Hot on the heels of the burrito’s emergence as America’s favorite dish in 2022 – edging out even the iconic cheeseburger – spicy potato tacos rocked Grubhub’s list of 2023’s top five spicy food orders. 

So with the new year upon us, we dove into the data to check in with three steadily-expanding taco chains that are likely to continue making waves this year: Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero. Each of the three chains fills a somewhat different niche, and each of them is growing – showing that despite the challenges facing the restaurant industry, there’s a hot market for taco chains that hit the sweet spot with the right food and ambiance.

Bartaco and Condado Tacos on the Rise

Bartaco, the upscale eatery known for its beach-like vibe, specialty cocktails, and eclectic street food menu, is a taco restaurant with a twist. The diverse menu includes everything from falafel tacos to glazed pork belly rice bowls. And while guac and chips are on offer, hungry diners can also indulge in kale caesar salad or Korean-style kimchi. Over the past several years, Bartaco has expanded its fleet – and the restaurant now boasts some 29 locations across 12 states (and Washington, D.C).

Condado Tacos is another popular restaurant that has grown its footprint in recent years. The “come as you are” casual-dining chain known for its funky art decor now features some 49 locations across 10 states – 20 of them in Ohio. And with plans to open 90-100 restaurants by 2026, the chain is on a roll. Customers can build their own tacos with fillings like Thai Chili Tofu or Tequila-Lime Steak, or choose one of the menu’s tempting suggestions. And like Bartaco, Condado Tacos offers a variety of cocktails – including seasonal choices like the Harvest Pear Marg.

And location intelligence shows that the expansion of both chains is meeting growing demand. Visits to Bartaco and Condado Tacos have risen steadily over the past two years, reaching a respective 52.2% and 52.9% growth in Q4 2023 relative to Q1 2022.

El Vaquero: A Cinco de Mayo Fav

Ohio is also home to El Vaquero – a Mexican chain with 18 locations in the Buckeye State and two more in Michigan. El Vaquero, which has also expanded over the past several years, saw foot traffic rise 4.8% in Q4 2023 compared to the equivalent period of 2022. And with a menu that includes everything from nachos to huevos con chorizo, it’s no wonder the chain has emerged as a local favorite.

Like Bartaco and Condado Tacos, El Vaquero has a rich cocktail menu, as well as a varied selection of wines and beers. And while the chain’s offerings certainly draw crowds throughout the year, El Vaquero really goes crazy on Cinco de Mayo, the May 5th commemoration of Mexico's victory over Napoleon in 1862. El Vaquero marks the occasion with a five-day special menu and an all-day happy hour on Cinco de Mayo itself. And on May 5th, 2023, El Vaquero experienced its busiest day of the year by far, drawing a remarkable 200.2% more visitors than it did, on average, during April and May 2023.

Singles and Tacos for Dinner

Drilling down into the data for Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero shows that despite their differences, the three chains experience similar hourly visitation patterns. All three are busiest in the evenings – but while El Vaquero and Condado Tacos peak between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM, Bartaco peaks somewhat later, between 7:00 PM and 9:00 PM. Bartaco also stays busier into the 9:00 PM – 10:00 PM time slot.

‍

Bartaco’s, Condado Tacos’, and El Vaquero’s evening draw may be due, in part, to the special appeal they hold for singles: The captured markets of all three chains feature significant shares of one-person households – and in the case of Bartaco and Condado Tacos, smaller concentrations of families with children. (For El Vaquero, the proportion of households with children is on par with that of single-person households). Of the three, the more upscale Bartaco boasts the highest share of single-person households – and the lowest share of parental ones – perhaps explaining its later visit peak and greater late-night engagement.

Key Takeaways

Mexican food has arisen as a preferred cuisine for many consumers. And even in today’s challenging economic environment, brands that can offer a winning combination of good food, nice cocktails, and a welcoming atmosphere are poised to thrive. How will Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero continue to fare in the new year? And what lies in store for the wider taco restaurant space in the months to come?

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out. 

‍

High food-away-from-home prices weighed on the dining sector in 2023. But affordable indulgences were the name of the game – and for plenty of people, their daily caffeine fix remained non-negotiable. 

