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Dollar stores often benefit from consumer pullbacks – and with soaring gas prices and plummeting consumer sentiment, spring 2026 had all the ingredients for a category-wide boost.
But location analytics reveal a more nuanced picture, with Dollar General and Dollar Tree on notably different trajectories. We dove into the data to explore some of the factors behind the gap and what they reveal about today’s value-driven shopper.
Same-store visit data shows Dollar General outpacing Dollar Tree throughout the first four months of 2026, with the gap between the two chains widening as the year progressed. By March, Dollar Tree visits had slipped into negative territory (-0.6% YoY), with declines reaching -3.5% in April. Dollar General, meanwhile, maintained low-single-digit growth of 1.9% and 2.3% in March and April, respectively.
The divergence mirrors each chain’s recent sales drivers. Last quarter, Dollar General saw comparable sales growth driven primarily by increased traffic, while Dollar Tree posted ticket-driven gains – supported by the discretionary categories it has expanded through its Multi-Price 3.0 strategy. As consumer hesitancy deepened through the spring, that shift likely left Dollar Tree's traffic more vulnerable to pullback. Still, given the chain’s continued expansion and a difficult year-over-year comparison, a same-store visit dip of just a few percentage points suggests that underlying demand remains resilient.
Dollar General's hyper-local footprint has also long been a structural strength – one that likely became even more valuable in the spring 2026 environment. Gas prices climbed sharply in March, pushing the national average above $4 per gallon by early April for the first time in four years. With 12.4% of Dollar General visits originating from within half a mile of a store, compared to 7.3% for Dollar Tree, the chain was particularly well positioned to capture quick, low-drive-distance trips at a time when consumers were watching their fuel budgets.
Still, temporary headwinds aside, Dollar Tree’s stronger draw among families with children and the coveted Gen Z cohort could become a meaningful advantage as consumer conditions improve.
Dollar Tree and Dollar General have similar exposure to younger consumers and households with children across their potential trade areas, but Dollar Tree appears to do a better job converting that potential audience into actual visits. Its captured market – reflecting the parts of its trade area actually generating the most visits – is on par with or slightly over-indexes for both groups compared to its potential market, while Dollar General under-indexes.
That gap carries strategic implications for both chains. Dollar Tree’s expanded offerings in seasonal décor, party supplies, toys, and home goods may be resonating with these audiences. And though this discretionary tilt may leave traffic more exposed when budgets tighten, it also positions Dollar Tree well to capture occasion-driven and family-oriented spending as spending rebounds.
For Dollar General, meanwhile, under-indexing with those same groups highlights a longer-term opportunity to broaden its appeal among younger consumers – and drive incremental growth in the process.
The spring slowdown underscores that value retail is not immune to broader consumer pressure – and that not all dollar chains are exposed to that pressure in the same way. Dollar General's dense, hyper-local footprint gives it an edge when shoppers are watching basket size and driving costs. Dollar Tree's discretionary leaning, meanwhile, makes it more vulnerable in the near term – but its stronger pull among younger consumers and families suggests it is building relevance with audiences that could matter more in the next spending cycle.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Five Below has thrived in recent years, riding strong demand for affordable splurges. But how did the chain hold up in early 2026, with rising gas prices and sinking consumer sentiment squeezing discretionary spending?
Five Below has continued expanding its footprint over the past year, entering the Pacific Northwest for the first time and ending January 2026 with 1,921 stores across 46 states – a net increase of 150 stores compared to early 2025.
This growth helped drive a 25.9% YoY jump in chainwide visits in Q1 2026. But same-store visits also sustained double-digit growth throughout the quarter and into April – showing that Five Below is meaningfully growing its audience at existing locations even as it opens new ones at a rapid clip. That’s a rare combination at a moment when much of retail is grappling with consumer pullback.
Five Below's same-store momentum appears closely tied to its revamped merchandising strategy. Since taking the helm in December 2024, CEO Winnie Park has integrated the company’s “Five Beyond” items – priced at $7, $10, $15, and above – throughout the main store floor. Park has also pushed sharper, more trend-focused merchandising and a marketing approach built around social discovery and creator-led engagement.
