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With the holiday season just around the corner, we dove into the Placer.ai Mall Index to see how these shopping mainstays performed during the fall retail lull.
Following several months of roller-coaster visit trends – as August visits surged compared to last year and September visits dipped year-over-year (YoY) – mall traffic stabilized in October: Last month’s visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls generally matched 2023 visitation trends. The closing of the YoY visit gaps may indicate that consumers are once again ready to spend following the brief September slow-down – boding well for the upcoming holiday season.
Diving into the weekly trends offers even further reasons for optimism: YoY visits over the last two full weeks of October were positive for all three mall categories, with outlet malls in particular seeing the largest YoY increases. Outlet malls’ positive performance during the second half of the month may signal a comeback for the format, which has generally lagged behind indoor malls and open-air shopping centers in recent months.
Unlike certain retail categories that enjoy Halloween-driven visit surges either on the day itself or on October 30th, malls do not appear to benefit from the spooky holiday. Analyzing daily visits reveals that October 30th visits were on par with the daily October average, while October 31st traffic actually took a hit across the three mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index.
The dip is likely due to shoppers putting off their mall trips and instead choosing superstores and specialty retailers such as party supply stores and liquor shops for their holiday prep. Stores hoping to avoid the Halloween dip may want to offer special promotions around the day – and managers can also use this information to optimize their staffing schedules on October 31st.
Diving into hourly visit distributions provides even more data for those looking to optimize store performance. On Halloween, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers received a larger share of their visits before 4:00 PM and relatively fewer visits in the evening when compared to an average Thursday in October. So while some consumers did come out to malls in the morning, by evening, many shoppers may have been too busy scrambling to complete their Halloween costume or stock up on candy for the evening. Meanwhile, the Halloween dip in visits to outlet malls appears to have been evenly spaced throughout the day, with hourly visit shares on October 31st closely matching the average Thursday visit distribution patterns.
Store managers operating in indoor malls or open-air shopping centers may use this data to optimize staffing for the afternoon and evening Halloween shifts, while those working at outlet malls may want to reconsider their manpower needs for the day as a whole. At the same time, those looking to draw in more foot traffic may try offering promotions that appeal to early birds or trick-or-treaters.
With October in the rearview mirror, the holiday season is kicking off. How will malls perform?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
As essential sectors of retail face a slowdown in traffic momentum, the need for unique offerings and competitive advantages is more pressing than ever. Grocery retailers have benefited from increased visits, which has kept consumers engaged with chains and their offerings, even if it hasn’t always translated into larger basket sizes. In an increasingly competitive grocery market, retailers will need to consistently prove to consumers that they’re worth the extra visit.
Specialty grocers are better positioned to meet this challenge as value-focused grocery options become more constrained. Many local and regional chains have the added benefit of nimble operating models, enabling them to quickly adapt to consumer preferences. Beyond that, these specialty chains have deeply embedded themselves in the communities they serve. Looking ahead to 2025 and the growing recognition of physical stores’ importance, the strong relationships between specialty grocery retailers and consumers could help them thrive in this evolving environment.
One specialty chain that stands out in this context is Stew Leonard’s. Beloved in the Tri-State area—an area known for outstanding grocery chains—Stew Leonard’s combines product expertise with a unique in-store experience, famously described by The New York Times as “the Disneyland of Dairy Stores.” Imagine a grocery store with animatronics and birthday parties! In an era when we need more joy in retail, Stew Leonard’s sets the gold standard. With just eight locations, each with a large footprint and a strong connection to its local community, Stew Leonard’s offers a compelling package. A robust private label program, specialty departments, and high service levels make this chain stand out without relying on promotions or low prices.
According to Placer’s foot traffic estimates, Stew Leonard’s has effectively hedged against the slowdown in growth seen by other full-price grocery chains this year. Year-to-date, the chain has experienced a 3% year-over-year increase, compared to flat growth for full-price chains. Examining trends over time, Stew Leonard’s has shown consistent, sustainable growth throughout 2022 and 2023, with an acceleration in visits in the latter half of this year, driven by the opening of its new store in Clifton, NJ.
