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The athletic apparel and sporting goods landscape has faced various headwinds throughout 2025 – from shifting consumer spending patterns to challenging macroeconomic conditions. Against this backdrop, an AI-powered analysis of Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and lululemon highlights where each brand may find momentum in 2026.
DICK’s delivered a solid fiscal Q3, and the most recent year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic data indicates that stability carried into the following months. The company continues to work through the integration of Foot Locker – streamlining inventory and refining operations – while simultaneously expanding its House of Sport and Field House concepts. Investment in these experiential formats underscores a strategic commitment to immersive retail and broader merchandise diversification to drive long-term growth.
Academy Sports + Outdoors delivered positive top-line growth and profitability in fiscal Q3, despite a modest decline in comparable sales. And while management noted record Black Friday performance, cooling same-store traffic persisted from November 2025 through January 2026.
Yet focusing solely on offline traffic may overlook several of Academy’s omnichannel growth drivers. The brand emphasized the connection between digital customer acquisition and continued store expansion, since a growing store footprint expands BOPIS fulfillment capacity. In this context, softer visit trends may reflect channel mix shifts, positioning the company for long-term growth.
Lululemon’s fiscal Q3 results reflected a bifurcated performance, with U.S. revenue declining modestly while international growth surged. At the time, management emphasized product innovation and global expansion as strategic priorities in 2026, reinforcing the brand’s long-term growth roadmap; so while recent YoY foot traffic trends point to some domestic pressure, the strength of lululemon’s international markets serves as a stabilizing force that could reignite engagement stateside over time.
Lululemon, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and DICK’s performance shows that strategy and execution across channels matters. DICK’s investment in specialized formats, Academy’s omnichannel push, and lululemon’s international expansion, each address distinct growth levers in a challenging discretionary environment.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Over the past two years, Costco has made several moves that risked upsetting its famously loyal customer base – including raising membership fees in September 2024 and restricting food court access to members only. But visit data suggests that, rather than deterring shoppers, these changes have supported rising engagement and a broadening customer base.
The chart below shows that Costco entered 2026 with solid visit momentum. Both total and same-store visits posted healthy year-over-year gains through the back half of 2025 and into January.
That resilience aligns with recent earnings reports, which show Costco delivering consistent mid-single-digit comparable sales growth throughout 2025. By raising the “cost of commitment,” Costco may be discouraging casual or opportunistic users while deepening engagement among shoppers who do the math and shop more frequently to justify the fee.
Perhaps the clearest signal of Costco’s durable positioning lies in its evolving demographic profile. While the chain continues to over-index on affluent consumers, it is also attracting a growing cohort of younger shoppers, reflected in the chart below by a rising share of “Contemporary Households” – a young-skewing segment comprising singles, married couples without children, and non-family households. As this cohort has expanded, Costco’s overall income profile has also subtly broadened.
The persistence of this shift despite higher fees challenges the notion that price increases drive exclusivity. For many households, the fee remains a rational trade-off for reliable savings – and the broader reach gives Costco added leverage to negotiate pricing and defend margins.
Costco’s recent moves show that pricing power and scale don’t have to be trade-offs. By pairing higher fees with stricter enforcement, the company is strengthening loyalty, preserving value perception, and widening its appeal to younger households – all while keeping traffic strong. That combination leaves Costco unusually well positioned as cost pressures persist: a retailer with both the volume to command supplier leverage and a member base committed enough to sustain it.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When grocery analysts think about low prices and private label, Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl often come to mind. And while all three operate in the value-driven grocery space, they differ meaningfully in how they run their stores, position their brands, and engage consumers. An AI-based analysis of shopping behavior and audience characteristics for each chain reveals how distinct brand strategies are influencing visit patterns and could continue to shape performance heading into 2026.
One of the defining themes of the 2025 retail narrative was the consumer’s continued focus on value, and the grocery sector was no exception. Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl – all known for extensive private label assortments and competitive pricing – each experienced positive year-over-year visit growth in all four quarters of 2025. And with the exception of Lidl in Q3, they consistently outperformed the broader grocery category, underscoring the enduring pull of value in a cost-conscious environment.
