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Every year in March and early April, thousands of young people descend on Florida beaches to soak up some sun, kick back with friends, and have a good time. But while the influx of revelers can be a boon to local businesses, some municipalities are pushing back against the mayhem. This year, Miami Beach famously announced its intention to “break up” with spring break (“It’s not us, it’s you”) – instituting a series of restrictive measures, from curfews to elevated parking fees, designed to temper the crowds.
But what’s happening on the ground? How did this year’s spring break impact local businesses in key Florida destinations like Miami, Key West, Panama City Beach, and Daytona Beach? Which retail segments continued to benefit from the excitement – and who were the visitors driving foot traffic to their venues?
Florida is home to the most-searched spring break destinations in the United States. And perhaps thanks to the influx of vacationers, location intelligence shows that Quick-Service Restaurants (QSR) and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Florida spring break hotspots enjoy significant annual visit boosts during March and early April.
The extent of the seasonal boost varies between CBSAs – and though this year’s traffic spikes were slightly lower than last year’s bumps, the two dining segments continued to benefit strongly from spring break-fueled visit bumps in 2024.
Visits to QSR & Fast-Food venues and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Panama City – known as the spring break capital of the world – were up 57.6% and 56.9%, respectively, during the week of March 11th 2024, compared to an early January 2023 baseline. This represents a minor decline from the comparable period last year (the week of March 13th, 2023), when visits were up a respective 59.2% and 68.6%.
QSR and coffee and breakfast chains in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Key West, and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach CBSAs also experienced significant visit spikes during the week of March 11th, 2024. Though the March foot traffic increases in these CBSAs were smaller than those seen in Panama City, they were nearly on par with the visit bumps seen in the comparable period of 2023.
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Who are the visitors driving this spring break dining activity? Drilling down into the data for leading Panama City QSR and coffee chains shows that college student influxes are likely a major contributing factor.
In July 2023 – during Panama City’s peak summer season – the captured markets of local Whataburger, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Chick-fil-A locations were nearly devoid of STI: Landscape’s “Collegian” segment – a category encompassing currently-enrolled college students. But in March 2024, the share of this segment in the brands’ captured markets skyrocketed.
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Analyzing the audiences of local Panama City resorts reveals a similar pattern. During the month of July, the captured markets of SpringHill Suites and Holiday Inn Resort – two venues popular among spring breakers – included miniscule shares of Collegians. But in March, the share of college students in the resorts’ captured markets jumped to 13.8% and 10.0%, respectively – highlighting the role of undergrads in driving hotel visits during this period.
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Spring break is party time – and Florida has traditionally been at the center of it all.
How will 2024 spring break continue to unfold this year in the Sunshine State? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the excitement?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
DC residents and businesses have been on tenterhooks ever since plans were announced in December 2023 to move the Caps and Wizards to Potomac Yard in Alexandria, VA. Original plans called for a new Wizards practice facility, a separate performing arts center, a media studio, new hotels, a convention center, housing and shopping. Meanwhile, DC mayor Muriel Bowser worked furiously to keep the teams, eventually putting together a $500 million+ deal that was officially approved in the last week, so that the teams would stay in the District until “at least 2050.” That is good news for those businesses by Gallery Place/Chinatown, and the teams can keep the Washington moniker, as opposed to potentially being the “National Landing” teams were they to have moved to the Potomac Yard area.
Migration to the Mountain States, named for the sprawling Rocky Mountain range that runs through the region, has been on an upward trend in recent years. And one state in particular – Utah – has received an impressive influx of new residents.
Which areas are experiencing the most growth? And what is driving migration to the Beehive State? We take a closer look.
Utah, with its iconic national parks and burgeoning tech industry, is growing fast. According to Placer.ai’s Migration Trends Report, Utah experienced an 5.5% rise in population between January 2020 and January 2024, partially driven by inbound domestic migration: 1.8% of the state’s January 2024 population moved in between January 2020 and January 2024.
Utah has a relatively young population – the median age in Utah (according to the 2021 ACS 5-Year Projection dataset) is 31. But relocators to the state seem to be coming from older states – the weighted median age in the states of origins of newcomers moving to Utah over the past four years was 38.
But although Utah’s median age is lower than the median age in the states of origin, the median HHI in the Beehive State is higher than in its feeder states. Between January 2020 and January 2024, the weighted median HHI in the states feeding migration to Utah was $71K/year, lower than the Utah median of $79K/year (although higher than the national average of $69.0K/year).