One reason for Stew Leonard’s success is the elasticity of its consumer base. Operating in the Tri-State area allows the chain to tap into wealthier consumer segments compared to national chains. According to PersonaLive audience segmentation, Stew Leonard’s has more than double the concentration of Ultra Wealthy Families compared to full-price grocery chains, along with a high percentage of Wealthy Suburban Families. The chain also attracts a notable share of Young Urban Singles, likely drawn by its strong offerings in prepared and specialty foods.
Stew Leonard’s Danbury, CT location offers insight into the brand’s appeal to shoppers. According to Placer’s trade area metrics, 35% of visitors to this store travel from more than 10 miles away, and nearly 10% come from over 30 miles, with clusters of visits from across the Northeastern corridor.
Store-level metrics also reveal strong loyalty among Stew Leonard’s visitors. Year-to-date in 2024, over a quarter of visitors to the Danbury location visited at least four times, and 35% visited three or more times. At the same time, there is a substantial share of visitors who appear to make special, less frequent trips to the store. These visitors show high cross-visitation rates with other grocers, such as Costco and ShopRite, as well as with Stew Leonard’s own operated Wine and Spirits locations.
Stew Leonard’s exemplifies a retailer that resonates with local consumers while offering an experience that attracts visitors from further away. Its combination of unique experiences, services, and products creates a shopping experience that goes well beyond traditional retail. Even as visits slow down across the sector, specialty grocers that remain hyper-focused on their unique offerings are likely to continue drawing in customers.
In late 2022, we suggested that fitness clubs in a post-pandemic environment were better positioned to withstand a slower macroeconomic climate than in the past. This was due to lower monthly fee business models, increased workout frequency among consumers, a shift toward younger members, and reduced seasonality. With Planet Fitness reporting its Q3 2024 results this week and ten months of visitation data available for 2024, we decided to revisit that thesis—especially in light of the company’s decision to raise the monthly price of its Classic Card from $10 to $15 in late June.
In the third quarter, Planet Fitness posted systemwide same-club sales growth of 4.3% (4.5% growth in franchisee clubs and 3.4% growth in corporate-owned clubs). Approximately 50% of the Q3 2024 comp increase was driven by net member growth, with the remaining balance attributed to rate increases. Our data indicates that the decline in visitors has been relatively modest since the Classic Card price hike. Management corroborated this, noting they “expected a slight decline in membership in Q3 2024, which was more than offset by the rate improvement on the Classic Card and a higher Black Card mix.”
During the quarter, 63.1% of Planet Fitness members were Black Card members (paying $25 per month), up from 62.1% in the same period last year. Management noted that new members are increasingly opting for the higher-priced Black Card membership, likely due to the added value of extra amenities, including access to all club locations, unlimited guest privileges, unlimited use of massage chairs and tanning beds, and discounts on cooler drinks, compared to the base membership.
Planet Fitness’ visit-per-location trends further support our thesis that fitness clubs are more resilient to macroeconomic pressures than they were pre-pandemic. In 2019, Planet Fitness averaged nearly 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter, dropping to 68,000 in the fourth quarter—a 25% decrease. This year, Planet Fitness again began with 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter and is projected to close the year with 76,000-78,000 visits per location. This would represent a year-end decrease in the mid-teens, indicating a more stable membership base and lower churn rates than in past years.
Fitness clubs still face challenges in today’s consumer environment. For instance, Equinox-owned Blink Fitness filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, citing pandemic-related deferred rent payments and other factors in its filing. (On a related note, Planet Fitness reportedly made a bid for Blink Fitness this week.) Nonetheless, Planet Fitness' resilience underscores that fitness club unit economics have evolved over the past several years, potentially making them better equipped to handle diverse consumer environments.
