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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from over 700 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Return-to-office mandates are once again the talk of the town, with companies from Amazon to AT&T set to crack down on remote work in the new year – in some cases, demanding that workers show up in person five days a week.
But how did the office recovery shape up in December 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
December is typically a quiet month for offices, with many Americans taking time off for the holidays to enjoy vacations and family gatherings. So, it may come as no surprise that office visits in December 2024 dropped to their lowest point of the year.
Compared to December 2019, office visits in December 2024 lagged by 39.2% – a bigger visit gap than that seen in either November (37.8%) or October (34.0%), as employees likely embarked on extended “workations” and enjoyed greater WFH flexibility during the holiday season. Put another way, December 2024 office foot traffic clocked in at 60.8% of pre-pandemic (December 2019) levels.
Still, offices were busier this December than last – in December 2023, the recovery compared to December 2019 stood at just 57.2%.
New York and Miami once again led the regional return to office (RTO) charge with Yo5Y visit gaps of 19.6% and 20.9%, respectively – though both cities’ Yo5Y numbers were weaker than those seen in either October or November.
Atlanta (-34.1%) and Dallas (-35.2%) also outperformed the nationwide average for Yo5Y office foot traffic. And with Dallas-based companies like AT&T and Southwest Airlines starting to enforce stricter in-office policies in the new year, the Texas hub may experience even more accelerated recovery in the coming months. (AT&T also has a strong presence in Atlanta, which may also benefit from the company’s crackdown.)
Meanwhile, San Francisco, which has long lagged in post-pandemic office recovery, finally pulled out of last place in December 2024 with a Yo5Y visit gap of 48.0%, just edging out Chicago. The impressive YoY office visit growth seen by the West Coast hub in recent months – likely fueled in part by Salesforce’s recent RTO mandate – appears to have finally left a tangible mark on the city’s Yo5Y ranking.
Year over year (YoY), visits to office buildings nationwide were up 6.4% in December 2024 – showing that despite seasonal setbacks, office visits remain overall on an upward trajectory. Atlanta (13.7%) and Boston (12.1%) led the way for YoY office recovery, followed by Washington, D.C. (10.6%) and San Francisco (10.4%).
As additional RTO mandates go into effect in the new year, the office recovery needle may move once again. Will additional companies jump on the full-time in-office bandwagon – or will hybrid work models continue to dominate?
Follow placer.ai’s data-driven office index reports to find out.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney have both emerged from bankruptcy proceedings with revitalized operational strategies. We took a closer look at the latest visit trends for the brands and uncovered how the demographics of their audiences have changed along with their real estate footprints.
David’s Bridal closed a significant number of stores in the second half of 2023 as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, leading to a year-over-year (YoY) drop in visits in the first half of 2024. But although the impact of the previous year’s rightsizing weighed on YoY visit growth, the second half of the year marked a turning point. Lapping the mid-2023 period of aggressive store closures, visits rebounded in August 2024 (3.5% visit growth YoY), and stayed close to or exceeded the previous year’s levels through the end of 2024 (6.3% visit growth YoY), signaling a stabilization in consumer traffic.
David’s Bridal's YoY visits per location numbers showcase the brand's resilience even more clearly. Visits per location were near or exceeded 2023 levels for most of 2024, and saw significant lifts in summer and fall – the most popular wedding seasons. This trend suggests that the retailer’s slimmed-down store fleet remains relevant in the bridal and occasion-attire space, particularly during critical retail moments – and highlights the chain’s ability to drive increased traffic to a smaller real estate footprint. More recent initiatives such as the October 2024 launch of a revamped loyalty program and a December 2024 partnership with delivery giant DoorDash also bode well for the brand’s growth potential in 2025.
JCPenney accelerated a years-long fleet consolidation strategy when it emerged from bankruptcy in 2020 and completed the bulk of its rightsizing campaign by the end of 2021. In 2023, the retailer announced a $1 billion, multi-year reinvestment plan to make massive improvements to operations and the customer experience.
The strategic reinvestment appears to be working: Last year, JCPenney steadily closed its YoY visit and visits per location gaps, which shrank to just -3.0% and -1.8%, respectively in Q4 ‘24 – signaling a sustained foot traffic turnaround for the brand.
