With the rise of hybrid and remote work, we’ve observed a notable shift in everyday consumer behaviors, particularly around fitness, shopping, running errands, and grabbing takeout. Without the need to commute on certain days, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze in a workout or make a quick trip to a store. Local outdoor shopping centers have become prime beneficiaries of this new “pop-in, pop-out” behavior. Here, we explore some of the brands poised to thrive in this evolving landscape.

At the start of this year, we predicted that the beauty category boom we witnessed last year would persist, with wellness and self-care becoming integral parts of that definition. For many, self-care includes a good workout, whether low-impact or high-intensity. We've previously highlighted fitness trends, with brands like Club Pilates and Orangetheory Fitness continuing to demonstrate year-over-year growth. A perfect post-workout activity might include a massage or chiropractic session to ease sore muscles or restore alignment—services that have driven increased traffic for brands like Massage Envy and Joint Chiropractic. Another standout is Madison Reed, which offers "salon results without salon cost or time" and continues to expand its footprint.

The next group of brands stands out for their ubiquity—you’re likely to find one or more of these stores in any local outdoor shopping center. UPS is indispensable for shipping and returning items, serving as a go-to for everyday logistics. Meanwhile, telecommunications and internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Xfinity maintain a steady customer base, driven by the regular upgrade cycle for cell phones and service plans.

Another home improvement and furnishings replacement cycle may be upon us. Pandemic-driven nesting behaviors accelerated demand in previous years, but now, many consumers are cautiously approaching this phase. Instead of investing in big-ticket items like dining or living room furniture, there’s growing enthusiasm for budget-friendly updates, such as applying a fresh coat of paint. Sherwin-Williams stands out as a key player, experiencing increased foot traffic. This rise in paint store visits could signal a positive trend for future investments in home improvement, redecorating, and refurnishing.

Next, we have some tasty additions perfect for local outdoor shopping centers. Americans’ love affair with chicken shows no signs of slowing down. Dave’s Hot Chicken has developed a cult following for its juicy, flavorful chicken, while Raising Cane’s draws loyal fans for its irresistible tenders and signature sauce. Bb.q Chicken offers a unique twist, boasting over a dozen wing flavors, including Caribbean Spice, Hot Mala, and Cheesling cheese dust.

With Black Friday just a week away, it's the perfect time to reflect on the state of retail and what lies ahead over the next 28 days as consumers prepare for holiday gatherings, celebrations, and gift-giving. The retail industry in 2024 has been anything but consistent—some categories continue to thrive, others have struggled, and a few are clawing their way back to prominence.

This year’s holiday season is likely to follow a similar pattern, but the key differentiator is time. As we highlighted in our TL;DR newsletter on LinkedIn this week, the 2024 holiday shopping period has five fewer days compared to last year, reminiscent of the 2019 vs. 2018 holiday timeline. Holiday shopping kicked off earlier this year, with department stores seeing increased activity in October. With a condensed holiday window, it’s now up to retailers to drive more frequent visits and encourage consumers to linger longer in their stores.

Analyzing daily visits during last year’s holiday season, there were five weekends compared to four this year. Across key holiday gifting retail categories in 2023, those five weekends (Saturday and Sunday combined) accounted for 39% of total holiday season visits, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Eve. Individually, each weekend contributed between 7% and 9% of total sector visitation, with the last two weekends each capturing 9%. In 2024, each weekend would need to account for approximately 10% of total holiday season visits to match last year’s pace.

One advantage of having fewer weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the reduction in lull periods, which are traditionally challenging for retailers trying to attract visitors. This year, two of the four weekends include Black Friday weekend and Super Saturday. In 2023, Black Friday alone accounted for 7% of total holiday visitation across the analyzed sectors, meaning a strong Black Friday could help offset the impact of having fewer weekends. By sector, Black Friday holds particular importance for department stores and consumer electronics retailers, as they typically see a higher share of visits on that day compared to other categories.

Another way to offset the five fewer shopping days? Increasing the time consumers spend in stores. In 2023, dwell times during Black Friday weekend (Thursday–Sunday) were, on average, three minutes longer than the full-year average across the analyzed sectors. Department stores had the largest gap, with visitors staying six minutes longer than average on Black Friday, followed by consumer electronics, superstores, and beauty retailers. These sectors are among the most popular for holiday shoppers during Black Friday weekend, making it encouraging that visitors stayed longer while seeking holiday deals.