While some of that growth can be attributed to Aldi, Lidl, and Trader Joe’s expanding store footprints, increases in average visits per location suggest that demand rose alongside store count. If value remains a primary motivator in 2026, these low-price grocers appear well positioned to continue capturing incremental foot traffic.
Despite shared characteristics – private label dominance and ongoing expansion – Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl take very different approaches to the in-store experience. An analysis of visit length highlights how each brand’s balance of convenience and assortment influences how shoppers interact with its stores.
Across the grocery category, 22.1% of visits in 2025 lasted under 10 minutes – a higher share than at Trader Joe’s, Aldi, or Lidl. This likely reflects the widespread availability of curbside pickup and quick in-and-out trips at traditional grocers, which isn't offered at Trader Joe’s and Lidl and is only available in a limited capacity at Aldi. 18.2% of the grocery category’s visits also lasted between 10 and 15 minutes, reflecting many just slightly longer top-up visits consistent with the high-density presence of traditional grocers in many markets.
Trader Joe’s stands out for its concentration of mid-length visits. The chain posted the highest share of visits lasting 10 to 15 minutes and 15 to 30 minutes, suggesting a highly efficient shopping experience.
This pattern aligns with Trader Joe’s small-format stores and tightly curated assortment, where seasonal items and cult-favorite products anchor clear shopping missions. Shoppers appear to arrive with a plan and move quickly through the store – reinforcing Trader Joe’s strength as a fast, focused destination.
Aldi sees a higher share of visits in the 15 to 30 minute and 30 to 45 minute ranges than the grocery category overall, edging out Lidl slightly in both buckets. This suggests that Aldi’s limited-SKU and small-format model simplifies navigation and decision-making. Meanwhile, no-frills merchandising – with products often displayed in cartons or on pallets – supports its value perception, so shoppers still spend meaningful time winding the aisles to save money.
Lidl shows the strongest skew toward longer visits, including the highest share of visits lasting over 45 minutes (11.7%), exceeding Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and the grocery category overall.
This reflects Lidl’s positioning somewhere between a traditional grocery store and a superstore. Its in-store bakery, broader meat and dairy selections, housewares, and wider assortment require more time to navigate, and its stores are typically larger than Aldi’s while remaining smaller than conventional grocers. Together, these factors encourage more comprehensive stock-up trips.
Lidl’s relatively smaller store footprint network may also play a role, pushing shoppers to consolidate trips rather than supplementing with quick, nearby visits – a behavior more common in the broader grocery category.
Small, efficient store formats are a shared advantage for Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl, but the data suggests that footprint alone doesn’t define the shopping experience. Rather, each chain’s strategic differences meaningfully shape how consumers move through their stores.
At the same time, there is strong evidence that pickup remains a powerful draw for grocery shoppers – more than one in five grocery visits last under 10 minutes. If Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl want to capture more of those short trips, expanding convenient pickup options could be an opportunity worth exploring.
Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl may share a reputation for value, but they are not competing on the same terms. Each chain’s philosophy shapes how shoppers engage with its stores – Trader Joe’s through curated discovery, Aldi through uncompromising efficiency and low prices, and Lidl through a full grocery experience at a discount. As value remains a powerful driver of grocery traffic, continued success will depend on each brand doubling down on the elements of its model that set it apart and resonate most clearly with its core shopper.
Will 2026 be another stand-out year for these grocers? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Commercial real estate’s reputation as a technology laggard is not entirely undeserved. At its core, CRE is a see-touch-and-feel industry, as much art as science. Local knowledge, intuition, and long-standing relationships continue to shape how deals get done, and that reality isn’t likely to change. Boots on the ground matter, as firsthand market insight and trust between brokers, landlords, and tenants, remain central to the business.
That context is essential when thinking about technology’s role in CRE. Tech can support and enhance decision-making, but it cannot replace the fundamentals. AI, for example, can make processes faster and more efficient, but it will not change the core of how CRE works. It will never be the tool that says, “I know a landlord who’s about to bring this space to market, and I’m getting the first look because of our relationship.”
