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The festive season is upon us, making it the perfect time to focus on a retail category that truly shines in Q4 2024: gifting, books, and paper. Despite the digital age, consumers continue to show a strong preference for shopping for these items in-store and still value tangible versions of these products. However, as discretionary retail faces challenges in meeting consumer expectations, has this category managed to capture consumer excitement and deliver delight amidst competing distractions and purchase priorities?
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
Barnes & Noble's consistent and sustainable traffic growth can be attributed to several successful initiatives. The retailer has expanded its product categories, doubled down on gifting, strengthened its position as a third space, and tapped into consumers' enduring love for books—all of which have set it apart in a challenging discretionary retail landscape. The effectiveness of these efforts is reflected in the chain's dwell time, which averages 37 minutes—nearly 10 minutes longer than any of the other chains reviewed—and excels at keeping visitors in-store for over 30 minutes.
Barnes & Noble has done an impressive job of evolving its visitor demographics over time, particularly in the face of the digital revolution and the disruption of the book category. The success of specialty retailers often reflects broader cultural movements and shifts in consumer preferences, and Barnes & Noble is no exception. According to PersonaLive customer segments, the chain has significantly increased its penetration of younger consumer segments, such as Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles, when comparing 2024 year-to-date with 2019. Factors contributing to this trend could include the rise of book club culture among younger cohorts, the appeal of working from the in-store café, and an expanded assortment of gifts and paper products for special occasions.
This focus on younger consumers seems to be paying off. In 2024, 6% of Barnes & Noble visitors also shopped at a Hallmark location, although only 1% visited Paper Source, its sister brand. The integration of Paper Source shop-in-shops within Barnes & Noble locations may be cannibalizing cross-visitation between the two standalone chains.
As for Paper Source, it shares many of the elements driving Barnes & Noble's success but faces challenges in fully unlocking its potential. One key differentiator is its invitation business, but as consumers increasingly turn to digital platforms like Facebook or Paperless Post for invitations, even the booming wedding market hasn’t been enough to significantly drive growth.
A significant challenge for Paper Source comes from competition within the superstore category. This year, 87% of Paper Source visitors also shopped at Target, and 63% visited Walmart. Both retailers have invested heavily in expanding their party supplies, cards, and gifting assortments, making it more convenient for shoppers to purchase these items during a single trip, rather than visiting a separate specialty store.
Paper Source has a strong demographic foundation to build upon as it works toward stabilization. According to PersonaLive, the chain significantly outperforms Barnes & Noble in visitation percentages among Ultra Wealthy Families, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites, with Ultra Wealthy Families accounting for nearly a quarter of its visitors. Its frequent co-tenants reflect similar socio-economic patterns, aligning with successful specialty chains that appeal to wealthier shoppers, such as lululemon, Sephora, Anthropologie, Warby Parker, Madewell, and Apple. With these favorable dynamics in place, Paper Source has an opportunity to thrive—success may depend on effective messaging and marketing to this affluent customer base.
The differences between Hallmark stores and The Paper Store highlight contrasting strategies: one chain has successfully expanded its product offerings to capture a more engaged audience, while the other remains closely tied to the traditional paper category and has struggled to do the same. There is little overlap in visitation between the two chains, suggesting that consumers may perceive The Paper Store as entirely separate from Hallmark, despite its status as a Gold Crown retailer.
The Paper Store’s elevated and expanded assortment has fostered stronger loyalty among its visitors compared to the Hallmark chain. In 2024, loyal visitors—defined as those visiting twice per month—accounted for 12% of The Paper Store’s visitors, 2 percentage points higher than Hallmark. Additionally, The Paper Store serves more as a destination, with 37% of visitors heading home afterward, also 2 points higher than Hallmark. By expanding its product categories and curating localized selections, The Paper Store has successfully differentiated itself from the traditional Hallmark model, a strategy that could benefit the national chain as well.
