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St. Patrick’s Day, which falls each year on March 17th, is a day for bar crawls, green makeup, and drinks with friends. Cities like New York and Chicago host major celebrations, drawing big crowds to their downtown areas. And bars and pubs fill up with revelers eager to mark the occasion with a green cocktail or a taste of corned beef and cabbage.
There’s plenty of joy to go around – and towns across the country are getting in on the St. Paddy’s Day action with parades and family-friendly events. What kind of a lift do traditional St. Patrick’s Day destinations like bars and pubs get on the big day? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the occasion?
Unsurprisingly, bars and pubs get major boosts on the week of St. Patrick’s Day, as club hoppers and other celebrants converge on their local watering holes for drinks and fun. Chains like The Brass Tap and Bar Louie offer special deals and parties, with everything from green beer to Irish whiskey. And on the week of March 11th, 2024, visits to the two chains were up 15.7% and 21.1%, respectively, compared to an early October baseline – slightly outpacing even the busy Christmas season.
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But St. Patrick’s Day isn’t just for bar crawling. And although the festivities are usually associated with major metropolises like New York City and Chicago, cities like Myrtle Beach, SC, San Antonio, TX. Indianapolis, IN, and Savannah, GA also come to life mid-March with parades and parties rivaling those of their bigger counterparts.
On Saturday, March 16th 2024 at 11:00 A.M., San Antonio, TX kicked off its annual St. Patrick’s Day festivities with the traditional dyeing of the San Antonio River. Throughout the weekend, parades and celebrations drew crowds to the city’s famed River Walk – and while bars and clubs undoubtedly benefited from the excitement, they weren’t the only ones to do so. San Antonio’s Shops at Rivercenter enjoyed its busiest day since 2019, drawing 61.4% more foot traffic on March 16th than on an average Saturday this year.
Savannah, GA, North Myrtle Beach, SC, and Indianapolis, IN also hosted big St. Patrick’s Day events, bringing foot traffic – and business – to local retailers. For Savannah, March 16th, 2024 marked the 200th anniversary of the city’s famous St. Patrick’s Day Parade, and the town was positively booming. City Market, the iconic shopping corridor located in the heart of Savannah’s Historic District, was the most crowded it’s been since at least January 2023, with March 17th 2023 (the day of last year’s parade) coming in a close second.
Malls and shopping districts weren’t the only places to get significant leprechaun-inspired visit bumps. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and eateries located in proximity to the festivities also reaped the benefits of the hubbub, as parade-goers likely dropped in to snag some essentials or fuel up for the long day.
And it isn’t just locals turning out for all these events. A look at hotel foot traffic patterns nationwide shows that the week of St. Patrick’s Day kicks off the hospitality industry’s spring season – with cities hosting special events seeing even more significant visit spikes. During the week of March 11th, 2024, hotel venues in the analyzed cities drew many more visits than usual, showcasing the power of St. Paddy’s Day to supercharge the tourism sector.
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St. Patrick’s Day is about a lot more than bars and pubs. And in recent years, the popular green-themed holiday has emerged as an important driver of tourism and retail activity across the U.S.
What other local celebrations are fueling foot traffic spikes in cities nationwide? Does your city know the impact of location celebrations on local businesses? Are local businesses prepared for the increase in foot traffic and revenue opportunities during local celebrations?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
JOANN recently announced that it had filed for bankruptcy, and the company expects to go private as early as next month. Can the retailer still make a comeback? We dove into the data to find out.
JOANN went public in March 2021 – at the height of the pandemic – following a particularly strong 2020. The COVID-era crafting boom had put the company on a growth trajectory, with visits during the first year of the pandemic barely lower than in 2019 despite the lockdowns and movement restrictions. But as the country reopened and people’s schedules filled back up – leaving less time for sewing and knitting – visits began to fall. Foot traffic in 2021 was lower than in 2020, and by 2022, overall visits to the chain were 11.8% lower than they had been in 2019
But now, recent foot traffic data indicates that demand for fabric-related crafting supplies may be rebounding. In 2023, visits to the chain grew relative to 2022 and the visit gap relative to 2019 narrowed. Sewing appears to be making a comeback, with both millennials and Gen-Z exhibiting a newfound interest in the craft. And although the resurgence of interest in fiber arts was not strong enough to prevent JOANN’s recent bankruptcy filing, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the company should not be written off just yet.
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According to C.F.O. Scott Sekella, 95% of JOANN’s stores are cash-flow positive. The company is also committed to maintaining usual operations during the court-supervised procedure. And this year as well – especially since the end of early 2024’s cold spell – JOANN’s year-over-year (YoY) visits have trended positive, even outperforming YoY foot traffic to other leading crafting retailers.