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Although Utah as a whole has seen positive net migration over the past four years, the new residents are not evenly distributed across the state’s major metropolitan areas. Inbound domestic migration was particularly strong in the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), with both states also seeing significant increases in their population (10.7% and 5.1%, respectively) over the past four years. But during the same period, the migrated share of the population of Utah’s largest CBSA – Salt Lake City – has declined, and the overall population in the Salt Lake City CBSA grew by just 1.0%. So what is driving migration to Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield?
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January 2020 to January 2024 migration data reveals that relocators to Provo and Ogden come from CBSAs with a lower median age and HHI compared to those moving to Salt Lake City: Newcomers to the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs came from CBSAs with a weighted median HHI of $73K and $72K, respectively, compared to a $75K median HHI for CBSAs feeding migration to the Salt Lake City CBSA. And the weighted median age in the CBSAs of origin for Provo-Orem and Ogden Clearfield was 25 and 32, respectively, compared to 33 in the CBSAs of origin for Salt Lake City.
The movement of younger people from lower-HHI areas to these CBSAs may indicate that many of those relocating to Utah to benefit from the state’s robust economy are specifically choosing the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield metro areas.
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Niche’s Neighborhood Grades – available in the Placer.ai Marketplace – assigns grades to various types of regions based on a variety of factors, including job opportunities. And comparing the Niche rating for “Jobs” assigned to Utah’s three largest CBSAs with the aggregate “Jobs” grade assigned to the CBSAs of origin also suggests that Provo and Ogden’s economic opportunities are driving migration to these smaller metro areas.
All three Utah CBSAs analyzed received a higher “Jobs” grade than their CBSAs of origin – indicating that the employment opportunities in all three metro areas are likely drawing newcomers. But while Salt Lake City only got a “B+” in “Jobs” – just one grade up from the aggregate grade assigned to its areas of origin – Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield got a “Jobs” grade of “A-”, or two notches up from the “Jobs” grade in their CBSAs of origin. The highly robust job markets in these smaller CBSAs may explain why newcomers seem to prefer Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield to Salt Lake City.
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Utah’s population growth makes it one of the most exciting states to watch, and the state’s promising employment opportunities seems to be a major draw for newcomers to the state.
Will Utah continue to experience population growth?
Visit placer.ai to keep up with the latest migration trends.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
In a world where convenience is key and online shopping reigns supreme, many brands are turning to experiential retail to draw visitors into brick-and-mortar stores. We take a look at three companies with different types of experiential offerings – Michaels, DICK’S, and Lowe’s Home Improvement – to understand what experiential retail can look like in 2024.
Some retailers are encouraging consumers to engage fully in their brand by dedicating entire brick-and-mortar venues entirely to immersive experience. Sporting goods brands in particular, including Lululemon with its yoga studios and Nike and its training studios, have employed this strategy to directly engage with their core audience. And perhaps the best example of this is the DICK’S House of Sport concept, launched in 2021 by sporting goods retailer DICK’S.
DICK’S currently operates 12 House of Sports locations where visitors can repair their bikes, pick out a golf club, use a climbing wall or batting cage. The concept has been highly successful, especially as more people engage in some form of recreational sports or fitness activities, and the chain is looking to add at least 100 more of these experiential stores in the next five years.
Quarterly foot traffic patterns suggest that the new locations will be met with enthusiasm. Visits to the three longest-running House of Sports stores in Q4 2023 were 7.2% higher than they were in Q4 2022, while visits to DICK’S Sporting Goods stores nationwide were 2.3% lower for the same period. Psychographic data also reveals that House of Sport visitors also tend to be slightly older and more established than visitors to DICK’S nationwide – and this older audience may be more inclined to spend more than their younger counterparts.
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By creating an immersive athletic experience that taps into the growing popularity of personal fitness, House of Sport can continue to draw in visitors and foster community – and serve as a model for other sporting goods retailers looking to expand their experiential offerings.