While consumer confidence appears optimistic heading into the holidays, and businesses are feeling more assured now that the election is over, thrifting continues to benefit from tailwinds driven by last year's inflationary pressures, the shift toward sustainability, and Gen Z’s desire for unique items.
We analyzed year-over-year traffic for well-established chains like Goodwill and Salvation Army, as well as for smaller chains like Buffalo Exchange and Crossroads Trading Co. Among these, Savers Thrift Store has experienced the highest growth rate in recent months, with Goodwill also showing consistent increases compared to last year.
The thrift store footprint is quite strong nationwide, with a concentration of stores in the eastern half of the country and along the West Coast.
Thrifting is no longer just for lower-income households. In a sign of its upmarket appeal, over 1 in 10 of thrift store captured trade areas are now the "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" segment, and another 1 in 10 are from "Wealthy Suburban Families" according to PersonaLive customer segments. The chart below filters for visitors with a dwell time of at least 10 minutes, indicating that these segments aren’t merely dropping off donations—they’re sticking around to treasure hunt. The thrill of finding a hidden gem has been widely shared on social media platforms like TikTok, where one lucky shopper recently discovered a $6,000 couture wedding dress for the unbelievable price of $25 at Goodwill.
While Goodwill is undoubtedly the largest player in this field, with roughly ten times the visits of its nearest competitor, a substantial share of visits also goes to Plato’s Closet (with over 400 stores tracked by Placer), Salvation Army Stores (400+ tracked by Placer), and Savers Thrift Stores (100+ tracked by Placer). Interestingly, although Savers has just a quarter of the number of stores, its yearly visits nearly match those of Plato’s Closet and Salvation Army Stores during certain months of the year.
Plato’s Closet sees a notable spike in late July and early August, aligning with back-to-school shopping season. With its focus on teens and young adults and an emphasis on popular and fast-fashion brands, it’s no surprise that this chain resonates strongly with its youthful audience.
This past season, one of the major trends has been a love for all things '90s. Popular items include handkerchief hems, baby tees, crop tops, straight jeans, mom jeans, flared jeans (essentially anything but skinny jeans), and, of course, the essential graphic tee. Thrifters are on the hunt for that perfect vintage piece—something unique to wear to a concert or party and, most importantly, to showcase on social media.
Fashion is cyclical, and often, if you hold onto something long enough, it just might come back into style. Hoarders can rejoice, as new generations are now seeking out biker boots, pedal pushers, Fendi baguettes, and satin slip dresses. Today’s teens are also drawn to brands their parents might have worn, like surfer favorites Stussy, Roxy, and O’Neill. Miu Miu, a current favorite in the fashion world despite a slight slowdown in luxury, even sent board shorts down their runway. Miu Miu has consistently been on-trend over the past few years, from micro miniskirts to last month’s playful twist on athleisure with foot warmers and leg warmers.
Other notable ‘90s throwbacks include Hypercolor shirts—T-shirts that change color with body heat, like when a handprint is left behind. For the colder months, surf fashion is evolving into styles suited for cozy bonfire nights at the beach. "Shackets" (shirt jackets) in soft flannels and plaids are trending, with stores like Faherty and Marine Layer offering pieces reminiscent of the fashion seen in The O.C.
From a retail perspective, popular '90s and 2000s brands like Mango and True Religion are making a strong return to brick-and-mortar. Mango, a Spanish fast-fashion brand similar to Zara, first entered the U.S. in the 2000s but later withdrew in 2015. Now, it’s back with a U.S.-focused strategy, opening a flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue in New York—formerly home to iconic brands like NBC, Columbia Pictures, and Coca-Cola. Mango plans to have over 40 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2024 and 500 global stores by 2026.
In the ‘90s, pop stars like Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera made low-rise jeans with the iconic True Religion horseshoe logo a staple. Now, True Religion has returned, with Megan Thee Stallion as a spokesperson. The brand saw strong performance in spring and summer, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping in August. Although year-over-year traffic dipped slightly in September and October, we anticipate a rise in traffic with the upcoming holiday season.
