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Tractor Supply’s growing footprint continues to stand out in a retail environment where many chains remain cautious about physical expansion. We took a closer look at Tractor Supply’s market positioning to better understand how the chain’s deliberate expansion strategy sets it up for success in 2026.
Tractor Supply continued to scale its physical footprint in 2025, leveraging the acquisition of former Big Lots sites and reinforcing store growth as a core lever of its “Life Out Here” strategy. The chain’s expansion likely contributed to its steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, positive average visits per location in most months suggests that new stores were capturing incremental demand rather than diluting traffic at existing locations – reinforcing management’s commentary around limited cannibalization.
Tractor Supply intends to open around 100 new stores in 2026 as part of its longer-term roadmap to 3200 stores (the retailer currently has 2,398 locations), setting high expectations for continued foot traffic growth in 2026.
As Tractor Supply expands, its strategy has been focused on rural and western high-growth markets where demand remains underserved. And with a relatively small store format, Tractor Supply has a distinct advantage over big-box chains that often face site-selection challenges in these markets.
Analysis of AI-based potential market data combined with the STI: Market Outlook dataset shows that the unmet demand (demand minus supply) for building materials and supplies within Tractor Supply’s potential market – i.e. the areas from which it drives traffic – far surpasses unmet demand in the wider Home Improvement category’s potential market. This comparison – in just one of the retail categories that Tractor Supply occupies along with its peers – suggests substantial white space for the chain, driven by a footprint that prioritizes underserved markets rather than the more established ones where many industry counterparts compete.
And as Tractor Supply expanded between 2024 and 2025, unmet demand for building materials and supplies in the chain's potential market increased, even as unmet demand across the broader Home Improvement category declined. Together, these trends point to a site selection strategy that places Tractor Supply in high-demand regions where few retailers are positioned to fully meet consumer needs.
What can we learn from Tractor Supply’s strategy and 2025 performance? Sometimes, it pays to be smaller, and unlock demand away from the competitive landscapes where bigger players operate. By pairing an accelerated store-opening strategy with purposeful site selection, Tractor Supply appears well-positioned for sustained traffic growth.
Will Tractor Supply continue to build momentum in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Recent traffic trends to major dining chains show the divergence within the full-service dining space going into 2026. While Brinker International's flagship brand Chili's Grill continued reaping the benefits of its popular food bundles and drinks specials, Maggiano's Little Italy – the company's more upscale concept – struggled to reach 2024 visitation levels in Q4 2025.
For both Dine Brands Global, Inc. and Texas Roadhouse, Inc., traffic changes were mostly due to storefleet reconfigurations. Dine Brands' three banners contracted in 2025, leading to overall visit declines at Applebee's and Fuzzy's (IHOP maintained stable traffic patterns) – but all three concepts outperformed in terms of average visits per venue as the company's rightsizing efforts appeared to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. showed the opposite pattern as its three banners expanded, leading to overall visit growth – but average visits per venue decreased, suggesting that traffic gains were mostly driven by unit expansion.
These patterns reflect a more selective consumer environment heading into 2026, where growth is increasingly shaped by brand positioning, value perception, and disciplined fleet strategies rather than broad-based demand recovery. A closer look at monthly visit trends across major banners further illustrates these dynamics.
After leading the full-service restaurant category in 2024, Chili’s once again emerged as a standout performer in 2025, delivering consistent monthly visit gains despite a softer consumer environment. The brand has successfully established and maintained a clear value proposition, helping keep Chili’s top of mind for consumers seeking an affordable sit-down dining option
At the same time, recent monthly traffic trends suggest that sustaining this momentum into 2026 may require continued innovation, whether through refreshed bundled offerings, targeted promotions, or menu updates that reinforce value without eroding margins. But even if traffic growth moderates in the year ahead, maintaining the elevated visitation levels achieved over the past two years would still leave Chili’s in a notably strong competitive position within the full-service dining landscape.
Applebee’s and IHOP saw YoY declines in overall visits, but same-store traffic generally held up better – indicating that fleet rationalization helped stabilize per-restaurant demand. These trends point to the importance of right-sizing footprints and prioritizing unit-level productivity in a constrained consumer environment.
Visits to Texas Roadhouse in 2025 were up 2.1% compared to 2024, in part thanks to the chain's ongoing expansion. Same-store performance also remained positive for much of the year, suggesting that the larger store fleet can be supported by existing demand.
And even as traffic trends moderated toward the end of the year, the chain’s overall 2025 visit growth suggests an underlying demand that is strong enough to support Texas Roadhouse’s expanding footprint despite the most recent slowdown.
Overall, traffic patterns at these three major FSR players point to a more selective and competitive full-service dining environment heading into 2026, where broad-based demand recovery remains elusive. Brands that clearly communicate value or actively optimize their store fleets appear better positioned to defend store-level demand, while expansion-led growth models face increasing pressure to deliver stronger unit-level productivity. As consumer discretion remains constrained, execution and positioning – not scale alone – will likely define traffic winners in the year ahead.