Retailers who don’t want to devote an entire location to their experiential offering can also leverage their regular venues to offer visitors hands-on engagement with their products on certain days or time slots. Rising costs have led more people than ever to turn to DIY – and meeting that demand, leading home improvement retailer Lowe’s has introduced a DIY workshop on Saturdays and Sundays at 100 locations across the country. Visitors heading to participating Lowe’s stores will be able to participate in workshop stations and take advantage of all-day demos – with no registration required. The company also runs a family-friendly Weekending at Lowe’s program, which allows visitors to register to free workshops focused on child-friendly activities, such as creating a butterfly biome or a tabletop basketball game
Providing people with a hands-on, practical approach to home repairs may help Lowe’s expand its customer base as more people embrace DIY concepts. Participants in the DIY workshops may feel more confident in tackling new projects at home. They are also more likely to choose Lowe’s products due to familiarity with the store and its offerings — a win for the company.
Comparing year-over-year (YoY) visits at Lowe’s locations with DIY workshops to the foot traffic performance of the chain as a whole indicates that the DIY venue, while experiencing the effects of the ongoing retail headwinds, are managing to perform better than Lowe’s stores overall. And analyzing locations using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lowe’s DIY stores are particularly popular among rural segments, with more "Rural Average Income" and "Rural Low Income" segments in their captured markets than their potential market*.
*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
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Lowe’s can harness this data if it seeks to expand the DIY concept further to help it capitalize on its success among rural audiences – and other retailers can take note of the demand for hands-on workshops from this segment.
A third model for experiential retail empowers the customer to take the reins and decide when to schedule the in-store event – and who to add to the guest list. Craft chain Michaels, which has long emphasized child-friendly experiences like summer camps and free classes, recently introduced store-hosted birthday parties for kids up to age 13.
Demographic data from both potential and captured trade areas suggest that this focus on kids activities is succeeding in attracting the family households in its trade area. Michaels attracts a larger share of married couples with children in its captured market than in its potential market, and has a captured market household size of 2.6, slightly larger than its potential market household size. The share of households in Experian: Mosaic’s “Suburban Style,” “Flourishing Families”, and “Family Union” segments were also all higher in Michaels captured market than in its potential market.
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Michael’s seems to be positioning itself as a one-stop shop for crafters of all ages, and focusing on children’s events may help the chain attract more family segments to its stores. This serves as a reminder of the draw that quality children’s entertainment can provide and offers a blueprint for retailers wishing to attract more families to their locations.
These three chains prove that there are plenty of ways to attract people into brick-and-mortar stores. By offering workshops, events, and in-store attractions, the three chains are building brand awareness and increasing their foot traffic.
Will experiential retail continue to dominate in 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog to stay up-to-date on the latest retail trends.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
One of the major stories of 2023 was the rise in food prices, with costs up roughly 25% since 2020 – and the increasing costs of food and other goods have helped discount grocers thrive.
We checked back in with two grocery chains known for their bargain prices and private labels – Aldi and Lidl – to see how they’re doing.
Aldi offers prices that rival those of discount grocers, making it a major player in the discount grocery segment. And these attractive prices have helped the company see significant visit growth over the past few years. Year-over-year (YoY) monthly visits to Aldi were up throughout 2023 and into 2024, with some of the growth due to the chain’s aggressive expansion. And the company plans to grow even further – Aldi has announced plans to open another 800 stores over the next few years.
Lidl – another German-based grocer – opened its first location in Virginia in 2017. The chain currently has around 170 locations in the country, primarily on the East Coast, and is also expanding – albeit at a slower pace. Between February 2023 and February 2024, YoY visits to Lidl were up almost every month with only a slight dip in January 2024 – perhaps due to the unseasonal cold – a promising sign for the discount grocer as more consumers than ever choose low-cost food options.
Although both Lidl and Aldi are German-owned discount grocers, examining the demographics for the two brands' trade areas nationwide sheds light on the differences between the two chain’s consumer bases.
Analyzing the trade area median HHI reveals that Lidl attracts a higher-income clientele than Aldi: The median household income (HHI) in Aldi’s trade area was slightly lower than the the nationwide median, with the median HHI in the chain’s captured market even lower than the median HHI in its potential market. This indicates that Aldi locates its stores in areas that are accessible to the average consumer and succeeds in attracting also the slightly lower income segments within its potential trade area.
Meanwhile, Lidl’s potential market median HHI stood at $78.8K/year in 2023, and the median HHI in its captured market was even higher – $88.1K/year – indicating that Lidl stores are located in more affluent areas, and that the company caters to the wealthier households within those neighborhoods.