The gifting, book, and paper retail category demonstrates varied consumer behavior across chains. The success of Barnes & Noble and The Paper Store underscores the importance of expanding product assortments to attract visits, as consumers increasingly seek convenience by consolidating their purchases in fewer trips. While consumers may tolerate more frequent visits for essential retail, in specialty retail, convenience and variety are critical. The category’s overall resilience suggests that consumers still have discretionary spending power for the right products at the right time, offering hope for retailers still refining their approach.
The sporting goods and sportswear category has had a rough couple of months. Two mainstays in the space – Bob’s Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports – filed for bankruptcy in June, and several sportswear and athleisure leaders posted disappointing results. So is the consumer demand for leggings and sneakers waning? Or is the category merely facing a temporary slowdown? We dove into the data to find out.
With budgets still tight, many shoppers are turning to value apparel and value athletic wear – and this trading down may be impacting the sporting goods and sportswear space: Q3 2024 visits to most sporting goods and athletic wear chains analyzed, including DICK’s Sporting Goods, Athleta, Academy Sports + Outdoor, and Hibbett Sports, remained at or moderately below 2023 levels. Still, the relatively minimal visit gaps indicate that demand for the category remains stable and may rise again with increased consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, lululemon athletica saw a 7.6% increase in YoY visits in Q3 2024 thanks to the company’s ongoing expansion.
But even as the sporting goods and sportswear category may be facing a temporary lull, diving into the demographics of the trade areas for the various retailers reveals the variety of sporting goods and sportswear consumers – showing the varied demand for the category.
The median household income within the trade areas of the five chains analyzed ranged from $54.8K for Hibbett Sports to $108.3K for Athleta. The share of households with children within the trade areas also varied among the chains: DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Academy Sports + Outdoors included significantly more households with children in their captured markets when compared with Athleta, lululemon, or Hibbett Sports.
It seems, then, that each chain appeals to a specific consumer segment – DICK’s and Academy Sports both serve families, although DICK’s attracts the higher-income households and Academy Sports draws more middle-income shoppers. Lululemon and Athleta both operate at the higher-end of the athletic wear spectrum, but Athleta shoppers tend to come from slightly more affluent areas with larger household sizes. And Hibbett has carved out a niche among lower-income consumers.
Demand for sportswear and gym gear may not be as strong as it was at the height of the pandemic when gyms were closed and consumers were doubling down on comfort. But the variety of audiences within the category leaders’ trade areas indicates that appetite for athletic wear and sporting goods is still widespread. And with Black Friday around the corner, these chains – and especially the higher-priced retailers among them – may well get a boost from price-conscious consumers looking to snag discounts at their favorite premium chains.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
Visits to the Placer 100 Index chains grew over the summer, as the back to school season drove a 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) jump in August 2024 visits. And visits in September 2024 were essentially on par with September 2023 levels – indicating that shoppers did not stay home to make up for retail’s summer surge, which could signal an increased willingness to spend ahead of the critical Q4.
And indeed, the fourth quarter of the year started strong, with the Placer 100 Index up 1.4% YoY in October 2024 – and with consumer confidence recently hitting a 9-months-high, the upcoming holiday season looks particularly promising.
Chili’s Grill & Bar topped the Placer 100 October chart in terms of both overall and per-location visit growth. The chain is still riding the wave of its Big Smasher Burger success, which sent visits skyrocketing following the product’s launch in late April. Warby Parker also saw impressive increases in overall visits and in visits per location as the chain continued opening new stores and adding eye exam offerings to existing locations.
Aldi and Crunch Fitness also saw growth in both metrics, with the increase in overall visits outpacing the strong increase in visits per location – pointing to a successful expansion strategy.
Hobby Lobby and Wendy’s also experienced increases in both overall visits and visits per location in October, with different paths leading to the two chains’ October successes.
Hobby Lobby’s visits follow clear seasonal patterns. The chain’s traffic usually peaks in December, but traffic already begins to rise in August as parents and teachers stock up on supplies and classroom decorations. Visit growth then ramps up throughout September and October as consumers purchase Halloween-themed costumes and decorations. So far, Hobby Lobby appears to be having a particularly successful year, with visits outpacing last year’s numbers since the summer – and with the chain’s busiest season of the year coming up, Hobby Lobby is positioned to close out the year with a bang.