Fore more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Columbus, Ohio is among the Midwest’s fastest-growing metro areas. Like downtown business districts across the country, its urban core is seeing a return to the office. What do inbound commuter traffic patterns reveal about this shift – and how can local stakeholders, from retailers to commercial real estate investors, capitalize on the opportunities created by this growing influx?
Growing metro areas depend on vibrant downtown anchors for employment and economic activity. In Columbus, OH, the downtown area has long served as a key destination for commuters as the city’s population and labor force have grown. Favorable business incentives, and the presence of major employers such as Nationwide Insurance, Huntington Bancshares, and American Electric Power contribute to Downtown Columbus’s rising commuter population.
Analysis of the regions with the highest shares of commuters to Downtown Columbus shows that both nearby urban neighborhoods and surrounding suburbs contribute significantly to the city’s downtown workforce.
The map below reveals that over the past 12 months, the densely-populated 43201 zip code drove one of the highest shares of downtown commuters. This urban corridor includes the rejuvenated Weinland Park neighborhood and parts of the University District and trendy Short North. Many of these commuters are likely students or recent graduates entering the workforce – drawn downtown by internships, early-career roles, and professional opportunities.
At the same time, the suburbs also play a defining role in Downtown Columbus’s workforce composition. The 43123 zip code – centered around Grove City – and 43026 – anchored by Hilliard – also had relatively large shares of Downtown Columbus commuters. This reflects a broader trend of workers balancing suburban lifestyles with city-based employment opportunities.
While Downtown Columbus’s workforce reflects a mix of suburban and urban commuters, the composition within its commercial corridors is even more nuanced – shaped by distinct demographic and psychographic characteristics.
Among the analyzed corridors, the Arena District stood out for having the highest median household income (HHI) and the largest share of the “Young Professionals” segment among commuters in 2025, suggesting a workforce anchored in early- to mid-career white-collar roles. This profile aligns with the district’s mix of corporate offices, and sports and entertainment–adjacent employers that may attract younger, upwardly mobile workers.
The Discovery District followed closely in terms of median income, but its psychographic mix skewed differently. The area had one of the highest shares of the “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment, alongside the largest concentration of the “City Hopefuls” segment, among the downtown corridors analyzed. Anchored by institutions such as Columbus State Community College, major healthcare employers, research organizations, and cultural assets like the Columbus Metropolitan Library and the Columbus Museum of Art, the district appears to draw a diverse, but upper-income mix of commuters tied to public service, education, and nonprofit work.
The Uptown District stood apart with a median commuter HHI below that of the Columbus, OH DMA, and elevated shares of “City Hopefuls” and “Young Professionals” compared to the region. This profile likely reflects the district’s concentration of government offices and white-collar employers in law and finance, alongside the service-sector workforce that supports the area’s high daily activity – together pulling a wide spectrum of income levels into the corridor each day.
With the right strategy, the diversity among commuters – who are also consumers of restaurants, retailers, and other service-oriented industries – creates opportunities for businesses to engage their target audiences where they spend meaningful daytime hours.
A downtown reflects not only a metro’s economic strength but also the fabric of its cultures and communities. In Columbus, the downtown serves as both a hub of commercial activity and a crossroads for commuters from diverse backgrounds. This diversity presents businesses with opportunities to carve out a target audience and civic leaders with a responsibility to ensure that Downtown Columbus continues to serve the needs of all who power it.
For more regional analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between July and October 2025, Chipotle’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth was driven almost entirely by expansion. Overall chain-wide visits rose each month, while same-store visits remained negative, generally hovering between -1% and -2%.
This pattern aligns closely with Chipotle’s recent earnings results. In Q2 2025, the company reported a 4% decline in comparable restaurant sales driven by a nearly 5% drop in transactions, even as average check size increased modestly. Q3 showed a slight improvement in same-store sales, but that gain was driven by higher checks rather than traffic, prompting Chipotle to trim its same-store sales outlook to a low single-digit decline. Throughout this period, digital sales remained a significant share of revenue, and new restaurant openings continued to support overall growth.
More recent visit data, however, suggests the dynamic may be shifting. In November, same-store visits turned slightly positive, contributing to a stronger increase in total chain-wide traffic, and December data shows that improvement continued to build. While expansion remains a key driver, this emerging pattern suggests existing locations may be starting to regain momentum.
Some of Chipotle’s late-year momentum appears to be driven by a growing share of short visits (defined as those lasting under ten minutes), which accounted for 42.2% of total chain traffic in 2025 – up from 41.2% in 2024. These quicker trips have consistently outperformed longer visits on a YoY basis, making their increasing share an important contributor to overall visit growth.
Importantly, the rise in short visits does not appear to be coming at the expense of longer ones. From July through October 2025, average per-location visits lasting under ten minutes remained essentially flat even as longer visits continued to lag; by December, however, both short and longer visits were growing on a per-location basis. This pattern indicates that the shift toward convenience is not cannibalizing traditional visit occasions, but may instead be lifting overall engagement with the brand.