And these steps appear to be attracting higher-earning shoppers. Captured market data shows that the median household income of Five Below’s visitor base rose from $78.5K in 2025 to $80.3K in 2026 – a meaningful uptick after several years of marginal declines.
To be sure, a similar push into higher-price discretionary categories appears to have weighed on some other discount retailers, such as Dollar Tree, this spring. But Five Below has always been a discretionary-first destination – and unlike Dollar Tree, whose shoppers can shift more of their trips to Dollar General as they prioritize basics, Five Below's affordable-splurge appeal isn't easily replicated elsewhere in the value aisle.
Five Below's audience is also more distinctly local than other discretionary retail chains – an advantage as rising gas prices push consumers to rethink longer drives. Though not as hyper-local as traditional dollar stores, Five Below still pulls disproportionately from nearby neighborhoods: in early 2026, 53.8% of visits came from within five miles, compared with 47.9% for discretionary chains more broadly. That local footprint, paired with attainable price points, makes Five Below a natural choice for consumers eager to splurge on something fun even as they grow more selective about discretionary trips.
Five Below's Q1 2026 performance reflects a chain firing on multiple cylinders – expanding its footprint, lifting traffic at existing stores, broadening its demographic reach, and benefiting from a convenient presence as gas prices weigh on longer trips. In an environment marked by growing consumer caution, that breadth of momentum positions Five Below to keep outperforming through the rest of 2026.
For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
During periods of economic uncertainty and tighter consumer spending, demand for smaller indulgences often remains resilient. In beauty, this phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “lipstick effect” – the idea that consumers continue seeking affordable products that provide a sense of comfort, self-care, or reward even as discretionary budgets tighten.
Still, even this resilience doesn’t allow beauty chains to rest on their laurels. In 2025, both Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works introduced new corporate strategies aimed at driving their next phase of growth – but from very different starting points. Ulta is evolving from a position of relative strength, leaning into loyalty, discovery, and brand partnerships to sustain momentum. Bath & Body Works, meanwhile, is navigating a more uneven traffic recovery as it works to reduce its reliance on promotional peaks and expand engagement across digital and alternative channels.
How are those efforts resonating with consumers? And how are expanding e-commerce options impacting brick-and-mortar beauty visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty’s has been faring well in recent months, with positive same-store and overall traffic increasing year-over-year (YoY) in nine of the last twelve months.
That consistency may reflect the impact of Ulta Beauty Unleashed – the company’s strategy aimed at deepening customer engagement and refining in-store execution, launched just over a year ago. The initiative has helped fuel continued growth in Ulta’s loyalty ecosystem, which now boasts more than 46 million members, while also creating a flywheel effect in which greater customer participation supports Ulta’s personalization capabilities that, in turn, help drive further engagement.
Ulta’s strong loyalty infrastructure also plays a role in the retailer’s ability to offer an innovative product assortment through brand-building – another pillar of the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy. This approach helps Ulta sustain a sense of discovery and newness within the store environment, driving consistent traffic while also creating opportunities for outsized visit spikes. This dynamic was evident in February 2026, when the launch of the Rare Beauty partnership drove record-breaking demand and contributed to a 10.3% increase in YoY visits to the chain – marking Ulta’s largest monthly traffic gain of the past twelve months.
Bath & Body Works, on the other hand, has been more reliant on promotion-driven peaks – something its leadership has been candid about since announcing its new Consumer First Formula.
Double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July and October 2025 as well as in January 2026 aligned with periods of heightened promotional activity – including the retailer’s Semi-Annual Sales. But traffic moderated between those peaks, highlighting what management believes to be an overreliance on promotional cadences.
As Bath & Body Works CEO Daniel Heaf put it “transformations of this scale take time.” The foot traffic data suggests that the brand may still be facing near-term headwinds, with monthly YoY traffic trending down since February 2026 – although the dips may also indicate that a portion of in-store demand is shifting to e-commerce and alternate sales channels.
Bath & Body Works recently opened a new Amazon storefront, refreshed its mobile app, and lowered its free-shipping threshold, moves aimed at capturing digital demand and promoting discovery – particularly among younger consumers. And the company’s launch into campus bookstores reflects a similar effort to leverage alternative distribution channels to extend the brand’s reach and build relevance with younger consumers. These digital and alternative retail investments are designed to build longer-term engagement that could eventually translate into sustained growth for the chain.