Several of JCPenney’s recent initiatives likely played a part in the brand’s upward foot traffic trajectory. During fiscal Q3, the brand invested $51 million in store operations – part of the $1 billion earmarked in 2023 – and saw positive results from a Thursday Night Football promotion and a revamped loyalty program. This indicates that JCPenney may be able to sustain its foot traffic momentum with additional campaigns and continued investment in its stores – and with the chain's recently announced merger with Forever 21, 2025 is looking particularly bright.
While both chains’ foot traffic is on the rise, analysis of David’s Bridal’s and JCPenney’s trade areas reveals a key difference in the two companies’ audience strategies.
In Q4 ‘22, the median household income (HHI) in the captured markets of David’s Bridal and JCPenney was lower than in their potential markets – meaning that both chains attracted visitors from the lower-income households within their wider trade areas. But by Q4 ‘24, David’s Bridal captured market had a higher HHI than its potential market – meaning that it was now attracting the more affluent residents within its trade area. Meanwhile, the median HHI in JCPenney’s captured market continued to fall short of the median HHI in its potential market – although both its captured and potential market HHI has increased over the years.
The now elevated median HHI of David’s Bridal’s captured market suggests that the brand’s rightsizing efforts are driving traffic from a higher-income audience to its remaining locations. And given the relatively high price of wedding gowns, the chain’s recent popularity among more affluent consumers offers another indication of David’s Bridal newfound strength. JCPenney, on the other hand, has stated its commitment to maintaining accessible price points in order to best serve “America’s working families” as the chain continues to attract the lower-income shoppers within its trade area.
The successful turnaround of JCPenney and David’s Bridal – despite their appeal to very different audiences – showcases the various paths available for retail resurgences in today’s consumer landscape.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney serve as powerful examples of how strategic rightsizing and targeted investments can drive a foot traffic turnaround. Both brands have leveraged smaller, optimized real estate footprints and successful promotional activity to boost visits per location and appeal to their target audiences.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. The goal of the index is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
In December 2024, retail and dining visitation slowed slightly, with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index down 0.8% year over year (YoY). The December dip was likely due in part to an extra Saturday last year – the busiest day of the week for many retail and dining chains.
But comparing overall visits in November and December 2024 to the same months in 2023 shows that visits to the Placer 100 Index remained on par with 2023 levels (+0.0%) during the last two months of the year. So despite headwinds and a shorter shopping season (just 28 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared to 33 last year), brick-and-mortar retail and dining establishments ultimately attracted the same number of holiday season visits, all told, as they did last year.
Ever since the launch of Chili’s Big Smasher Burger promotion in late April 2024, YoY visits to Chili’s have been on the rise, buoyed by diners eager to indulge in a full-service experience at a QSR price point. And in December 2024, the chain once again topped the Placer 100 rankings, with visits to the chain up an impressive 21.0% YoY – fewer Saturdays notwithstanding.
Fitness clubs also figured prominently on December’s Placer 100 list, as did budget mainstay Aldi – underscoring the continued robust demand for no-frills, value-oriented grocery offerings. Notably, Family Dollar saw a 4.2% YoY increase in average visits per location – potentially reflecting the success of parent company Dollar Tree’s rightsizing efforts. Meanwhile, Big Lots saw a 5.2% YoY visit bump, likely fueled by strong consumer interest in its liquidation sales.
But value wasn’t the only winner of this year’s holiday season. Upscale department store Nordstrom enjoyed a substantial YoY visit uptick in November and December 2024 – with overall visits to the chain rising 6.5%. This stands in sharp contrast to the wider department stores sector, which experienced a 3.2% decline during the same period.
A look at the demographic profile of Nordstrom’s captured market shows that the chain’s success is likely due in part to its affluent – and young – customer base. In November and December 2024, the median household income of the census block groups (CBGs) from which Nordstrom drew its shoppers – weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each CBG – stood at $113.1K, significantly higher than the $81.3K median for the wider department store space. Nearly a third of Nordstrom's captured market (27.4%) was composed of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – compared to 9.5% for the sector as a whole. And unlike other department stores, which were slightly less likely than average to attract “Young Professionals,” that segment made up 9.7% of Nordstrom’s captured market, well above the nationwide baseline of 5.8%. As Gen-Z leads the charge back to malls, Nordstrom’s robust foothold among younger consumers bodes well for its future success.
Like many department stores, Nordstrom relies on the holiday season to bolster its annual bottom line – in 2024, November and December visits accounted for nearly a quarter (22.5%) of the chain’s total visits for the year. A strong performance during these critical months is a positive signal of good things to come – and with the chain being taken private by its founding family, we may see moves aimed at further solidifying Nordstrom’s position in the months ahead.