Wendy’s, meanwhile, demonstrated how chains can create their own growth opportunities without aligning with existing calendar-driven spending occasions. The chain introduced the Krabby Patty Kollab menu items on October 2nd to celebrate the 25th anniversary of "SpongeBob SquarePants,” which sent visits surging. And YoY traffic was still up four weeks later, revealing the potential of LTOs to drive up dining traffic even in the absence of a specific seasonal boost.
Which chains will top the Placer 100 Index in November?
Visit placer.ai to find out!
Note: This post utilizes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1. and thus reflects minor adjustments in data from previous reports.
Amazon, Dell, Goldman Sachs, Walmart, UPS – these are just a few of the major employers that have been cracking down on remote work in recent months, some requiring their teams to be on-site full time.
So with summer behind us, we dove into the data to assess the impact these accumulating RTO mandates are having on the ground. Are offices continuing to fill up, or has the office recovery run its course?
In October 2024, office visits nationwide were 34.0% below October 2019 levels. And looking at monthly fluctuations in office foot traffic over the past five years shows that the RTO remains in full swing – with last month’s visits reaching the highest point seen since February 2020.
Digging down into regional data shows that in several major hubs – including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and San Francisco – October 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since COVID. And in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, and New York, October was the second-busiest month, outpaced only by July.
Still, New York and Miami continued to lead the regional office recovery pack, with October 2024 visits in the two cities up to 86.2% and 82.6%, respectively, of 2019 levels. The two hubs, joined by Atlanta and Dallas, continued to outperform the nationwide average. And Houston, which lagged behind other major business hubs during the summer in the wake of major storms, reclaimed its position just under the nationwide baseline.
In October 2024, visits to office buildings in Washington D.C. increased 16.4% year over year (YoY), likely boosted by an RTO push meant to increase meaningful in-person work in federal agencies – though many government employees continue to telework. Boston, where office building occupancy is outperforming national levels, visits saw a 15.6% YoY uptick. And Atlanta, where major employers from UPS to NCR Voyix are requiring workers to show their faces five days a week, saw visits grow 13.8% YoY.
Nationwide, office foot traffic increased 10.1% YoY – showing that the return-to-office is still very much a work in progress.
Office attendance fosters creativity, mutual learning, and a sense of community – and can be critical for early-career success. But working from home at least some of the time offers greater flexibility that can improve employees’ work-life balance and in some cases, even enhance productivity. How will companies and employees continue to navigate the ongoing RTO?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With the holiday season just around the corner, we dove into the Placer.ai Mall Index to see how these shopping mainstays performed during the fall retail lull.
Following several months of roller-coaster visit trends – as August visits surged compared to last year and September visits dipped year-over-year (YoY) – mall traffic stabilized in October: Last month’s visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls generally matched 2023 visitation trends. The closing of the YoY visit gaps may indicate that consumers are once again ready to spend following the brief September slow-down – boding well for the upcoming holiday season.
Diving into the weekly trends offers even further reasons for optimism: YoY visits over the last two full weeks of October were positive for all three mall categories, with outlet malls in particular seeing the largest YoY increases. Outlet malls’ positive performance during the second half of the month may signal a comeback for the format, which has generally lagged behind indoor malls and open-air shopping centers in recent months.
Unlike certain retail categories that enjoy Halloween-driven visit surges either on the day itself or on October 30th, malls do not appear to benefit from the spooky holiday. Analyzing daily visits reveals that October 30th visits were on par with the daily October average, while October 31st traffic actually took a hit across the three mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index.
The dip is likely due to shoppers putting off their mall trips and instead choosing superstores and specialty retailers such as party supply stores and liquor shops for their holiday prep. Stores hoping to avoid the Halloween dip may want to offer special promotions around the day – and managers can also use this information to optimize their staffing schedules on October 31st.