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The unique nature of JOANN’s products give the company’s brick-and-mortar stores an advantage over digital counterparts: Crafters like to get a feel for the material before purchasing, and amateur DIY-ers who visit physical stores can consult with expert salespeople to receive guidance for ongoing projects. And although foot traffic to JOANN’s stores is not what it was at the height of the pandemic, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the brand is still serving many committed sewers and knitters who are choosing to shop in-person. So how can JOANN maintain its store fleet while optimizing in-store operations?
Analyzing the change in hourly visits between 2022 and 2023 reveals that the YoY growth is not evenly distributed across dayparts. Morning and early afternoon visits saw modest increases, but traffic growth really ramped up in the afternoon and evening – peaking between 6:00 and 6:59 PM – and visits actually decreased between 7:00 and 8:59 PM. Should the company try to streamline its logistics without sacrificing its large store fleet, JOANN may focus its staffing and operational costs on the dayparts with the most growth potential and reduce expenditure during the less popular timeslots.
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Despite the crafting retailer’s current rough patch, location intelligence suggests that the company is a strong contender for a post-bankruptcy comeback. And the positive YoY trends also indicate that – despite the ongoing headwinds and contraction in discretionary spending – there is still demand for hobby-driven retail in 2024.
How will the bankruptcy proceedings impact foot traffic to JOANN? What does the rest of 2024 hold for the brand?
Check in with our blog at placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
With rumors swirling of a potential Panera Bread IPO in 2024, we dove into the data to find out how the St. Louis, Missouri-based company is performing – and what sets Panera apart from its competition.
Panera Bread has been on a growth spurt recently, with monthly visits over the past 12 months consistently exceeding 2022/2023 levels. Part of the traffic increase may be due to the brand’s larger store fleet – Panera expanded into urban and non-traditional markets with small-format locations focused on pick-up and digital ordering. And the company is not resting on its laurels, with Panera revamping its menu to compete more directly with meal-focussed fast casual concepts.
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Because Panera straddles the line of coffee QSR and fast-casual lunch spot, there is no one dining chain that directly competes with Panera on all fronts. Instead, Panera plays a unique role in the QSR/fast casual landscape: The chain has a strong café feel, with the company’s “Sip Club” membership program seems specifically designed to appeal to customers looking for frequent coffee fixes. But Panera also offers more substantial fare, and the upcoming menu overhaul promises to add even more hearty salads and affordable sandwiches to its array of options.
The new menu may be aimed towards attracting more budget-conscious diners thanks to a focus on larger portions and the addition of several items priced at under $10. Some speculate that the changes are also part of the company’s broader refocusing towards the lunchtime daypart. Comparing Panera to Starbucks, which competes with Panera on the coffee shop and affordable foods front, and to Sweetgreen, a strong presence in the fast-casual lunch market, can shed light on Panera’s role within the increasingly competitive dining landscape.
Panera’s hourly visitation pattern highlights its unique place within the wider QSR-fast casual landscape. Like Sweetgreen, Panera experiences a lunchtime foot traffic rush – 30.8% of daily visits to the chain take place between 12 PM and 2 PM. But Panera also receives almost a third of its visits before noon – 30.2% of visits to the chain take between 6 AM and 11 AM, compared to just 13.2% of visits to Sweetgreen. Between 9 AM and 11 AM, Panera’s hourly visit share of 20.8% is almost on par with Starbucks’ 25.3%. (The small number of morning Sweetgreen visits is likely also driven by a difference in opening hours, with most Sweetgreen locations only opening at around 10:30 AM).
Meanwhile, Panera also seems to be a strong dinner contender. Although Panera’s evening performance may not be quite as strong as Sweetgreen’s, the St. Louis-based dining chain still sees 17.3% of its daily visits between 6 PM and 8 PM – almost double Starbucks’ 9.8.%.
These hourly visitation patterns indicate that while a significant contingent of Panera patrons treat the chain as their go-to coffee shop, many others tend to consider Panera as a lunch or early dinner destination.
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Although analyzing hourly visitation patterns highlight similarities between Panera and Sweetgreen, focusing on the three chains’ visitor bases reveals many more similarities between Starbucks and Panera.
The median HHIs in Panera and Starbucks’ trade areas stand at $79.2K/year and $76.4K/year, respectively. Around 34% of both chains’ trade areas consist of non-family and one-person households and 28% consist of households with children. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen tends to attract a much larger share of affluent singles – 42.9% of households in Sweetgreen’s trade area are non-family and one person households, and the salad and grain-bowl focused chain has a trade area median HHI stands at $102K/year.
