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CAVA’s expansion in recent years has been largely focused on suburban markets. And analyzing the shift in its visitor base highlights that it is growing in ways that signal continued room for growth.
The median household income in CAVA’s trade area has dropped steadily over the years, from $122.7K in 2019 to $95.0K in 2025, reflecting its growing reach among middle-income, suburban households. At the same time, visits from the ultra-wealthy “Power Elite”, defined by Experian: Mosaic as “the wealthiest households in the U.S.”, have given way to growth among “Singles & Starters” – though a slight drop-off in 2025 may reflect pull-back from these households amidst economic uncertainty. Still, the data suggests that CAVA’s appeal is resonating with a much larger, more diverse group of consumers, positioning the chain for continued growth in the years ahead.
Looking deeper into the geographic segments that make up CAVA’s visitor base reveals another often-overlooked source of opportunity. As the company has expanded beyond its urban core, its share of visits from the “Urban Periphery” segment (defined by the Esri Analytics Bundle as residential communities just beyond major city centers) has climbed steadily. These neighborhoods present a significant opportunity for continued expansion in markets that bridge city and suburb – offering the chain further room for growth.
In expanding into suburban markets, CAVA has also evolved its operating model to emphasize speed and convenience. Visits have become noticeably faster as the brand expands its drive-thru lanes and digital ordering options, with average dwell time dropping from 42.3 minutes in Q3 2019 to 28 minutes in Q3 2025. This shift suggests that the chain’s approach is resonating with time-pressed consumers. At the same time, a still relatively leisurely dwell time (28 minutes in Q3 2025) indicates that many guests still choose to dine in-house – underscoring CAVA’s ability to serve both convenience-driven and sit-down customers.
Location analytics for CAVA reflects a brand that is maturing while still defining its core audience. The chain has democratized over the years, as seen by its widening customer base, while continuing to make operational changes that benefit its brand.
Will CAVA continue to thrive into Q4 2025 and beyond?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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When First Watch (FWRG), Portillo’s (PTLO), and sweetgreen (SG) went public in 2021, each represented a different slice of the fast-casual boom – from breakfast to indulgent classics to health-forward dining.
Now, four years on, as tighter consumer budgets and a more competitive dining environment test the wider dining scene, we explore how these three restaurants are performing in 2025.
First Watch’s concept is simple: breakfast, served between 7 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. And recent visitation trends suggest that this straightforward formula continues to resonate – foot traffic grew steadily on a YoY basis, with visits over the past 12 months up 11.9% year over year (YoY).
The company set a goal of adding 60 new restaurants in 2025 and has already opened about half that number while eyeing an eventual 2,200-unit footprint nationwide. Comp sales reflect this steady, disciplined growth, increasing 3.5% in Q2 2025, driven primarily by higher guest counts rather than menu pricing.
With continued visit gains and a measured expansion plan, First Watch appears well positioned to sustain its momentum. Its customer base tends to be more affluent and possibly less price-sensitive than many fast-casual chains – an advantage that may help insulate the brand from inflationary pressures. Combined with its focused concept and disciplined execution, First Watch remains poised for steady growth even in a more cautious consumer climate.
Fast-casual chain Portillo’s, known for its Midwestern take on comfort food, saw a strong run of visit growth through 2024, primarily driven by continued expansion. Now, the chain appears to be entering a period of normalization.
Chain-wide foot traffic, which had grown at a double-digit pace the prior year, began to slow in early 2025, with visits over the past 12 months just 1.6% higher YoY – partly due to the lapping of a strong 2024.
The company has acknowledged these headwinds, lowering expectations amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. To address them, Portillo’s plans to renew its focus on value, streamline operations, and pace new unit growth – strengthening its foundation for measured expansion and increased foot traffic in 2026.
Salad chain sweetgreen was one of the standout success stories of the post-pandemic era and continued that momentum into recent years. The company’s expansion strategy and focus on digital engagement helped drive consistent visit growth, cementing its position as a leader in the premium fast-casual segment.
Visits over the past 12 months were up 10.9% year-over-year – an impressive increase, but still lower than the 22.5% YoY growth of the previous 12-months period.