But even as Ulta and Bath & Body Works lean into digital and alternative channels, the brands are continuing to invest in their owned stores – and analyzing shifts in visit length for the two chains offers further insight into the role stores continue to play within each brand’s broader transformation strategy.
A Q1 comparison reveals that since 2023, more than 37% of visits to Ulta lasted over 30 minutes. The retailer has been rolling out an updated store format since 2022 – designed to promote exploration with a more intuitive category-based layout. And investments in the store experience have continued with ongoing Beauty Bar activations and events, K-Beauty World shop-in-shops, and the recent Wellness by Ulta Beauty pilot, all likely contributors to a more discovery-driven customer experience and longer dwell times.
Bath & Body Works, while seeing a smaller share of visits exceeding the 30-minute mark than Ulta, posted a significant increase in visits of that length between Q1 2025 (32.5%) and Q1 2026 (34.1%). This indicates that the Gingham+ redesign introduced in 2025 – featuring scent bars, dedicated product testing zones, and a more immersive merchandising approach – may be influencing the amount of time shoppers spend in-store.
While digital and nontraditional retail channels have become critical components of modern beauty retail strategy, the in-store experience remains a key driver of customer engagement – whether a retailer is navigating a period of transformation or working to sustain long-term growth.
The data suggests that beauty retail’s next phase of growth will depend on more than category resilience alone. Both Bath & Body Works and Ulta Beauty are investing in new ways to engage consumers – from loyalty ecosystems and digital expansion to immersive store experiences designed to encourage discovery. And while their strategies differ, both underscore a broader industry reality: even in an increasingly omnichannel environment, physical stores remain central to how beauty brands build engagement and long-term consumer loyalty.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
January and February saw a modest year-over-year (YoY) uptick in visits to the DICK’s Sporting Goods banner, while March traffic softened. However, March 2026’s visit decline appears at least partially calendar-driven – the month had one fewer Saturday than the previous year – and traffic rebounded to near-flat levels in April.
Gap entered 2026 with momentum, but foot traffic softened in both March and April – perhaps reflecting the calendar shift as well as broader consumer caution and its impact on discretionary spending. Still, the traffic slowdown may be a temporary setback. Gap continues to expand into apparel-adjacent retail categories such as beauty and accessories – with new product launches in the months ahead that could help reinvigorate visits.
Meanwhile, lululemon’s North American business continues to face headwinds, as domestic performance lags behind stronger international results. Yet, the company – still searching for a new CEO – is guiding for a turnaround in the second half of 2026. Planned initiatives include new product introductions, reduced reliance on markdowns, and ongoing store expansion. Whether visit trends begin to reflect that anticipated recovery will be closely watched as the year unfolds.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first four months of 2026 have been challenging for department stores, as consumer caution and rising gas prices weigh on discretionary spending. But visit data reveals a clear divide between chains gaining traction and those continuing to lose ground – offering a window into what’s working in today’s environment.
Looking at quarterly performance, Midwestern chain Von Maur stood apart from the field in Q1 2026, posting an 8.7% increase in overall visits and a 5.9% gain in average visits per location – the strongest performance in the segment on both measures.
Von Maur’s appeal can be attributed in part to a tightly controlled model that prioritizes service, brand curation, and pricing consistency over scale and promotions. And as a regional favorite in the Midwest, the brand benefits from a well-established customer base.
Other players with similar positioning also showed relative strength in Q1. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regional favorite Boscov’s outperformed several larger national chains, while Nordstrom saw average visits per location increase 1.6% year over year – suggesting continued traction for curation-led formats. Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also held steady, reinforcing the resilience of higher-end department stores even as Saks navigates bankruptcy proceedings.
Still, monthly data highlights just how exposed the department store segment is to discretionary, time-rich shopping trips, which tend to concentrate on weekends – and which consumers may be pulling back on in 2026.
In Q1 2026, Saturdays accounted for more than a quarter (25.4%) of department store visits, well above both the 17.4% average for non-discretionary brick-and-mortar retailers and the 21.6% average for discretionary chains. As a result, March 2026 – which had one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – saw visits soften across the board.