It seems, then, that although Panera appears to compete with Sweetgreen for the lunch rush – and to a lesser extent, for dinner visits as well – the two brands’ audience bases are substantially different. On the other hand, Panera’s visitor base seems to overlap significantly with that of Starbucks – which may explain Panera’s move towards enhanced portion sizes and affordable meal options, which may set it even further apart from the Seattle-based coffee giant.
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Panera Bread is one of 2024’s most anticipated IPOs – and location intelligence metrics suggest that the buzz is well substantiated.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Nowruz took place on March 20 this year, and this celebration of the spring equinox dates back over three thousand years. Westwood Blvd, just south of UCLA, is home to a profusion of Persian restaurants, markets, bookstores, and ice-cream stores with flavors not found in your typical Baskin-Robbins. Hence, the affectionate moniker Tehrangeles for this little pocket where an Iranian diaspora has settled.
Restaurants like Shamshiri Grill, with its juicy beef koobideh kebab broiled to perfection and tomatoes that burst in your mouth, proves to be a hit with a wide cross-section of Angelenos. For dessert, be sure to stop at nearby Saffron & Rose for their namesake flavors or Mashti Malone’s for a uniquely Persian faloodeh shirazi, similar to a rosewater sorbet, topped with cherry sauce and rice starch vermicelli.
There are also numerous Persian markets in the area should you want to buy groceries and try cooking yourself. Jordan Market, Tehran Market, and Star Market all see over half their clientele come from the segment of Educated Urbanites.
If you’d like to simultaneously celebrate Women’s History Month and buy yourself a little something for the New Year, then look no further than Cult Gaia, just a short drive away in West Hollywood. Founded by Jasmin Larian Hekmat in 2012, its Ark bag reached cult status within just a few years. Oozing a vacation-ready vibe and cool-girl aesthetic, the LA-based designer has most recently opened up a new store on the ritzy island of St. Barths. While the majority of visits to the West Hollywood store come from metro LA, there are still quite a few fans coming from further afield to shop.
Family Dollar’s parent company Dollar Tree recently announced plans to dramatically rightsize the discount chain’s store fleet, with 600 stores slated for closure in 2024 and more to follow in upcoming years for a total of almost 1000 closures. We dove into the location intelligence for Family Dollar and three other leading value-forward retailers to understand which chain stands to benefit most from Family Dollar’s contraction.
Dollar Tree’s plans to close almost 1000 Family Dollar stores did not surprise retail analysts. Discount & Dollar Stores have been on the rise in recent years, driven in part by significant expansions – visits to the industry up 25.4% in Q1 2023 and up 55.8% in Q4 2023 relative to pre-pandemic Q1 2019. But this growth seems to have bypassed Family Dollar. Q1 2023 visits to the brand were up just 0.8% and traffic during the critical holiday-driven Q4 2023 was up just 9.8% since Q1 2019.
Meanwhile, the eponymous banner of Family Dollar’s parent company Dollar Tree outperformed the wider industry during the same period, with a 28.4% increase in Q1 2023 visits and a 72.1% increase in Q4 2023 visits relative to a Q1 2019 baseline.
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The Discount & Dollar Store space includes major players like Dollar General and the Dollar Tree banner that can fill the voids left by shuttering Family Dollar Venues. Walmart also may step into some of the newly created gaps. Analyzing the demographic and psychographic composition of the trade areas of these four chains – Family Dollar, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Walmart – may reveal the chain(s) best positioned to cater to Family Dollar’s current visitor base.
Most people have set daily shopping habits, and chains will likely have more success vying for Family Dollar’s visitor base if they can accommodate the current visitation patterns of Family Dollar shoppers.
Family Dollar and Dollar General respectively receive 37.0% and 37.9% of their daily visits between the hours of 5:00 PM and 8:59 PM. Meanwhile, only 31.2% of Dollar Tree’s visitors and 34.3% of Walmart visitors visited those chains in the late afternoon and evening. The similarities between Dollar General and Family Dollar’s visitation patterns may mean that Dollar General’s staffing and opening schedule is suited to handle the influx of former Family Dollar visitors without making these visitors modify their current shopping behavior.
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Analyzing the four chains by trade area median household income (HHI) also shows that Family Dollar is closer to Dollar General than to Walmart or Dollar Tree – but the data also reveals that Family Dollar serves a distinct demographic base. The chain has a potential market median HHI of $62.1K and a captured market median HHI of $48.3K – in both cases, the lowest trade area median HHI of the four chains analyzed.
Potential market analysis weighs the Census Block Groups (CBG) making up a trade area according to the number of residents in each CBG. The low median HHI in Family Dollar’s potential market means that the chain’s venues tend to be located in lower-income areas compared to the other chains’ store fleets.