Every year towards the end of October, consumers head to the shops for costumes, spooky yard decorations, candy and Halloween supplies. At the same time, many national dining chains roll out Halloween-themed limited time offers (LTOs) to lure in revelers. So what was this year’s Halloween impact on retail and dining visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Halloween may not be Black Friday, but the ghostly holiday drives significant dining and retail visit spikes of its own. Comparing daily visit patterns during the week of Halloween to previous weeks’ averages reveals Halloween’s varied impact on the different brick-and-mortar sectors.
For most retail sectors – including grocery stores, superstores, discount & dollar stores, and hobbies, gift & craft stores – holiday visits peaked on October 30th, as consumers got their Halloween supplies before the holiday. Hobbies, gift & craft stores saw the biggest visit increases, with traffic on Monday, October 28th already up 20.7% compared to the average for the previous four Mondays, as patrons sought out the perfect costume piece or yard decoration. Meanwhile, liquor stores – where visits also increased the day before Halloween – got an even bigger boost on October 31st, likely thanks to party hosts and guests grabbing last minute refreshments ahead of the night’s festivities.
Unlike in the retail space, where visits increased prior to the holiday, the Halloween-driven dining visit spike was confined to October 31st. Dining visits on Halloween were up 5.4% compared to the previous four Thursdays’ average – impressive for a category not traditionally associated with Halloween spending. This spike was likely fueled by the many Halloween-themed LTOs across the category.
Indeed, many of the major dining chains that saw double-digit visit spikes on October 31st offered Halloween-related promotions. Insomnia Cookies gave away cookies and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offered free donuts to customers who came in wearing costumes – and visits to the two chains jumped 60.4% and 45.4%, respectively, compared to the average of the previous four Thursdays. And the promise of discounts was almost as alluring as the promise of free stuff – Chipotle offered a deeply discounted entree to any Chipotle Rewards member coming in costume, leading to a 41.5% boost in Halloween foot traffic.
Full-service restaurants also got in on the Halloween action. Denny’s customers who dined on-site donning a costume received free Halloween pancakes, helping drive a 20.5% increase in Thursday visits on October 31st. IHOP, which offered a free “Scary Face Pancake” for kids 12 and under with the purchase of an adult entree, saw its visits rise 15.5% compared to its recent Thursday average. And Applebee’s “Dollar Zombie” cocktail – available throughout the month of October – may have contributed to the 14.4% Halloween visit increase from customers looking to consume the themed drink during the holiday.
Halloween prep often requires a trip to the store – so unlike dining chains, where traffic peaked on Halloween itself, most retail sectors received the largest holiday-driven boost on October 30th. Visits to Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale were up on Wednesday, October 30th compared to a recent Wednesday average – but by October 31st, foot traffic was mostly back to normal (although Walmart visits were still slightly elevated).
Meanwhile, discount & dollar leaders Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar experienced foot traffic jumps on both October 30th and October 31st – with the Halloween spikes at Dollar General and Family Dollar even surpassing the pre-Halloween boosts at those retailers. These visitation patterns indicate that consumers likely visit both superstores and dollar stores for pre-Holiday prep but are more likely to head to discount & dollar chains for last minute Halloween purchases.
While superstores and discount & dollar stores receive a significant share of Halloween-driven retail foot traffic, the biggest beneficiaries of the season appear to have been party supply stores – with Party City in the lead. Visits to the retailer began steadily increasing week-over-week in the beginning of September, with Wednesday, October 30th seeing a whopping 252.2% increase in visits compared to the average on the previous four Wednesdays.
Party City’s Halloween success indicates that, when it comes to special occasions, specialized retailers still play an important role in the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
Halloween brought consumers out to stores and restaurants, highlighting an appetite for celebrating special occasions which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season. How will the rest of Q4’s retail milestones perform?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