So with the new year gathering steam, we dove into the data to explore consumer trends impacting Starbucks and Dunkin’ in 2023. What were the biggest days of the year for the two chains? And who were the java enthusiasts driving visits to the two chains last year?

1. National Donut Day is Coming Back

The first Friday of every June is National Donut Day, an event first kicked off by the Salvation Army in the 1930’s to honor folks that served doughnuts to soldiers during the First World War. Every year, Dunkin’ marks the occasion with – you guessed it – free doughnuts, and this year wasn’t any different. On June 2, 2023, Dunkin’ fans were invited to snag a delicious free treat with the purchase of any beverage, and customers turned out in droves. 

The day turned out to be the busiest one of the year, with Dunkin’ locations seeing a 49.4% increase in foot traffic compared to the chain’s 2023 daily average. And after a couple of years when the occasion garnered somewhat less turnout, National Donut Day appears to be very much on track to regain its pre-COVID glory (The last time National Donut Day was the busiest day of the year was in 2019). Friends, it seems, really don't let friends miss out on free doughnuts. 

2. Holiday Cheer, Black Friday, and … Pumpkin Spice, Of Course!

Like many restaurant and coffee chains, Starbucks tends to be busiest on Saturdays. And in 2023, the popular coffee chain drew its biggest crowds on November 4th – the first Saturday after the launch of the eagerly-anticipated holiday menu. With mouth-watering offerings like Chestnut Praline Latte and Iced Gingerbread Oatmeal Chai, it’s no wonder customers can’t wait to indulge – especially when they can top off their drink with a Snowman Cookie or a Peppermint Brownie Cake Pop. (Luckily, the menu launch comes before those pesky new year’s resolutions.)

Starbucks’ second-busiest day of the year in 2023 was Black Friday (November 24th), as shoppers sought a quick way to fuel up or get a caffeine boost while they hit the stores. And the chain’s third-busiest day of the year was August 26th – the first Saturday after the annual release of Starbucks’ calendar-owning Pumpkin Spice Latte, a tradition that never fails to drive excitement – and foot traffic.

3. Reaching Diverse Crowds Year-Round

But who were the customers that fueled Starbucks’ and Dunkin’s foot traffic in 2023? Analyzing the two chains’ captured markets with psychographics from Spatial.ai shows that while each of them attracted a somewhat different audience, they both drew diverse crowds throughout the year. 

Starbucks, which features a cozy ambiance that encourages people to stay a while, has emerged as a popular WFH spot – and is more likely than Dunkin’ to be frequented by Young Professionals. The doughnut leader, on the other hand, boasts a to-go vibe, and draws greater shares of Suburban Boomers and Rural High-Income customers. Still, the data shows that coffee consumption is far from a zero-sum game, and in 2023, both chains attracted healthy shares of each of the analyzed segments. 

4. A Regional Coffee Game

In addition, while Starbucks customers tend to hail from more affluent areas than Dunkin’ fans, the median household income (HHI) of each chain’s customer base varied considerably by region last year – as did the extent of the HHI gap between the two chains. 

Starbucks’ most affluent customer base was in New England, where the median HHI of its captured market stood at $90.7K – a significant 19.2% higher than that of Dunkin’s ($75.8K). But in the Pacific region, including California, Dunkin’s captured market had a median HHI of $83.2K, just 2.1% lower than that of Starbucks. 

Key Takeaways

“Coffee, coffee, coffee!” may be a bit from Gilmore Girls, but it’s also a way of life for millions of Americans. And location data shows that in 2023, there was plenty of love to go around for coffee leaders like Starbucks and Dunkin’. 

How will National Donut Day and Starbucks’ holiday menu play out in 2024? And what does the new year have in store for the coffee space more generally? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out. 