Chipotle still benefits from expansion, but the more important story may be what’s happening inside existing restaurants: Same-store visits are stabilizing while quick trips gain share. And with the December launch of an all-new high-protein menu, Chipotle is signaling that it isn’t standing still – it’s continuing to refine its offerings to stay relevant as customer expectations and visit behaviors change.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
McDonald’s ended 2025 with clear visit momentum, reversing earlier softness and posting steady gains in the back half of the year. Same-store visits followed a similar trajectory, indicating that growth was driven by stronger underlying demand rather than unit expansion. This late-year rebound positions McDonald’s with solid visit momentum heading into 2026, suggesting improving consumer engagement as the year closed.
Some of the visit growth is likely due to the chain's popular Q4 LTOs – but diving deeper into the visit frequency data suggests that McDonald’s long-term investment in its loyalty program is also playing a part. The company's launch of MyMcDonald’s Rewards in 2021 seems to have succeeded in shifting traffic toward higher-frequency, incremental visits rather than relying on new customer acquisition.
Compared to pre-loyalty levels in H2 2019, a growing share of McDonald’s visits now comes from diners visiting an average of 4+ times per month, with the share of visits from consumers visiting the chain an average of 8+ times per month showing the most dramatic growth. Grouping YoY visit trends by visit frequency also shows that visits from high-frequency diners grew the most compared to H2 2024 and H2 2019. This dynamic points to a core benefit of loyalty-led growth: driving incremental visits from existing customers is typically far more efficient than acquiring new ones, especially in a mature, highly penetrated category like quick service restaurants.
McDonald’s executives have been explicit that loyalty is designed to increase frequency, not just enrollment. The continued growth of the program through 2025 – including deeper integration with value offers and digital ordering – suggests McDonald’s is still finding room to extract incremental visits from an already loyal base.
For other restaurant chains, McDonald’s experience points to the value of using loyalty as a lever for incremental growth, particularly once a customer has already been acquired. While many QSR brands continue to drive expansion by entering new markets or opening additional locations, McDonald’s data illustrates how meaningful gains can also come from increasing visit frequency among existing customers. Even without McDonald’s scale, the underlying strategy is broadly applicable: converting first-time or occasional visitors into higher-frequency customers can serve as a complementary – and often more efficient – path to growth alongside physical expansion.
Will these lessons shape the QSR space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
In 2024, Dollar Tree capitalized on the liquidation of the 99 Cents Only chain to execute a strategic "land grab" in the notoriously tight US retail market. By acquiring designation rights for 170 leases across priority markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, the retailer aimed to bypass zoning hurdles and accelerate growth.
AI-powered location analytics indicates the selection process was highly disciplined: Looking at over 85 California stores that were converted from 99 Cents Only to Dollar Tree reveals that Dollar Tree cherry-picked high-performing sites that were generating 6.0% more foot traffic than the 99 Cents Only chain average in 2023. This suggests the acquisition was a calculated move to secure proven, high-quality real estate.
However, 2025 performance data reveals that capitalizing on this opportunity comes with distinct operational costs. Total visits to the converted stores have dropped 38.8% compared to their 2023 baselines. While some of this decline is structural – Dollar Tree operates a lower-frequency "treasure hunt" model compared to the high-frequency grocery model of the previous tenant – a significant portion is self-inflicted through network overlap.
A staggering 36% of the new sites are located less than a mile from an existing Dollar Tree, which inevitably dilutes local traffic through cannibalization. This serves as a critical lesson for retailers considering bulk acquisitions: purchasing a portfolio "en masse" often prevents perfect network optimization, forcing the acquirer to manage the friction where new footprints compete with the old.
Still, despite this cannibalization and the drop in raw volume, the transition offers a potential "healthy correction" for the business. The previous tenant collapsed under the weight of "rising levels of shrink" and low-margin grocery sales. By shifting the model, Dollar Tree is effectively filtering out non-paying visitors and low-value transactions, trading chaotic volume for a more controlled, margin-focused operation. The discrepancy between the sharp drop in total visits (-38.8%) and the more moderate dip in visits per square foot (-25.0%) suggests Dollar Tree is already rightsizing these operations, leaving some "ghost space" inactive rather than over-investing in labor to manage the entire cavernous floor.
And this excess square footage is only a liability if it remains empty; turning it into an asset requires leveraging the fundamental change in who is now shopping these aisles. The shift in shopper demographics – where "Wealthy Suburban Families" have replaced the "Young Urban Singles" and "Melting Pot Families" of the previous tenant – is crucial for Dollar Tree's future. This new audience, which is less price-sensitive, provides the ideal environment for Dollar Tree to deploy its "Multi-Price" strategy.
While CFO Jeff Davis has cited "start-up costs" regarding these conversions, the long-term opportunity is clear: if Dollar Tree can utilize the extra square footage to showcase this higher-margin assortment, these locations could evolve from overlapping burdens into profitable flagships that capture a share of wallet the traditional small-box fleet never could.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