April, however, painted a more encouraging picture. With the calendar normalized, several chains returned to flat or positive year-over-year same-store visit trends. Von Maur led once again with an 8.5% increase, while Nordstrom (+0.9%) and Bloomingdale’s (+1.7%) also posted gains. Macy’s, as it advances its Bold New Chapter strategy, saw its year-over-year visit gap narrow to 2.4% in April. As the chain continues to close underperforming locations and invest in its Reimagine 125 cohort, performance may improve further in the months ahead.
Department store performance in Q1 2026 reflected today’s increasingly bifurcated landscape, where premium, experience-driven retailers continue to draw shoppers even amid broader caution, while mid-market chains remain more exposed to macro pressure. Even in a constrained environment, consumers are still willing to show up for brands that offer a clear, compelling experience – but that bar is rising, making it harder for less differentiated players to keep up.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
The dining industry showcased its agility over the past couple of years as it rapidly adapted to shifts in consumer preference brought on by COVID and rising prices. And with a new year around the corner, the pace of change shows no signs of slowing down.
This white paper harnesses location analytics, including visitation patterns, demographic data, and psychographic insights, to explore the trends that will shape the dining space in 2024. Which dining segments are likely to pull ahead of the pack? How are chains responding to changes in visitor behavior? And where are brands driving dining foot traffic by taking advantage of a new advertising possibility? Read on to find out how dining leaders can tap into emerging trends to stay ahead of the competition in 2024.
Comparing quarterly visits in 2023 and 2022 highlights the impact of the ongoing economic headwinds on the dining industry. The year started off strong, with year-over-year (YoY) dining visits up overall in Q1 2023 – perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted muted Q1 2022. And while overall dining growth stalled in Q2 2023, several segments – including QSR, Fast Casual, and Coffee – continued posting YoY visit increases, likely bolstered by consumers trading down from pricier full-service concepts.
Foot traffic slowed significantly in Q3 2023 as inflation and tighter consumer budgets constrained discretionary spending. Overall dining visits fell 2.4% YoY, and full-service restaurants – with their relatively high price point compared to other dining segments – seemed to be particularly impacted by the wider economic outlook. But the data also revealed some bright spots: Fast Casual still succeeded in maintaining positive YoY visit numbers and Coffee saw its Q3 visit grow an impressive 5.4% YoY. As the return to office continues, a pre-work coffee run or lunchtime foray to a fast-casual chain may continue propelling the two segments forward.
Restaurant visitation patterns have evolved over the past few years. Although an 8 PM seating was once the most coveted slot at fine-dining restaurants, recent visitation data suggests that sitting down to dinner earlier is rising in popularity.
But among the QSR segment, the opposite trend is emerging, with late-night visits rising. Analyzing hourly foot traffic to several major QSR chains reveals that the share of visits between 9 PM and 12 AM increased significantly between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023. Even Taco Bell – already known for its popularity among the late-night crowd – saw a substantial increase in late-night visits YoY – from 15.4% to 20.3%.
Who is driving the late night visit surge? One reason restaurants have been expanding their opening hours is to capture more Gen-Z diners, who tend to seek out nighttime dining options. But location intelligence reveals that younger millennials are also taking advantage of the later QSR closing times.
An analysis of the captured market for trade areas of top locations within one of Taco Bell’s major markets – the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan area – reveals a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) increase in “Singles & Starters.” The “Singles & Starters” segment is defined by Experian: Mosaic as young singles and starter families living in cities who are typically between 25 and 30 years old. As consumers continue to prioritize experiential entertainment and going out with friends, late-night dining may continue to see increased interest from young city-dwellers.
Millennials and Gen-Z consumers aren’t only heading to their favorite fast food joint for a late-night bite – these audience segments are also helping drive visits on the weekends. Smoothie King is one chain feeling the benefits of young, health-conscious consumers.
The chain, which opened in New Orleans, LA, in 1973 as a health food store, has since grown to over 1,100 locations nationwide and is currently expanding, focusing on the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA. The area’s Smoothie King venues have seen strong visitation patterns, particularly on the weekends – weekend visits were up 3.4% YoY in Q3 2023. The smoothie brand’s trade areas in the greater Dallas region is also seeing a YoY increase in weekend visits from “Young Professionals” – defined by the Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset as “well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs.”