‍

In the spring of 2023, the surgeon general released an alarming report about the epidemic of loneliness in the US, which has negative implications on our physical, social, and emotional health such as “a 29% increased risk of heart disease, a 32% increased risk of stroke, and a 50% increased risk of developing dementia for older adults. Additionally, lacking social connection increases risk of premature death by more than 60%.”  Among his six recommendations to combat this, the number one idea was to “Strengthen Social Infrastructure: Connections are not just influenced by individual interactions, but by the physical elements of a community (parks, libraries, playgrounds) and the programs and policies in place. To strengthen social infrastructure, communities must design environments that promote connection, establish and scale community connection programs, and invest in institutions that bring people together.”  We’ve written at length about how malls are becoming one of the old-but-new gathering places for Gen Z and how pickleball is a new craze that has been bringing people together.  Let’s take a look now at how some parks and recreation centers serve their communities as well as the vision for one mall redeveloper, who held town halls and numerous local meetings in order to understand the needs of the community.

First up is Brooklyn Bridge Park.  This 85- acre park resides on the Brooklyn side of the East River in New York City. It has revitalized 1.3 miles of Brooklyn’s post-industrial waterfront.  Among its many offerings are playgrounds, athletic fields, a roller-skating rink, fitness equipment, kayak and canoe launch sites, and basketball, bocce, handball, and beach volleyball courts.

There’s certainly a seasonal element to park visitation, with visits increasing into the spring and peaking in the summer.

Late afternoon into the evening tends to be when most people visit the park.

It appears most visitors enjoy their park outing with hamburgers, some shopping, pizza, and ice cream with Shake Shack the top destination before and after visiting.  

While Educated Urbanites and Young Urban Singles make up the majority of segments, the park attracts a broad range of additional segments, ranging from Ultra Wealthy Families to Urban Low Income. Another fun fact about this park is that it is financially self-sustaining, due to the fact that 10% of the parkland was set aside for development, which sustains 90% of the park’s operating budget.

Speaking of Brooklyn, we now turn our attention to a Dallas-based developer, Peter Brodsky, who originally hails from Brooklyn. He purchased the Redbird Mall in South Dallas in 2015 and incorporated much community feedback to understand what the residents in the area wanted, such as jobs, health care, grocers, restaurants, and a Starbucks. It’s currently under development as The Shops at RedBird, and incorporating trends we’ve highlighted in previous Anchor articles, such as mixed-use, with a new apartment complex on the grounds of an ex-parking lot; a Courtyard Marriott hotel to follow; two health care providers--Parkland and UT Southwestern-- taking over Dillard’s and Sears further reinforcing our bullishness on malls and healthcare; and on the second floor a call center operator that employs two thousand workers with plans for more. Below, we show a birds-eye view plan for this exciting new development. Plus, there is a one-acre lawn for community events.

Like almost all malls, these shops saw a dip during the pandemic, but since then traffic has perked up.

When we look at year-over-year change from the surrounding zip codes, we see a fair amount of growth coming from the south and the farther western direction.  

Using Jan 1, 2023 as a baseline, the overall shopping center as well as some of the major tenants like Starbucks, Burlington, and Foot Locker show a positive trend.

In fact, among all the Starbucks stores that Placer tracks, this Starbucks location at Redbird ranks #5 in traffic for the year 2023.

In more exciting news, there are also plans for a Tom Thumb grocery to open up at this shopping center.  We will keep an eye on this development for sure as more tenants and office/residence/hospitality opens up.

The past four years have each taken on their own identities for consumers, retailers, and commercial real estate companies. 2020 was obviously the pandemic year, where consumers had to quickly change behaviors and retailers were forced to make drastic changes in their business models to keep up. With such drastic changes in 2020, 2021 became a year where many retailers and commercial real estate companies made structural changes in their operating models, adopting new store sizes or formats or evolving their tenant mix. 2022 got off to a rocky start with COVID variants and inflationary pressures, but eventually, we saw a reopening that led to a shift away from physical goods to experiences that has largely continued through today. And while inflation defined much of 2023, we also think consumers' focus on events, value, and uniqueness also explains consumer behavior.
Heading into the year, there was hope that 2024 would be our first “normal” year in some time, but three weeks in, we’re already seeing evidence that weather may be end up being a more pronounced story. Storms across the Midwest (for the week ending Jan. 15) and Southeast (during the week ended Jan. 22) have already had a significant impact on visitation trends across many retail categories. Below, we’ve used data from Placer’s Industry Trends report to examine year-over-year visit trends for chains across all major retail categories to start the year. 

