.svg)
How did indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls fare in June 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Fresh on the heels of May’s strong showing, malls continued to impress in June 2024. Weekly year-over-year (YoY) visits to all three mall types (indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls) remained robust throughout the month, as shoppers took advantage of the warm weather to go shopping.
YoY foot traffic to malls was especially high during the week of June 17th – when a record-breaking heat wave likely drove shoppers to seek refuge in air-conditioned spaces – including both malls and individual stores. During that week, indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls saw YoY visit increases of 9.4%, 9.9%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Malls’ positive June performance appears to herald a strong summer shopping season for the sector – which tends to draw larger crowds in summer months.
Comparing monthly mall visits to a January 2019 baseline shows that all three mall types experience substantial summer foot traffic boosts. For indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, the summer foot traffic increases – though significant – pale in comparison to those of the holiday season. But for outlet malls, the July and August foot traffic spikes rival those seen in December.
Outlet malls’ special summertime opportunity may be driven by a variety of factors. People may have more time to travel to outlet malls during summer vacations and may be more inclined to embrace the experience of a leisurely shopping day trip when the weather is warm. College students and parents eager to find back-to-school deals may also flock to outlet malls in July and August as they gear up for the academic year.
And with such a strong June under their belts, outlet malls – as well as indoor malls and open-air shopping centers – appear poised for a successful summer indeed.
The warm summer months not only bring more shoppers to malls, but also lead to longer visits. Analyzing monthly shifts in malls’ average visit durations since May 2023 shows that like foot traffic, mall dwell time also has a seasonal element – with people staying longer during holiday shopping seasons, as well as in the summer. Visit durations peak in July, and then again in November and December – with smaller jumps seen in March, likely a result of Easter and Spring Break.
And looking more closely at dwell time trends over the past six months shows that since the beginning of 2024, mall visit length increased slightly each month for all three mall types. June 2024 average visit durations to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls were 1.9, 1.3, and 3.1 minutes longer, respectively, than in January 2024. While these differences are subtle, the consistency of the shift is striking – and considering that the averages are derived from millions of visits to hundreds of malls, it reflects a significant trend.
As the temperatures warm up, shoppers are happy to hit the mall. All three mall types saw a strong June, indicating a promising summer ahead.
Will July and August meet these high expectations for shopping malls across the country?
Visit our blog at placer.ai to find out.
Return-to-office (RTO) mandates are once again the talk of the town, with growing numbers of employers requiring workers to move back closer to the office and come into the office more frequently. Despite employee pushback, the trend is leaving its mark on everything from downtown retailers to local housing markets.
But how is the RTO push impacting office attendance? We dove into the data to find out.
In June 2024, visits to offices nationwide were just 29.4% below June 2019 levels – and the highest they’ve been since before the pandemic. June’s strong year-over-year (YoY) showing is particularly impressive given the fact that June 2024 had one fewer workday than June 2019 (Juneteenth was declared a federal holiday in 2021).
Digging down into regional data shows Miami continuing to lead the office recovery pack, with June 2024 visits down just 9.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2019. New York was once again close on Miami’s heels – driven in part by strict RTO policies on Wall Street. Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington, D.C. also outperformed the nationwide baseline, while Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, Houston, and San Francisco took up the rear.
A look at regional YoY visitation patterns offers additional insight into each city’s unique office recovery trajectory. Houston, which was hit hard by inclement weather in May 2024, suffered an additional setback in June – with tropical storm warnings and extreme heat waves likely inducing many locals to stay home.
Atlanta and Boston, on the other hand, experienced their busiest in-office month since the pandemic – with respective June 2024 YoY visit increases of 10.0% and 10.3%. Atlanta, which has been outperforming nationwide averages for some months now, has seen an accelerated recovery fueled by accumulating RTO mandates. And in Boston, too, growing numbers of companies are calling on employees to put in more face time.
San Francisco, meanwhile, surrendered its YoY visit growth lead, even as the San Francisco Federal Reserve president urged tech companies to tighten their in-office policies.
The new hybrid normal may be firmly entrenched – but foot traffic data shows that the RTO story is still very much ongoing. How will office visits continue to shape up as the year wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
Movie theaters, among the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, have faced challenges in foot traffic recovering to pre-COVID levels. However, the release of major blockbusters including Barbie, Oppenheimer, Spiderman: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, and others, led to dramatic surges in movie theater visits, proving that the silver screen can still draw crowds.
While some of these films shattered box-office records upon release, the recently premiered "Inside Out 2" – an animated coming-of-age film – is poised to exceed even those impressive metrics, setting a new benchmark for success.
Expectations for the new Disney-Pixar powerhouse sequel “Inside Out 2” were high long before its theatrical premiere on June 14th, 2024. Fans and critics alike were eagerly anticipating the return of Riley and her emotions. But even among these high expectations, the film’s effect was astonishing, becoming the fastest-ever animated feature to surpass the billion-dollar mark.