While some dining chains are appealing to the late-night or weekend crowd, others are driving visits by appealing to sports lovers. How have recent rule changes around student athletes changed the restaurant game, and how can college football teams drive business in their hometowns?
College sports have long been a major moneymaker, with top-tier teams raking in billions of dollars annually. And as of 2021, college athletes can enjoy a piece of the significant fan following of college sports thanks to the change in the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules, which now allows student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Since then, multiple restaurants have jumped on the opportunity to partner with student athletes, some of whom have millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters have all signed college athletes to various brand deals.
How can brands ensure they partner with athletes their customers will want to engage with? Analyzing a chain’s audience by looking at the interests of residents in a given chain’s trade area can reveal which type of athlete will be the most attractive to each brand’s customer base. For example, data from Spatial.ai: Followgraph provides insight into the social media activity of consumers in a given trade area and can highlight desirable partnerships.
Examining the trade areas of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters, for instance, reveals that Sweetgreen’s visitors tended to have the largest share of Women’s Soccer followers. Conversely, Sweetgreen’s trade area had lower-than-average shares of College Football Fans or College Basketball Fans, while residents of the trade areas of the other three chains showed greater-than-average interest in these sports. Leveraging location intelligence can help companies choose brand deals that their customers resonate with and find the ideal athletes to represent the chain.
Finding the right college athlete partnership is one way for dining brands to appeal to college sports enthusiasts. But dining chains and venues located near major college stadiums also benefit from the popularity of their local team by enjoying a major game day visit boost.
One of the country’s most popular college football teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes, can draw millions of TV viewers, and its stadium has a capacity of 102,780 – one of the largest stadiums in the country. And while tailgating is a popular activity for Buckeyes fans, nearby restaurants are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the college football craze. Panera experienced a 235.3% increase on game days as compared to a typical day, Domino’s Pizza visits grew by 283.3%, and Tommy’s Pizza, a local pie shop, saw its visits jump by a whopping 600.9%.
This influx in diners also causes a major shift in game day visitor demographics, as revealed by changes in visitors at dining venues located near stadiums of two of the nation’s best college football teams – the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss Rebels. Based on Spatial.ai: Personalive data for the captured market of these dining venues, game day visitors tended to come from “Ultra Wealthy Families” when compared to visitors during a typical non-game day in September or October.
The analysis indicates that popular sporting events create a unique opportunity for restaurants near college stadiums to attract high-income customers game day after game day, year after year.
While some spend game day tailgating or visiting a college restaurant, others hold a viewing party – with a six-foot submarine. And the sub’s popularity extends beyond Superbowl Sundays. Sandwich chains including Jersey Mike’s, Firehouse Subs, Jimmy John’s, and Subway (recently purchased by the same company that owns Jimmy John’s) have seen sustained YoY increases in visits and visits per venue in the first three quarters of 2023.
Some of the growth to these chains may be related to their affordability, a draw at all times but especially during a period marked by consumer uncertainty and rising food costs. And subway leaders seem to be seizing the moment and striking while the iron is hot – Jersey Mike’s opened 350 stores in 2023 and still saw its YoY visits per venue grow by 6.6%. And Subway reported ten consecutive quarters of positive sales, a promising sign for its new owner.
The love for a healthy, affordable sandwich extends across all income levels, with all four chains seeing a range in their visitors' median household income (HHI). Out of the four chains analyzed, Jersey Mike’s – which has long prioritized a suburban, middle-income customer – had the highest trade area median household income of the four chains at $77.3K/year. Subway, known for its affordability, had the lowest, with $62.9K/year. The variance in median HHI combined with the strong foot traffic growth shows that when it comes to sandwiches, there’s something for everyone.
Persistent inflation and declining consumer sentiment may pose serious challenges for the dining space, but emerging trends are helping boost some restaurants. Customers seeking out a late-night bite drive visits to QSR chains, and health-conscious diners are boosting foot traffic to smoothie bars and sandwich shops. Meanwhile, sports sponsorships and game-day restaurant visits can provide a boost to dining businesses that take advantage of these opportunities.