For the week ended Jan. 8, visits decreased -8.6% nationwide across all categories and a relatively small variance range across states (ranging from double-digit declines across much of the Northeast to low-single-digit decline in the upper Midwest).

We start to see the impact of the snowstorms that hit the Midwest U.S. during the week ended Jan. 15, with Nebraska and Iowa seeing an almost 30% decrease in visitors year-over-year, and many other surrounding states seeing a 20% decrease in visits.

For the week ended Jan. 22, the Southeast U.S. was more heavily impacted, including a -32% decrease in retail visits in Tennessee, a -22% decline in Mississippi, and mid-to-high teens declines in Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, and West Virginia. Texas saw a -14% decline in visits that week.

Which categories were hit hardest by these weather trends? Consumer electronics–which had a strong Black Friday and solid holiday period (which we discuss in the economics section below)–saw mid-to-high teen declines in visits throughout January, although the category is lapping some tougher comparisons with many retailers shedding excess inventory in the year ago period (this is also true for office supplies). After that, we see the greatest impact in a few more weather-sensitive categories like home improvement (mid-teens declines in visits) and restaurants (the QSR/Fast Casual and full-service restaurant categories both saw double-digit declines in visits as the month progressed).

We expect weather will be a key topic as retailers and restaurants begin to report their full-year 2023 results and provide 2024 outlooks over the next month. Historically, inclement weather is something that doesn’t have a major impact on consumer demand for products and services (it usually just delays these purchases), but it is possible that those chains that have outsized exposure to the affected regions may temper their expectations for the year.

CVS and Walgreens are the two leading brick-and-mortar pharmacy chains, controlling together over 40% of the U.S. prescription drug market. And although the companies have been rightsizing their physical footprint over the past couple of years, CVS and Walgreens together still operate over 18,000 locations throughout the country. 

And while the two chains may sometimes appear interchangeable, diving into the demographic differences between CVS and Walgreens’ trade areas indicates that each brand serves a slightly different audience. 

Differences in Visitor Income 

A chain’s potential market looks at the Census Block Groups – CBGs – where visitors to a chain come from, weighted according to the population of each CBG. And since both CVS and Walgreens operate in all 50 states and often have locations in the same town or city, the makeup of the two chains’ potential market trade area is remarkably similar – indicating that both chains have the potential to reach the same types of households. 

But diving into the captured market (the trade area of each chain weighted according to the actual number of visits from each CBG) reveals a major difference in trade area median household income (HHI). Although both chains have the potential to attract visitors with a median HHI of around $70.0K, visitors to CVS come from CBGs with a median HHI of $76K – meaning that visitors to CVS tend to come from the more affluent neighborhoods within CVS’s potential trade area. Walgreens visitors, on the other hand, come from CBGs with a median HHI of $67.5K, which is lower than the median HHI in the brand’s potential market, and indicates that Walgreens visitors tend to come from the less affluent neighborhood within the company’s trade area.  

CVS Attracts Larger Households, While Walgreens Serves More Singles 

The two pharmacy leaders also seem to attract different shares of singles and families, although the differences are not as pronounced as the differences in median HHI. 

CVS and Walgreens have equal shares of one-person & non-family households in their trade areas, but the share of this segment in Walgreens’ captured market is slightly larger than in CVS’ captured market. Still, for both brands, one-person and non-family households are slightly underrepresented in the captured market relative to the potential market, indicating that singles across the board are perhaps slightly less likely to visit brick-and-mortar pharmacy chains. 

On the other hand, both CVS and Walgreens had more families (households with four or more children) in their captured market than in their potential market – although the share of this segment in CVS’ captured market was slightly higher than in Walgreens’.