Part of this moderation reflects tougher comparisons following a particularly strong 2024. And though “bowl fatigue” likely also plays a role, sweetgreen remains optimistic. The brand continues to invest in its suburban formats while building out its “Infinite Kitchen” technology and continuing to open new locations. If successful, these initiatives could help Sweetgreen translate its brand strength and digital reach into a more stable, scalable traffic base as it moves into 2026.
The three chains have found their stride, though each is on a different path. First Watch is thriving, capitalizing on a focused concept and loyal, higher-income guests. Portillo’s is in a reset phase, refocusing on value and efficiency, while sweetgreen remains in growth mode, leveraging technology and suburban expansion to reignite same-store growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Cautious consumer spending and aggressive discounting across the dining industry have made it increasingly difficult for fast-food brands to sustain steady foot traffic in 2025. And against this challenging backdrop, Wendy’s saw same-store visits decline 6.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3 – with the steepest drop-off occurring in September. Looking ahead, the brand faces an even tougher YoY comparison in October 2025, when it will lap the highly successful Krabby Patty Kollab that fueled an exceptional traffic surge in October 2024.
On the company’s latest earnings call, executives acknowledged that an overload of overlapping deals had left customers confused. Interim CEO Ken Cook said seeing “eight different deals at point of purchase” made it unclear what guests were coming for. The company has since adopted a “less-is-more” approach, simplifying its promotional calendar to focus on a few high-impact offerings.
And despite the continued slowdown, this simplified approach is showing early promise. On July 14th, 2025, Wendy’s introduced a can’t-miss $1 breakfast biscuit deal that let guests purchase up to five biscuits per morning with no sign-up or purchase requirements. The limited-time offer ran through late August – and even as traffic softened during other dayparts, breakfast visits between 6:00 and 10:00 AM rose 0.9% YoY in Q3, with a sharp 11.6% surge in August. Though the promotion has since ended, its success provides a blueprint for the company as it heads into the last quarter of the year.
By simplifying its value message, Wendy’s aims to ease decision fatigue and re-energize consumers around clear, compelling offers. And the success of the chain’s summer breakfast promotion suggests that this focused strategy could help restore traffic momentum in the months ahead.
For more data-driven QSR insights, explore Placer.ai's free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Consumers continue to navigate high food costs and cautious spending, and some of the largest quick-service dining operators in the country are feeling the effects. We analyzed the visit data for leading QSR players Yum! Brands (YUM) and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) to assess their performance in the third quarter of 2025.
Yum! Brands emerged as a success story in Q1 and Q2 2025, with both visits and average visits per location showing moderate growth. That momentum has continued into Q3, with overall visits elevated by a modest 0.3% and average visits per location rising 1.3% – a strong showing in a period where the overall QSR sector has been showing signs of strain.
Taco Bell has long served as Yum! Brands’ primary U.S. growth engine, delivering 9.0% and 4.0% YoY same-store sales growth in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively. And in Q3 2025, the brand continued to thrive – though visits increased at a slightly slower pace than in Q2. Through initiatives like its $3 Y2K menu and the rollout of Live Más Cafés and specialty beverages tailored to Gen Z tastes, Taco Bell continues to balance value, nostalgia, and innovation – driving steady traffic and strengthening its connection with consumers.
The big surprises of Q3 were KFC and Pizza Hut, both of which showed meaningful improvements in foot traffic after several quarters of underperformance. At Pizza Hut, the $2-Buck Tuesday promotion that ran through most of July and August drew strong weekday crowds, helping to lift same-store visits 0.6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, at KFC, there are early signs that the brand’s “Kentucky Fried Comeback” initiative is beginning to pay off. Same-store visits increased 1.1% YoY in Q3, a substantial improvement from Q2, when same-store sales fell 5.0% and same-store traffic declined 4.6% YoY. The return of fan-favorite menu items like Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings also appears to have helped reignite consumer enthusiasm.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI), owner of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs, saw visits slow in Q3 2025. Overall traffic declined 3.3% YoY, slightly more than the wider QSR category, though average visits per location outperformed QSR with a smaller 2.3% drop.