Diving into hourly visit distributions provides even more data for those looking to optimize store performance. On Halloween, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers received a larger share of their visits before 4:00 PM and relatively fewer visits in the evening when compared to an average Thursday in October. So while some consumers did come out to malls in the morning, by evening, many shoppers may have been too busy scrambling to complete their Halloween costume or stock up on candy for the evening. Meanwhile, the Halloween dip in visits to outlet malls appears to have been evenly spaced throughout the day, with hourly visit shares on October 31st closely matching the average Thursday visit distribution patterns.
Store managers operating in indoor malls or open-air shopping centers may use this data to optimize staffing for the afternoon and evening Halloween shifts, while those working at outlet malls may want to reconsider their manpower needs for the day as a whole. At the same time, those looking to draw in more foot traffic may try offering promotions that appeal to early birds or trick-or-treaters.
With October in the rearview mirror, the holiday season is kicking off. How will malls perform?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
As essential sectors of retail face a slowdown in traffic momentum, the need for unique offerings and competitive advantages is more pressing than ever. Grocery retailers have benefited from increased visits, which has kept consumers engaged with chains and their offerings, even if it hasn’t always translated into larger basket sizes. In an increasingly competitive grocery market, retailers will need to consistently prove to consumers that they’re worth the extra visit.
Specialty grocers are better positioned to meet this challenge as value-focused grocery options become more constrained. Many local and regional chains have the added benefit of nimble operating models, enabling them to quickly adapt to consumer preferences. Beyond that, these specialty chains have deeply embedded themselves in the communities they serve. Looking ahead to 2025 and the growing recognition of physical stores’ importance, the strong relationships between specialty grocery retailers and consumers could help them thrive in this evolving environment.
One specialty chain that stands out in this context is Stew Leonard’s. Beloved in the Tri-State area—an area known for outstanding grocery chains—Stew Leonard’s combines product expertise with a unique in-store experience, famously described by The New York Times as “the Disneyland of Dairy Stores.” Imagine a grocery store with animatronics and birthday parties! In an era when we need more joy in retail, Stew Leonard’s sets the gold standard. With just eight locations, each with a large footprint and a strong connection to its local community, Stew Leonard’s offers a compelling package. A robust private label program, specialty departments, and high service levels make this chain stand out without relying on promotions or low prices.
According to Placer’s foot traffic estimates, Stew Leonard’s has effectively hedged against the slowdown in growth seen by other full-price grocery chains this year. Year-to-date, the chain has experienced a 3% year-over-year increase, compared to flat growth for full-price chains. Examining trends over time, Stew Leonard’s has shown consistent, sustainable growth throughout 2022 and 2023, with an acceleration in visits in the latter half of this year, driven by the opening of its new store in Clifton, NJ.
One reason for Stew Leonard’s success is the elasticity of its consumer base. Operating in the Tri-State area allows the chain to tap into wealthier consumer segments compared to national chains. According to PersonaLive audience segmentation, Stew Leonard’s has more than double the concentration of Ultra Wealthy Families compared to full-price grocery chains, along with a high percentage of Wealthy Suburban Families. The chain also attracts a notable share of Young Urban Singles, likely drawn by its strong offerings in prepared and specialty foods.
Stew Leonard’s Danbury, CT location offers insight into the brand’s appeal to shoppers. According to Placer’s trade area metrics, 35% of visitors to this store travel from more than 10 miles away, and nearly 10% come from over 30 miles, with clusters of visits from across the Northeastern corridor.
Store-level metrics also reveal strong loyalty among Stew Leonard’s visitors. Year-to-date in 2024, over a quarter of visitors to the Danbury location visited at least four times, and 35% visited three or more times. At the same time, there is a substantial share of visitors who appear to make special, less frequent trips to the store. These visitors show high cross-visitation rates with other grocers, such as Costco and ShopRite, as well as with Stew Leonard’s own operated Wine and Spirits locations.
Stew Leonard’s exemplifies a retailer that resonates with local consumers while offering an experience that attracts visitors from further away. Its combination of unique experiences, services, and products creates a shopping experience that goes well beyond traditional retail. Even as visits slow down across the sector, specialty grocers that remain hyper-focused on their unique offerings are likely to continue drawing in customers.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