And the film's huge success is only further emphasized by foot traffic data of major movie theater chains across the country. On the week of June 10th, when the film was released, AMC theaters, Cinemark, and Regal Cinemas saw remarkable respective visit peaks of 76.7%, 70.5%, and 83.2% compared to the previous week.
But the momentum didn’t stop there. Theater visits continued to surge into the second week following the film’s release, driven by the ongoing hype surrounding "Inside Out 2." Week over week, AMC theaters, Cinemark and Regal Cinemas experienced respective visits increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 14.3%.
The "Inside Out 2" visit effect was not only impressive on its own but also remarkable when compared to other major blockbuster films released in the past two years. Visits to the three biggest theater chains nationwide saw extraordinary upticks ranging from 67.5% to 72.6% compared to the weekly average of the second quarter of 2024. The closest comparable accomplishment in the past two years was the release of the “Super Mario Bros. Movie” in April 2023, which generated theater visits between 32.2% and 35.8% higher than the weekly average visits for that quarter.
The visit surge brought on by "Inside Out 2" highlights the movie’s massive draw and sets a new industry benchmark, solidifying its place as a monumental success in recent cinema history.
Theater chains know in advance that a highly anticipated Disney-Pixar film will fill their theaters with the joyful squeals of little ones. However, family films don’t just attract families; they also draw visitors from a wider range of socioeconomic backgrounds, all eager to enjoy a much-talked-about film and an affordable outing for the entire family. This was especially true for "Inside Out 2," which premiered just as a record-breaking heat wave hit the country, driving millions to seek refuge in an air-conditioned movie theater.
Indeed, analyzing the captured markets of the most-visited AMC, Cinemark, and Regal Cinemas during the week of the film’s release showed that not only did they attract a higher percentage of visitors from households with children, as anticipated, but they also drew more visitors with lower household incomes. This influx significantly lowered the median household income of the theater’s captured markets, highlighting the film’s broad appeal and its ability to provide accessible entertainment to all.
The impressive visit surge from the release of "Inside Out 2" highlights the still-strong demand for out-of-home entertainment and the staying power of the movie theater industry. And with a lineup of highly anticipated releases this summer, theaters are poised to continue satisfying the demand for in-cinema entertainment well into 2024 and beyond.
Will major blockbuster films continue to be the main factor driving the movie theater industry forward? Can the industry maintain strong visit volumes between top releases?
Visit our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
How did Petco and PetSmart, the two big-box leaders of the pet sector, fare in early 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
In recent months, Inflation and sagging consumer confidence have taken their toll on the pet supplies industry, which relies at least partially on discretionary spending, and in its Q1 2024 earnings report, Petco reported a minor YoY drop in revenue. But while Petco saw YoY visit dips in January and April – softened by minor upticks in February and March – visits increased 3.7% YoY in May.
PetSmart, for its part, experienced even more consistent YoY visit lags in early 2024. But like its competitor, the pet supplies giant also saw signs of a potential softening or even reversal of this trend in May. And for both chains, May’s positive showing may be a sign of even better things to come heading into summer.
But while Petco led PetSmart in YoY visit performance in early 2024, PetSmart hasn’t relinquished its position as the most-visited pet store chain in the country. Between January and May 2024, 62.1% of total foot traffic to the two chains went to PetSmart, compared to just 37.9% for Petco, and PetSmart was the top-visited chain in most regions nationwide.
Still, drilling down into statewide-level data reveals a more complex picture. In New England, Petco was the dominant player in early 2024. And in the Pacific region, the two chains were neck in neck.
PetSmart’s visit share lead is partially driven by its larger fleet. But foot traffic data shows that other factors are likely at play as well.
Indeed, though both chains boast loyal visitor bases, PetSmart customers generate more repeat visits than Petco ones – a factor likely further contributing to PetSmart’s increased visit share.
During the first part of 2024, some 21.1% to 21.8% of PetSmart visitors visited the chain at least twice each month – compared to 18.1% to 19.0% for Petco. PetSmart’s enhanced loyalty may be driven in part by the greater selection in-house pet services offered by the chain.
Pet store visits tend to be seasonal – December is generally the industry’s busiest month of the year, followed by March and July. Do Petco’s and PetSmart’s May upticks herald strong July peaks this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
Everybody loves ice cream – so with summer underway, we dove into the data to explore the performance of ice cream shops nationwide.
The past couple of years have been all about affordable indulgences – and ice cream chains have been riding the wave. Comparing monthly category-wide visits to a January 2020 baseline shows the industry reaching new peaks each summer, with May 2024 seeing the most monthly foot traffic in 4.5 years.
In June 2024, weekly YoY visits trended upwards even more sharply – as a record-breaking heat wave during the week of June 17th sent Americans nationwide seeking ways to cool down. The scorching temperatures left no doubt that summer had officially arrived, and as consumers fired up their ACs and got their summer wardrobes ready, they also flocked to ice-cream chains to chill out with a sweet treat.