Despite fewer shopping days, the 2024 holiday shopping season proved resilient – with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index remaining on par with 2023 levels. While value chains continued to dominate the rankings, upscale retailers like Nordstrom also enjoyed significant success. What trends will the Placer 100 Index uncover in the new year?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Malls demonstrated their resilience once again in 2024, will traffic to the three shopping formats essentially on par with 2023 levels despite the ongoing consumer headwinds. Indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even saw slight increases – of 1.5% and 1.7% year-over-year (YoY), respectively – while outlet malls experienced a minimal visit decline of 0.4%.
So although YoY visits dipped at all three mall formats in December 2024 – likely due to the month having one less Saturday than December 2023 – malls appear well positioned going into 2025.
The 2024 traffic performance of each format may be correlated with the income levels of the format’s visitor base. Open-air shopping centers, which received the largest YoY visit boost, also attracted the most affluent visitors who were likely less impacted by the ongoing consumer headwinds. Meanwhile outlet malls – which saw slight YoY traffic dips – drew visitors from areas with the lowest household income.
The holidays are particularly busy for shopping centers as consumers shop Black Friday discounts, meet mall Santas, buy gifts, and hang out with family and friends. But comparing average daily visits between Black Friday (November 11th) and New Years Eve (December 31st) with average daily visits during the rest of the year (January 1st to November 28th) reveals that the holiday boost is not distributed equally across the three mall formats.
Outlet malls received the largest Holiday-driven visit boost and Indoor malls came in at a close second, with visits during the holiday season up 59.3% and 57.0%, respectively. Open-air shopping centers lagged behind the other two formats, with daily visits up just 31.4% compared to the rest of the year.
Diving deeper into the data reveals that weekdays receive the largest lift, with weekday traffic at indoor and outlet malls during the holiday season up 63.0% and 66.4%, respectively, compared to the non-holiday season daily average.
The holidays don’t just drive an increase in traffic – dwell time at malls also tends to be longer between Black Friday and New Years Eve when compared to the rest of the year. Visit length at indoor and outlet malls increased by an average of 4.7 minutes, while dwell time at open-air shopping centers grew by an average of 3.1 minutes.
Malls’ holiday success proves once again that shopping centers continue to play an important role in the wider retail landscape. How will indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls perform in 2025?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
With 2024 firmly in the rearview mirror, we look back on the year’s retail foot traffic trends and what they may signal for 2025. Read on for a closer analysis of the retail categories and states that excelled at driving growth.
Overall retail visits increased year-over-year for most months of 2024, with many of the sporadic visit gaps likely due to extraneous circumstances as opposed to any real consumer slowdown.
Last year’s largest YoY retail visit gap – in January 2024 – could be attributed to severe winter weather in large parts of the country. And the April, September, and December YoY visit dips are likely partially due to calendar shifts, with April 2024 affected by the Easter calendar shift and September and December disadvantaged by having one less Saturday than in 2023.
Still, looking at 2024 as a whole revealed that the year did outperform 2023, with overall retail visits up 0.4% – suggesting that consumer behavior remains resilient and that 2025 could mark a further turnaround if cooling inflation meets consumer expectations.
But diving deeper into the data reveals significant variation among the major retail categories. Discount & dollar stores (2.8% YoY growth) and superstores (1.7% YoY growth) came out ahead of the pack, highlighting consumers’ demand for value in the face of high prices and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile – and as might be expected in a period of financial strain – many discretionary retail categories lagged in 2024. The Furniture & Home Furnishings category in particular saw the steepest decline with negative visit trends from January to July 2024, but the category did finish strong with a 3.5% YoY increase in Q4 2024 visits – a promising sign for 2025.
Last year’s retail foot traffic gains were also unevenly distributed geographically.
While most states saw modest YoY visit growth, Maine (2.2%) and North Dakota (2.0%) topped the list in 2024. Notably, foot traffic in both states showed resilience during even the most challenging periods of the year.
In Maine, a recent increase in inbound domestic migration may have contributed to the state’s foot traffic success. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s large share of superstore and discount & dollar store traffic was likely behind its overall retail visit growth in 2024.