RBI’s trajectory is largely driven by Burger King, which in Q3 2025 saw traffic decline by 3.6% YoY. Still, same-store visits to BK fell only 1.8% YoY, showing the brand’s success in sustaining traffic levels in a challenging QSR landscape. Popeyes experienced a modest same-store traffic decline, while Time Hortons saw a steeper drop.
RBI’s fast-casual Firehouse Subs, however, posted YoY visit growth, with overall visits up 1.6% and same-store visits holding steady at 0.6% – impressive performance even as the chain continues to expand its unit count. Part of this strength may stem from the chain’s relatively affluent customer base – according to data from STI:PopStats, Firehouse Subs’ captured market had a median household income (HHI) of $76.3K in Q3, compared to $67.0K for Burger King, $67.8K for Popeye’s, and $68.1K for Tim Hortons.
With consumer caution reshaping dining habits, even top QSR brands are feeling the pinch. Can Yum! sustain its momentum into Q4 or will broader dining headwinds slow its pace? And will RBI’s same-store visit trajectory continue to outpace the wider segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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For much of the past few years, Shake Shack and Wingstop seemed unstoppable, riding the fast-casual boom with strong traffic, loyal followings, and steady expansion. But as consumer spending patterns evolve, the latest visitation data suggests both brands are entering a new phase. We took a closer look at their Q3 visitation trends to see what foot traffic trends reveal about their performance.
Diving into Shake Shack’s foot traffic reveals the story of a brand growing through expansion. Overall visits to the chain grew by 15.1% in Q3 2025, an impressive increase in a period of cooling consumer sentiment. However, same-store visits slowed slightly, suggesting that this growth is a result of a rapidly expanding fleet rather than increased visitation at existing stores.
These traffic metrics align with recent company reports – in Q2 2025, overall revenue rose 12.6% in the wake of new store openings, while same-store sales inched up just 1.8% YoY, buoyed by higher menu prices. Shake Shack’s ability to rapidly expand its fleet while maintaining essentially stable same-store foot traffic – even while raising prices – suggests that the chain’s higher-income customer base continues to see Shake Shack as an affordable indulgence even in a cautious spending climate.
Wingstop is also in expansion mode, adding stores at a brisk pace this year. But since mid-summer, overall foot traffic growth has stagnated, with Q3 showing a 2.8% YoY decline and same-store visits falling even more sharply.
Part of this drop reflects an exceptionally tough comparison to Q3 2024, when visits surged 24.2% YoY overall and 14.0% on a same-store basis. (By contrast, Shake Shack saw overall visits increase 19.1%, while same-store visits held roughly flat at -0.8% during the same period).
Wingstop’s YoY visit slowdown should also be viewed in the context of its expanding digital business – online orders rose to 72.2% of total sales in Q2 2025. The chain’s growing digital business helped deliver a stronger-than-expected Q2, which saw domestic same-store sales down just 1.9%, despite lapping 28.7% growth in Q2 2024.
The company continues to expand aggressively, adding more than 120 net new restaurants in Q2 alone. Still, Wingstop’s leadership has acknowledged that near-term volatility may be expected, given exceptionally strong comparisons to 2024 and ongoing economic uncertainty affecting its more value-conscious customers.
Against this challenging backdrop, both brands have found extra strength in specials and limited-time offers (LTOs), which continue to drive measurable visit lifts to their restaurants.
Wingstop’s positioning closer to the value end of fast-casual makes it more vulnerable to inflation fatigue – and makes short-term specials all the more appealing to its customers. Indeed, visits jumped to their highest levels all year during the week of National Chicken Wing Day (July 29, 2025), when the chain lured budget-conscious diners with a free wing promotion.
Meanwhile, Shake Shack saw visit upticks during the weeks of May 26 and June 23 – the first likely driven in part by its free ShackBurger offer on orders over $10, and the second by the return of its viral Dubai Chocolate Shake.