A final advantage for physical retail is that fewer shopping days mean a shorter delivery window for e-commerce. With less time to shop, the holidays could sneak up on consumers, potentially driving more visitors into stores this year. While this is purely speculative, our enthusiasm for physical retail at Placer compels us to make at least one bold prediction!

The past several years have been a boom period for affordable indulgences – with consumers tightening their purse strings and finding inexpensive ways to treat themselves. Against this backdrop, discount specialty retailers Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet have been growing their footprints – and their audiences. But have the two chains reached their growth ceilings?  How did they fare in Q3 2024 – and what can they expect this holiday season? 

We dove into the data to find out. 

Growing Audiences

Five Below opened a record 205 new stores last year, leaning into growing consumer demand for low-cost toys, decor, and other indulgences. And though the chain announced plans to moderate fleet growth following a below-target Q2 2024, visit data shows that overall, the chain remains well-positioned for continued success. In Q3 2024, Five Below’s growing footprint fueled a 13.8% chain-wide year-over-year (YoY) visit boost. Though the average number of visits to each individual Five Below location remained slightly below 2023 levels, the chain’s visit-per-location gap narrowed to 1.6% from 4.3% in Q2. And in some key growth markets, Five Below saw significant increases in both YoY visits and visits per location: California, one of Five Below’s biggest regional markets and the focus of a major expansion push this year, saw visits per location grow 4.4% amidst a 21.6% overall visit increase.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet is another value-focused specialty retailer that has benefited from consumer trading down in recent years. And foot traffic data highlights the success of Ollie’s ongoing expansion: In Q3 2024, foot traffic to Ollie’s increased 7.5% YoY, while the average number of visits to each Ollie’s location also increased slightly by 0.9%. Though this represents a smaller visit-per-location increase than that seen in Q2, Ollie’s ability to maintain strong per-location visit levels while increasing its store count shows that the chain’s offerings are still meeting robust demand. And Ollie’s shows no sign of slowing down – snapping up former Big Lots store leases and plotting westward expansion. 

What About the Holidays?

Five Below and Ollie’s are both popular holiday shopping destinations. But what can the two retailers expect this year? 

Visit data shows that Five Below and Ollies experience holiday milestones somewhat differently. Ollie’s, with its broad selection of deeply discounted high-ticket items, sees a slightly bigger Black Friday spike than Five Below: On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ollie’s surged by 222.9% compared to a 2023 daily average, higher than Five Below’s none-too-shabby 204.1%. 

Meanwhile, the run-up to Christmas is is Five Below’s time to shine – with visits slowly increasing throughout December before reaching a crescendo on Super Saturday. In 2023, Five Below’s busiest day of the year was December 23rd, as customers flocked to the chain to pick up stocking stuffers, festive decor, and other inexpensive holiday items. Ollie’s, on the other hand, saw a more moderate 171.7% Super Saturday visit increase. As Five Below continues to expand its pricier “Five Beyond” offerings, Black Friday may take on greater importance for the retailer in coming years. 

But while Ollie’s visit peaks were more subdued than those of Five Below throughout most of the holiday season, the chain’s treasure hunt vibe consistently drew longer visitor dwell times. On Black Friday last year, 26.5% of visitors to Ollie’s remained in-store for more than 45 minutes, compared to just 18.3% at Five Below. And despite Ollie’s significantly smaller Super Saturday crowds, customers spent substantially more time browsing its aisles to snag the perfect bargain find. 

Looking Ahead

Five Below and Ollie’s both appear poised to enjoy a busy holiday season. Will the retailers deliver? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out. 

The Kroger Co. has come a long way from its humble beginnings as a single grocery store in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1883. Today, the brand operates over 2,700 stores under its numerous grocery store banners.

We analyzed the visitation patterns at some of Kroger’s largest chains to see how these brands have fared over the past few months, and looked at what last year’s visit data can tell us about the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.

Visits To Kroger Banners Show Stability in Q3 

The Kroger Co.’s various grocery banners vary in size and scale, with its eponymous banner Kroger – more than 1200 stores across much of the midwest and south – attracting the largest visit share relative to the company’s full grocery portfolio. Kroger’s other major regional chains, including Harris Teeter (mid and south atlantic states); Ralphs (California), King Soopers (primarily Colorado), Food 4 Less (California, Illinois, and Indiana), Smith’s (Mountain states), Fry’s (Arizona), and Fred Meyer (Pacific northwest), lend the company considerable presence nationwide. 