The share of households with children in Aldi’s potential and captured market was also almost identical to the nationwide average – indicating once again Aldi’s success in reaching the average U.S. grocery shopper. Lidl, on the other hand, saw more households with children in both its captured and potential markets, with the share of households with children in its captured market around two percentage points higher than the share of households with children nationwide. So while Aldi and Lidl do share some similarities in terms of origins, preference for private label, and pricing, the trade area analysis points to major differences between the two chains’ audiences.
*A chain or venue’s potential market refers to the people that reside in its trade area, based on the business’ True Trade Area and weighted by census block group (CBG) within the trade area according to the size of its population. Captured markets represent the population that visits the business in practice, and the data is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question.
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Diving into the psychographic data for Aldi and Lidl adds another dimension to the trends revealed by the demographic data. While both brands are popular among suburban audiences – Aldi tends to attract a more blue-collar customer, while Lidl is frequented by a wealthier suburban segment. The share of visitors falling into the “Small Town Low Income” category was 7.5% for Aldi compared to 0.9% for Lidl. Conversely, Lidl saw 16.7% of its visitors falling into the “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment, while Aldi had 10.6% of its consumers in that category.
And while Aldi and Lidl have a hold on different suburban segments, the chains’ expansion strategies seem geared to grow each chain’s reach outside the other’s orbit. Lidl has been opening stores in big cities along the East Coast, including New York City’s tony Chelsea neighborhood, perhaps in a bid to reach more of the wealthier customers that favor the brand. Aldi, meanwhile, recently acquired grocery chains Winn-Dixie and Southeast Grocers, brands that typically attract a more price-sensitive consumer. This acquisition will significantly expand Aldi’s presence and will likely appeal to value-oriented shoppers, a segment already receptive to its offerings.
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The past few years have seen the grocery space adapting to an increasingly value-oriented consumer, and Aldi and Lidl have benefitted from this shift. As inflation cools and both companies expand their footprints, will they continue on their upward trajectory?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Since COVID, millions of Americans have relocated from major population centers in California, New York, and Illinois (among others) to other regions of the country. Whether in search of job opportunities, affordable housing, or simply a change of scenery, thousands of people have decamped to places like Tampa, Florida, Bozeman, Montana, and Portland, Maine. And the great state of Texas – with its wide open spaces and relatively affordable cost of living – has emerged as a favored destination.
So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to explore domestic migration trends in the Lone Star State. How much has the population of Texas grown as a result of domestic migration over the past several years – and which metro areas (CBSAs) are attracting new residents? Are people moving to major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, or are they heading out to the suburbs?
Between December 2019 and December 2023, Texas’ population grew by 4.3% – with nearly a third of this increase driven by new residents hailing from elsewhere in the U.S.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, many of these new arrivals made a bee-line to Texas’ four most populous metropolitan areas – Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land. During this time period, each of these CBSAs experienced positive net migration (meaning that more people moved to these areas than away from them) ranging from 0.4% to 3.4%.
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But a deeper analysis of foot traffic trends reveals that, even as the CBSAs as a whole added new residents, the primary cities anchoring the CBSAs often lost more domestic migrants than they gained. Austin proper lost 6.1% of its population to relocation, while Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio lost 4.2%, 3.9%, and 3.2%, respectively. Only Fort Worth – Texas’ fifth-most-populous city – experienced positive net migration over the past four years.
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Why are major metropolitan areas seeing population influxes, even as their central urban hubs experience outflows? Drilling down even deeper into zip-code level location intelligence provides a striking snapshot of what’s actually happening on the ground.
In all four CBSAs, zip codes belonging to the metro area’s flagship city were more likely to experience negative net migration – while those in further-away suburbs and towns were more likely to see positive inflow.
The relative growth experienced by Fort Worth can be understood against this backdrop: Fort Worth may be one of Texas’ biggest cities, but it is smaller – and less expensive – than Dallas, which dominates the metro area.
Suburban life offers residents many of the benefits of proximity to major urban centers, without some of the drawbacks – like smaller homes. And with more Americans free today to live further away from the office, many appear to be choosing suburban chill over big-city hassle.
Home to the Alamo, a premier state fair, and arguably one of the cultiest grocery chains in the country (H-E-B, of course), Texas has become a key destination for Americans seeking greener (and cheaper) pastures. And though major metropolitan centers in the Lone Star State have seen significant positive net migration over the past four years – much of that growth has taken place outside of the state’s biggest cities.
How will Texas’ population continue to evolve over the next months and years? Will big cities make a comeback – or are suburbs and smaller towns poised to remain the main drivers of growth?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven domestic migration analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