Analyzing 2024 retail trends revealed that consumers navigated uncertainty while showcasing resilience — a promising foundation for the new year. Will this momentum continue in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Florida emerged as a domestic relocation hotspot during the pandemic – and analyzing domestic migration trends over the past four years reveals that most newcomers to Florida have stayed in the Sunshine State. We dove into the data to find out just how big a piece of the domestic relocation pie went to Florida – and see where the newcomers came from, where they chose to settle, and which Florida destinations attracted the most affluent new residents.
Domestic migration picked up over the pandemic, as many Americans liberated from the constraints of in-person work chose to move to areas with more space, a lower cost of living, and better outdoor recreational opportunities.
The map below highlights the states that received net inbound domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024, with the percentages representing the share of inter-state positive net migration welcomed by each state during the analyzed period.
As the map shows, Florida was one of the major beneficiaries of the recent domestic migration boom. Between July 2020 and July 2024, Florida received 24.7% of positive intra-state migration in the United States. (In other words, 24.7% of inbound net migration to states with overall positive net migration went to Florida.) Texas, another oft-discussed pandemic relocation hub, came in second, receiving a significantly smaller 17.6% of the total inter-state positive net migration pie.
Most of Florida’s recent population influx dates back to the Covid era – diving deeper into the monthly data reveals that the biggest jump in migration over the past four years took place between late 2020 and early 2022. And although inbound migration slowed somewhat in 2023 and 2024, the Sunshine State’s net migrated percent of population compared to a July 2020 baseline remained steady at about 2.5% to 3.1% (depending on the season). This means that 2.5% to 3.1% of Florida’s residents have moved there over the past four years – indicating that most people who moved to Florida at the height of the pandemic have remained in the Sunshine State.
So where is Florida getting its new residents from?
Analyzing net migration to Florida by state of origin reveals that Florida received net positive migration from most of the country during the analyzed period – but the influx from some states was particularly significant.
The map below charts the share of net migration to and from Florida by state of origin or destination between July 2020 and July 2024. The purple represents states from which Florida received net positive migration – more people moved to Florida from those states than the other way around – and the percentage indicates each state's share of the total net positive migration to Florida. The yellow represents states which received net positive migration from Florida – more people moved to those states from Florida than vice versa – with the percentage showing each state's share of the total net negative migration from Florida.
As the data shows, much domestic migration to the Sunshine State came from the Mid Atlantic region – with relatively expensive New York and New Jersey standing out as the biggest feeder states – as well as from Illinois and California, two more high-cost-of-living states. Illinois and the Mid Atlantic states also tend to have relatively cold winters. Meanwhile, Florida mostly lost residents to neighboring states and to Texas, with a much smaller share of its net negative migration going to Alaska, Michigan, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
It is likely, then, that Florida’s affordability and mild winters served as significant migration draws.
People may be moving to Florida from all over the United States. But where are they moving to in the Sunshine State? Mapping domestic migration trends onto Florida’s metro areas reveals that most of the inbound domestic migration is concentrated in Central Florida. Indeed, just three Central Florida metro areas – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven – accounted for nearly half (41.5%) of the total net positive migration to Florida during the analyzed period.
Although the Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland metro areas are contiguous, the demographic profiles of new residents settling in the three CBSAs are quite different. For example, Tampa, which boasts the highest median household income (HHI) of the three metro areas ($65.1K, compared to $61.1K for Orlando and $55.1K for Lakeland), also drew the greatest share of domestic migrants from affluent areas (median HHI > $100K).
Each of the three central Florida CBSAs also attracted newcomers from different areas of the country. Tampa exhibited the most diversity, with its top 5 CBSAs of origins representing under 50% of total net migration to the metro area. Orlando, on the other hand, received almost 50% of its net domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024 from just two metro areas: New York and Miami. And for Lakeland, over 50% of the inbound net migration came from within the Sunshine State – including 31.6% from the Orlando CBSA and 9.5% from the Tampa metro area.
It is likely, then, that newcomers to Tampa are coming mostly from wealthy areas throughout the country, while Orlando draws slightly less affluent – but still relatively high-income – newcomers from dense urban areas. Meanwhile, Lakeland appears to attract local Floridians who may be looking for a more affordable living situation without moving too far away from their current communities.
Thanks to its mild winters, affordability, and lifestyle appeal, Florida emerged as a major pandemic relocation destination, and recent migration data reveals that many of those who moved in between 2020 and 2024 have stayed in the Sunshine State. In particular, the central Florida hubs of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven attracted an outsize share of new Florida residents, with each metro area showcasing unique inbound migration patterns.
What will domestic migration patterns look like in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