On the whole, visits to the analyzed Kroger chains remained fairly close to 2023’s levels, with visits to Kroger, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, Smith’s, and Fry’s sustaining minor YoY visit gaps. No-frills value chain Food 4 Less enjoyed 2.7% YoY visit growth in Q3, likely buoyed by the same trading down behaviors that have propelled growth at other low-cost supermarkets this year. Ralphs and King Soopers also saw YoY visit growth, perhaps aided by California and Colorado’s relatively high median household incomes (HHIs) – $94.1K and $89.1K, respectively, according to data from STI: PopStats, compared to the nationwide baseline of $76.1K. 

Shoppers Lingering at Discount, Hypermarket Options

Kroger’s extensive reach allows it to appeal to a wide range of grocery shoppers. The company operates both discount grocery chains, such as Food 4 Less, more upscale ones like Harris Teeter, and everything in between. 

Diving into the share of visits lasting 30 minutes or longer at individual Kroger banners reveals substantial variation, with Fred Meyer and Food 4 Less receiving the highest shares of long visits among the analyzed chains. In Q3 2024, 30.3% of Fred Meyer visits and 30.7% of Food 4 Less visits lasted over 30 minutes – a stark contrast to Ralphs (20.9%), Harris Teeter (22.6%) and King Soopers (23.5%). 

This variance in dwell times may reflect the differing offerings of each chain. Hypermarket Fred Meyer provides a wide range of services beyond groceries – including pharmacies, department stores, and jewelry offerings – which could encourage shoppers to spend more time exploring. And Food 4 Less falls squarely into the discount grocery segment, one that often sees customers spending more time in-store searching for the best deals. 

Turkey Wednesday Poised to Bring the Crowds

While not (yet!) an official holiday, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is one of the most important days of the year for grocers as shoppers flock to stores to pick up last-minute items for their upcoming feasts. 

And while Thanksgiving is still over a week away, analyzing trends from previous years can help grocers prepare for the coming frenzy. On November 22nd, 2023 – the day before Thanksgiving – visits across all analyzed Kroger chains shot up between 55.3% and 92.6% compared to the daily visit average for 2023. And visitors at each of the chains stayed longer in-store than they typically did during the rest of the year. 

With visits to Kroger’s major banners either nearly on par with or ahead of last year’s levels, the company appears well-positioned to enjoy another year of strong Turkey Wednesday visits.

Final Thoughts

If previous years are any indication, Kroger’s grocery banners should be preparing for a surge in Thanksgiving shopping. Will visits outpace those of last year?

Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven grocery insights.

With the year almost over, we dove into the visitation data for off-price leaders to see how the TJX chains, Burlington, and Ross Dress for Less are positioned ahead of the holidays.

Off-Price Still Going Strong 

The off-price segment continued to outperform the wider apparel category in recent months as consumers continued favoring budget-friendly retail outlets. Visits to TJX-owned T.J. Maxx and Marshalls as well as to Burlington remained elevated, with the three chains seeing YoY growth of 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4% in Q3 2024. And while Ross foot traffic declined slightly relative to 2023 in July, September, and October, the chain’s YoY visit gap remained significantly smaller than that of the wider apparel category.

Ross Attracts the Most Loyal Following 

And even as Ross lags slightly behind the rest of the off-price space, the chain leads the segment in one metric – the share of returning visitors every month. In Q3 2024, over half of Ross’ monthly visits came from visitors who visited the chain at least twice in the month, compared with 41.9% - 47.6% of visits from returning visitors for the other three off-price leaders. 

This data indicates that Ross is already extremely successful at cultivating a loyal clientele that regularly visits the company’s stores – and adding new shoppers to its circle of dedicated customers could drive further YoY visit growth going forward.

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Off-Price Leaders Stay True to Their Audience

Expansion has been a major driver of off-price growth in recent years. Since 2019, the four off-price chains analyzed have all greatly increased their brick-and-mortar footprints, leading to visit surges nationwide. 

And impressively, T.J.Maxx, Marshalls, Burlington, and Ross have all managed to expand their physical reach dramatically without straying from their core audience. Diving into the four chains’ trade area demographics in Q3 2019 and Q3 2024 reveals that, even as the retailers’ store fleet configurations evolved, their trade area demographics remained strikingly consistent. 