With such strong performance under their belts, ice cream chains appear poised to continue to flourish as the peak summer season wears on.
It’s no secret that ice cream is one of the most seasonal food sectors – and the success of many ice cream chains hinges on their ability to make the most of the summer months, when foot traffic is generally at its highest. But a look at seasonal visitation trends for four major chains – Dairy Queen (focusing on “treat only” locations that do not include a full-service restaurant), Cold Stone Creamery, Carvel, and Ben & Jerry’s – shows that the extent of this seasonality varies among chains – and among different regions of the country.
Visits to Dairy Queen locations in New York, for example, are highly driven by seasonality – with May foot traffic more than 300% higher than that seen in January. Dairy Queen locations in Florida, on the other hand, experience much more subdued summer visit peaks. Similar trends can be observed for the other analyzed chains.
Ice cream’s seasonality impacts consumer behavior in other ways as well. Though there are once again important differences between ice cream chains, all analyzed brands saw visitor dwell time jump during the summer and decline in winter.
In May 2023 and 2024, for example, a respective 49.1% and 48.6% of visits to Dairy Queen lasted more than ten minutes. But between November 2023 and February 2024, less than 40.0% of visits lasted more than ten minutes – as customers likely ordered their ice-cream to go. Visitors to Ben and Jerry’s, on the other hand, are more likely to linger in-store, with over 70.0% of visits lasting more than ten minutes year-round. But like Dairy Queen, the chain also sees a significant jump in longer visits during the summer.
The ice cream industry continues to show strong performance across the board, with indications of an even stronger summer ahead. Are there more visit peaks in store for the category this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
In recent weeks, we’ve analyzed auto dealers and convenience stores, so we thought we’d extend the conversation by taking a look at the car wash industry. The car wash industry in the United States has been one of the fastest growing retail categories coming out of the pandemic due to the increasing number of vehicles on the road, an increase in average vehicle age, a shift to a membership-based model for many operators, as well as advancements in car wash technology that have made services more efficient and automated. This shift is evidenced by the fact that around 80% of car washes are now done at professional locations, compared to 48% in 1994 according to the International Car Wash Association.
According to car wash trade groups, there are approximately 65,000 car wash locations across the nation. Mister Car Wash is the largest car wash chain in the U.S., operates more than 480 locations across 21 states. However, the category remains highly fragmented, with nearly three-fourths of industry operators having less than 2 locations. This has naturally set the stage for industry consolidation the past several years, with larger companies acquiring smaller operators to expand their footprints. We see the overall growth and consolidation of the category in a visitation trendline of a custom grouping of nearly 60 of the largest car wash chains in the U.S., where total visits have increased by roughly seven times since 2017.
We also see consolidation show up share of visit numbers from 2019-2023, which we show below. Mister Car Wash has remained the largest player in the category with respect to share of visits the past several years by growing both its unit counts (from 322 at the end of 2019 to 482 as of March) and visits per location (up more than 8% over the same time period). There has been movement among the chains ranked number 2 through 6 the past several years, but the group has generally included Quick Quack Car Wash, Take 5 Car Wash, Tommy’s Express Car Wash, and Zips Car Wash. However, the most notable observation from share of visit trends is the tremendous growth in visit share among smaller chains the past several years.
Car washes have been an attractive investment for private equity the past several years, helping to fuel some of the growth of smaller chains. Individual car wash locations generate an estimated $1.5M in annual sales according to industry trade groups–which is slightly ahead of the average unit sales of a quick-service restaurant chain of $1.4 million–while offering lower labor requirements and more predictable results due to the increasing popularity of membership models. In many respects, the growth of the car wash category mirrors the growth we’ve seen across the fitness category the past several years.
Despite the strong industry growth the past several years, Q1 2024 trends were impacted by a number of factors according to Mister Car Wash’s management team, including increased competition and a lower-income customer cohort that's been under more pressure (inclement weather in January across much of the country also likely played a role). Placer data confirms that Q1 2024 was in fact the weakest quarter from a category visit per location standpoint in several years. However, we’ve seen a rebound in Q2 2024 trends so far, with quarter-to-date visitation trends pacing just behind the year ago period with just a few days left in the quarter.
We mentioned that a membership-based approach has helped to drive visitation growth for the category and led to more predictable results, and we see that when we look at visitor loyalty data for Mister Car Wash. According to the company’s most recent annual report, it increased overall Unlimited Car Wash (UWC) monthly subscription penetration to 71% of total wash sales in 2023, up from 68% the year prior. When we look at visits from “casual” (1 visit per month) versus “loyal” (2+ visits per month) customers, we’ve seen a meaningful shift toward more loyal customers the past several years, particularly during peak visitation months in the summer.
Despite a slower start to 2024 due to aforementioned factors, the U.S. car wash industry appears well positioned for continued growth and consolidation due to the continued aging of the auto fleet, population migration trends, the continued shift toward membership-based revenue models, attractive unit economics, and new technological advances.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
.png)
1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