That said, technology does have an important role to play. During COVID, when activity slowed dramatically, many organizations finally had the time to look inward and ask how technology could support faster, more resilient decision-making once the market returned. As the industry continues to invest in digital tools, three principles stand out.
Technology delivers the most value when it is guided by well-defined questions. One of the most persistent challenges in CRE’s use of technology is data fragmentation and fatigue. The industry generates enormous amounts of data, much of it spread across spreadsheets, emails, platforms, and institutional knowledge. And without knowing what you want to accomplish, that volume can quickly become overwhelming.
As shown in the chart above, for example, even when a national trend appears relatively modest, the underlying regional variation can be significant. Without a clear question guiding the analysis, it’s easy to walk away with a generic conclusion that misses where performance is actually diverging. Framed correctly, the same data becomes a tool for understanding where demand is strengthening, where it’s softening, and how strategy should differ by market.
Once the right questions are defined, the next challenge is selecting the right tools. Here again, clarity matters. There is no universal technology stack for commercial real estate. Organizations operate across different markets, asset types, and strategies, and technology needs to reflect those differences.
Thinking in terms of a recipe provides a more useful framework. The questions define the goal, and technology becomes a set of ingredients chosen to achieve it. Some tools add context, others improve precision, and others help scale insights across teams by surfacing distinct metrics and perspectives. The objective is not to find a single solution or data point that does everything, but to assemble the right combination that supports how the organization actually works.
The graph below highlights the value of layering multiple signals to understand performance. Topline visit trends offer a baseline, but adding context around visitor profile and travel patterns helps clarify what’s actually driving change. When analyzed together, these signals move analysis beyond surface-level conclusions and toward insight that can inform real decisions.
The technology best positioned to help CRE is shaped by how people actually use it. Companies that consistently learn from their users, refine inputs, expand data sets thoughtfully, and stay focused on real decision-making are far more likely to deliver lasting value.
The true test of any technology is whether it helps professionals make better decisions faster and with greater confidence while reducing risk. When insights surface quickly and are paired with on-the-ground experience and market context, data reinforces what CRE professionals already see and understand. Used this way, technology becomes a decision-support tool that facilitates de-risking and enables organizations to act at the right speed without losing sight of the fundamentals.
When analyzing mall properties, for instance, sustained weekday and weekend visit growth, paired with a broadening and increasingly family-oriented audience, can signal traffic that is more likely to endure. Identifying these deeper patterns in visit behavior helps validate assumptions, align strategy, and move forward with greater confidence, especially when paired with local market context.
As technology adoption continues, CRE leaders face an additional challenge: distinguishing between tools that meaningfully support these principles and those that generate attention without lasting value. Some technologies – like foot traffic and demographics – will become table stakes, while others will struggle to move beyond experimentation.
One area to watch is Virtual AI, including remote site visits and digital building tours. These tools may streamline early-stage evaluation and expand access, even as final decisions continue to rely on boots on the ground. Ultimately, their impact will depend on whether they reinforce the fundamentals of CRE – clear questions, practical workflows, and faster paths to confident decisions.
Since taking the reins in 2023, Gap Inc. CEO Richard Dickson has pursued a turnaround strategy aimed at reinvigorating the legacy apparel retailer, with promising results so far. Did that positive momentum carry through the end of the year? And what can location analytics reveal about the role of each of Gap Inc.’s largest banners in powering the company’s recovery?
Recent foot traffic data points to solid traffic momentum at Gap Inc. With the exception of a brief dip in December – likely driven by holiday demand pulling forward into November, along with one fewer Sunday compared to 2024 – year-over-year (YoY) company-level visits remained consistently positive over the past six months.
Throughout the period, same-store visits slightly outpaced total traffic, reflecting a more optimized fleet following the closure of several underperforming stores over the past year. Gap Inc’s robust traffic patterns also align with recent earnings commentary showing positive company-level in-store comparable sales in Q3 2025 and improving execution across Gap’s leading brands, as the company continues its strategic reset.