Since 2019, the share of large households in the retailers’ trade areas has remained remarkably steady – though all four brands have seen a slight increase in the share of 4+ person households. The trade areas’ median household incomes (HHIs) did shift slightly as the chains expanded – falling for T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and, to a lesser extent, Ross, while increasing somewhat for Burlington – but the change from 2019 has been minimal.  

It seems, then, that these four off-price leaders have successfully grown their reach over the past five years while maintaining a strong connection with their core customer base, positioning them for continued sustained success in the competitive retail landscape.

As the holiday season approaches, the off-price retail sector remains resilient. The year-over-year growth and high loyalty rates seen by category leaders along with their success at expanding without alienating their core audiences positions these chains to remain a formidable force within the wider retail landscape. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog. 

The all-important fourth quarter of the year is underway, and leading beauty chains like Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply are gearing up for an exciting holiday shopping season. We dove into the data to see how the two chains have performed in recent months – and what they can expect in this year’s Q4 retail milestones.

Ramping Up Ahead of the Holidays

In Q3 2024 (July - September), quarterly visits to Ulta and Sally Beauty were essentially on par with last year’s levels. Ulta saw a minor year-over-year (YoY) uptick of 1.2%, while Sally Beauty maintained a slight visit gap. 

Diving into monthly visit trends, ever-expanding Ulta experienced positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the summer – especially in August, when an additional Saturday provided vacationers and back-to-school shoppers with extra weekend browsing time. And though visits to the chain dipped in September, they quickly bounced back again, with October seeing a 4.5% YoY visit boost likely bolstered by Halloween offerings and seasonal sales. 

Sally Beauty, for its part, has been closing locations as part of a store optimization plan implemented largely in 2023. Viewed against this backdrop, the chain’s modest monthly visit gaps – which narrowed to just 0.2% in October 2024 – are particularly impressive. And Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. has remained nimble on its feet, testing new concepts like Happy Beauty Co., a new store format with cosmetics and other self-care products priced under $10. 

For both chains, their October showing signals that eager customers are gearing up for a busy Q4.

Looking Back to See Ahead 

But how do Ulta and Sally Beauty experience the holiday season? Which retail milestones resonate most strongly with their customers – and where do they see the most impressive holiday visit boosts? 

Ulta Beauty leans heavily into Black Friday each year with early deals that culminate in a shopping bonanza on the day after Thanksgiving – and in 2023, the milestone was the chain’s busiest day of the year. On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ulta were up 270.6% compared to a 2023 daily average. The second-busiest day of the year for Ulta was Super Saturday (December 23rd, 2023), which saw a 219.0% visit bump. 

Still, looking at major Ulta markets throughout the country reveals significant regional variation in holiday milestone visitation patterns. Like many other retailers, Ulta experiences bigger Black Friday visit bumps in midwestern metro areas like Chicago, and much smaller ones in California hubs like Los Angeles. And though Black Friday is more important for the chain than Super Saturday on a national level, several CBSAs – including Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles – saw bigger boosts on Super Saturday than on Black Friday. 

Sally Beauty – with its more specialized focus on hair care products – sees smaller holiday visit bumps than Ulta. But the chain’s holiday deals do draw crowds. December 23rd was Sally Beauty’s busiest day last year, with visits up 86.2% nationwide and significantly elevated throughout the chain’s major markets. And though Black Friday is much less significant for the retailer – in 2023, it was only Sally Beauty’s 11th busiest day of the year – the chain’s Black Friday deals drove a 55.4% visit bump.

Going the Distance for Holiday Finds

And visits aren’t the only thing that increase at Ulta and Sally Beauty during the holidays. Looking at driving distances to the two chains shows that on Q4 milestones – and especially Black Friday – people travel farther to shop the sales. On Black Friday 2023, and to a lesser extent Super Saturday, both retailers saw significant jumps in the share of visitors traveling more than 10 or 30 miles to visit their brick-and-mortar locations. 

Much to Anticipate

Affordable luxuries like cosmetics and hair care products make the perfect stocking stuffers for consumers still concerned about high prices. And if last year’s holiday trends are any indication, Ulta and Sally Beauty appear poised to enjoy a very festive holiday season indeed. 

Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven retail insights.