Captured market median HHI reflects the median HHI in the CBGs making up a trade area weighted according to the number of visits to the chain from each CBG. And comparing the four chains indicates that the gap between Family Dollar and the other three chains is even larger when looking at the captured market median HHI, with Family Dollar serving the lowest income households within its potential market.
Still, Dollar General’s trade area median HHI is closest to that of Family Dollar – although Family Dollar’s trade area median HHI is still significantly lower than that of Dollar General – which could mean that Dollar General will be most attractive to Family Dollar’s former visitors.
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But looking at other metrics suggests differences in household composition between Family Dollar and Dollar General. Although the potential market share of households with children is similar for the two chains, Family Dollar’s captured market share is higher while Dollar General’s captured market share of households with children is lower.
Family Dollar’s popularity among lower-income households with children may explain why the chain has been struggling in recent years, as this demographic has been particularly hard-hit by the recent economic headwinds. And this distinct demographic base may also mean that Dollar General might want to make some merchandising, pricing, or marketing adjustments to best serve Family Dollar’s former visitors.
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Although the demographic composition of Family Dollar’s trade areas sets the chain’s visitor base apart, diving into the psychographic segmentation of the chain’s captured and potential market highlights similarities with other value-forward retailers.
All four chains analyzed seem particularly popular with rural audiences – specifically with the Rural Average Income and Rural Low Income segments as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset. (Dollar General and Walmart also see a disproportionate number of visits from the Rural High Income segment within their potential markets.) So some of Family Dollar’s rural shoppers may already be visiting Walmart or Discount & Dollar Stores – and these other retailers may choose to open in areas where Family Dollar is closing and where no other discounter currently operates.
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The massive rightsizing of Family Dollar’s store fleet creates major opportunities for other value-driven retailers to expand their reach. Who will end up benefiting most from these shifts?
Check in with placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Last year’s retail vibe was nothing if not experiential. Inflation led consumers to trade down and cut back on discretionary spending – but people still sought out fun, affordable venues to meet up with friends and let off some steam.
So with 2023 firmly in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc., owner of eatertainment chain Dave & Buster's, and – since 2022 – Main Event Entertainment. How did the company’s two brands fare in the final months of 2023 and at the start of 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
Dave & Buster’s, the sports bar arcade that invites harried grown-ups to cast aside their worries and “unlearn adulthood”, is thriving. With some 160 venues across 42 states, Dave and Buster’s offers the most tightly-wound consumers an inexpensive escape from real life – someplace they can unwind with friends over a beer, some mouthwatering shareables, and a bit of friendly skee-ball.
Over the past several years, Dave & Buster’s has grown its store count, and in 2022 broadened its portfolio with Main Event Entertainment – the family-oriented eatertainment concept that pairs arcade games with larger format activities such as laser tag and bowling. And since November 2023, both brands have sustained mainly positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, disrupted only by January 2024’s inclement weather.
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Main Event Entertainment’s purchase by Dave & Buster’s appears to have been a natural move on the company’s part. Overlaying foot traffic data with demographics from STI’s PopStats reveals that the two chains’ comparable offerings attract customers with similar income profiles: In 2023, Dave & Buster’s’ and Main Event’s captured markets featured median household incomes (HHIs) of $67.3K and $67.6K, respectively – just under the nationwide baseline of $69.5K.
But the acquisition of Main Event has also allowed Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. to broaden its visitor base. Both of the company’s brands attract plenty of singles and families with children. But while Dave & Buster’s young-adult-oriented vibe holds special appeal for people living on their own, Main Event’s child-friendly activities make it a particularly attractive destination for parental households. Together, the two chains offer something for everyone – cementing the company’s role as an eatertainment leader.
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Dave & Buster’s and Main Event also enjoy similar weekly visitation patterns. Unsurprisingly, the two chains are busiest on Saturdays, followed by Sundays and Fridays, and quieter during the rest of the week. But both brands have also found creative ways to boost weekday visits. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50%-off deal, letting customers play their favorite games at half the price – and fueling a significant midweek foot traffic spike. Main Event Entertainment, for its part, draws weekday crowds on Mondays with an afternoon all–you-can-play special.
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Everybody needs to let their hair down sometimes – and with Spring Break right around the corner, both Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are building momentum with seasonal specials aimed at making their offerings even more affordable.
For both chains, March is an important milestone – in 2023, Dave & Buster’s and Main Event drew 41.0% and 82.9% more traffic during the week of March 13th, respectively, than they did, on average, throughout the rest of year. And if recent visit trends are any indication, the two brands appear poised to enjoy a healthy Spring Break and a strong rest of 2024.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, follow Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