CVS Appeals to Families

CVS’ relative popularity with family segments also comes through when looking at the psychographic makeup of its trade area. When compared to Walgreens, CVS’s captured market included larger shares of three out of four family-oriented segments analyzed by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset – Ultra Wealthy Families, Wealthy Suburban Families, and Near-Urban Diverse Families. Walgreens’ captured market did include larger shares of Upper Suburban Diverse Families, but the difference was minimal – 9.8% for Walgreens compared to 9.5% for CVS. 

Differences and Overlaps between CVS and Walgreens Visitors  

CVS and Walgreens carry a very similar product selection, and the two chains’ nearly identical potential trade area makeup indicates that both brands’ locations have the potential to reach the same types of customers. But diving into CVS and Walgreens’ captured market reveals some differences between the two chains’ audiences – CVS tends to attract more affluent visitors, while Walgreens seems slightly more popular among singles. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog. 

‍

From high prices to changing workplace attire (yes, soft pants are most definitely still a thing) – the fashion industry faced plenty of headwinds in 2023. But some segments, like off-price and thrift stores, reaped the benefits of trading down by consumers. And the category as a whole enjoyed a robust holiday season, helping to drive record holiday sales. 

So with 2024 getting underway, we dove into the data to explore the evolving relationship between three major segments that comprise the fashion industry: non-off-price apparel chains, off-price retailers (such as T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington), and thrift shops.* Which segment drew the most foot traffic in 2023? And how have the demographic profiles of visitors to the three sub-categories shifted in recent years?  

*Analysis includes major thrift shop chains, including Goodwill, the Salvation Army, Buffalo Exchange, Plato’s Closet, and others.

Off-Price and Thrift Stores Gain Market Share

Last year saw an acceleration of the redistribution of foot traffic between non-off-price apparel retailers, off-price apparel chains, and thrift shops – a trend which began even before COVID. Back in 2017, non-off-price apparel stores accounted for just over 50% of visits to these three segments – but in the years since, the sub-category’s visit share dwindled to 38.9%. Over the same period, off–price-apparel chains grew their visit share by 8.1 percentage points, from 39.3% to 47.4%, and the share of visits to thrift shops increased by 3.2%.

Apparel Affluence Gap Persists

Unsurprisingly, non-off-price apparel chains have traditionally attracted more affluent consumers than either off-price retailers or thrift stores. And throughout the analyzed period, the captured market of non-off-price apparel retailers continued to feature a median household income (HHI) that was significantly higher than the nationwide baseline, while the captured markets of off-price chains and thrift stores featured median HHIs below the nationwide median. 

But the three segments were impacted differently by shifts in consumer behavior in the wake of the pandemic. In early 2020, all three sub-categories experienced significant dips in the affluence of their captured markets. But while thrift shops saw an immediate HHI rebound, non-off-price apparel chains – and even more so off-price retailers – have yet to see the affluence of their visitor bases return to 2019 levels. 

Thrifting is (Disproportionately) for Singles

Foot traffic data also reveals an interesting divide in the household composition of visitors to the three segments: While the income profiles of off-price apparel shoppers are more akin to those of thrifters, their household composition is closer to that of visitors to non-off-price apparel stores. 

The potential markets of all three categories, for example, featured similar shares of one-person households in 2023. But their captured markets were quite different – with singles over-represented for thrift stores, and under-represented for off-price and non-off-price apparel stores. This indicates that thrifters hail disproportionately from Census Block Groups (CBGs) that feature higher-than-average shares of one-person households. And visitors to off-price and non-off-price retailers come from the CBGs within the trade areas of these chains that feature smaller-than-expected concentrations of one-person households. Given the special appeal thrift shops carry for demographics like college students, it may come as no surprise that singles are among their best customers. 

For families with children, on the other hand, more traditional apparel retailers hold sway: Visitors to off-price and non-off-price apparel stores were more likely to come from areas with higher concentrations of families with children in 2023, while thrifters were more likely to come from areas with smaller ones. 

Key Takeaways

Economic headwinds and evolving consumer preferences have left their mark on the shifting  relationship between different sub-categories within the fashion industry. But what does 2024 have in store for the sector? Will cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence lead to an increase in visit share for non-off-price favorites? And will more parental households make the pivot to thrift stores? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.