending power.
This example also illustrates how smaller tenants can sometimes draw larger crowds. Even though Barnes & Noble occupies a smaller onsite space than either Macy’s or JCPenney, it is proving a powerful visit driver out of proportion to its physical size.
Dining chains are also adept at punching above their square footage – often attracting crowds disproportionate to their size.
Despite its relatively small footprint, for example, the In-N-Out Burger at Glendale Galleria drew an impressive 8.6% of visits to the mall complex in 2024, outpacing some of the mall’s official anchors like DICK’s Sporting Goods, Macy’s, and JCPenney. Still, the onsite Target drew even larger crowds at 14.4% of visits.
A similar pattern emerged at Northridge Fashion Center, where Porto’s Bakery and Cafe captured a notable 15.6% of visits to the complex in 2024 – more than some of the center’s traditional department stores.
These examples underscore the potential for dining chains, which typically require less space, to serve as micro-anchors by consistently attracting outsized crowds – a key consideration for mall operators looking to sustain visitor traffic.
Refocusing on tenants’ actual foot traffic contributions also opens the door to a more flexible and dynamic approach to anchor selection and management – one that considers each venue’s unique visitation patterns.
Seasonal factors, for example, can make certain anchors more powerful at specific times of the year, while different venues shine on particular days of the week.
At Jordan Creek Town Center in West Des Moines, Iowa, for instance, Scheels and Costco each delivered just under 20.0% of the complex’s overall visits in 2024. But the two retailers’ daily patterns differed significantly: Scheels saw bigger crowds on weekends, while Costco was the primary weekday destination.
Understanding differences like these can help operators optimize their tenant mix to maintain a balanced flow of shoppers throughout the week.
Another example of the impact of differing weekday traffic patterns is offered by the impact of mall-based Chick-fil-A locations on the distribution of mall visits throughout the week.
Despite its relatively small size, Chick-fil-A draws substantial traffic to malls. And after adding Chick-fil-A locations, both Northridge and Miller Hill Malls saw meaningful drops in the share of visits to the centers taking place on Sundays – even as the wider indoor mall segment saw slight upticks.
Recognizing this trend could prompt mall operators to compensate by adding more weekend-friendly traffic drivers – or to lean into this distinction by taking additional steps to bolster the mall’s role as a go-to weekday destination.
The power of different mall traffic magnets also varies throughout the day. Increasingly, shopping centers are turning to fitness centers as experiential anchors. And since many people work out early in the morning, these gyms are having a significant impact on the distribution of mall visits across dayparts.
The addition of gyms to Northshore Mall in Peabody, MA and Jackson Crossing in Jackson, MI, for instance, led to a significant rise in visits between 7:00 AM and noon. And though the rest of the stores in these malls typically open at 10:00 or 11:00 AM, this shift presents the centers with a significant opportunity.
By adjusting opening hours to accommodate these early-morning patrons, malls can capitalize on this added traffic, driving up visits and sales for relevant tenants – especially health-focused retailers such as juice bars and sporting goods stores.
Adopting a broader, visit-focused view of anchoring also allows mall operators to apply some of the strategies typically reserved for anchors to non-conventional traffic-generating businesses, to ensure a consistent flow of traffic year-round.
Pop-up stores and events, for example, generally don’t follow the same seasonal trends as other retailers – instead, they generate short-term visit boosts during their runs, whenever in the year that may be. And a visit-focused anchor strategy can leverage some of the perks traditionally reserved for anchor tenants – such as preferential leasing terms – to complement traditional full-time anchors during slower retail periods.
The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour is a prime example of a traffic-driving pop-up. By bringing exclusive merchandise to malls across the U.S., the truck generates plenty of buzz, drawing crowds eager to snatch up limited-edition items and immerse themselves in all things Barbie. As a result, malls hosting the tour often see significant visit spikes, with foot traffic surging well above typical Saturday levels. Well-timed pop-ups like these can help balance out traffic throughout the year, offsetting traditional slow periods.
A visit-focused approach to anchor management can also help mall operators assess the potential impact of new tenants on existing stores operating in similar categories. For example, mall owners often worry that new tenants operating in similar categories might cannibalize existing businesses. But a visit-focused anchor approach reveals that a well-chosen addition can sometimes benefit current tenants – especially if they cater to similar audiences.
In February 2020, for instance, value supermarket Aldi opened at Green Acres Commons in Valley Stream, NY – a center that already hosted budget-friendly BJ’s Wholesale Club. While BJ’s visits were relatively flat in 2018 and 2019, they began to rise after Aldi’s opening (and following a pandemic-induced dip). Cross-shopping data also shows that Aldi customers were more likely to visit BJ’s than the average Green Acres patron last year.
This synergy may be due in part to the two retailers’ similar visitor bases: In 2024, the Aldi and BJ’s stores in Green Acres Common drew shoppers with comparable economic profiles. This suggests that overlapping audiences can become a strength if aligned brands attract new shoppers, who then explore multiple stores in the same center.
Looking ahead, effective mall anchors will be defined less by physical footprint and more by their capacity to maintain consistent, valuable foot traffic. While traditional department stores remain pivotal, smaller or niche brands can often rival – or surpass – large-format retailers. And by thinking out of the anchor box and choosing tenants that cultivate a balanced visitor flow and align with local preferences, operators can position their centers as true go-to destinations.