Looking at the company’s two largest brands shows that each is contributing to the company’s rebound in a different way. In Q4 2025, Gap slightly outperformed Old Navy on a quarterly basis, with banner-level traffic up 1.6% YoY, compared with 1.2% at Old Navy. However, Old Navy delivered more consistent monthly gains throughout the analyzed period – including in September, when Gap experienced a modest decline.
Gap’s traffic trends were notably more variable, with a stronger YoY lift in November, likely reflecting the brand’s greater sensitivity to seasonal storytelling and early holiday demand. This responsiveness was especially apparent on Black Friday, when Gap visits surged 504.4% above its 2025 daily average, compared with a still-robust but more measured 436.4% increase at Old Navy.
Old Navy’s smoother monthly performance likely reflects its role as the portfolio’s stability engine, with value-driven and replenishment trips supporting steady traffic throughout the year. Gap, on the other hand, appears to fulfill a more discretionary function, with visits responding more sharply to merchandising, marketing, and holiday timing.
Visitor behavior data for Gap and Old Navy further reinforces the two brands’ distinct positionings. Old Navy attracts longer, more frequent visits that skew toward weekdays, signaling habitual shopping tied to browsing, value-seeking, and building everyday wardrobe essentials. Gap, meanwhile, sees shorter, less frequent visits that are more likely to occur on weekends – consistent with more discretionary trips tied to seasonal needs, inspiration, or occasional splurges.
These differences between the two banners may help shape how Gap Inc. approaches its next phase of growth. In January 2026, the company leaned into “fashiontainment” with the appointment of former Paramount executive Pam Kaufman as Chief Entertainment Officer. At the same time, it has begun expanding into beauty and accessories, including the launch of Beauty Co. at 150 Old Navy locations nationwide.
As these strategies roll out, allowing them to express themselves differently across Gap and Old Navy could help maximize the strengths of each banner. At Gap, fashiontainment may lend itself to high-impact cultural moments and narrative-driven campaigns that tap into the brand’s strengths in nostalgia and storytelling – such as last year’s Better in Denim campaign featuring Katseye. At Old Navy, the same idea may be most effective through large-scale, family-friendly partnerships that reinforce its role as a dependable, mass-market destination – like the Disney collaboration launched last May. A similar dynamic could emerge in beauty, with Old Navy’s Beauty Co. supporting frequent, routine visits, and beauty at Gap reinforcing fashion authority and cultural relevance rather than driving habit.
For more insights into the consumer patterns shaping retail strategy, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The home improvement space has faced sustained pressure from macroeconomic headwinds – including persistent inflation and a cooling housing market – prompting many consumers to delay major projects and defer big-ticket purchases. But is a category turnaround in the works? An AI-powered foot traffic analysis of the sector’s largest players – The Home Depot and Lowe’s – offers insight into whether momentum has shifted and a period of growth is on the horizon.
Both The Home Depot and Lowe's reported sales growth alongside an uptick in big-ticket purchases in fiscal Q3 2025, indicating that consumers were investing in significant upgrades despite many bigger renovations remaining on the back-burner. And the latest foot traffic data suggests that this momentum likely carried forward into the subsequent months.
In November 2025, both chains saw visit and same-store visit growth of roughly 3% year-over-year (YoY) – a sign of meaningful Black Friday traffic and a healthy start to the holiday shopping season.
And while December 2025 saw modest visit gaps, these likely stemmed in part from tough YoY comparisons to December 2024’s storm-related demand.
Traffic to both chains rebounded in the new year, with preparations ahead of Storm Fern likely accounting for some of January 2026’s YoY visit gains.
Overall, the past several months of foot traffic data paint a picture of continued positive momentum for The Home Depot and Lowe’s through fiscal Q4.
Large-scale projects may not yet be at hoped-for levels, but the data suggests consumers are still investing in their homes. And with mortgage rates trending lower, housing activity showing early signs of a turnaround, and the potential for abundant home equity to fund renovations, the home improvement sector appears poised for continued growth.
Will the home improvement space build on its successes in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