Together, these bursts of activity reinforce a key point: Both chains are navigating a market where consumers are more selective, but still willing to show up for the right product, price, or promotion.
Both Shake Shack and Wingstop have entered a more measured phase of growth in 2025. Expansion remains central to each brand’s strategy, but digital engagement and timely promotions are playing an increasingly important role. As consumers become more selective, balancing scale with loyalty and value will likely define the next stage of growth for each chain.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The quick-service restaurant category has seen mixed results this past quarter, as softer consumer spending continues to pressure much of the sector. Yet the coffee subcategory continues to thrive, with much of its success coming from smaller brands.
We took a closer look at the visitation trends for the category, across major brands and smaller ones, to pinpoint where this growth is happening.
Even with consumers tightening their belts, coffee chains are holding their own. Visits to the coffee segment were up 1.4% YoY in 2025, compared to a 2.7% drop across the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment.
But digging deeper into average visits per location tells a more nuanced story: Visits to individual coffee venues declined 2.9% in Q3, only slightly outperforming the 3.3% drop across the wider QSR segment. In other words, coffee’s visit growth is being powered primarily by chain expansion rather than heavier traffic to existing units. Still, the category’s ability to sustain growth amid consumer pullbacks highlights coffee’s unique staying power – an everyday indulgence that consumers seem unwilling to give up, even as other affordable dining luxuries lose steam.
Starbucks and Dunkin’ are the two largest coffee chains in the United States by wide margins – Dunkin’ recently celebrated the opening of its 10,000th store, while Starbucks boasts roughly 17,230 locations nationwide. And despite ongoing challenges in the broader QSR segment, both coffee behemoths maintained relatively stable overall visit trends in Q3 2025. Starbucks saw a modest -1.7% decline in total visits compared to 2024, while Dunkin’ visits dipped by just -0.7%.
Dunkin’, however, outperformed Starbucks on a same-store basis, holding nearly flat with just a 1.7% decline – likely reflecting its stronger value positioning. Starbucks, by contrast, saw same-store visits fall 5.2% YoY, though the return of its Pumpkin Spice Latte once again provided a substantial lift. Both brands also experienced a slowdown in September, suggesting that consumers may be pulling back on small indulgences as they shift discretionary spending toward holiday gifts and larger upcoming expenses.
Even as Starbucks and Dunkin’ anchor the national market, smaller brands are driving much of the coffee category’s momentum – including the ever-popular Oregon-based Dutch Bros. The drive-thru brand has been on a major growth streak over the past several years, adding new locations at a brisk pace with a goal of reaching 2,029 units by 2029.
In Q3 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros rose 8.8% year-over-year, while same-store visits hovered just below 2024 levels – a modest slowdown from Q2, when total visits increased 13.8% and same-store visits rose 1.9%, consistent with strong quarterly comps. Still, maintaining nearly steady traffic amid such rapid expansion points to healthy, sustained demand and strong brand loyalty, even as the chain continues its robust growth push.
The meteoric rise of several even smaller coffee chains is also fueling the category’s growth. In Q3 2025, many of these emerging players saw double-digit visit gains, signaling that expansion opportunities in the coffee space extend well beyond the established giants.
7 Brew Coffee, one of the country’s fastest-growing coffee chains, led the visit growth pack, with foot traffic up 80.4% compared to Q3 2024 and same-store visits climbing an impressive 19.4%. Better Buzz Coffee Roasters followed with visits up 72.3% and a 2.4% rise in same-store visits – suggesting that its footprint expansion is being well-received. Florida chain Foxtail Coffee was the third growth leader in Q3 2025, with visits increasing 46.8% year-over-year, reflecting its growing footprint in states like Michigan and Georgia. Meanwhile, Black Rock Coffee Bar, which made headlines with a successful IPO last month, saw visits climb 6.5%, even as same-store visits edged just under 2024 levels.
The growing strength of these regional brands – many of which, like Dutch Bros, emphasize speed and convenience through drive-thru formats – could reshape the competitive coffee landscape heading into 2026.
While the wider dining sector is contracting, the coffee space is holding firm, with small chains helping to drive much of the segment’s growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
